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The Smart Home at Scale
Sponsored by:
Presented by:Steven Hummel
Sr. Analyst, CTA Market Research
The Smart Home At ScaleTime: • Past, present & futureHome Infrastructure:• Rent vs. own• Homes vs. buildingsDevices: • Connected vs. smart• One vs. manyPopulation segments:• Attitudes & behaviors
2.07
1.31
5.87%
3.95%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p
New Home Starts (Millions)Annual Avg. Rate of 30-Year Fixed Mortgage
U.S. Housing Market StatisticsNew
Home Starts
Avg. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage
2019p: ProjectedSource: Freddie Mac, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
3% 4% 4% 6% 5%
25% 25% 32% 34% 32%
72% 72% 64% 61% 64%
2018 2016 2015 2014 2013
Source: 16th State of The Builder Technology Market, October 2018. CTA.
% More Important[Net Much More + Somewhat
More Important]
Marketing Home Tech is More Important TodayImportance of Marketing Home Technologies
Versus Two Years Ago
% Neither More or Less Important
% Less Important
Smart Home Devices Lead Builder Plans% Likely to Offer as Standard or Optional Feature
[Net Definitely + Probably Will Offer]
83%Smart Thermostat
71%Smart Smoke/CO Detector
Source: 16th State of The Builder Technology Market, October 2018. CTA.
2% 3% 2% 6% 2%
50% 58% 62% 63% 66%
49% 40% 36% 32% 32%
2018 2016 2015 2014 2013
% Revenue Increase[Net Greatly + Somewhat
Increased]
Revenue Gains from Home Tech Hit New Peak
Impact of Home Technologies on Builders’ Revenue
% No Revenue Change
% Less Important
Source: 16th State of The Builder Technology Market, October 2018. CTA.
+42% +9% +6% +5%
-1% +3% +2% +1%
+19%+16% +8% +4%+77%+19%
+21% +12%
$-
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
2017a 2018a 2019e 2020p 2021p
Sales to U.S. Dealers ($ Billion)
Tech Home Industry Forecast: 2017 - 2021
$14.5$17.4
$19.0 $20.1 $20.9
YoY Change +20% +9% +6% +4%
Reve
nue
($Bi
llion
s)
Source: CTA Sales & Forecast, July 2019
Home roboticsHome networkingCustom installed tech DIY smart home
Product Category
a: Actuale: Expectedp: Projected
$4,593
$725
$620
$384
$157 $69
Installed Home Security Solutions
Lighting Controls
Structured Wiring
Climate Systems
Whole House Controllers
Multi-Room Audio Video Systems
Custom Installed
Tech
$6.5 Billion
Source: CTA Sales & Forecast July 2019
70%of Custom
Installed Sales Revenue
Custom Installed Tech Sales Composition, 2019 Sales to U.S. Dealers ($ Millions)
51%of DIY Sales
Revenue
$2,973 $1,978
$1,187
$648 $266
$150 $105 $73
$67 $49
Smart speakersIP/Wi-Fi camerasSmart security systemsSmart doorbellsSmart thermostatSmart light bulbsSwitches, outletsSmart smoke detectorsOther DIY smart home
Source: CTA Sales & Forecast July 2019
DIY Smart Home Sales Composition, 2019
DIY Smart Home
$7.5 Billion
Source: CTA Sales & Forecast July 2019
40%of DIY Smart Home Sales
Revenue
Sales to U.S. Dealers ($ Millions)
27.3
34.9 35.2 34.5 33.5
2017a 2018a 2019e 2020p 2021p
Shipment Units (Millions)Smart Speakers
Source: CTA Sales & Forecast July 2019
+28% +1% -2% -3%
Intelligence is transferring to new content devices
Consumer-Facing Smart Home Research
Audio/Video
Multi-Room Audio SystemSmart Speaker With Voice AssistantWireless Speaker Without Voice AssistantHome Theater/Entertainment System
Energy Management
Smart ThermostatSmart PlugSmart Switch
Home Networking Home Automation/Management System (hub)
19 Primary ProductsOwnership required to qualify for the survey
Home Security
Smart Smoke/Carbon Monoxide DetectorInternet-Connected Security CameraVideo DoorbellSmart Door LocksSmart Garage DoorsSmart Pet Door
Lighting Smart LightsSmart Window Treatments
OtherDiscrete Smart SensorsSmart AppliancesSmart Robot Vacuum
Audio/Video Smart Entertainment DevicesEnergy Management Energy Management System
Home NetworkingStructured Wiring SystemWhole-Home Wi-Fi system or Mesh NetworkIntercom Systems
Home Security Monitored Security SystemSmart Delivery Solutions
Lighting Lighting Control System
Other Smart RemotePet Technology
10 Secondary ProductsPrevalence measured in screener
29 Smart Home Technology Products in 6 Categories
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
Smart Home Technology Market
51% 61 Million US Households
own at least one primary smart home product
69% 83 Million US Households
own at least one primary or additional smart home product
31% 37 Million US Householdsdo not own any smart home
products
18% 22 Million US Households
own at least one additional
smart home product
n=3,785 U.S. adults who own primary smart home deviceHousehold projections based on 120 million total US housing units, sourced from U.S. Census Bureau: 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, published September 2018Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
Home Technologies Installation Profile
52% “Do It Yourself” (DIY)
Install Only
18% Use
Professional Installer Only
30% DIY & Use Professional
Installer
82% 136 Million US Adults
Have DIY-installed home technologies
n=2,000 U.S. adults who own home technology devicesHousehold projections based on 240 million total US adults (18+), sourced from U.S. Census Bureau: 2017 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, published September 2018Source: Consumer Perceptions: DIY vs Professional Installations of Home Technology; CTA, 2018
56%
34%
33%
21%
19%
15%
Audio/Video
Home Networking
Home Security
Energy Management
Other
Lighting
Includes primary and additional productsCurrently Own at Least One Product in Category
45%: Smart Entertainment Devices
25%-26%: Portable Wireless/Smart Speaker
Ownership of Smart Home Technology Categories
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
45%
31%
26%
25%
23%
17%
17%
14%
14%
12%
12%
12%
Smart Entertainment Device
Whole Home Wi-Fi/Mesh
Wireless Speakr w/o Voice Ast
Smart Speaker w/ Voice Ast
Home Theater System
Smart Smoke/CM Detector
Monitored Security System
Smart Thermostat
Internet-Connected Camera
Video Doorbell
Smart Lights
Smart Remote Includes primary and additional products
Top Smart Home Technology Products Owned
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
Audio/videoHome networkingHome securityEnergy managementLightingOther technology
Product Category
33%
28%
26%
23%
19%
18%
Home Security
Audio/ Video
Energy Management
Other
Home Networking
Lighting
Smart Home Categories Planned for Purchase in the Next 12 Months
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
Top Smart Home Technology Products Planned for Purchase in the Next 12 Months
Includes primary and additional products
20%
16%
14%
14%
14%
14%
14%
13%
13%
13%
Video Doorbell
Internet-Connected Camera
Smart Smoke/CM Detector
Smart Speaker w/ Voice Ast
Smart Lights
Smart Plug
Smart Switch
Smart Door Locks
Home Theater System
Smart Thermostat
Home securityAudio/videoLighting Energy management
Product Category
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
24%
25%23%
17%
11%
Indifferent Tech Owners15 million US households50 mean age3 mean # smart home products owned
Motivated Home Monitors15 million US households47 mean age5 mean # smart home products owned
Amateur Smart Homers14 million US households
43 mean age6 mean # smart home products owned
Benefit-Driven Adopters10 million US households
40 mean age8 mean # smart home products owned
Smart Home Enthusiasts7 million US households
31 mean age17 mean # smart home products owned
Five Smart Home Segments
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
LOW LIKELIHOOD
LOWER SATISFACTION
HIGHER SATISFACTION
HIGH LIKELIHOOD
Satisfaction w/ Ownership
Likelihood to Purchase Additional Products
(next 12 months)
Motivated Home Monitors
Indifferent Tech Owners
Benefit-Driven Adopters
Amateur Smart Homers
Smart Home Enthusiasts
Smart Home Technology Cross-section of Ownership
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
DIY INSTALLATION
LOWER SATISFACTION
HIGHER SATISFACTION
PROFESSIONAL INSTALLATION
Satisfaction w/ Install
Installation Method
Motivated Home Monitors
Indifferent Tech Owners
Benefit-Driven Adopters
Amateur Smart Homers
Smart Home Enthusiasts
Smart Home Technology Installation Cross-section
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
Targeting The Addressable Smart Home Market
Primary target segment
Focus on widest range of benefits — convenience, entertainment experience, security, advanced technology andoverall lifestyle enhancement
Benefit-Driven Adopters
Primary target segment
Will seek out products, focus on advanced technology aspect
Smart Home Enthusiasts
Secondary target segment
Educate on technology that is available and how it can make their lives more convenient
Amateur Smart Homers
Secondary target segment
Focus on benefits of safety and security
Motivated Home Monitors
Not a target segment
Indifferent Tech Owners
28% of smart home market
48% of smart home market
24% of smart home market
Secondary Target Segments Primary Target Segments
Source: Exploring the Smart Home Ecosystem: A Segmentation Analysis; CTA, 2019
From Smart Homes to Smart BuildingsBuilding Automation System
More than 80% of new constructions
incorporate at least one type of IoT or related
smart building technologies
Source: Research & Markets, June 2018
..and From Smart Buildings to Smart Cities
66% of US cities are
investing in smart city technology
RFID sensors embedded in street
furniture
Intelligent traffic signals
E-governance applicationsWi-Fi kiosks
Source: Smart Infrastructure: Building and Mobility Solutions for US Smart Cities; CTA, 2019
The top 5 invested applications include:
RFID sensors in street furniture
Smart meters for utilities
Intelligent traffic signals
E-governance applications
Wi-Fi kiosks
CES: January 7-10, 2020CES Key Trends
5GArtificial Intelligence
Vehicle Tech & MobilityDigital Health
8K TVRoboticsVR/AR
Connected HomeSmart Cities
Resilient Technologies
Smart Home Innovations @ CES
Swidget Ecovacs Atmobot
Smart Home Innovations @ CES
Wi-Charge D-Link 5G Home Router
