The role of REDD+ Patricia Gorin, FAO Rome Vientiane, 30 Aug 2011

The role of REDD+

Patricia Gorin, FAO Rome Vientiane, 30 Aug 2011

Content

Context and Definitions of REDD+ Importance of REDD+ for UNCCD & SLM REDD+ potential worldwide and for drylands REDD+ eligibility in the carbon markets &

existing projects REDD+ in the international negotiation arena Drivers of deforestation and degradation Phases and financing REDD+

Content



Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries

Reducing Emissions from Forest Degradation

ConservationSustainable Management of Forests

Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks

Agriculture?Other land-use types?

REDD

REDD+

AFOLU

What is REDD+?

Tropical Deforestation is not covered by the current climate regime

Why is REDD+ important?

13 million ha per year is deforested contributing up to 17% of global emissions

The Deforestation is largest source of emissions in the developing world (2nd largest source after fossil fuel)

has been long discussed in the definition of CDM rules already, but came back into discussions in 2005

now back on all agendas, on the road to be included into post 2012 UNFCCC measures

REDD concept

GHG e

miss

ions

Project commissioned

Time

Emission level with project

Business-as-usual scenario

without project= Baseline Emission

Reductions

GHG e

miss

ions


Time




Reductions

GH

G e

mis

sion

s


Time




Reductions

GH

G e

mis

sion

s


Time




Reductions

Project start

Red = baseline, emission level without project

Baseline = Business as Usual Scenario, Scenario in the absence of the project

REDD+

UN-REDD (UNDP-UNEP-FAO) Program $ 112.5 M

11

22

33

44

55

66

Strategy work areas:

Content



REDD+ and UNCCD

• Mandate of the UNCCD: to combat land degradation and desertification, and to promote SLM and rural development in drought-prone areas

• Deforestation in drylands significantly increases the risk of soil degradation and desertification

• Land degradation, particularly unsustainable land management practices and deforestation, are major contributors to the increase in GHG in the atmosphere

• REDD may provide a unique opportunity to fund measures aiming at ongoing degradation of forestlands in arid and semi-arid areas

Content



Deforestation trends

Mainly in South America, Southeast Asia, West & Central Africa

Country

Deforested area

(1000 ha/y, average 1990-2005)

Trend

1990-2000 to 2000-05

Brazil 2,822 ↑

Indonesia 1,872 –

Sudan 589 –

Myanmar 467 –

DR Congo 461 ↓

Zambia 445 –

Tanzania 412 –

Nigeria 410 –

Zimbabwe 313 –

Venezuela 288 –

Other 68 countries 3,257 ?

13 M ha deforested annually

Potential for drylands

Carbon contents of forests vary widely

Payments in carbon markets would be based on carbon content of ecosystems

Cambodia: average 80 t C/ha

Sudan: average 6 t C/ha

Potential for drylands

• Potential rewards from REDD vary proportionally:

However, these are areas most at risk from land degradation and desertification!

Solutions?

Countries / areas with predominantly arid forests would gain very little from REDD

Content



REDD eligibility

Voluntary markets!

VCS: Voluntary Carbon StandardCCX: Chicago Climate Exchange VER+: Verified Emission Reductions Standards

REDD+ in the Carbon Markets

REDD+ in the Carbon Markets

Official UN REDD scheme and markets only after 2012

Several large pilot schemes already underway

Voluntary markets for avoided deforestation already exist can generate carbon finance now with pilot projects

Voluntary markets can prepare a country for REDD

Can help set up necessary institutions (e.g., transparent management, monitoring, dedicated government divisions)

Projects could be integrated in national REDD strategy

Content



International negociations on REDD+

SBSTA: Subsidiary body for scientific and technological adviceAWG-LCA: Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention

Cancún

100 B $/ pledged until 2020 ~ $ 10B/year (?)

Reinforced REDD+

Continue to seek a legally binding agreement on second commitment period, South Africa >>> ongoing

Action Framework on adaptation

New programme on technology transfer

Green FundWorld Bank trustee, independent board

Pilot countries and observators 29 partners countries, from which 9 + 3

pilot countries

Content



Deforestation & Degradation Drivers

Remote, marginal areas – Land tenure – Illegal logging – Enforcement / impunity

High opportunity costs of sustainable forest use and conservation relative to other land uses and commodities

Weak governance – Policy coherence / will – Capacities, resources – Contradicting legal frameworks – Transparency / accountability – Ownership, participation

But:

Content



REDD+ phasing

REDD+ finance

3.5 B$ preparatory activities (readiness)

20-35 B$ performance based payments for emission reduction

at least~ 4 B$ / year until 2015(UNFCCC-Informal Working Group on Interim Finance, October 2009)

Estimated need: $ 23-38 B to reduce annual deforestation 25% (3.2 M ha / year):

Oslo REDD+ Partnership: 4.5 B US$ pledged for “fast start” activities

Mitigation costs

REDD+ is a key component in the UNFCCC negociations towards major financing transactions

REDD+: 2– 4 $/t CO2

Industrial CO2 capture and storage: $ 75-115 / t

REDD+ can be achieved relatively cheaply, could reduce the cost of global action by 40%

What’s new?

Difference: REDD+ finance needs would Increase substantially the investment in governance and national capacity building

Current “mitigation aid” around 8 B $/year.

Governance is the main challenge

Of the countries participating in UN-REDD and FCPF, 83% are rated ashaving unstable business climates and 13% are rated as highly risky.

Possible “first” impacts

Governance– institutional capacities– law enforcement, certainty

Improved policy coherence– Investment climate for agriculture,

energy, infrastructure, environment, forestry, others

Landscape impact– Land use planning– Tenure regulation

Thanks!

Patricia Gorin

Climate Change and Environment Officer

FAO Rome, Centre d’investissement

[email protected]

Patricia Gorin

Climate Change and Environment Officer

FAO Rome, Investment Centre (TCID)

[email protected]

Documents

The role of REDD+ Patricia Gorin, FAO Rome Vientiane, 30 Aug 2011