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This article was downloaded by: 10.3.98.104On: 13 Feb 2022Access details: subscription numberPublisher: RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG, UK
The Routledge Handbook of Agricultural Economics
Gail L. Cramer, Krishna P. Paudel, Andrew Schmitz
World food
Publication detailshttps://www.routledgehandbooks.com/doi/10.4324/9781315623351-3
Shenggen FanPublished online on: 13 Jul 2018
How to cite :- Shenggen Fan. 13 Jul 2018, World food from: The Routledge Handbook of AgriculturalEconomics RoutledgeAccessed on: 13 Feb 2022https://www.routledgehandbooks.com/doi/10.4324/9781315623351-3
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World foodNew developments
Shenggen Fan
1 Introduction
The world food sector has been fundamentally transformed over the last several decades. Much progress has been made in increasing food production as well as in reducing hunger and undernutrition. Nevertheless, challenges in feeding the future global population remain enormous, as the world faces persistent hunger and malnutrition as well as emerging chal-lenges such as demographic shifts and urbanization, climate change, continued conflict, and uncertainty in the global political landscape. Innovations in technologies, policies, and insti-tutions, as well as reforms in global and local governance, are urgently needed to reshape the global food system to produce sufficient nutritious and affordable food to meet changing food needs and to end hunger and malnutrition sustainably.
From 1960 to 2015, agricultural production more than tripled, largely due to enhanced productivity through Green Revolution technologies and the expanded use of land, water, and other natural resources. During the same period, food demand increased 2.2 percent annually and dietary preferences and patterns of consumption evolved. With a projected world popula-tion of almost 10 million by 2050, food demand would increase by 50 percent from 2013 levels. This poses several key questions: what will food supply and demand look like in 2050, and what is needed for the world to be able to feed its population?
2 Supply and demand projections: IMPACT model1
We can explore these questions by using International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI’s) International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), which is a partial equilibrium, multimarket economic model that simulates national and inter-national agricultural markets, solving for production, demand, and prices that equate supply and demand globally. The model links various modules on climate, water, crops, land use, nutrition, and health, as well as welfare analysis. Some of the information flows among these component modules are one-way (for instance, from the climate and water modules to crop simulation models) and some capture feedback loops (for example, water demand from the core mar-ket model and water supply from the water module to be reconciled to estimate water stress
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impact on crop yields). The core model includes 159 countries, 320 regions referred to as food production units, and 62 agricultural commodity markets. The model provides various climate change scenario analyses rather than forecasting and covers only agricultural commodities. The integrated projections and implications of physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends allow for various in-depth analyses on key issues of interest to policy makers (IFPRI 2017; Robinson et al. 2015b).
2.1 Supply projections
According to the latest IMPACT model supply projections, global food production will grow by approximately 60 percent by 2050 (relative to 2010 levels).2 Production will grow more rapidly in developing countries at 71 percent compared to developed countries at 29 percent. Africa and the Middle East will more than double their food production, South Asia will increase its pro-duction by 91 percent, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 72 percent. Meat production will rise globally by 66 percent and by 78 percent in developing countries. Production of fruits and vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds will grow more rapidly, by more than 80 percent globally. Cereals and roots and tuber production will grow more slowly, by around 40 percent globally, though it will double in sub-Saharan Africa (IFPRI 2017).
2.2 Demand projections
Total food demand will continue to increase over the coming decades, and the composition of diets will continue to evolve with changes in income and preferences (Figure 3.1). Staple food demand, including cereals, roots, and tubers, will grow by around 40 percent, and meat demand will grow by over 60 percent. Demand for fruits and vegetables will grow at a more rapid rate, though it is starting from lower levels. Despite population growth and climate change, per capita consumption is estimated to increase by 9 percent worldwide to reach more than 3,000 kilocalories per day. Per capita consumption of fruits and vegetables in developing countries is expected to surpass that of developed countries by 2050, which could have important nutrition and health benefits (IFPRI 2017).
Figure 3.1 Changing composition of diets per capita3
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.2, November 2015.
Note: WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
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Nevertheless, disparities in food access and the impacts of climate change imply that 592 mil-lion people will remain at risk of hunger by 2030 (Figure 3.2). By 2050, 477 million people will be at risk of hunger, 461 million of whom will live in developing countries. Those living in Africa south of the Sahara alone will account for 189 million.
3 Current and emerging challenges
3.1 Triple burden of malnutrition
Tremendous progress has been made in reducing global hunger, from 19 percent to 11 percent from 1990 to 2016 (FAO 2017). Childhood undernutrition has also declined in developing countries, where the number of stunted children under 5 years old decreased from 254 mil-lion in 1990 to 155 million in 2016 (UNICEF, WHO, and World Bank 2017). Much of this reduction occurred in rural areas, whereas the proportion of stunted children rose from 23 to 31 percent in cities between 1985 and 2011 (Paciorek et al. 2013). However, 815 million peo-ple are still estimated to be undernourished globally in 2016 (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO 2017). More than 2 billion suffer from a lack of micronutrients, the so-called hidden hunger. At the same time, the number of those considered overweight or obese has increased globally among children and adults. The number of overweight children rose by more than 50 percent from 1990 to 2011, and, as of 2015, 73 percent of all overweight children live in Africa and Asia (Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017; UNICEF, WHO, and World Bank 2017). The rise in overweight and obese adults has also been drastic – 2 million out of 5 million adults worldwide were overweight or obese in 2016 (IFPRI 2016).
This rising co-existence of energy deficiencies from undernourishment, micronutrient defi-ciencies, and over-nutrition in the form of obesity or being overweight is also referred to as the “triple burden of malnutrition” (Fan 2017). Undernourishment is the result of insufficient caloric intake and contributes to negative health outcomes with the prevalence of being under-weight, wasting, or stunting, particularly among children. Micronutrient malnutrition refers to a deficient intake of vitamins and minerals that are necessary for good health and results from poor dietary composition and disease (Gomez et al. 2013). Obesity and being overweight arise
Figure 3.2 Hunger in 2030 by climate and investment scenario
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2017), based on IMPACT model version 3.3.
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from excessive dietary energy intake and are associated with increases in the risk of noncom-municable diseases, such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Gomez et al. 2013).
While these burdens are growing globally, it is particularly a challenge for low- and middle-income countries. In Africa, 8 percent of adults over age 20 are obese, and 13 countries face seri-ous levels of under age 5 stunting, anemia in reproductive age women, and adult overweight and obesity (Haddad et al. 2016). Additionally, 2 billion people suffer from hidden hunger, especially in Africa south of the Sahara (von Grebmer et al. 2014). Middle-income countries such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico have made progress in reducing the number of the chroni-cally hungry, yet 363 million people who fit this definition – accounting for almost half of the world’s hungry – live in these countries (Fan and Cousin 2015). Malnutrition imposes high eco-nomic costs in these countries. For example, micronutrient deficiencies cost India up to 3 per-cent of its annual GDP, and noncommunicable diseases linked with being overweight or obese accounted for 13 percent of all health care expenditures in 2008 in Mexico (Stein and Qaim 2007). Rising inequalities across wealth, gender, and education hinder human capital develop-ment, which jeopardizes food security and nutrition (Fan and Cousin 2015). Rapid urbanization, which is also concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, is changing consumer prefer-ences away from traditional cereal-based diets to protein-rich diets (OECD and FAO 2014). While social protection has often provided greater access to food in these countries, assistance is often not complemented with nutrition education and is subject to poor targeting and leakages.
3.2 Urbanization
For the first time in history, more than half of the world population lives in urban areas, and by 2050, 2.5 billion people will either be born in or move to urban areas, increasing the urban population to two-thirds of the world. Africa and Asia account for 90 percent of this growth, and currently have urban populations of 40 percent and 47 percent, respectively. Furthermore, China, India, and Nigeria alone are expected to add 900 million urban dwellers by 2050 (United
Figure 3.3 Growth of urban population in major developing regions
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT (2016).
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Nations 2014). Rapid growth in urban populations (Figure 3.3) entails new and unique chal-lenges and opportunities with regards to poverty, food security, and nutrition.
Urbanization is bringing significant changes to urban food systems and agriculture. Food supplies in urban areas are more diverse than in rural areas, driven by increased urban demand for more and better food. Urban food diversity is also enhanced by infrastructure and popu-lation densities in urban centers that facilitate distribution, transportation, and technologies that allow suppliers to reach more consumers at a lower cost (Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017). Supermarkets are growing in developing countries and emerging economies, accounting for 30 to 50 percent of the food markets in Southeast Asia, Central America, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico by mid-2000s. Yet the urban poor depend on informal markets and street vendors to purchase food (Weatherspoon and Reardon 2003). The informal economy is key for urban food security due to their proximity to low-income housing areas, and it improves food availability by providing low prices and serving as an income source for the poor (Roever 2014). A survey of over 6,000 low-income neighborhood households in 11 African cities found that 70 percent of urban households depend on informal markets and street vendors for food (Resnick 2017). Urban agriculture – growing crops or raising livestock in urban or peri-urban areas – provides an additional source of food, employment, and income for urban residents. While there is a wide range in the scale of urban agriculture, from 11 percent household participation in Indonesia to 70 percent in Nicaragua and Vietnam, much of urban agriculture is utilized for household consumption (Zezza and Tasciotti 2010).
Despite the availability of diverse foods in many urban areas for wealthier consumers, the urban poor face obstacles in accessing high quality, diverse, safe, and affordable food, thereby increasing their risk of poor health and nutrition. While urban dwellers are more likely to meet protein and energy requirements than are rural dwellers, urban consumers are also more likely to have imbalanced diets with energy-dense processed foods and higher intake in calories, saturated fats, refined sugars, and salt. While urban diets also tend to have more fruits and vegetables, these diets are still low in micronutrients such as iron, zinc, and vitamin A (Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017). This shift in diets in urban areas arises from factors including the urban food environ-ment (such as the availability of energy-rich, nutrient-poor processed food and convenient fast food), changes in food habits linked to increased income, changes in employment, and changes in norms and attitudes towards traditional food.
3.3 Climate change
Climate change threatens agricultural production systems in many ways. It changes temperatures as well as amounts of rainfall, distribution, and intensity in many areas, which can negatively impact growing seasons, plant growth, and crop yields. For example, increased night-time tem-peratures can reduce rice yields by up to 10 percent for each 1°C change in minimum dry sea-son temperatures (Thornton and Lipper 2014). The IFPRI IMPACT model projects significant climate impacts on rain-fed crop yields. Between 2005 and 2050, maize yields are projected to increase by 124 percent without climate change but would increase by only 74 percent with climate change. Similarly, rice yields are projected to increase by 43 percent without climate change and by 25 percent under climate change (Robinson et al. 2015a). Climate change is projected to increase global food production by 9 percentage points less than would be the case without climate change, and is also expected to place 71 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2050 (IFPRI 2017). Many of the climate impacts on agriculture will occur through water (Thornton and Lipper 2014). The increasing variability in rainfall is expected to continue, as are occurrences of floods and droughts. The impact on freshwater systems will likely outweigh
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any benefits from the overall increase in precipitation from global warming. Global demand for water withdrawals for agriculture is projected to increase 11 percent by 2050, further adding to the water security challenge (Bruinsma 2009). As of 2010, almost 40 percent of the world’s grain production took place in water-stressed regions, yet if we continue business as usual, by 2050 we will depend on these regions for 49 percent of world grain production (Veolia Water and IFPRI 2013).
The four dimensions of food security (availability, access, utilization, and stability) are also directly affected by climate change. In terms of food availability, research indicates that crop yields are more negatively affected in tropical areas than in areas of higher latitudes, and the impact will become more severe as the degree of climate change progresses. This impact on crop productiv-ity will be especially pronounced in areas that currently face high burdens of hunger. For exam-ple, maize yields could decline on average by 5 percent in Africa and 16 percent in South Asia compared to current yields (Knox et al. 2012). Food access largely depends on household- and individual-level income. Climate change could alter the ability of households and individuals to produce certain products, as well as the prices of various inputs and resources necessary for agricultural production, thereby threatening income levels connected to food access. Food utili-zation, or the attainment of adequate nutrients from food, may be directly impacted by climate change through increased levels of carbon dioxide. Some studies have found that elevated levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were associated with decreases in the concentration of iron and zinc; for example, wheat grains showed 9 percent less zinc and 5 percent less iron (Myers et al. 2014). Climate change will also affect the availability of clean drinking water, and extreme weather events causing floods or droughts make good health care and dietary practices challeng-ing. Diet quality may also be impacted from ecological shifts and diseases in crops or food. The stability of the food system as a whole may be jeopardized under climate change, as climate is a key determinant of future price trends. Food security of the poor is heavily dependent on staple food prices, and food market volatility from supply-side or demand-side shocks from climate change will be a significant challenge (Wheeler and von Braun 2013).
At the same time, agriculture is a main contributor to climate change. The agriculture sector contributes between 19 and 29 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with nearly three-quarters of emissions occurring in developing countries. This share could grow to as much as 80 percent by 2050 (Smith et al. 2008). Total emissions from livestock from 1995 to 2005 were between 5.6 and 7.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, the major source of emissions being from feed production and land use for animal feed and pastures. The developing world accounts for 70 percent of emissions from ruminants and 53 percent from monogastrics, and these figures will continue to grow to meet growing food demand (Thornton and Lip-per 2014). Globally, agricultural emissions alone almost reach the full 2-degree target emission allowance in 2050 under business-as-usual scenarios. This indicates that the agriculture and food systems need a drastic change in order to meet future food needs sustainably (Bajzelj et al. 2014).
3.4 Conflict
Currently, 1.5 billion people in the world live in fragile, conflict-affected areas, and these peo-ple are nearly twice as likely to be malnourished than those in other developing countries. Food insecurity is often a direct result consequence of conflict. Conflict destroys agricultural assets and infrastructure, reduces food availability, and increases risk in accessing food markets due to destruction of physical infrastructure, which also drives up local food prices (Breisinger et al. 2014b). Studies have shown the impact of past conflicts on food security. The Rwan-dan genocide impacted child stunting, the exposure to war in Burundi decreased children’s
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height-for-age, and even exposure to conflict in utero or during early life had negative implica-tions for height-for-age (Breisinger et al. 2014a).
At the same time, food insecurity can fuel conflicts, especially in an environment of unsta-ble political regimes, a youth bulge, slow economic development and growth, and inequality (Brinkman and Hendrix 2011). Rising food prices in particular have increased risk of political and social unrest. The 2007–2008 global food crisis led to riots in 28 countries, and food inse-curity played a large role in sparking the Arab awakening (Maystadt et al. 2014). For example, Yemen has experienced various conflicts over the past decade. In addition to Al Qaeda-linked activities, the country suffered multiple economic shocks, including the 2007–2008 global food crisis and food price spikes in 2011, and has dealt with an influx of internally displaced people, all contributing to food insecurity and conflicts (Breisinger et al. 2014b).
3.5 Uncertainty in global political landscape
Despite commitments to sustainable development and food security in 2016, the outlook for the future global development landscape is uncertain, namely in the prospects for economic growth and changing global political paradigms. Economic prospects vary greatly across coun-tries and regions. While Asia and other major emerging economies indicate robust growth, Africa, south of the Sahara, is experiencing a slowdown, which threatens to reverse gains there in poverty reduction and food security (IMF 2016). Furthermore, several sub-Saharan coun-tries will undergo transitions in political leadership, and political uncertainties in Latin America will lead to uncertainties in economic and social stability. New political regimes in Asia, North America, and Western Europe are likely to have a shift in their approach to trade and develop-ment, as the changes in advanced economies adds further to uncertain domestic and global growth. Rising income inequality within countries in the context of rapid globalization also has uncertain implications for global trade and immigration (World Bank Group 2017).
4 Discussion: future strategies to fill the gaps
4.1 Innovations in technologies
As the world population continues to grow and face competing demands for natural resources in agriculture, urbanization, industry, and energy, food production growth to meet increasing demands will need to come from greater productivity than from land expansion. To achieve this, accelerated investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) on technologies to produce more with less will be crucial. Technologies should focus not only on increasing yield and productivity, but also on achieving multiple wins, including climate adaptation, GHG mitigation, and nutrition. Biofortification, the process of increasing vitamin and mineral den-sity in crops through plant breeding, transgenic techniques, and agronomic practices, improves human health and nutrition in a cost-effective way that can reach underserved, rural populations (Bouis and Saltzman 2017). Studies also have found that improved crop varieties or types, such as drought-tolerant or heat-tolerant crops, can increase crop yields while reducing yield variability, increase climate resilience, and increase soil carbon storage. The use of crop covers increases soil fertility and yields due to nitrogen fixing in soils, improves water holding capacity, and has high mitigation potential from increased soil carbon sequestration (Bryan et al. 2011).
Research based on the IMPACT model projects that the food-insecure population in devel-oping countries by 2050 could be reduced by 12 percent with successful development and adoption of nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) technologies, by 9 percent with wider adoption of
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no-till technology, and by 8 percent if heat-tolerant varieties and precision agriculture (PA) are adopted more widely (Rosegrant et al. 2014).4 It will be important to target technologies based on the needs and contexts of regions and countries. For example, heat-tolerant and drought-tolerant varieties in North America and South Asia; drought tolerance in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa; and greater crop protection in Eastern Europe, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa would be particularly beneficial. Further-more, NUE is critical for resource efficiency in most developing regions, particularly in South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and sub-Saharan Africa. These technologies will also be important to address abiotic stress expected from climate change. To sustainably meet future needs under climate change, increases in crop productivity through enhanced investment in agricultural R&D, and resource-conserving management and increased investment in irrigation will be key (Rosegrant et al. 2014).
4.2 Innovations in policies
Fiscal policy can also contribute to multiple wins in meeting future food needs under climate change by ensuring that food prices reflect the full cost of production to the environment. Recent research using the IMPACT model in collaboration with Oxford University projected the potential impact of GHG taxation of food commodities, based on their contribution to GHG emissions, on climate and health outcomes. Average taxes in the model were highest for animal-sourced foods, such as beef, lamb, and pork and poultry, intermediate for vegetable oils, milk and eggs, and rice, while taxes were low on other crops such as fruits, vegetables, grains, and legumes. This resulted in increases in prices and reductions in consumption, which were high for beef, vegetable oils, milk, and lamb, and intermediate for poultry. Under a tax scenario that was optimized for each region to maximize health benefits, the analysis projected 510,000 avoided deaths due to changes in diet and reduced global GHG emissions by 8.6 percent. Levying such targeted GHG emission pricing to reflect the environmental impact of food commodities can promote health while mitigating climate change. Health benefits from reductions in obesity related to emissions-based taxes on foods, particularly animal-sourced foods, would outweigh potential health losses from increases in the numbers of people who are underweight (Spring-mann et al. 2017). This would also allow tax revenues to be redirected to support the production of more climate-smart, nutritious foods.
In addition, tailored policies and programs to populations uniquely impacted by current trends in food security and nutrition, namely rural small-scale farmers and the urban poor, are important. In order to enhance climate adaptation in smallholder agriculture, policies can promote land rights and efficient land markets (including new arrangements in land rental markets), and improve risk-management, mitigation, and adaptation strategies through insur-ance and information services. Social protection systems can build on successes, such as Ethio-pia’s Productive Safety Net Program, to provide both safety nets and agricultural support to help secure basic livelihoods while building resilience to shocks. At the same time, measures to increase the access of the urban poor to healthy and nutritious foods and to promote healthy choices will be important.
4.3 Innovations in institutions
Under rapid urbanization, institutions have a key role in encouraging inclusive value chains. Institutions can support the “quiet revolution” taking place in traditional value chains, as seen in the expansion and modernization of farms, mills, and markets in Asia’s rice value chain
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(Reardon et al. 2014). Institutions can also enhance vertical and horizontal coordination by promoting efficiency-building competition among different farming models such as coopera-tives and family farms, and also by improving farm-to-market synchronization. Urban and rural policy makers can coordinate to support the flow of products into cities and also to fully harness the opportunities available from growing urbanization to integrate smallholders, traders, and others into the urban markets along the full food value chain.
Furthermore, institutions are crucial for climate-smart agriculture, particularly in serving as a center for information, innovation, investment, and insurance. To encourage adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices, local institutions will facilitate access to many resources and to information for stakeholders. Institutions providing insurance and related information for climate-smart agriculture will need to be more inclusive in incorporating local perspectives while tailoring the products and practices for smallholders. As many climate-smart agricultural practices will need to occur at a large spatial scale and over a longer time frame, institutions will be key for coordina-tion and continued support through social safety nets. Additionally, institutions can promote part-nerships for climate-smart adaption and support various climate-friendly financial arrangements.
4.4 Reforms in global and local governance
To achieve the end of hunger and malnutrition, along with the other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), global governance of development efforts must be reformed for greater stability of investments and the inclusion of developing countries. In particular, emerging economies, such as those of Brazil, China, and India, have the opportunity to play a greater role in global governance. These countries have significant potential to contribute to global food security by not only making progress in alleviating domestic hunger and malnutrition, but also by increasing trade, investments, and exchanges in technology. Particularly in the current global landscape of uncertainty around advanced economies’ openness to trade and investment in developing coun-tries, new entities led by the emerging economics, such as the New Development Bank (NDB), could significantly expand their role in the global food system.
In the globalized international arena, promoting a global trade regime that is open, transparent, and fair will continue to have important benefits for food security. Trade policies should seek to reduce transport and transaction costs and increase productivity. Harmful trade policies, such as import tariffs and export bans, can hurt the poor by impacting their ability to access or afford food and also hinder the efficiency of agricultural markets. Open, transparent, and fair trade can fill domestic gaps with appropriate imports and enable domestic production in countries to be geared toward what is most resource-efficient. Furthermore, trade can entail environmental benefits through avoided domestic environmental costs by importing crops and reducing environmental costs from food production based on domestic resource availability and efficiency (Martinez-Melendez and Ben-nett 2016). Trade can also facilitate the creation of global and regional grain reserves, especially in poor, food-importing countries, to help stabilize grain prices. Increasing the transfer of technology, technical assistance, and investments through South–South cooperation, including joint ventures, cooperation contracts, and public–private partnerships, could also be beneficial.
Global governance of food security and nutrition also needs enhanced engagement with multiple stakeholders, namely civil society and the private sector. Civil society organizations have been key in advocating for consumers and producers, especially smallholder farmers, while the private sector is a major player in the food processing industry. The Committee on World Food Security (CFS) is well placed to strengthen the involvement of multi-stakeholders by building on its current arrangements. The role of CFS can be further expanded to coordi-nate at the national and regional levels, promote accountability, and develop a global strategic
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framework. In this regard, it will be important to provide CFS the authority to adopt strategies and policy guidelines with appropriate accountability as well as enforcement mechanisms.
At the same time, local governance of both rural and urban areas will be just as important as urbanization continues. Horizontal coordination across sectors and vertical coordination among different tiers of government is needed. In particular, governance of the informal economy will have a growing importance in food security and nutrition. Urban households, particularly the urban poor, depend largely on the informal sector for food security as well as employment. Small-scale farmers in rural areas also benefit from the informal economy, as the low barrier to entry allows them to participate in the rural–urban agricultural value chain. Effectively incor-porating the informal economy in national policies and governing the informal sector is an increasingly important challenge, as legislation in many African countries penalizes informal economy participants, and reported violence against members of the informal sector has been rising over the last two decades (Resnick 2017).
5 Conclusions
As the world faces challenges in the triple burden of malnutrition (undernutrition, food inse-curity, overweight and obesity), urbanization, climate change, conflict, and uncertainty in the decades ahead, research will be critical to continue to provide insights into how to address these challenges and reshape the global food system to achieve multiple development goals.
Areas for future research
There is a need for more data and research to understand current opportunities and challenges to inform effective policy design and implementation. As much of the current data on food security are either outdated or incomplete, comprehensive, precise, and timely data on the state of poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition are needed. Evidence on the factors that influence food choices, current nutrition gaps and dietary patterns, and various impacts of food environ-ments will also be required. It will also be important for such data to be disaggregated (for example by gender, age, and income) to be able to better inform policies that are designed and tailored to particular needs.
Research on the enabling environments for improved food security and nutrition will also be necessary. Enabling environments for food involve social, policy, institutional, and spatial dimensions across individual, national, regional, and global levels. A better understanding of what drives malnutrition and food insecurity across this wide span, for example the impact of supermarkets on dietary choices, can aid in addressing the underlying drivers of the challenges in food security. Research in this regard will also need to go beyond the public sector to shed light on the important role of the private sector, particularly in creating incentives and improv-ing the access to and affordability of healthy foods. Potential areas for the private sector to take a lead in addressing food security and nutrition requires further research.
Notes
1 Similar projections are found in the OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016–2025. 2 The scenarios used in the IMPACT model draw from the fifth assessment report by the Intergovernmen-
tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and are defined by two major components: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), representing various socioeconomic challenges to climate mitigation and adaption, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), representing climates based on various greenhouse gas
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emission levels. The projections in this chapter assume population and income changes based on SSP2 (middle-of-the-road scenario following historical trends) and emissions based on RCP8.5 (the most rapid climate change scenario).
3 Projections are based on SSP@, no climate change scenario. 4 Among a variety of high-tech and low-tech, traditional, conventional, and advanced practices with
proven potential for yield improvement, a select group of technologies were evaluated under the IMPACT model: no-till, integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), precision agriculture (PA), organic agriculture (OA), nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE), water harvesting, drip irrigation, sprinkler irrigation, improved varieties (drought-tolerant characters), improved varieties (heat-tolerant char-acters), and crop protection.
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