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Presentation by Dirk Van Damme, Head of the Innovation and Measuring Progress Division, OECD Directorate for Education and Skills, during the meeting of the OECD Global Parliamentary Network in Mexico City (23-24 June 2014).
Citation preview
IMPLEMENTING STRUCTURAL REFORMS WITH THE OECD: THE
ROLE OF EDUCATION AND SKILLS IN PROMOTING INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Dirk Van Damme Head, Innovation and Measuring Progress Division,
OECD/EDU 23 June 2014
• Hesitant global economic recovery, but – Unemployment remains very high: >46 million
unemployed in OECD countries – The crisis has reinforced increase in income
inequality: income of richest 10% is 9.5 times that of poorest 10% (increase of 30% in 25 years)
Inclusive Growth: promoting inclusion and boosting long-term growth
2
• Hesitant global economic recovery, but – Inequality increases in many other domains as
well: employment, health, education, housing, not only affecting overall quality of life, but also future economic growth and social cohesion
• Multidimensionality of inclusive growth
• Economic growth is important, but not sufficient for society’s progress if the growth dividend is not shared in a fair way
Inclusive Growth: promoting inclusion and boosting long-term growth
3
Productivity Innovation
Human capital
Education
The role of education and skills in fostering growth – the standard view
GROWTH Income Competitiveness
4
Average number of years of schooling of the adult population
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
IND IDN CHN TUR BRA SAU MEX ZAF KOR ESP ITA RUS ARG FRA CAN JPN GBR AUS DEU USA
2010 1990 1970
Emerging countries catching up in education in quantitative terms
5
• But the average levels of educational attainment tell only part of the story, and a very minor one – Average skills level adult population only very
weakly related to economic output
6
The role of education and skills in fostering growth – the standard view
7
Average numeracy score unrelated to economic output
Australia Austria Canada
Czech Rep
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Slovak Rep
Spain
Sweden
United States
Flanders UK
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
240 250 260 270 280 290
GDP per capita
Mean numeracy score
PIAAC 2012
• For social progress, the equitable distribution is more important – Equality of opportunity to education – Equitable learning outcomes – A well-balanced skills distribution
• Especially at the low ends of the distribution
8
The role of education and skills in fostering inclusive growth
The role of education and skills in fostering inclusive growth
High social inequality
Unequal family
economic & cultural capital
Unequal education
opportunities
Wide distribution in learning outcomes
Unequal skills distribution
Low social mobility
Education Skills 9
The role of education and skills in fostering inclusive growth
High social inequality
Unequal family
economic & cultural capital
Unequal education
opportunities
Wide distribution in learning outcomes
Unequal skills distribution
Low social mobility
Education Skills 10
Australia Austria
Belgium Canada
Chile
Czech Rep. Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Rep.
Slovenia
Spain Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
US
Singapore
Hong Kong-China Chinese Taipei
Macao-China Liechtenstein
Viet Nam
Latvia
Russian Fed. Lithuania
Croatia
Serbia Romania
Bulgaria United Arab Emirates Kazakhstan
Thailand Malaysia
PISA 2012 Shanghai-China
Socially equitable distribution of learning
opportunities
Strong socio-economic impact on student
performance
The role of education and skills in fostering inclusive growth
High social inequality
Unequal family
economic & cultural capital
Unequal education
opportunities
Wide distribution in learning outcomes
Unequal skills distribution
Low social mobility
Education Skills 12
Skills inequality relates to income inequality
13
Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Rep Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany Ireland
Italy Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Slovak Rep
Spain
Sweden
United States
Flanders
UK
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
55 60 65 70 75
Gini coefficient
Score-point difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles on the numeracy scale
PIAAC 2012
Especially, the share of low-skilled relates strongly to social inequality
Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Rep Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany Ireland
Italy Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Slovak Rep
Spain
Sweden
United States
Flanders
UK
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Gini coefficient
Percentage of adults scoring below Level 2 on the numeracy scale 14
PIAAC 2012
15
While the share of high-skilled is positively related to economic output
Australia
Austria Canada
Czech Rep
Denmark
Estonia
Finland Germany
Ireland
Italy Japan
Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Slovak Rep
Spain
Sweden
United States
Flanders UK
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
3 6 9 12 15 18 21
GDP per capita
Percentage adults scoring Level 4 or 5 on the numeracy scale
PIAAC 2012
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
Good to excellenthealth
Being employedHigh levels ofinterpersonal
trust
Participation involunteeractivities
High levels ofpolitical efficacy
High wages
Low skills impact negatively on social outcomes and can generate huge costs
scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below Odds ratio
16
PIAAC 2012
• National differences in connecting education and skills distribution to social and economic outcomes are huge
• Hence, policies play a powerful role and can impact on each step in the process
• There is a lot of room for improvement towards inclusive growth
17
But policies can have an impact on education systems improving quality and equity
But policies can have an impact on education systems improving quality and equity
18
Education policies
But policies can have an impact on education systems improving quality and equity
Germany
Netherlands
Mexico
Sweden
OECD average 2003
Uruguay
Australia
Belgium
Austria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
New Zealand
Norway
Poland Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Switzerland United States
Brazil
Hong Kong-China
Indonesia Latvia Macao-China Russian Federation Thailand
Tunisia
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-8-6-4-202468
Annu
alise
d ch
ange
in m
athe
mat
ics p
erfo
rman
ce
Change in the percentage of variation in mathematics performance explained by the PISA index of economic, social and cultural status (2012 - 2003)
Equity improved Equity deteriorated
Performance im
proved Perform
ance deteriorated
19
PISA 2012 - 2003
The OECD can help! Tailored policy advice
20
The OECD can help! Education GPS: User-friendly knowledge management
http://gpseducation.oecd.org/
21
• Making the analysis and identifying the policy challenges
• Helping to set the objectives of reform • Assisting in the national dialogue to foster the
acceptance of reform and its implementation • Monitoring outcomes • Identifying next steps
The OECD can help! The case of education reform in Mexico
22
• Making the analysis and identifying the policy challenges
• Helping to set the objectives of reform • Assisting in the national dialogue to foster the
acceptance of reform and its implementation • Monitoring outcomes • Identifying next steps
The OECD can help! The case of education reform in Mexico
23
A. Estudiantes: mejores resultados para todos Equidad y calidad: Promover la mejora educativa para niños de contextos socioeconómicos en desventaja y de poblaciones indígenas. Preparar a los alumnos para el futuro: Promover mayor cobertura de educación media superior y asegurar un uso efectivo de cualificaciones en el mercado laboral.
B. Instituciones: mejorar la calidad de las escuelas Mejora escolar: Profesionalizar la enseñanza y el liderazgo escolar atrayendo, desarrollando y reteniendo a los mejores candidatos a través de procesos sistemáticos y transparentes. Evaluar para mejorar los resultados de los alumnos: Proveer coherencia a través del sistema, construyendo capacidad y equilibrando las funciones de mejora y rendición de cuentas.
C. Instituciones: gestionar el sistema educativo Gobierno: Lograr un balance entre gobiernos federales y estatales, asegurando la capacidad y el involucramiento efectivo de diferentes actores. Financiación: Establecer un financiamiento más transparente y equitativo que alcance a aquellas escuelas y alumnos que más lo necesitan.
El marco de análisis y retos en México
Contexto: Política educativa en perspectiva
24
• OECD will continue its work on Inclusive Growth – http://www.oecd.org/inclusive-growth/
• The OECD Directorate for Education and Skills (EDU) will structurally include work on Inclusive Growth in its 2015-16 draft work programme – The Centre for Educational Research and
Innovation (CERI) will have a project on ‘How skills contribute to Inclusive Growth’
25
OECD’s work on Inclusive Growth