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The San Simeon and Parkfield Earthquakes
What the CISN did well(and could have been done better)
M3 quake ≠ M6+ quake
• Big quakes – Have extended source regions– Are infrequent– Exercise software in unexpected
ways– Shine spotlights on systems
deficiencies– Overwhelm humans
unaccustomed to response pressures and demand for information
– Rarely happen when convenient
San SimeonMw6.5 Earthquake
• Quake occurred December 22, 2003 at 11:15:56 AM (PST)– Monday– Staff gone for
vacation• Instrumentation was
(and still is) sparse• Instrumentation was
(and still is) analogQuake occurred on edge of NC/SC networks
12/22/2003 19:15:56 00:00:00Rupture initiates
12/22/2003 19:16:20 00:00:24
?
Quick Look Hypocenter
12/22/2003 19:20:25 00:04:29Final hypocenter & Md 5.6
12/22/2003 19:20:58 00:05:02ML 6.4
12/22/2003 19:22:40 00:06:44Mechanism & Mw 6.5
12/22/2003 19:24:13 00:08:171st ShakeMap - ML 6.4
12/22/2003 19:38:28 00:22:32ShakeMap update - Mw 6.5
San Simeon “Human” Time-line
Time Elapsed(GMT) hr:mn:sc
19:32:00 00:16:04 Seismologist review and aftershock probabilities
20:00:00 00:44:04 OES conference call with CISN scientists20:16:00 01:00:04 First HAZUS runs completed20:30:00 01:14:04 Release of Internet Quick Report21:54:00 02:38:04 Seismologist review of finite source
12/22/2003 20:30:00 01:14:041st Internet Quick Report
02:38:04
12/22/2003 22:14:00 02:58:04ShakeMap update
12/22/2003 23:33:00 04:17:04ShakeMap update - line source
12/23/2003 02:34:00 07:18:04ShakeMap update - Templeton data
12/24/2003 00:28:00 29:12:04ShakeMap update - Cambria data
12/23/2003 17:34:00 22:18:04Special Earthquake Report
The Evolution of ShakeMap & HAZUS estimates ShakeMap UTC Time Building related
economic loss (Millions)
1st ShakeMap (ML6.4) 12/22 19:24:13
$30.5
ShakeMap Update: Finite-source dimension
12/22 23:33:00
$64.1
ShakeMap Update: Templeton, CA data added
12/23 02:34:00
$290.0
ShakeMap Update: Cambria, CA data added
12/24 00:28:00
$264.4
“Current” ShakeMap 03/24 $325.4
J. Fenton
So far, so good….Here’s what could have gone better
1. Technical issues– Competing EqintheNews pages on USGS servers in
Golden, CO and Menlo Park, CA (fixed)– No ability to update aftershock probabilities (now can
be done manually)– Clients inundated with automated email/pager
(potentially solvable)– Akamai/Reston firewall problems blocked recenteqs
access (fixed)– CIT ShakeMap data exchange broken (fixed)– Dedicated com links from Parkfield broke (fixed)
2. Human Response– Inconsistent statements on mapped fault and name
of quake on Day 1– No communications with ShakeMap users about
ShakeMap updates– Failure to exercise existing response procedures– SC "duty seismologist" for ShakeMap unknown in
NC– ~2 days to establish an internal scientific email
distribution list and ftp site– No 7 X 24 contact for USGS networking/security
staff. Even after contact, fix took almost 2 weeks.
• Limited station coverage and strong motion data in region compromised ShakeMap quality and science
Distribution of ShakeMap stations
= RT = Non-RT
3. Data Quality
• Prototype operational– better locations– detected more
earthquakes
4. Statewide pick exchange and association
ParkfieldOverview
• Quake occurred Tuesday, September 28, 2004 at 11:15:56 AM (PST)– Key personnel in St.
Louis for National Earthquake Conference
• Quake occurred within densely instrumented portion of NC network– SM data mostly non-RT
Parkfield time-line
Earthquake Information UTC Time Elapsed time hr:mn:scOrigin Time (OT) 09/28 17:15:24 00:00:00Quick Look hypocenter 09/28 17:15:55 00:00:31Final hypocenter & Md 5.8 09/28 17:19:57 00:04:33
First Motion mechanism 09/28 17:20:10 00:04:46Local Magnitude ML 6.0 09/28 17:20:30 00:05:06
1st ShakeMap completed 09/28 17:21:16 00:05:52Moment Tensor Solution Mw 5.9 09/28 17:22:23 00:06:59
2nd ShakeMap completed 09/28 17:28:08 00:07:44MS relocated by duty seismologist 09/28 17:46:-- 00:31:--Analyst review of moment tensor 09/28 17:47:-- 00:32:--ShakeMap update due to relocation 09/28 17:53:-- 00:38:--Finite fault line source 09/20 17:54:-- 00:39Probability statement released for ML5.9 09/28 18:00:-- 00:45:--
ShakeMap update with manual finite fault 09/28 18:20:-- 01:05:--Update to Mw6.0 & probability revision 09/28 18:23:-- 01:08:--ShakeMap update with 6 stations 09/28 21:18:-- 04:03:--Earthquake Report at cisn.org 09/28 21:45:-- 04:30:--1st Internet Quick Report at cisn-edc.org 09/29 01:56:-- 08:41:--ShakeMap update with 1 added station 09/29 05:20:-- 12:05:--Four additional IQR releases 09/29-10/27
ShakeMap updates with CGS/NSMP data 10/08 --:--:-- 10 days
Autom
atic
OE
S/C
ISN
exchange
Locations almost perfect
100 km distance weighting
28 SEP 2004, 17:15 SEQUENCE NO. 1, ID NO. 51147892 ADJUSTMENTS (KM) I ORIGIN LAT N LON W Z NWR RMS DT DLAT DLON DZ RR NF MOD 1 23.98 35 50.15 120 21.53 5.00 250 1.59 0.600 -6.516 7.195 0.000 9.707 3 PGH 2 24.58 35 46.63 120 26.32 5.00 250 1.00 -0.015 -0.476 0.404 0.000 0.624 3 PGH FREE DEPTH 3 24.57 35 46.38 120 26.58 5.00 250 1.00 -0.453 0.106 0.273 -4.461 4.470 4 PGH BEGIN DISTANCE WEIGHTING BEGIN RESIDUAL WEIGHTING DEPTH ADJUSTMENT DAMPED 4 24.11 35 46.43 120 26.77 0.54 49 0.75 9.804 3.234 -4.745 15.70216.719 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 5 33.92 35 48.18 120 23.61 16.24 51 9.97 -5.882 -1.940 2.847 -9.42110.032 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 6 28.03 35 47.13 120 25.50 6.82 51 3.82 -2.353 -0.776 1.139 -3.769 4.013 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 7 25.68 35 46.71 120 26.26 3.05 51 1.69 -0.941 -0.310 0.456 -1.507 1.605 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 8 24.74 35 46.55 120 26.56 1.54 51 0.98 -0.376 -0.124 0.182 -0.603 0.642 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 9 24.36 35 46.48 120 26.68 0.94 49 0.81 -0.151 -0.050 0.073 -0.241 0.257 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK 10 24.21 35 46.45 120 26.73 0.70 49 0.77 -0.060 -0.020 0.029 -0.096 0.103 4 PGH DEPTH ADJUSTMENT DAMPED 11 24.15 35 46.44 120 26.75 0.60 49 0.75 9.334 3.234 -4.736 15.61116.631 4 PGH RMS INCREASE - MOVE HYPO 0.60 BACK
24 hours
10 days later
Web traffic• Request or hit
count peak of 630,000/min (10,500/sec)
• 300,000 different IP addresses on day 1
• 100GB transferred on day 1 (typically 8 GB)
Did You Feel It?
• 7,000 questionnaires submitted for this event in the first hour
• 14,174 total
4:30
8:41
Parkfield Issues
• Technical– Mainshock and two M5 aftershocks initially mislocated
(fixed)– Strong motion data exchange from CGS hung (fixed?)– Reviewed Mw update had to be forced (not fixed)– Incorrect aftershock M5 magnitudes (fixed?)
• Human– Duty seismologist failed to follow procedures and
aftershock message was delayed– Staff overload because key individuals in St Louis
• Data– Most strong-motion data non-RT and recorded on film
Summary
• CISN delivered rapid and reliable information for San Simeon and Parkfield quakes.
• Technical “glitches” were addressable
• Human “glitches” challenging
• Limited instrumentation and data quality remain a significant impediment