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The “Shale Revolution”
Myths and Realities
Energy Growth Conference
First Energy Capital
Toronto, Ontario
November 19, 2013
J. David Hughes
Global Sustainability Research Inc.
Post Carbon Institute
- The Shale Revolution and Conventional Wisdom
Points to be covered:
- SHALE (TIGHT) OIL – A look at the fundamentals with
examples from the Permian Basin, Bakken and Eagle
Ford
- Bakken and Eagle Ford production forecast
- SHALE GAS – A look at the fundamentals with
examples from the Haynesville and Marcellus (with a
quick look at LNG exports from Western Canada)
- IMPLICATIONS for long term energy sustainability
The Shale Revolution
• Began with the application of high-volume, multi-stage, hydraulic-
fracturing of shale for gas in the Barnett Field of eastern Texas.
• Now accounts for 40% of U.S. gas production.
• The technology was first applied to oil extraction in the Bakken
Field of Montana and North Dakota.
• Allowed a 50% increase in U.S. oil production reversing the long
standing decline from peak U.S. production in 1970.
• Nearly 35% of upstream investment in lower 48 exploration and
development will be applied to the Bakken and Eagle Ford tight oil
plays in 2013.
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Conventional Wisdom
• The United States is on the verge of Energy Independence thanks
to the “SHALE REVOLUTION”.
• Shale Gas production will continue to grow for the foreseeable
future (2040 at least) and prices will remain below $4.50/mcf for
the next 10 years and below $6.00/mcf for the next 20 years.
• Shale Gas can replace very substantial amounts of oil for
transport and coal for electricity generation.
• The way is clear for U.S. LNG exports to monetize the shale
bounty. Large scale LNG exports of shale gas from Canada will
provide a bonanza.
• Tight Oil will allow U.S. production to exceed that of Saudi Arabia
and U.S. imports will shrink to zero.
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Tri
llio
n C
ub
ic F
eet
per
Year
Year
Net LNG Imports Net Canadian Imports Dry Gas Production
U.S. Gas Production and Imports, 1998-2012
Dry Gas Production
Net Canadian Imports
Net LNG Imports
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from EIA current to August, 2012)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2011 2012 2013
Billi
on
Cu
bic
Feet
per
Day
Year
U.S. Dry Gas Production, 2010-2013
U.S. production plateau September 2012 - July 2013
(data from EIA Natural Gas Monthly, October, 2013, 3 month trailing moving average) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Tri
llio
n C
ub
ic F
eet
per
Year
Year
LNG Imports Canada Imports Shale Gas
Alaska Coalbed Methane Tight Gas
Associated Conventional Offshore
U.S. Natural Gas Supply Projection by Source, 2010-2040,
EIA Reference Case 2013
Shale Gas
50
% o
f 20
40
Pro
du
ctio
n
55% increase in
production by 2040
Tight Gas
Conventional
Offshore
Associated
Alaska
U.S. domestic consumption
(data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Tables 13 and 14, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/excel/yearbyyear.xlsx) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039
An
nu
al G
as P
rod
uc
tion
(Trillio
n c
ub
ic fe
et)
Gas P
rice (
$U
S/m
cf)
Year
Russian Gas Price Indonesia LNG Gas Price in Japan U.S. Henry Hub Gas Price EIA Forecast U.S. Gas Price ($2011) Actual U.S. Gas Production EIA Forecast U.S. Gas Production
EIA Projections of Gas Price and U.S. Production
Compared to History, 1995-2040
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2012 (data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013, EIA, 2012; International Monetary Fund)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Oil
Gas
Gas
Oil
(data from Baker-Hughes, November, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
U.S. Rig Count, 2000-2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Billi
on
Cu
bic
Feet
per
Day
Year
Other
Austin Chalk
Bone Spring
Bossier
Antrim
Niobrara
Bakken
Woodford
Eagle Ford
Fayetteville
Marcellus
Barnett
Haynesville
U.S. Shale Gas Production by Play, 2000-2012
(data from Drillinginfo, September, 2012, fitted with 3 month centered moving average including data up to June, 2012)
Barnett Haynesville
40% of U.S. production
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Billi
on
Cu
bic
Feet
per
Day
Shale Play
U.S. Shale Gas Production by Play – mid 2012
(data from DI Desktop, September, 2012, for production in most cases through May-June, 2012)
Top 3 Plays = 66% of Total
Top 6 Plays = 88% of Total
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2012
The Shale Play Life Cycle
• Discovery followed by leasing frenzy.
• Drilling boom follows to meet “held-by-production” lease
requirements.
• Sweet spots identified, targeted and drilled off.
• Gas production rises rapidly and is maintained for cash-flow
despite potentially uneconomic full-cycle costs.
• Sweet spots become saturated and well quality and field
production decline.
• Plays like the Haynesville become middle aged after just five
years.
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2012
0
500
1000
1500
2000
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3000
3500
4000
0
1
2
3
4
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7
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9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nu
mb
er o
f Op
era
ting
Wells
G
as P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Bil
lio
n c
ub
ic f
eet
per
day)
Year
Gas Production
Number of Wells
Haynesville Gas Production and Number of
Operating Wells, 2006-2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, July, 2013, three month trailing moving average)
Peak January 2012
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Gas P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d c
ub
ic f
eet
per
Day)
Months on Production
Haynesville Type Gas Well Decline Curve
(data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, March, 2013)
Yearly Declines
First year = 66%
Second year = 49%
Third year = 41%
Fourth year = 49%
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Nu
mb
er o
f Op
era
ting
pre
-2012 W
ells
G
as P
rod
ucti
on
(B
illi
on
cu
bic
feet
per
Day)
Year
Production from pre-2012 Wells
Number of pre-2012 Wells
Overall Field Decline for Haynesville Gas Production
based on Production Decline from pre-2012 Wells
Overall Field Decline = 47%
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, March, 2013)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
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3500
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Nu
mb
er o
f Wells
A
vera
ge
Pro
du
cti
on
per
Well
(T
ho
usan
d c
ub
ic f
eet
per
day)
Year
Average Production per Well
Number of Wells
Haynesville Average Production per Well
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, March, 2013)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2009 2010 2011 2012
An
nu
al N
um
ber o
f Wells
Ad
ded
A
nn
ual
Pro
du
cti
on
Ad
ded
per
Well
(T
ho
usan
d c
ub
ic f
eet
per
day)
Year
Yearly Production Added per Well
Yearly Wells Added
Haynesville Annual Production Added per New Well
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, March, 2013)
Need 680 wells per year
to keep production flat
Haynesville Sweet Spot Well Footprint
1 mile
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Pro
du
cti
on
(b
illi
on
cu
bic
feet
per
day)
County
Pennsylvania Marcellus Production By County
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Top 2 counties = 46% of production
Top 4 counties = 68% of production
Top 6 counties = 85% of production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36
Gas P
rod
ucti
on
(M
cf
per
Day)
Months on Production
Bradford (24%)
Susquehanna (22%)
Lycoming (12%)
Greene (10%)
Tioga (10%)
Washington (9%)
Remaining 27 Counties (15%)
Type Decline Curves for Marcellus Horizontal Wells by County
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Pro
du
cti
on
(b
illi
on
cu
bic
feet
per
day)
County
Remaining Well Life
First 3 years
Estimated Ultimate Recovery for Pennsylvania Marcellus
Horizontal Wells By County
62%-77% produced in first 3 years.
EIA EUR estimate of 1.56 bcf
underestimates best counties.
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Well Footprint – Dimock, Susquehanna County, PA
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
1 Mile
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Gas P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d c
ub
ic f
eet
per
Day)
Months on Production
Haynesville
Marcellus
Barnett
Fayetteville
Woodford
Type Gas Well Decline Curves for Top Five Shale Gas Plays
Constituting 80% of Shale Gas Production
(data from Drillinginfo, March, 2013)
3-Year Decline
Haynesville = 89%
Marcellus = 79%
Barnett = 79%
Fayetteville= 80%
Woodford = 77%
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Average 3-Year
Decline = 84%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gas P
rod
ucti
on
(B
illi
on
cu
bic
feet
per
Day)
Year
Haynesville
Marcellus
Barnett
Fayetteville
Woodford
Overall Field Decline for Top Five Shale Gas Plays
based on Production Decline from pre-2012 Wells
Field Decline (per year)
Haynesville = 47%
Marcellus = 29%
Barnett = 28%
Fayetteville = 35%
Woodford = 44%
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, March, 2013)
Average Field
Decline = 37%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ga
s P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Bil
lio
n c
ub
ic f
eet
per
day)
Year
Barnett
Fayetteville
Woodford
Haynesville
PA Marcellus
WV Marcellus
Shale Gas Production from Top Five Plays Comprising 80%
of U.S. shale gas production, 2006 - 2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, July, 2013, three month trailing moving average)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Feb, 11 Jun, 11 Oct, 11 Feb, 12 Jun, 12 Oct, 12 Feb, 13 Jun, 13 Oct, 13
Other
Marcellus
Barnett
Haynesville
Haynesville
Other
(data from Baker-Hughes, November, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
U.S. Gas Rig Count by Basin, 2011-2013
Barnett
Marcellus 61%
24%
15%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ga
s P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Bil
lio
n c
ub
ic f
eet
per
day)
Year
PA Marcellus
WV Marcellus
Woodford
Fayetteville
Haynesville
Barnett
Peak Excluding
PA Marcellus
August 2012
Now Down 12%
Shale Gas Production from Top Five Shale Gas Plays,
2006-June, 2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from DrillingInfo, October, 2013, three month trailing moving average)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Avera
ge I
nti
al P
rod
ucti
vit
y
per
Well
In
dexed
to
2010
Year
Marcellus
Haynesville
Barnett
Fayetteville
Woodford
Marcellus – Youth
Horizontal Well Quality Trends – Top Five Shale Gas Plays
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, March, 2013)
Fayetteville – Early Middle Age
Barnett – Middle Age
Haynesville – Late Middle Age
Woodford – Early Old Age
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Nu
mb
er o
f Op
era
ting
Wells
G
as P
rod
ucti
on
(B
illi
on
cu
bic
feet
per
Day)
Year
Gas Production
Number of producing wells
Western Canadian Gas Production vs Number of Wells
(data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, June, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
British Columbia Shale Plays (EIA/ARI, June, 2013)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Gas P
rod
ucti
on
(B
illi
on
cu
bic
feet
per
Day)
Year
Horn River Montney Remainder
B.C. Gas Production from Horn River, Montney and
Remaining Fields
(data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, June, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Gas P
rod
ucti
on
(B
illi
on
cu
bic
feet
per
Day)
Year
Existing BC Gas Production
British Columbia Gas Production vs LNG Export Applications
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Existing NEB Approval
28 million tonnes/year
Exxon Application
30 million tonnes/year
BG Group Application
21.6 million tonnes/year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Gas P
rod
ucti
on
(B
illi
on
cu
bic
feet
per
Day)
Year
Ramp up required to meet exports Production required to offset depletion of non-shale/tight plays Horn River Montney Remainder
(data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, June, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
B.C. Gas Production Required to meet 3.82 tcf/year
of LNG exports by 2025
Citigroup 2012 Projection of U.S. Shale Oil, 2010-2022 T
housa
nd B
arr
els
per
Day
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
per
Day
Year
Alaska
Onshore EOR
Onshore Shale/Tight Oil
Lower-48 Onshore Conventional
Lower-48 Offshore
Shale/Tight Oil
Lower-48 Offshore
Alaska
Lower-48 Onshore Conventional Production
Onshore EOR
32%
of 2
040 S
up
ply
U.S. Crude Oil Production Projection by Source and
Region 2010-2040 (EIA 2013 Reference Case)
Peak Production 2019
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2012 (data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013, EIA, 2012; International Monetary Fund)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
per
Day
Year
Net Imports Biofuels
Natural Gas Liquids Refinery Processing Gain
Coal and Gas to Liquids Other Liquids and SPR
Crude Oil Production
Net Imports
Domestic Crude Oil Production
Biofuels
Natural Gas Liquids
Refinery Gains
Net Im
ports 3
6%
O
il 32%
U.S. Petroleum Liquids Supply by Source
2010-2040 (EIA 2013 Reference Case)
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2012 (data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013, EIA, 2012; International Monetary Fund)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Th
ou
san
d B
arr
els
per
Day
Shale Play
Crude Oil and Other Liquids Production by Shale Play –
mid 2012
(data from HPDI, September, 2012, for production in most cases through May-June, 2012)
Top 2 Plays = 81% of Total
Top 5 Plays = 92% of Total
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2012
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Feb, 11 Jun, 11 Oct, 11 Feb, 12 Jun, 12 Oct, 12 Feb, 13 Jun, 13 Oct, 13
Other
Permian
Eagle Ford
Williston (Bakken)
Williston (Bakken)
Other
(data from Baker-Hughes, November, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
U.S. Oil Rig Count by Basin, 2011-2013
Permian Basin
Eagle Ford
40%
33%
14%
13%
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Nu
mb
er o
f Pro
du
cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Oil Production
Number of Wells
Permian Basin Total Oil plus NGL Production and Number
of Operating Wells, 2000-2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013, three month trailing moving average)
Total Wells Drilled = 388,533
Currently Producing Wells = 138,624
Oil Produced = 29.8 billion barrels
Gas Produced = 106.4 tcf
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
per
Day)
Year
Permian Basin Oil plus NGL Production by Well Type -
Comparing Horizontal to Vertical Wells, 2000-2013
(data from Drillinginfo, November, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Horizontal/Directional Wells
(33,421)
Vertical Wells
(105,775)
Total Horizontal Oil Production = 13.1 billion barrels
Total Horizontal Gas Production = 23 tcf
Total Vertical Oil Production = 16.7 billion barrels
Total Vertical Gas Production = 83.4 tcf
Avalon Shale
Bone Springs Sand
Cline Shale
Leonard Shale
Spraberry
Wolfberry
Wolfbone
Wolfcamp
Permian Basin Select Plays
Avalon Shale
Bone Springs Sand
Cline Shale
Leonard Shale
Spraberry
Wolfberry
Wolfbone
Wolfcamp
Permian Basin Select Plays (TX) – post 1990 wells
Avalon Shale
Bone Springs Sand
Cline Shale
Leonard Shale
Spraberry
Wolfberry
Wolfbone
Wolfcamp
Permian Basin Select Plays (NM & TX) – post 1990 wells
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0
50
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Nu
mb
er o
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cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Oil Production
Number of Wells
Permian Basin (Subset) Unconventional Oil plus NGL
Production and Number of Operating Wells, 2000-2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013, three month trailing moving average)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(B
arr
els
per
Day)
Months on Production
Oil Production
BOE Production
Permian Basin (Subset) Type Oil and Barrels of Oil
Equivalent Well Decline Curves
(data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Oil Decline
First Year = 66%
Second Year = 37%
Third Year = 29%
Fourth Year = 29%
3-Year Decline = 83%
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(B
arr
els
per
Day)
Months on Production
Horizontal Production
Vertical Production
Permian Basin (Subset) Type Oil Well Decline Curves
Comparing Horizontal to Vertical Wells
(data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
3-Year Oil Decline
Horizontal = 84%
Vertical = 46%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
per
Day)
Year
Horizontal Production
Vertical Production
Permian Basin (Subset) Oil Production by Well Type -
Comparing Horizontal to Vertical Wells
(data from Drillinginfo, November, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Horizontal Wells
Vertical Wells
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nu
mb
er o
f Pro
du
cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Oil Production
Number of Wells
Bakken/Three Forks Oil Production and Number of
Operating Wells, 2005-2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013, three month trailing moving average)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(B
arr
els
per
Day)
Months on Production
Oil Production
BOE Production
Bakken/Three Forks Type Oil and Barrels of Oil Equivalent
Well Decline Curves Including Montana and North Dakota
(data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Oil Decline
First Year = 70%
Second Year = 34%
Third Year = 23%
Fourth Year = 21%
3-Year Decline = 84%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nu
mb
er o
f Pro
du
cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Total Oil Production
Number of pre-2012 Wells
First Year Field Decline = 44%
Bakken Field Production Decline – Oil Production from all
Wells Drilled Prior to 2012
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
Bakken/Three Forks Stratigraphy
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (Image from Samson Oil and Gas)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(B
arr
els
per
Day)
Months on Production
Bakken
Three Forks
Bakken and Three Forks
Type Oil Well Decline Curves in North Dakota
(data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Three Forks
First Year = 70%
Second Year = 39%
Third Year = 25%
Fourth Year = 23%
3-Year Decline
Bakken = 86%
Three Forks = 85%
Bakken
First Year = 71%
Second Year = 34%
Third Year = 22%
Fourth Year = 19%
Bakken/Three Forks Well Distribution through mid-2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October 2013)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mountrail (ND)
McKenzie (ND)
Williams (ND)
Dunn (ND) Divide (ND) Remaining ND
counties
Richland (MT)
Remaining MT
counties
Pro
du
cti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
p
er
day)
County
Bakken/Three Forks Production By County,
North Dakota and Montana, June, 2013
Total Production = 787 Kbbls/day
Top 2 counties = 52% of production
Top 4 counties = 85% of production
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(B
arr
els
per
Day)
Months on Production
Divide (ND)
Dunn (ND)
McKenzie (ND)
Mountrail (ND)
Williams (ND)
Other ND Counties
Richland (MT)
Other MT Counties
Bakken/Three Forks Type Oil Well Decline Curves
by County and Region
(data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mountrail (ND)
McKenzie (ND)
Williams (ND)
Dunn (ND) Divide (ND) Remaining ND
counties
Richland (MT)
Remaining MT
counties
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
)
County
Cumulative for remaining 26 years with 10% annual decline
Cumulative first four years
Bakken/Three Forks Estimated Ultimate Recovery per Well
By County, North Dakota and Montana (over 30-year life)
All wells hit stripper
status within 11-24 years
(10 barrels per day)
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
47% to 61% of oil is
recovered in first four
years
(data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
0
50
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Av
era
ge F
irst
Year
per
Well P
rod
ucti
on
(B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Mountrail (ND) McKenzie (ND) Williams (ND) Dunn (ND) Divide (ND) Other ND Counties Richland (MT) Other MT Counties MT Average ND Average Bakken Average
Bakken Average First Year Well Production by County and
Region, 2008-2012
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Nu
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er o
f Pro
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cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Total Oil Production
Number of Wells
Peak 2015 - 2016
Bakken Oil Production - Declining Drilling Rate Scenario,
(2000 wells/year declining to 1000 wells/year), 2005-2035
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
Max Number of Wells = 25974
Total production = 5 billion bbls
Peak Year = 2015 - 2016
Max Drilling rate = 2000 wells/y
Final Drilling rate = 1000 wells/y
Last Well
Drilled 2026
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Nu
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g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Total Oil Production
Number of Wells
Peak 2017
Bakken Oil Production - Constant Drilling Rate Scenario,
(2000 wells/year), 2005-2035
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
Max Number of Wells = 26474
Total production = 5.2 billion bbls
Peak Year = 2017
Drilling rate = 2000 wells/y
Last Well
Drilled 2023
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Nu
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f Pro
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g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Risked Total Oil Production Unrisked Total Oil Production Risked Number of Wells Unrisked Number of Wells
Peak 2015
Bakken Oil Production - Declining Drilling Rate Scenario,
Risked at 80% for locations versus Unrisked, 2005-2035
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
Risked Wells = 21474
Unrisked Wells = 25974
Risked total production = 4.5 billion bbls
Unrisked total production = 5.0 billion bbls.
Max Drilling rate = 3500 wells/y
Final Drilling rate = 2000 wells/y
Eagle Ford Gas and Oil Well Distribution through mid-2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October 2013
Gas Wells
Oil Wells
0
1000
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6000
7000
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nu
mb
er o
f Pro
du
cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Oil Production
Number of Wells
Eagle Ford Oil plus NGL Production and Number of
Operating Wells, 2005-2013
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013, three month trailing moving average)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(B
arr
els
per
Day)
Months on Production
Oil Production
BOE Production
Eagle Ford Type Oil and Barrels of Oil Equivalent Well
Decline Curves
(data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
Oil Decline
First Year = 59%
Second Year = 29%
Third Year = 76%
Fourth Year = 58%
3-Year Decline = 91%
0
500
1000
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2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nu
mb
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f Pro
du
cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Total Oil Production
Number of pre-2012 Wells
First Year Field Decline = 34%
Eagle Ford Field Production Decline – Oil Production from
all Wells Drilled Prior to 2012
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Karnes Lasalle Dewitt Dimmit Gonzales Other counties
Pro
du
cti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
p
er
day)
County
Eagle Ford Oil Production By County,
June, 2013
Total Production = 749 Kbbls/day
Top 2 counties = 36% of production
Top 5 counties = 75% of production
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (note that this is 79% of total liquids production, the balance being NGLs; data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(B
arr
els
per
Day)
Months on Production
Dewitt
Karnes
Gonzales
Dimmit
Lasalle
Other Counties
Eagle Ford Type Oil Well Decline Curves
by County and Region
(data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013) © Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2009 2010 2011 2012
Av
era
ge F
irst
Year
per
Well P
rod
ucti
on
(B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Eagle Ford Average Dewitt Dimmit Gonzales Karnes Lasalle Other Counties
Eagle Ford Average First Year Well Production by County
and Region, 2008-2012
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
Dewitt
0
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25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0
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1400
1600
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033
Nu
mb
er o
f Pro
du
cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Total Oil Production
Number of Wells
Peak 2017
Eagle Ford Oil Production - Declining Drilling Rate Scenario,
(3500 wells/year declining to 2000 wells/year), 2008-2035
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
Max Number of Wells = 45302
Total production = 7.3 billion bbls
Peak Year = 2017
Max Drilling rate = 3500 wells/y
Final Drilling rate = 2000 wells/y
Last Well
Drilled 2027
0
5000
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25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0
200
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1400
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2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033
Nu
mb
er o
f Pro
du
cin
g W
ells
O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Risked Total Oil Production Unrisked Total Oil Production Risked Number of Wells Unrisked Number of Wells
Peak 2017
Eagle Ford Oil Production - Declining Drilling Rate Scenario,
Risked at 80% for locations versus Unrisked, 2008-2035
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
Risked Wells = 37052
Unrisked Wells = 45302
Risked total production = 6.3 billion bbls
Unrisked total production = 7.5 billion bbls.
Max Drilling rate = 3500 wells/y
Final Drilling rate = 2000 wells/y
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(T
ho
usan
d B
arr
els
/day)
Year
Eagle Ford Risked Production
Bakken Risked Production
Peak 2016
Bakken and Eagle Ford Oil Production – Declining Drilling
Rate Risked at 80% for locations, 2005-2035
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 2013)
Bakken Risked Wells = 21474
Eagle Ford Risked Wells = 37052
Bakken risked total production = 4.5 billion bbls
Eagle Ford risked total production = 6.5 billion bbls.
Max Drilling rate = 5500 wells/y
Final Drilling rate = 3000 wells/y
Eagle Ford
Bakken
There is no such thing
as a FREE LUNCH
There has been a great deal of pushback by
many in the general public – and in State and
National governments – to environmental issues
surrounding hydraulic fracturing.
(eg. Global Frackdown held October 19, 2013,
involving 250 protests in 26 countries)
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
A Reality Check?
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
"We are all losing our shirts today.
We're making no money. It's all in the red.” (Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, Wall Street Journal, June 2012)
The United States oil and gas industry has “over
fracked and over drilled” (Mattihus Bichsel, projects and technology director, Royal Dutch Shell Plc.,
October 17, 2013)
Shell writes down $2.2 billion in shale assets and
puts Eagle Ford properties up for sale (Reuters September 30, 2013)
A Reality Check?
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
In a recent analysis, [Bernstein Research] estimates
that non-Opec marginal cost of production rose last
year to $104.5 a barrel, up more than 13 per cent
from $92.3 a barrel in 2011. (Bernstein Research, New York, May 2013)
• Tight oil production from the top two plays is likely to peak in 2016-2017
timeframe.
• High field decline rates mandate sustained high levels of drilling to
maintain production.
• Increasing drilling rates over current levels in the Bakken and Eagle Ford,
which account for one third of U.S. E&P investment, would only increase
peak production slightly and move it forward by perhaps a few months.
• Increases in the number of available drilling locations will increase
ultimate recovery but will not change the timing of peak production at
current drilling rates.
• High quality shale plays are not ubiquitous:
• 88% of shale gas production comes from 6 of 30 plays.
• 70% of tight oil production comes from 2 of 21 plays.
Tight Oil Takeaways
© Hughes GSR Inc, 2013
• US “Energy Independence” with the forecast energy trajectory is highly unlikely, barring a radical reduction in consumption.
• Almost all eggs are in the shale basket as a hope in meeting U.S. energy supply growth projections from oil and gas – and in meeting B.C. LNG export requirements.
Implications
• The “Shale Revolution” has provided a temporary respite from declining oil and gas production but should not be viewed as a panacea for increasing energy consumption – and exporting the bounty - rather it should be used as an opportunity to create the infrastructure needed for a lower energy throughput to maximize long term energy security.
• The Shale Revolution has been a “game-changer” in that it has temporarily reversed a terminal decline in supplies from conventional sources. Long term sustainability is questionable and environmental impacts are a major concern.