The Route To Europe

Three waves of migration through Turkey

• 1) 1979-87 (mostly Iranians);

• 2) 1988-93 (Iraqi Kurds);

• 3) 1994 onwards (diversified)

Turkey: Number of Arrests

• 1998: 98

• 1999: 187

• 2000: 850

• 2001: 1,155

The Economics of People Smuggling

• Average person pays $2,500 to be smuggle to Europe from Iraq or Iran.

• $2,500 X 200,000 = half a billion dollars a year.

Migrant Sampling

• Would consider return to home country if political situation improved:

• Iraq– 76.9%;

• Iran–84.6%;

• Afghanistan–71.4%;

Migrant Sampling (Cont.)

• Would consider return to home country if Economic situation improved:

• Iraq–46.2%

• Iran–7.7%

• Afghanistan–14.3%

Table 1: Irregular Migration in Turkey, Apprehended Cases, 1995-2000

Country of Origin 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Total

Afghanistan 24 68 81 921 3,046 8,476 9,542 22,158

Albania 1 9 792 1,026 1,461 3,289

Algeria 27 25 69 207 102 430 429 1,289

Armenia 4 2 1 98 474 491 1,070

Azerbaijan 21 3 3 10 620 2,262 2,201 5,120

Bangladesh 113 322 301 2,408 1,193 3,228 3,771 11,336

Bulgaria 21 22 39 103 1,005 1,699 2,108 4,997

Egypt 4 12 99 29 94 382 319 939

Georgia 37 9 9 5 809 3,300 3,570 7,739

Germany 1 1 372 629 579 1,582

India 2 25 18 102 189 779 897 2,012

Iran 252 362 364 1,116 5,281 6,825 8,504 22,704

Iraq 2,128 3,319 5,689 14,237 11,546 17,280 23,444 77,643

Macedonia 1 439 488 460 1,388

Moldavia 19 17 5 3,098 8,290 7,980 19,409

Morocco 28 53 93 295 369 1,401 1,905 7,033

Nigeria 1 20 30 84 137 450 419 2,356

Other - Unknown 2,028 3,289 361 5,678

Pakistan 708 435 307 1,798 2,650 5,027 5,618 16,543

PRC 1 115 545 731 1,392

Romania 68 12 107 36 3,395 4,500 4,533 12,651

Russia 5 4 52 2 1,695 4,554 4,694 11,006

Sierra Leone 20 42 462 370 894

Stateless 61 322 315 698

Syria 78 86 144 476 776 1,399 1,293 4,252

Tunisia 3 48 81 44 76 255 297 804

Ukraine 9 4 17 4 1,715 4,527 4,401 10,677

United Kingdom 2 4 233 643 442 1,324

Uzbekistan 1 1 142 587 486 1,215

Yugoslavia 13 325 1,283 1,443 6,340

Total 11, 362 18, 804 28, 439 29, 426 47,524 94,514 92,364 322,438