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The Science of Climate Change and
Fisheries
Excerpts from the ICES/PICES/IOC Symposium,
25-29 April 2010, Sendai, Japan
Adi Kellermann, Head of Science
International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)
Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries:
Forecasting impacts, assessing ecosystem
responses, and evaluating management strategies
• more than 300 participants from 36 countries
• six workshops
• 210 oral presentations in 10 sessions
• 115 posters
The Sendai symposium: scope and volume
Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries:
Forecasting impacts, assessing ecosystem
responses, and evaluating management strategies
Forecasting impacts: from climate to fish, from fish to markets
Sustainable strategies in a warming climate
Downscaling variables from global models
Species-specific responses, ecosystem responses
Geographical gradients of responses (near-shore, shelf, oceanic; latitudinal)
Impacts on coastal communities and evaluating human responses
Contemporary and next generation models, advance and approaches
The Sendai symposium: theme and sessions
Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries:
Forecasting impacts, assessing ecosystem
responses, and evaluating management strategies
Forecasting impacts: from climate to fish, from fish to markets
Sustainable strategies in a warming climate
Downscaling variables from global models
Species-specific responses, ecosystem responses
Geographical gradients of responses (near-shore, shelf, oceanic; latitudinal)
Impacts on coastal communities and evaluating human responses
Contemporary and next generation models, advance and approaches
The Sendai symposium: theme and sessions
Environment is Changing Rapidly
IPCC (2007) anticipated increase of 1.1 oC to 6.4 oC by
2100
Nielsen@Sendai 2010
Even without factoring in climate
change fisheries are in trouble
From Sumaila@Sendai, and Martell (1999)
Bluefin tuna in the Atlantic …
Lingcod in British
Columbia …
What are the climate change impacts?
• Productivity and distribution of fish biomass in the global ocean will be affected:
• Shifts in distributional ranges of marine species;
• Changes in ocean primary productivity;
• Shifts in timing of peak abundance and migration of biological communities;
• Mortalities and physiological stress by expansion of oxygen minimum zones and hypoxia areas;
• Ocean acidification, which affects calcification, other physiological processes and growth of marine species.
Sumaila@Sendai 2010
Impact of climate change on fisheries
• Climate change will impact human welfare:
• Catches;
• Food security;
• Catch (landed) values;
• Cost of fishing;
• Profits to fishing companies;
• Income to fishers;
• Economic rent to resource owners;
• The distribution of benefits to different countries, regions and groups.
Sumaila@Sendai 2010
Forecasting impacts: physics to fish, ecosystems
Physiology
Species distribution
Metabolism
Life history (body size:
mortality, maturity; growth)
Productivity, degradation
Population dynamics
Habitat
suitability
Ocean conditions
tolerance
Temperature
Acidity
Oxygen
Recruitment
JuvenileAdult
Advection
Pla
nkto
n p
roductivity a
nd
com
mu
nity s
tructu
re
Modified from Cheung et al.@Sendai 2010
How has climate change impacted marine
food-webs in the past, and how might we
predict changes in the future?
John K. Pinnegar, Georg Engelhard, Julia Blanchard, Joe
Scutt-Phillips, William Cheung
International Symposium: Climate Change Effects on Fish
& Fisheries, Sendai, Japan. Session A2
Monday 26th April, 2010
E6 E7 E8 E9 F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8
52
51
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31
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Longitude
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
Latitu
de
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
Water Depth (m)
The North Sea Ecosystem:
•The North Sea is a semi-enclosed basin with a depth ranging from 30m – 200m
•The ecosystem is dominated by soft-bottom habitats (sand, mud, gravel)
The north Sea harbours a wide range of fish stocks exploited mainly by: France,
Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, England, Scotland, Denmark.
ICES Stock-Assessment Areas
Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Marsdiep SST
Dover SST
Central England Air
Torungen SST
HADISST North Sea
Helgoland SST
Cool period
in the early
1970s
Dramatic
warming
after 1988/89Warm period
in 1930s
ºC
Note the generally close
correlation between time
series & the overall
warming trend during the
20th Century
There have been big
changes in sea surface
temperature (SST)
Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010
Changes in fish distribution (across Europe)
Temperature is one of the primary
factors, together with food availability
and suitable spawning grounds that
determine the large-scale distribution
patterns of fish.
Because most fish species prefer a
specific temperature range, an
expansion or contraction of the
distribution range often coincides with
long-term changes in temperature
and/or climate.
The recent warming trend in the
northeast Atlantic has coincided with
an apparent northward shift in the
distribution of fish species from
southerly latitudes
Therm
al perf
orm
ance
Plaice
Flounder
Cod
Seabass
From Freitas et al. (2007)
Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010
However there have also
been big changes fishing
pressure……..
Fishing mortality rates have been
higher in the southern North Sea than
in the north (Heath et al., 2003, Heath et
al., 2007).
Apparent changes in distribution (as
indicated by Perry et al. 2005) could
simply be a consequence of local
patterns of fishing pressure and
different rates of depletion in spatially
segregated sub-stocks.
(MEFEPO)Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010
What will distribution shifts
mean for fisheries?
•Populations may move away from (or towards) the area where fishing fleets
operate.
•Distribution changes may have significant consequences for the distance
that must be travelled by fishing boats to reach the target resources with
implications for fuel usage and time at sea.
•Also species distributions may migrate across the boundaries where quotas
belong to different nations.
•Species may move outside the boundaries of marine protected areas /
fishery closure areas
•Incoming species may be commercially exploitable and therefore offer new
opportunities for fisheries.
Pinnegar et al., Sendai 2010
Johann Bell
Climate change, fisheries and aquaculture in the
Pacific: Implications for food security,
livelihoods & economic
growth
Roles of fisheries and aquaculture
• Food security
• Livelihoods
• Economic
growth and
government
revenue
Johann Bell, Sendai 2010
Food security
%
11
%
%
• Per capita fish consumption - rural (kg)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples only
Range x-y%
90
147
98
50
200
61
11562
43 77
10
252155
3375
Animal
protein50-94 %
Subsistence
fishing47-91 %
Johann Bell, Sendai 2010
Economic contributions
%
11
%
%
• Government revenue GDP
%
11%%
%
%
Examples only
Range x-y%
11%
22%
11%
42%
20%
20%
10%
Johann Bell, Sendai 2010
Livelihoods
%
11
%
%
• Coastal households selling fish (%)
%
11%%
%
%
Examples only
Range x-y%
27
48
51
46
21
58
54
26 54
86
6246
61
Examples only
Regional average
1st and 2nd income =
47%
Johann Bell, Sendai 2010
Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change on
Coastal Communities: The Case of the north coast of java small-pelagic
fisheries
Akhmad FauziBogor Agricultural University (IPB)
Subandono DiposaptonoMinistry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Republic of Indonesia
Suzy AnnaPadjadjaran University, Bandung Indonesia
23
SEA LEVEL RISE IN INDONESIA
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 200460
70
80
90
100
110
120
Ele
va
si
(c
m)
Tahun
Jepara
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Semarang
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Tanjung PriokJakarta
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
220
240
260
280
Ele
vasi (c
m)
Tahun
Sorong
140
160
180
200 Biak
160
180
200
220 Kupang
260
280
300
320
340
Batam
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
220
240
260
280
Ele
vasi (c
m)
Tahun
Sorong
140
160
180
200 Biak
160
180
200
220 Kupang
260
280
300
320
340
Batam
Sea Level is rising around Indonesia
at 6-8 mm/year
1990 2000
2000
20041980
1990
BaliINDIAN OCEAN
PACIFIC OCEAN
Source: Diposaptono,2009
Impacts of climate variability on small-scale
fisheries
• Productivity declines on average around 80%
• Unit rent (proxy for gross incomes) declines from US$ 3000 to US$ 2000 per gear per year
• Per capita income declines between US$ 1.4 and US$ 0.6 per capita per day
• In 2005 rising fuel price adds to “double jeopardy” of poverty
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Ge
ar P
rod
uct
ivit
y (t
on
/ve
sse
l)
Axis Title
Fishing Productivity
Payang
drift gillnet
Set gillnet
-
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Axi
s Ti
tle
Unit rent (US$) per year
What if uncertainties due to climate variability persist?
• Stay as fishers no matter
what
• Fishermen is the
employment of the last
resort
• Fishing is life style
preference
• Reluctant to move out
• Develop strategies to
deal with uncertainties
0%
83%
17%
Choice if uncertainties persist
change profession
stay as fishermen
don't know
• Climate Change impacts on marine ecosystems, including fisheries, now a major area of research,
• particular advancements in the area of Earth System modeling, in linking climate, ecosystems and socio-economics;
• however, the global view of climate impacts on fish and fisheries is patchyand still emerging
• Validating higher trophic level outputs, and social, economic and behavioral mechanisms is still difficult, given the limited amount of comparable data
• Shelf models are starting to be developed, but there are technical issues to be resolved on the boundary conditions between shelf models and global models, particularly in continental shelves and upwelling areas (where fishery productivity is greatest)
• Climate, fishing, nutrient enrichment, habitat loss, toxics and other human-driven issues are confounded by additive to multiplicative factors. Understanding their relative knock-on impacts is of interest to society
Summary (1/2)
• The latitudinal response to climate change (by both species and ecosystems) is inverse to the adaptive capacity of societies- access to science and adaptation resources must be facilitated so as to contribute to environmental justice issues
• Impacts to fishing sector in developing countries may be 2-3 times higher than in developed countries, requiring a higher adaptation costs than developed countries under all the scenarios considered;
Thank you for listening!
Summary (2/2)
