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COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN
THE ROSEN MARKET TIMING LETTER
PRECIOUS METALS - FOREX - STOCK INDICES - COMMODITIES
“Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.” W.D.Gann
RONALD L. ROSEN [email protected]
REPORT
GOLD EQUALS FREEDOM
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 2
"I have been waiting 20 years for this bull market.....it's going to be great help going thru it with your experience and delta charts."
Regards, B. D.
"Great report Ron. I am especially impressed with your call that silver might bottom at 9.05, which it did. I waited and entered at 9.20 after I thought the 9.05 low had been established. Otherwise, I am still following your long term advice on the stocks in the HUI but I am sorely tempted to take some profit the
end of this month. Any opinion? Thanks again and extra thanks for giving us so much bang for our buck with these frequent and
informative (sometimes amusing) reports." J. O.
"Ron, your frequent reports are invaluable and important. I feel like a kid at Christmas opening a present each time i get your email. Each one is well read and much appreciated by all."
M. D.
"Ron, “Thanks for the breadth and depth of your 17.02.06 report it is a great help and most comforting to have you in our corner."
Best regards, F. B.
"Ron, Kudos on a very good report. Technical analysis-even delta- is meaningless without both an appreciation of underlying fundamentals and, more importantly, a philosophy borne of observation and
experience. Your comments illustrate both. And I am delighted to have been able to read them. Hopefully, we will be able to navigate the rough waters together with you. I always appreciate your
comments and observations." Warmest regards,
J. K.
"Re: Your Feb 27 Report – It is simply fabulous. These charts are so clear & beautiful." K. K.
"Thanks for a great report Ron." N.S.
"Ron is the 'Old Man of the Sea'. He knows his weather, knows his currents & knows his tides. He fishes from a small boat & is not greedy with his catch. He also knows when to pull up his line & when to stay ashore. Our fisherman is now sowing his nets. When the old man goes out to fish, lets put our boats back into the water. Let the fisherman's eyes cast their gaze & let his ears & nose sense the wind change. The
fisherman knows where the best fish are, yet he uses a small hook & very little bait. Why? He fishes when the catch is hungry & when the catch wants to be caught! Even with a small catch he is happy & occasionally he is pleasantly surprised, one way or another. Most of the times he is not surprised but
understands two fish are never the same & two days on & in the ocean are never the same." "Rest well fisherman. See you on the water!"
F.O.
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 3
Those of us who are fortunate enough to live in and be citizens of a land of freedom
do not have to look very far afield to know just how fortunate we really are.
However, as you very well know our freedom is threatened more from within than
from without. People throughout history who lived under governments and laws
that allowed fiat currency to be the medium of exchange soon lost their freedom and
their savings and investments and the fruits of a lifetime of hard work. This is the
danger that most of us face today.
There is only one way at this point in time to fully protect the assets and savings that
you have accumulated and/or inherited during your lifetime. Of course, you know
the way is through the ownership of gold in some form. Unfortunately, the enemy of
your owning and holding gold is also from within and not from without. That enemy
is within you and is not from any source outside of yourself. The enemy of investing
and holding when the bull market in gold is on the verge of exploding in a massive
parabolic move is the constant attempt to trade this bull market.
If you are a successful professional trader and make your living trading and spend
your life doing just that, you are a very rare exception. The industry records tell us
that at the very least 90% of all those who attempt trading lose their money. That is
more than a pathetic record. It is the merchants of loss on Wall Street that
encourage you to take that path because that is the path that generates profits and
commissions for them. It is not illegal for them to trade opposite your buys and sells.
This profitable activity for them comes under the heading of, “making a market”
and providing liquidity. Naturally, government encourages liquidity. So, the friend
of a trader’s enemy is government. What else is new? Oh yes, one more thing or
perhaps two. If you are fortunate enough to make money trading you must give a
substantial part of it to your government. In some cases not only the federal
government but also the state or province participates in your good fortune. It is no
wonder that so many politicians are, shall I say, mischievously inclined towards
other peoples money.
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 4
Since, at this point in history, it is gold that is our financial savior, this report is
loaded with many charts. There have been a number of concerned inquiries from
subscribers who are citizens of countries other than the United States about the so
called underperformance of gold in the currency of their countries. Included in this
report are a number of gold charts in various currencies. Those charts do not
appear to warrant as much concern as has been expressed. It does appear that in
most currencies gold is rising. Perhaps it is not rising at the same rate or climbing
as the dollar gold chart shows but that is something to be happy about, not
concerned about. Some may be floating on top while most citizens of the United
States are sinking to the bottom.
Comments and observations accompany a number of the charts posted below.
Please know and recognize this that the loud, raucous sound you hear in the
background is your Cap’n Ron standing in the crow’s nest bellowing, “The day of
reckoning is fast approaching. All hands man your gold and hang on for dear life.”
Our financial enemy is once again attempting to paper over mistakes. However, this
time they are shouting, “No more nice guys. We will swamp them with paper and
credit until they learn how to swim or drown in the attempt.”
We will be well grounded and safely ashore if we hold onto our gold investments.
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Gold has either bottomed at a late arriving ITD # 5 low and early arriving MED # 4
low or it may bottom at ITD # 7 low and MED # 4 low. When an item is trending
down the lows tend to arrive late and the highs tend to arrive early. In a sharp down
trend more time is spent going down then going up. Thus, the lows tend to arrive
late and the highs tend to arrive early.
GOLD DAILY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 5
Gold has closed below the trend line on the right hand side. In essence this is
meaningless unless you are an active trader. I doubt that gold will decline to the $880.00
level that some have mentioned. Gold appears to more likely bottom no later than mid
July at MED # 5 low.
GOLD WEEKLY
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The next long term high for gold is not due to arrive until 2/17/2010. The standard
deviation for arrival extends out to 7/21/2010. The 100% range for arrival extends
out to 12/15/2010.
GOLD MONTHLY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 7
GOLD QUARTERLY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 8
Gold, as measured in twelve major currencies, has been trending up over the long
term. Therefore, we can truthfully say that the United States is not the only country
burying its citizens in a massive wave of constantly depreciating fiat currency.
However, if the “Fiat Olympics” were held, the U. S. A. would clearly take first place.
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The HUI has been rising in a clearly defined channel for the past 10 months. It is
entitled to a rest. Based on the rising MACD indicator beneath the chart and MED
# 4 low and LTD # 9 low, the HUI’s rest period may be short lived. The MED # 4
low and LTD # 9 low can be seen on the weekly chart posted on the previous page.
The HUI over that 10 month period rose from a low of 150.27 to a high of 404.56.
HUI MONTHLY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 21
HUI DAILY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 22
HUI WEEKLY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 23
HECLA MINING DAILY
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HECLA MINING WEEKLY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 25
HECLA MINING MONTHLY
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DOLLAR INDEX DAILY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 27
DOLLAR INDEX WEEKLY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 28
The U. S. Dollar Index has rolled over and is clearly tending down. The MACD
indicator beneath the chart has turned bearish and should continue to move down.
DOLLAR INDEX MONTHLY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 29
Crude oil is in the inversion window for LTD # 2 low and MED # 2 low. Only Delta
numbers 1 and 2 can invert their positions. No other numbers can or ever have. It
appears that LTD # 1 high and MED # 1 high have arrived. If crude oil is going to
continue to rise and reach new highs, the price is doing exactly what it must do in
order for LTD # 2 low and MED # 2 low to invert to highs. In order for LTD # 2 low
and MED # 2 low to invert to highs there must be an in-between point ( I. P.) that is
lower than the LTD # 1 high and MED # 1 high. The current decline when it
bottoms will qualify as the in-between point.
CRUDE OIL WEEKLY
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 30
CRUDE OIL MONTHLY
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COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 31
Reports are posted Monday and Friday Updates will be posted when market action warrants.
Stay well, Ron Rosen
M I G H T Y I N S P I R I T
Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen is not a registered investment advisor. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.
COPYRIGHT 2004-2009, RONALD L. ROSEN 32