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JST Tokyo Headquarters, Science Plaza, B1F Hall – 11 October 2019
Nebojsa NakicenovicFormer Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology
The Six Transformations
Necessary to Achieve
the SDGsSDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
2019 #2Nakicenovic
Four Great Achievements since the
Beginning of Industrial Revolution
Life expectancy has doubled in a century
One billion are obese while less go hungry
More die by suicide than war and violence
Everyone in the world has a mobile phone
2019 #3Nakicenovic
Source: Modi, 2011
Mobile Phones Charging
2019 #4Nakicenovic
100,000-year ice-core record
Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.
2019 #5Nakicenovic
Holocene – Cradle of Humanity
with Neolithic Revolution
Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.
2019 #6Nakicenovic
Tipping Elements & Paris
Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016
Source: John Schellnhuber et al. 2016
2019 #7Nakicenovic
Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2016, 62% over 1990
Projection for 2017: 36.8 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.0% higher than 2016
Estimates for 2015 and 2016 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016.Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
Kyoto
Paris
2019 #8Nakicenovic
Collective Responsibility in the Anthropocene
2019 #9Nakicenovic
Stockton – Darlington Steam Railway
2019 #10Nakicenovic
2019 #11Nakicenovic
Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
230GW @ $0.8/Wp
2019 #12Nakicenovic
Technological Change Dynamic, Cumulative, Systemic and Uncertain
Incremental – gradual (continuous) and
cumulative improvements
Abrupt – radical, discontinuous and
disruptive as “gales of creative
destruction”
Add as many mail-coaches as you
please, you will never get a railroad by so
doing. [Schumpeter, 1935/1951, 136
2019 #13Nakicenovic 13
1850 19501900 2000 2050
Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013
Transformational Change
2019 #14Nakicenovic
UN DESA and UNFCCC conference
on synergies between the SDGs and
the Paris Agreement – 1-3 April 2019
Copenhagen.
2019 #15Nakicenovic
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal
Po
licy
Co
sts
(20
10
-20
30)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
2019 #16Nakicenovic
Using knowledge on interlinkages to
exploit synergies and minimize
trade-offs in the policy process can
contribute to overall policy coherence
Interlinkages among the SDGs
• Survey of existing publications
• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set
of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies
on interlinkages
interlinkages among goals and targets
Source: Miola, 2019
2018 #17Nakicenovic
Human capacity
& demographyEducation, health, ageing,
labor markets, gender, inequalities
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& energyEnergy access,
efficiency, electrification,
decent services
Consumption
& productionResource use,
circular economy, sufficiency, pollution
Smart citiesDecent housing,
mobility, sustainable
infrastructure, pollution
Food, biosphere
& waterSustainable intensification,
biodiversity, forests, oceans, healthy diets,
nutrients
Digital
revolutionArtificial intelligence,
big data, biotech, nanotech, autonomous
systems
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
2018 #18Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& Production
Smart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
2019 #19Nakicenovic
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
sh
are
(%
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Primary education
Secondary education
Tertiary education
Education and Human Capacity
Transformation (SSP1)
Source: Lutz et al., 2018
2019 #20Nakicenovic
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
ye
ars
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Human capacity & demography
Life Expectancy
History SSP1 SSP2 SSP3
Source: UNDESA (2017) and Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (2015).
Counter-transformation (SSP3)
Transformation (SSP1)
2019 #21Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& Production
Smart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
2019 #22Nakicenovic
Urban Metabolism or Ecology
2019 #23Nakicenovic
Carbon Composite Bridge in Madrid
2019 #24Nakicenovic
Carbon Composite BMW i3
2018 #25Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& Production
Smart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law”
2019 #29Nakicenovic
Possible Transformational Technologies
2019 #30Nakicenovic
NET Power Breaks Ground on
Demonstration Plant for Oxyfuel,
Nantural Gas ZEP, La Porte, Texas
2018 #31Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& Production
Smart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
2019 #32Nakicenovic
Food for a Week, Aboubakar Family© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Source: Menzel, 2005
2019 #33Nakicenovic
© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Source: Menzel, 2005
Food for a Week, Melander Family
2019 #34Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& ProductionSmart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
2019 #35Nakicenovic
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES
B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization
World
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
Po
pu
latio
n
2019 #36Nakicenovic
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES
B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization
World, UK, BRICs
UK
BRICs
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Po
pu
latio
n
Source: Grubler et al. 2012
2018 #37Nakicenovic
Human capacity
Demography &
Health
SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Decarbonization
& Energy
Consumption
& ProductionSmart Cities
& Mobility
Food, Biosphere
& Water
Digital
Revolution
Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
2019 #38Nakicenovic
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
OECD
Non-OECD
Technology Diffusion Compared(access to cellphones)
Cellphones
Δt = 13 yrs
Cellphones
Δt = 11 yrs
Source: Grubler, 2016
2019 #39Nakicenovic
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 20500%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
OECD
Toilets
Δt = 72 yrs
Non-OECD
Toilets
Δt = 52 yrs
Technology Diffusion Compared(access to safe sanitation and cellphones)
Cellphones
Δt = 13 yrs
Cellphones
Δt = 11 yrs
Source: Grubler, 2016
2019 #40Nakicenovic
Impact of IC Technology Convergence
Source: Grubler et al., 2018
2019 #41Nakicenovic
Digital Revolution – ConvergenceArtificial Intelligence, Deep Learning, Big Data, Robotics,
Nanotechnology, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Biology
The Internet of Things, 3D Printing, Block Chain,
Autonomous Vehicles, Augmented Reality
2019 #42Nakicenovic Source: Gartner, 2017
2018 #43Nakicenovic
Vision:
Sustainable
Future for All
→ Growing number of actors of change:
• green businesses
• cities
• civil society
• science
• IGOs (UN etc.)
→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs
→ New values and norms; new morality and ethics
Source: After WBGU, 2011
Legitimacy of
BAU eroding
→ 2050: Sustainability transformation
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)
“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
2030 2050
Tra
ns
form
ati
on
to
Su
sti
an
an
ab
ilit
y
2018 #44Nakicenovic
● A new era in human history is emerging! After Neolithic
& Industrial, the Digital Revolution is the next era.
● Digitalization can enable a disruptive revolution toward
a Digital Anthropocene – a quantum leap for civilization!
● The paradox of the Digital Anthropocene – digitalization
essential for achieving the Six Major Transformations &
is challenging the absorptive capacity of society.
● Build responsible knowledge societies capable of taking
action towards sustainability in the Digital Age –
governance urgently needed in Digital Anthropocene! .
● There are only 10 years to 2030!
Provisional Key Messages
2018 #45Nakicenovic
Welcome to the Digital Anthropocene
