The Role of Commercial Banks in Agricultural Development in Nigeria (1986-2010)

8/10/2019 The Role of Commercial Banks in Agricultural Development in Nigeria (1986-2010)

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TITLE PAGETHE ROLE OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

IN NIGERIA: 1986-2010

BYOKAFOR ONYINYECHUKWU REG NO: EC!200"!#2$ A PRO%ECTSUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE RE&UIREMENT FOR

THE AWARD OF BACHELOR OF SCIENCE'BS() DEGREE IN ECONOMICS

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT AND SOCIALSCIENCES

CARITAS UNIVERSITY AMOR%I-NIKE* EMENE* ENUGU

AUGUST 201


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2CERTIFICATION I certify that this research was carried out by Oafor O!yi!yechuwu "e#e! Re$No%&EC'200(')2* of the de+art,e!t of Eco!o,ics- Caritas U!i.ersity A,or/iNie- E,e!e%

B+,, P., O/3/45 D+.

S,735,

Barr. Peter Onwudinjo Date

H+ 5 D+,./.

Proff. C. C. Umeh Date

D+/ 5 F+(;.< 5 S5(3+; S(3/(

External Examiner Date


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DEDICATION

T=3 5,> 3 3(+. .5 G5 A;3?=.< 5, H3 373/ ;57 +/ ,(3.=,5?=5. < .+< 3/ .= /37,3.+5, 5, .=3, ;57 +/ 5,. 5, ++;3.< (+.35/To ,y brother Iuchuwu- ideofor- Chi!edu a!d ,y sisters 3rs% Ste##a Oo#o- 3rs% Esther Chie,eaOor- N$oi a!d Chi!we Ubah for their assista!ce a!d e!coura$e,e!t%AC4NO56E7GE3ENT

I ?37 +;; .= ?;5,< +/ =5/5, .5 .= +;3?=.< G5 5, .= ((;(5;.35/ 5 .=3 5,>

I + ?,+.;< 3/. .5 < +, ;57;< +/ =+,5,>3/? +,/. M, +/ M,H O O>+5, 5, .=3, +,/.+; 5,. 5.= 5,+;;< +/ 3/+/(3+;;3/? 3., M, E.=,C=3>+-O5, 5, =, +3.+/(* +73(* 3/+/(3+; 5,. +/ 5.=, .55/,5 .5 /.35/ .=,5?=5. < .+< 3/ (=55;

I 3;; /5. +3; .5 , < 3/(, +,(3+.35/ .5 < P,54(. S,735, +/.= =+ 5 < +,./. B+,, P., O/3/45 +/ < +; ;(., 5.= +.

+/ ,/. M, I>* M, SV A?* M, O43>* D, U+3* M, U(=* M, O+,*P,5 S I U++= +/ P,5 O/+=* 5, .=3, 3,/. (5/.,3.35/ 3/ .,+/5,3/? 3/.5 + ((; (5/53.

M< 3/(, ?,+.3. +;5 ?5 .5 < 5/,; +/ (5-5,+.37 (5, +.5, .=3, ;57 +/ (5/(,/ N5. 5,?..3/? < ,55+. +/ +/< 5.=, +< G53/ =3 >3// ,+,


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D3(+.35/ - - - - - - - - - - 333

A(>/5;?/. - - - - - - - - - 37

A.,+(. - - - - - - - - - - - 7

T+; 5 C5/./.73

CAPTE! ONE

10 I/.,5(.35/ 1
http://var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_2/HYPERLINK%23bookmark7http://var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_2/HYPERLINK%23bookmark7


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1%1 B+(>?,5/ S.< - - -

1%2 S.+./. 5 .= P,5; - -

1%9 O4(.37 5 .= S.< - -

1%) H


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2%0 T=5,.3(+; R73 - - -

2%1 A?,3(;.,+; D7;5/. - -

2%1%1 A?,3(;.,+; C,3. G+,+/. S(= F/ 'ACGSF) -2%1%2 T= N+.35/+; F+++ D7;5/. P,54(. - - -

2%1%9%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% A?,3(;., +/E5,. E+,/3/?

2%1%) A?,3(;., +/ +;+/( 5 P+


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9%2 M5; S(33(+.35/ - - - - - - -9%2%1%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% D//.

V+,3+;9%2%2 E;+/+.5,< 5, I///. V+,3+; - - - -9%9 S.,(.,+; P,/.+.35/ 5 .= M5; - - - -

9%) M+.=+.3(+; P,/.+.35/ 5 .= M5; - - -9%*%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% M.=5 5

E7+;+.35/

9%:%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% D+.+ R3,+/ S5,(

CAPTE! #OU!

)%0 P,/.+.35/ +/ A/+;


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CAPTE! #I$E

*%0 S+,< 5 F3/3/?* R(5/+.35/ +/ C5/(;35/*%1 S+,< 5 F3/3/?*%2 R(5/+.35/*%9 C5/(;35/

Refere!ces A8STRACT

The study e;a,i!es the ro#e of co,,ercia# ba!s i! A$ricu#tura# de.e#o+,e!t i! Ni$eria- s+a!!i!$ fro,1uares ?O6S@- usi!$ %C $i.e =%00 +aca$e% Thefi!di!$s fro, the study su++ort the .iew that co,,ercia# ba! #oa!s are !ot $etti!$ to red far,ers% Theco,,ercia# ba!s #oa! to A$ricu#tura# sector is +ositi.e a!d si$!ifica!t at *B #e.e#- co!tributi!$ :(%:*+erce!t .ariatio!s i! Rea# A$ricu#tura# out+ut i! Ni$eria% Rea# i!terest rate a!d rea# e;cha!$e rate are both+ositi.e- but !ot si$!ifica!t at *B +erce!t #e.e#% The +ositi.e rea# i!terest rate shows that I!.est,e!ts i!A$ricu#tura# sector i! Ni$eria has a .ery hi$h rate of retur!% The fi!di!$s su$$est that rea# i!terest a!de;cha!$e rates shou#d be +ro+er#y ,a!a$ed a!d +eriodica##y recei.ed so as to +ro,ote the $rowth of theA$ricu#tura# sector%C"ATER ONE

1.0 INT!ODUCTION

1.1 BAC%&!OUND O# TE 'TUD(

A?,3(;., 3/75;7 .= (;.37+.35/ 5 ;+/* ,+33/? +/ ,+,3/? 5 +/3+;+/ ,+ +.,3+; 5, 3/.,3 I. 3/75;7 (,53/? ;37 .5(>* 5,.,.3/? 5 .= +?,3(;.,+; ,5(.F55 3 +/ 5. 35,.+/. +3( / 5, .=5 5 (;5.=3/? +/ =;.,I. 3 ,57335/ .=,5,* =+ / .= +45, (5/(,/ 5 +/ ,5 .= +.


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).* 'TATE+ENT O# TE P!OB,E+

N3?,3+/ +?,3(;., 3 (5/,5/. 3.= +/< ,5; =3(= ,+/? ,5;5 ua#ity e.e! at the ,aret +#ace as they co,e u!der the ditches of rich far,ers a!d se##ers i! the urba!areas% The !eed for setti!$ u+ of rura# based co,,ercia# ba!s is .ery ur$e!t

III.3 .OBECTI$E O# TE 'TUD(

T= +3/ 54(.37 5 .=3 .< 3 .5 + .= ,5; 5 .= (5,(3+;+/> 3/ +?,3(;.,+; 7;5/. 3/ N3?,3+ ,5 1986-2009 S(33(+;;< .=.< ./ .5 +(=373/? .= 5;;53/? 54(.37

I% T5 +(( .= (5 +/ +(=37/. + ;; + =3?=;3?=. / ,5; 5N3?,3+/ C5,(3+; B+/> .5 A?,3(;.,


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II% I/.3< .= 3/=,/. ,5; 5 +?,3(;.,+; 3/+/(3/? =3(= =+7=3/, .= 55.= ;5 5 (,3. ,5 +/> .5 +?,3(;.,

III% T5 5, 5;.35/ .5 3/.33 ,5;III.4(POTE'I' O# TE 'TUD(

T= =


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T= .< 5/;< (/., 5/ .= ,5; 5 (5,(3+; B+/>3/? 3/ +?,3(;.,+;7;5/. +/ +(.5, ,,5/3/? .=3, (,3. (335/ .5 +?,3(;.,+; (.5,

T=* 3. 5/;< + .= ,5,+/( 5 .= +/> 3/ (.3/? .= ,5; 53/+/(3/? +?,3(;.,Si!ce it was !ot +ossib#e to $et the who#e i!for,atio! !eeded i! this study- the study is #i,ited to theNi$eria! Eco!o,y% The study is e>ua##y #i,ited by ti,e a!d #i,ited sources of data% There are ti,eco!strai!ts i! the +rocess of carryi!$ out research due to i! accuracy of data% It is so,eti,e +ossib#e tou!deresti,ate or o.er esti,ate%C"ATER T5O

2.0 TEO!ETICA, !E$IE"2.1 A&!ICU,TU!A, DE$E,OP+ENT

A?,3(;.,+; 7;5/. 3 5. 3,+; 3/ +;5. 7,< /+.35/ 5.= 5,;* =+.7, .= .+? 5 .= (5/5< 5 .= /+.35/

A((5,3/? .5 T5+,5 '19"") +?,3(;.,+; 7;5/. 5((, =/.+/.3+; ,5(.37 (++(3.< +/ =3?= 5.. , 5,>, ,3. + 7,< +;;/, 5 +,, .5 .= /.3, /+.35/

S5


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,,+; 5;+.35/ 5, ,5(. 5 .= +/3/? (.5,?ii@ R;+.3/? .= 5,3?/ (=+/? (5/.,+3/. < +,/3/? 5,3?/ (=+/?

.=,5?= 5,. 5, < +73/? 5,3?/ (=+/? .=,5?= 3.+.35/L5(+; (5/.35/ +/ 5,. 5/ .= +,. 5 .= ?57,//.* =+3 +

;+( 5/ ,+,(= ./35/* +,>.3/? +/ ,3(3/? 5 5,. + (,5 .5 .=/?;(. 5 55 (,5 (.5, I/ ?/,+;* .= ,5,+/( 5 +?,3(;.,+; (.5,,3/? .=3 +, + +.3+(.5,< + 3. ;3;; 3. +45, ,5; < +>3/? 5535,.+.35/ ; ,5/5/(* . ?/,+. + 5,3?/ (=+/? .=,5?= .= +;+/(

5 +

A?,3(;., (5/.,3. 5, .=+/ 0 5 .= .5.+; +//+; GDP* ;5


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+..+3/ ;+,? (+; ,5(.35/ =3; +;5 3,573/? .5,+?* ,5(3/? +/+,>.3/? 3/,+.,(., .5 +(=37 .+3/+; 55 .+3;3. .=,5?= A?,3(;.,+; C,3. G+,+/. S(=F/ 'ACGSF) (+//5. 3?/5, B./ 200$ +/ 2009* ;5+/ ?+,+/. ,+(= N18* 992#08 3;;35/ '3/ +< 5/;3/(5 2009) T= ,+>5/ 5 .= ;5+/ =5 .=+.


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(,5 .= (;.37+.35/ 5, ,5(.35/ 5 (,+; (,5 .,* ,3. 5 +;; >3/* (5..5/*+/* ?,5//.* S=+ /.* B// * 7?.+;* 3/-+;* +/+/+ +/;+/.+3/ T=, 3 +;5 +/3+; =+/,3(> 5 .= (++3?/*+/ +(=37/. 3/ .= N3?,3+ 3+ ., (++3?/* .= U/3. B+/> 5, A,3(+ 'UBA) + +,5/3/? N$0 3;;35/ .+> .5+, +?,3(;., 3/+/(3/? T=3 3/3.3+.* (+;; .=

A?,3(;.,+; S5,. S(=* 3 5/ 5 .= ;+,?. ,37+. (.5, 3/3.3+.37 .55,. +?,3(;., 7;5/. 3/ N3?,3+ T= / 3 .+,?. +. +;; ?/. 5.= +?,3(;., (=+3/* ,5 +;; +/ 3 (+; +,, .5 ;+,? 3/.,3+;,54(.

T= /.,+/( 5 C/.,+; B+/> 5 N3?,3+ 'CBN) 3/.5 .= ,+( .5 +7 .=/+.35/ +?,3(;., .=,5?= .= +,57+; 5 N200 3;;35/ 5, 5/-;+3/? 5, ;+,?(+; +?,3(;., < N+.35/+; E(5/53( C5/(3; ,7 + + ,+; ?57,//./5,/. 5 5 5,. '3/ +< 5/;3/ (5 2009)

T= C5,(3+; A?,3(;.,+; C,3. S(= 'CACS) +(>+? 5 N200 3;;35/3 (;37;< 3(+. .5 3/.,7/.35/ 3/ .= +?,5 (.5, E(. 5, N#0 3;;35/,,7 5, .+. ?57,//.* 3. +, +;; .= =+;; +,> 5 + 3- .,(5,(3+; ;+3/? ,5?,+ - 37 3/ +?,3(;., 3/+/(3/?* N3?,3+/ A?,3(;.,+;I/,+/( S(= 'NAIS) 3 +;5 .+>3/? ,55. 3/ ,5733/? ,5.(.35/ .5 +,,,5 .= (. 5 /+.,+; ,3> I/ 2008* N3?,3+/ A?,3(;., I/,+/(C5,5,+.35/ ' NAIC) +3 N102 3;;35/ + (;+3 .5 +,, 5. 5 .= N1$63;;35/ (. .5 +3 .5 .= +,, ,3/? .= ,35 /, ,73 =3; .=+;+/( 5 N$# 3;;35/ + .3;; 3/? ,5( 5, + 5/ 5.= +5/. =5 .=+. N98 3;;35/ + +3 5, (,5* N"9" 3;;35/ 5,;37.5(> =3; N22 3;;35/ + 5, 5.=, 5, 5 (;+3 A;5 .= (5,5,+.35/

/, ,5.


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3/ 5,.= N206 3;;35/ ,3/? .= + ,35* 3/(;3/? (,5* N6$ 3;;35/;37.5(>* N$1 3;;35/ +/ N89 3;;35/ 5, 5.=, 3/ *.).* TE NATIONA,

#ADA+A DE$E,OP+ENT P!OECT

T= N+.35/+; F+++ D7;5/. P,54(. + +/5.=, +?,3(;.,+; 5;3(33/.,5( < .= ?57,//. .5 3,57 +?,3(;.,+; ,5(. F+++ I: F+++ I+ 3;/. ,3/? .= ,35 199-1999 I. 5( +3/;< 5/ (,5,5(.35/ +/ ;+,?;< /?;(. 5,. 5 5. ,5(.35/ +(.373.3 (= +(553.< ,5(3/?* .5,+? +/ +>3/? '5/ .,+ +?,3(;.,+; (.5,) T=

=+3 + 5/ ,5733/? 5,=5; +/ .5 (,5 +,, .=,5?= 3;(,3. +,,+/?/. +3 +. 55.3/? +??,?+. (,5 5. 'N>5/*1992)

T= N+.35/+; F+++ D7;5/. P,54(. 'NFDP) + .+;3= .5 /,+;; 200 B;/(= +/ I/?++* 200#)T= (5/ F+++ D7;5/. P,54(. 3 5/ 5 .= +45, 3/.,/.5, +(=373/? 57, +;; 7;5/. 5 +?,3(;.,+; (.5, 3/ N3?,3+ T= ,54(.*


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=3(= + (;+, 3,/. (.37 5/ M+< 2"* 200#* 3 / < W5,;B+/> T= .+. 3/(; A+++* B+(=3* G5* FCT* I5* K3* L+?5*N3?,* O?/* +/ T+,++ 'NFDO* 200") F+++ II + 3?/ .5 5,+. 5,3 (=+,? 5 .=3, 5/ 7;5/. +?/+* +/ < ,(3/?(5/;3(. ./ , T= ,54(. +5. + +/-,37/ +,5+(= I/ .=3(+ , 5 F+++ ,5,( , /(5,+? .5 7;5 +,.3(3+.5,< +/5(3+;;< 3/(;37 ;5(+; 7;5/. ;+/ 'LDPS) T= LDPS , .= +35,. /, .= ,54(.P!OECT CO+P,I+ENT'

T= ,54(. 3?/ .= 5;;53/? (55//. .5 +(=37 3. ?5+; P3;5.P,5(.35/ A. A(33.35/ S5,.: T= 57,+;; 54(.37 5 .=3 (55//. 3.5 /=+/( .= 3,57/. 3/ F+++ , ,5(.373.< +/ 3/(5 . +3;, 3/ ,,+; 3/+/( (.5, 5/ .= 55, F+++, ?,5 .=,5?= +.(=3/? ?,+/. A +.(=3/? ?,+/. 5 7/.< ,(/. '"0)3;; ;/. .= /3(3+,3 3/+/(3/? =+, 5 .=3,.< ,(/. 5 (5. 5 .=+. 'O>5/45* 200$)

R,+; 3/,+.,(., 3/7./.: T= R,+; I/,+.,(., C55//. 3,5/3; 5, .= (,+.35/ 5 3/,+.,(., +/ ;5(+; ,5(.35/ .=5 3/5,, .5 3,57 .= ,5(.373.< 5 F+++ , =5=5; I. 3/+/( .=(5/.,(.35/ 5, ,=+3;3.+.35/ 5 ;3?3; +;; (+; 3/,+.,(.,+; ,54(.(33 + ,35,3.3 3/ ;5(+; D7;5/. P;+/ 'LDP) +/ +;5 ;+,?

,54(. .=+. (. +(,5 7;5/. ;+/ =3(= +, (5/3, ,5.* G,+3/? ,,7 +/ S,73( (/., O.=, +,


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+,>. 3/,+.,(., (= + VIP ;+.,3/* ,+3/+?* 5,=5;* (5; ,55* (55;3/?=* +/ ,3( ,5(3/? 5.-=+,7.3/? +/ +3 ,5(3/? 3/. 'I/?++. +;* 200#) *.).1 A&!ICU,TU!E AND E2PO!T EA!NIN&'

T= 35,.+/( 5 +?,3(;., (+/ +;5 +, 3/ ., 5 3. (5/.,3.35/.5 5,. +,/3/? ,5 .5 +.

T= (5/.,3.35/ 5 +?,3(;., 3/(,+ 3/ +5;. ., 57, .=


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T5 ;/. .= ;5 5.3(+;;< ,5( 55 ;< .=, =+ / +.+/.3+; ,3 3/ 55 35,. T= =+7 .+>/ .+/.3+; 5,.35/ 5 .= (=/ 5,3?/ (=+/? 5, 35,.3/? (+3.+; 5, 7;5/. ,5

A .,5/? +/ 3(3/. +?,3(;.,+; (.5, =+ .= 5./.3+; .5 /+; + (5/.,< 3. ?,53/? 5;+.35/* ?/,+. ;5


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+?,3(;., ,5 3. 3.3+; 53.35/ 5 3./( ;7; .5 +,>.-5,3/. ;7;

S5 5 .= 5;3(< +, +/ ,5?,+ 3/(;:

T= N+.35/+; A((;,+. F55 P,5(.35/ P,54(. 'NAFPP) NAFPP +.+;3= 3/ 19" +3 +. +((;,+.3/? .= ,5(.35/ 5 +45, .+; (,5 T=,5?,+ =3(= =+ .=, (55//. 5 ,+,(=* ./35/ +/ +?,5-,73( 3,57 ,+(.3( 3/ ;+( 5 .,+3.35/+; 5/ I. +;5 ,573 +(3;3.3 ;3>(,3.* +,>.3/?* .5,+? +/ ,5(3/? +(3;3.3 .5 +,,

T= R37, B+3/ D7;5/. A.=5,3.3 'RBDA): T= F,+; G57,//. 3/19"6 .+;3= ;7/ R37, B+3/ D7;5/. +.=5,3.3 /, D(, N5 2$T= RBDAS , +3 +. 7;5/. 5 ;+/ +/ +., ,5,( 5, ?/,+;7;5/. 5 +?,3(;., 3/ N3?,3+

O,+.35/ F .= N+.35/ 'OFN) OFN + ;+/(= 3/ 19"6 < .=O++/45 M3;3.+,< A3/3.,+.35/ I. + +3 +. 53;33/? N3?,3+/ .5 .+>+(.37 +,. 3/ ?,53/? .=3, 5/ 55 =3(= 3;; ;+ .5 3/(,+ 3/ 55 ,5(.35/3/ .= (5/.,< .=,< ;+3/? .5 ; 3(3/(< 3/ 55 ,5(.35/* OFN .,3 .5/(5,+? N3?,3+/ 3,,(.37 5 .=3, 5((+.35/ 3 .5 .+> +,. 3/ +,3/? /5+.., .= 3 5 .= +,L+/ U D(,: T= ;+/ (, + ,5;?+. 3/ 19"8 +/ 3/(5,5,+.

3/.5 19"9 (5/.3..35/ T= (, + +3 +. ,5,3/? .= L+/ T/, S .5 ;+,? (+; +,3/? 3/ N3?,3+ T= (,?+7 + 55. .5 +?,3(;., < +>3/? ;+/ ,+3;< 5, ;+,? (+; +?,3(;.,+;+(.373.3 3/ .= (,* +;; ;+/ , 7. 3/ .= =+/ 5 S.+. G57,//. .=+.=; .= 3/ .,. 5, .= ,+; ?57,//.

T= (553.< B5+, 3/ 19""* .= ,+; ?57,//. .+;3= 7/(553.< 5+, /, (, N5 29 T= 7/ +,>.3/? 5+, ,;+( .=35;7 ,?35/+; 5+, T= 7/ 5+, .55> (+, 5 (5(5+* ,,* (5..5/*?,5//.* ?,+3/ '5, (,+;) ,55. (,5 '5, (++7+*


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55.3/? 3/(,+ 3/ 1980 T= ?57,//. +3/;< +3 +. 55.3/? 3/(,+ 3/+?,3(;.,+; ,5(.35/ 3/ 5,, .5 . .= 55 / 5 .= (5/.,< +/ ,( .=,+3/ 3/ .= (5/., ?37 ;5+/ 3,(.; (,3. ?3+/(

3,(.37 +/ F,+; G57,//. A?,3(;., C,3. G+,+/. S(=G57,//. /3.,: I/ + 3 .5 +753 / =+,3/? 3/(,+ 3/ ,5(.35/ 5+?,3(;.,* .= 7+,35 ?57,//. 3/ N3?,3+ =+7 /. 5,./ 3/ .= +,+ 5+?,3(;.,+; (.5, C5/3,+; ,35,3.< + ?37/ .5 +?,3(;., 3/ +;; 7;5/.;+/ ;+/(= 3/ N3?,3+ F5, 3/.+/(* +5. N1* 6#6 3;;35/ + ;+///3., 5/ +?,3(;., 3/ .= T=3, D7;5/. P;+/ '19"$-1980)*.* E+PE!ICA, ,ITE!ATU!E !E$IE"

A ;5. 5 E(5/53( ,3., =+7 / 5/ 5/ .= 7;5/. 5 +?,3(;.,+ (.5, +3/3/? .= 3. 5 ;3( (.5, +/ .= ,37+. (.5, D7;5/.+3 +. +(=373/? .= /;3?=./ +3,+.35/ 5 5; (= .=+. + 53.37 (=+/?3/ .=3, 5(35-5;3.3(+; +/ (5/53( (5/(,/ 3 ,5?=. +5. +;5/? 3.=7;5/. 3/ .=3, 3/?

A?,3(;., 7;5/. ++;;< +3 +. (=+/?3/? .= .+. 5 ,5 ;,5(.37 +,5+(= .5 + ,+5/+; ;7; 5 ?,5.=* /3/? 5/ 5(3+; 5,,+/ ,5,( /5/. +5/? 5.=, +(.5, S((37 +3/3.,+.35/ 3/N3?,3+ =+7 +,> 5/ 7,+; +?,3(;.,+; 5;3(3 3.= 7+,5 '1986) +..,3. .=3 7;5/. .5 .= +(. .=+.A?,3(;., =3(= 3/(; ;37.5(>* 5,.,


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+3/3.,+.35/ 5.= 3;3.+,< +/ (373;3+/ +;3> =+7 /5. 5/ /5?= .5 .=5; A;5 .= +/>3/? 3/.,< 3(,33/+. +?+3/. .= +?,3(;.,+; (.5, +/+?/. 3/ N3?,3+ +?,3(;., T=3 3 =< .= (,+.35/ 5 N3?,3+/ +?,3(;.,3/,+/( (= 3 + . 3/ .= /3?=. 3,(.35/

U5>5,5 '198") 3/ =3 +/+; +/ /(,.+3/.< 3/ +?,3(;., +75(+.5, 37,33(+.35/* (3+;3+.35/* ;33;3.< (+/ 3/, +/ /(,.+3/.< (+/ 3/, (+ /(,.+3/. 3 =< +/> 3(,33/+.

+?+3/. +?,3(;.,+; (.5, 3/ ., 5 (,3. T=3 (+/ +..,3. .5 .= ++/./+., 5 +?,3(;., 3/ ., 5 (,3. T=3 (+/ +..,3. .5 .= ++/. /+.,5 +?,3(;., 3/ N3?,3+ +/ .= 3/+3;3.< 5 7+,35 ?57,//. 5.= +. ,/..5 (. 3(3/. +?,3(;.,+; 5;3(< +/ ,5?,+

A,+33/? .= ,5(. 5 +?,3(;., +/ +?,3(;.,+; ,;+. 3/*A4+>+3


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3//3+ '199") .3 .= ,;+.35/=3 ./ +?,3(;.,+; ,3( +/ .=?/,+; ,3( ;7; 3/ G,( H (5/5.,3( .=5 5, /5/- .+.35/+, +, .3;; 3.=3/ .= ,+/? .=+. /(5,+?3/7./. 3/ +?,3(;.,+; (.5,

T= +,35,3 (.+.35/ 5, (5,(3+; +/> ;5+/ .5 +?,3(;., +/ .= ,+;(=+/? ,+. (5/5, .5 .= (. 3?/ 3.*.* 'TATI'TICA, TE'T/#I!'T O!DE! TE'T0

T+; #21+


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3 T= ./. . - T.T= ./. . - T. 3/75;7 (5+,3/? .= . '.- (+;(;+.) .5 3. . - .+;+.7+;* =3(= 3/ .= (,3.3(+; ,?35/ 3/ + .5-.+3; ..* 3.= /-> ?,5 ,5* =, / +; 3 +/ > .5.+; /, 5 .3+.+,+.,T= /;; = ;5+/ .5+?,3(;.,+; (.5, +, 3?/33(+/. =3; R+; 3/.,. ,+. +/ ,+; (=+/? ,+. +,

.+.3.3(+;;< 3/3?/33(+/. 33 F- ..F- ,+.35 3 .5 .. 5, .= 453/. 3/;/( 5 .= ;+/+.5, /, 5

' 3/(;3/? 0) N +; 3

I FQ F0 0 $ * ,4(. H5 * 5.=,3 +((. H5


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F,5 5, ,?,35/ ,;.* F '*21) 2$#8 =3; F 00$'*21) 0"2$ H/( F F0 0 $ * ,4(. H5+/ (5/(; .=+. +. $ ;7; 5 3?/33(+/(* .= 57,+;;

,?,35/ 3 .+.3.3(+;;< 3?/33(+/.333 T= (53(3/. 5 .,3/+.35/ 'R2):

2

R =5 .= ,(/.+? 7+,3+.35/ 3/ .= //. 7+,3+; + ;+3/ < .=3///. 7+,3+;The structure .ariab#es e;+#ai!ed the .ariatio! o! the beha.ior of the de+e!de!t .ariab#e ade>uate#y% This,ea!s that the ,ode# has a $ood fit- as e.ide!ced i! the .a#ue of R - which is 0%=22


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+ 5/ .= OLS ,3+;T=3 .. (5. .= >/ +/ (,.53 +, 5 .= OLS,3+;* +/ .= C=3-+, 3.,3.35/ 'G4+,+.3* 200#)T= /;; =


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F,5 .= +3;3+,< ,?,35/ ,;.*

2(+; 9$26$ =3;

2.+ 12$92

S3/( 2(+; '10"2) 200$'12$92)*W +((. .= /;; =


32/35

5.0 'U++A!( O# #INDIN&'6 !ECO++EDATION' AND

CONC,U'ION

5.1 'U++A!( #INDIN&'

T=3 ,+,(= 5,> + (+,,3 5. .5 >/5/ .= 3+(. 5 .= +/>3/?3/.,< 3/ 3/+/(3/? +?,3(;., 3/ N3?,3+ 3/? + .3 ,3 +.+ 3.=3/ 1986 .52010

T= +. =5 .=+. 5 5,. =+7 / + .5 3/+/( +?,3(;., 3/N3?,3+ . .= (. =+ /5. / ;. + .= (.5, 3 53/+. < .= 53; (.5,

T= +?,3(;.,+; 5.. 3/ N3?,3+ 3 3/? +(. < .= ,?;+.35/ 5 .= ,+;(=+/? ,+. < .= (,3. 3/.3..35/* 3/( +,, 3/ 3. 33(;. .5 (=+/?5,3?/ (,,/(< 3/.5 5.3( (,,/( .5 +/+? ,3> ,, .5 (3+;3+.35/ F;33;3..3/? +,,+/?/.*3/,+.,(., (= + , ,5+ 3(3/.* 3(3/. 5, ;< +/3/.3..35/+; ,5,

.% T= +/> (,3. ?37/ .5 +,, =+ =; +,, .5 .,+/5, =,+?,3(;.,+; 5.. 3/.5 3/.,3+; 3/. =3(= /+; =, .5 . .= ,33/?(.+.35/ 5 =, 5; +/ .5 (5,,(. .= 5(3+; +/ (5/53(

3+;+/( (,+. < .= .5 3 7;5/. ./ .= ,,+; +/ ,+/+,+ =3(= =+7 /(5,+? .=


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B+ 5/ .= +57 3/3/? +/ 3.3/? ;3.,+., 5/ .= ;5+/ +/+?,3(;.,+; ,5(.373. L5+/ =+7 + 3?/33(+/. 3+(. 5/ +?,3(;.,+; 5.. 3/N3?,3+ I/ .= =3?= 5 .=* .= 5;;53/? ,(5/+.35/ +, ,5,:1% R+; I/.,. R+. + 3. 3/;/( / 5;3(< =5; ,5,;< +/+? +/

,353(+;;< ,73 5 + .5 ,55. .= ?,5.= 5 .= +?,3(;.,+; (.5,2% R+; I/.,. R+. .,3/+.35/ 3 + /(.35/ 5 5/.+,< +.=5,3.< ;3> C/.,+;

B+/> 5 N3?,3+ .=,5,* 5/.+,< 5;3(< =5; ,55. .5+,

/=+/(3/? +?,3(;.,+; 5.. 3/ N3?,3+9% I/.,/+.35/+; 53 5.3 ?37 5. ;5+/ .5 3/+/( +?,3(;., 5, (=

;5+/ .5 ,5,;< .3;3* .=< =+7 .5 (=+//; 3/ (= + +< .=+. .=3+(. 5 (= ;5+/ =+ .5 ;. < .= ++/. +,,W=/ (= ;5+/ +, .+>/* .=< =5; .5+, .= +(=37/. 5(33( 54(.37 A/ (= ;5+/ =5; ,35;< 5/3.5, S3/(+?,3(;., 3 +/ 35,.+/. (.5, 5 .= (5/5 =5; ?37 ++. 3,(.37 .5 .= (5,(3+; +/>+/+.3/? .= .5 ?37 5. ;5+/ .5 +,, +. +5,+; 3/.,. ,+. +/(5;;+.,+; (,3.3

*% T= ?57,//. 5/ 3. 5/ +,. =5; + + 3;; .5 A?,3(;.,+; B+/>* =3(=

3;; +/+. .= .5 ?37 5. ;5+/ .5 +,, 3.=5. //(+,< ,,33.:% V+,35 ?57,//. =5; /(5,+? 5,+.35/ 5 +,, (55,+.37

5(3.3 +. ;5(+; ;7;* 5 + .5 /, ++. /3/? 5, +?,3(;., =3(=3;; /=+/( ?,5.= 5 .= (5/5


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shou#d be addressed% The eco!o,ic situatio! of Ni$eria re>uires that a re$u#ar +o#icy re.iew +rocessshou#d be i!stituted% 8y so doi!$- Ni$eria wi## achie.e its ( oi!ts A$e!da ai,ed at $uara!teei!$ a better#ife for a## Ni$eria!s a!d so#.e the +rese!t fri$hte!i!$ food crisis%8I86IOGRA"

A?


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O45* M O '1980) A?,3(;.,+; P,5,+/( +/ P5;3(< U/, .= SAP 3/ N3?,3+

The Nigeria ournal of E9onomi98 and 'o9ial 'tudie86V5; 10

O?* E G '198") T= D?, 5 5(3+; ,5/33;3.< 5 (5,(3+; +/> 3/

N3?,3+The Uni5* G '1991) F,+; G57,//. P5;3(< 3/ ,(. 5 +?,3(;.,+; F3/+/(

%5,/+;of Bullion6V5; 1$* N5 2

O/.5?* A '1989) A?,3(;.,+; C,3. S.,+.?3 5, N3?,3+/ F+,, N3?,3+/

Agri9ultural E9onomi9 ournal6V5; 1* N5

"EB

H?5* E '2009) I/.3..35/ C5/.,3.35/ .5 A?,3(;.,+; D7;5/. 3/ N3?,3+R.,37 N57, 11*2009* ,5 =..:!!3/+

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