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Research was conducted to determine which main presidential candidate of the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama or John McCain, was more effective at using social media and the impact these efforts had on obtaining votes, with a breakdown by age.
Citation preview
TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
ThecorrelationbetweentheuseofsocialmediaWebsitesamong
differentagegroupsandtheinfluenceofsuchsitesonthe2008
presidentialelection.
by
DaveRigotti
AnadaptionofhisthesisaspartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsfortheBachelorofBusinessAdministrationDegreewithHonorsinMarketing
fromTheUniversityofToledo.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
II
AbouttheAuthor
DaveRigottiisawriter,speaker,andInternet
marketer.He’swork(s/ed)withsomeofthemostwell‐
knownandinfluentialbrandsintheworld,conducting
searchengineoptimizationanddevelopingmarketing
communicationstrategies.InJuly,hewillbejoining
Microsoftasaconsumer‐focusedmarketeronBing
(formerlyLiveSearch),Microsoft’ssearchengine.
DaverecentlygraduatedfromTheUniversityofToledo(BBAwithHonors,magna
cumlaude,2009)aftermajoringinmarketingandentrepreneurship,familyandsmall
business.ThisPDFisanadaptationofhisthesis.
BesuretovisithisblogandfollowhimonTwitter.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
III
Disclaimer/LegalInformation
AllcontentscopyrightC2008‐2009byDaveRigotti.Allrightsreserved.Nopart
ofthisdocumentortherelatedfilesmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyform,by
any means (electronic, photocopying, recording, or otherwise) without the prior
writtenpermissionofthepublisher.
Limit of Liability andDisclaimer ofWarranty: The publisher has used its best
effortsinpreparingthisbook,andtheinformationprovidedhereinisprovided"asis."
Dave Rigottimakes no representation orwarrantieswith respect to the accuracy or
completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaims any implied
warrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforanyparticularpurposeandshallinnoevent
be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damage, including but not
limitedtospecial,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages.
Trademarks: This book identifies product names and services known to be
trademarks,registeredtrademarks,orservicemarksof theirrespectiveholders.They
areusedthroughoutthisbookinaneditorialfashiononly.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
IV
Abstract
Researchwasconductedtodeterminewhichmainpresidentialcandidateofthe
2008presidentialelection,BarackObamaorJohnMcCain,wasmoreeffectiveatusing
socialmediaandtheimpacttheseeffortshadonobtainingvotes,withabreakdownby
age.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
V
Acknowledgements
Thisthesisisdedicatedtomyparents,DaveandConnieRigotti,whohavealways
supportedmynumerousendeavors.
I’d also like to thank Professor Carol Sullinger, Dr. Thomas W. Sharkey, Dr.
AinsworthA.Bailey,ShareThis,eMarketer,andeveryoneelsewhohelpedmeinwriting
thisthesis.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
VI
TableofContents
AbouttheAuthor ...........................................................................................................................IIDisclaimer/LegalInformation .............................................................................................. III
Abstract............................................................................................................................................IVAcknowledgements....................................................................................................................... V
TableofContents ..........................................................................................................................VI
Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1Candidates’WebSites .................................................................................................................. 7
SocialNetworking........................................................................................................................10Facebook ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10Myspace ......................................................................................................................................................................... 13Digg.................................................................................................................................................................................. 14Twitter............................................................................................................................................................................ 15
Collaboration ................................................................................................................................18Meetup ........................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Media ...............................................................................................................................................20Flickr ............................................................................................................................................................................... 20YouTube......................................................................................................................................................................... 21
VotingResults ...............................................................................................................................25References......................................................................................................................................29
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
1
Introduction
The Internet has played an integral role over the past few years in public
elections.Infact,accordingtoresearchgatheredandreportedbyeMarketerInc.,64%
of U.S. adult Internet users agree that the Internet has become important for the
campaign process in 2008.i Additionally, 24% of U.S. adults learned about the
presidential campaigns through the Internet in 2008,ii making it the 5th most used
source.
Is online success enough to significantly influence a presidential election,
especiallysincepoliticsaresofragmented?A2007NewYorkTimesarticlewrote:
Someexperts…cautionedagainstoverstatingthepotentialramifications
oftheInternetdivide.Afterall,Mr.Dean’scandidacy,whichstalledafter
theIowacaucuses,showedthatrunawaysuccessonlineisnotenough.iii
So,wegettothequestion:Whatisthecorrelationbetweentheuseofsocial
mediaWebsitesamongdifferentagegroupsandtheinfluenceofsuchsitesonthe
2008presidentialelection?
However,beforeexplainingthisissue,itfirstneedstobenotedthat“influence”
is an arbitrary idea. Technically, a non‐voter could have influenced the results of the
election.Unfortunately,it’snotpossibletofilternon‐votersoutofsocialmediasites,so
they are counted in data collected. However, the exit poll numbers reflect only U.S.
citizensovertheageof18whovoted.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
2
Another parameter to establish for the purposes of this thesis, is the sites
included in social media. They are: social networking, social aggregation, blogs, and
video and photo sites. Included sites were subjectively chosen, based on: size,
candidates’presenceonsite,andpotentialforfacilitatinginfluence.
Websiteresearchwasconductedthetwoweekspriortotheelection,October20
through November 3, 2008, with supporting research andwriting fromNovember 4
throughFebruary5,2009.
This paper will be looking at both campaigns’ Web sites, Facebook, Flickr,
Youtube,Myspace,Twitter,Meetup,Technorati, andDigg.Actually, toput reachofall
the sites into perspective, below is a graph of their U.S. monthly unique visitors
accordingtoCompete.com(NOTE:AlldataprovidedbyCompete.comisofU.S.visitors
age18orgreater).
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
3
Asyoucansee,youtube,myspace,facebook,digg,andflickrdominatethesocial
mediascene,allhaving20millionormoreU.S.uniquevisitorsinSeptember.However,
howdidthecampaignsusethesesitesandhoweffectiveweretheytoeachcandidate?
Isolating the smaller sites, twitter, technorati, andmeetup all had roughly the
sameU.S.uniquevisitorsatroughlybetween2and3million.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
4
According to data provided by Compete, Inc., selected social media sites sent
hundreds of thousands of visitors to both the Obama andMcCain’s official campaign
WebsitesinSeptember2008.
Thereasonforprovidingthesegraphsistoshowthepotentialforinfluencewith
thecandidates’sitesasreference.Themoretrafficasitehas,generally,themorereach,
ornumberofpeople,ithastoinfluence.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
5
OftheselectedsocialmediaWebsites,Facebookwasmosteffectiveatsending
traffic to the official campaigns’ Web sites, followed by YouTube and Myspace,
respectively. Low impact sites includedMeetup, Twitter, Flickr, andDigg, all sending
lessthan20,000visitorstoeachcampaign’ssiteinSeptember.However,whattypeof
trafficare theysending?Werethereferredvisitorsevenofagetovoteand located in
theU.S.?Thisdata,amongotherdata,iswhatI’lllookatineachsite’sbreakdown.
ShareThisisacompanythathascreatedasmallwidget,orasmallapplicationon
aWebsite,thatallowsuserstoshareaspecificWebsitewithfriendsviasocialmedia,
email,andothers.Theirwidgettrackedwhatarticleswerebeingshared,basedonthe
keywordsof“obama,”“biden,”“mccain,”and“palin”.Theresultsarebelow:
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
facebook.com
youtube.com
myspace.com
digg.com
jlickr.com
twitter.com
meetup.com
NumberofU.S.UniqueVisitors,ages18+,Sept.08
SocialMediaSite
VisitorsReferredtoCandidates'Site
McCainObama
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
6
Obamahadroughly50to90percentofsharingactivityuntilAugust2008when
McCainannouncedSarahPalinashisrunningmate.UpuntilthefirstweekofOctober
2008,PalinhadmuchmoresuccessthanObamaorMcCaininsharingactivity,withher
highest day achieving 72 percent of shares. However, as the election neared, Palin’s
sharingactivitydrasticallydeclined,whileObama’srose.Sharingisdefinedastellinga
contact,orfriend,aboutthearticleorWebsite,throughtheShareThiswidget.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
24‐Jul
31‐Jul
7‐Aug
14‐Aug
21‐Aug
28‐Aug
4‐Sep
11‐Sep
18‐Sep
25‐Sep
2‐Oct
9‐Oct
16‐Oct
23‐Oct
30‐Oct
PercentageofShares
Date
ElectionSharingActivity
ObamaBidenMcCainPalin
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
7
Candidates’WebSites
Before we take a look at the social media Web sites, let’s first look at the
candidates’Websitedemographicstounderstandthetypeofvisitorstheyattracted.
Looking at the candidates’Web site visitor age,we see that barackobama.com
attracted a slightly higher percentage of voter‐aged visitors as a percentage of total
visitors, when compared to johnmccain.com, according to data compiled on
Compete.com.
Also using data provided by Compete.com,we see that barackobama.com had
nearlydoubletheuniquevisitorsof johnmccain.cominSeptember2008,asshownon
thegraphbelow:
0
10
20
30
40
18‐34 35‐49 50+
Percent
AgeGroup
AgeGroupsasaPercentageofTotalVisitors
barackobama.comjohnmccain.com
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
8
This is an indication that theWebwasmore utilized by theObama campaign
when compared to theMcCain campaign; however visitor numbers don’t necessarily
translateintoraisingcampaigndollars,ormoreimportantly,actualvotescomeelection
day. Approximately 100,000 more visitors to barackobama.com was through social
media,basedonthesocialmediareferrerdata.
Next,eachofthesocialmediasiteswillbeindividuallyanalyzed.Iwillbelooking
ateachcandidate’spresenceonthesite,theageofusers,andthepotentialforvoting
influence.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
9
Blogs
Technorati
Technorati,asitebest
known for it’s blog search
engine, provides results of
blogpostsbasedonkeyword
search.While it only returns
keyword usage, and not the
context of the message, we
can still determine which
candidatereceivedmorementionsonblogsatlarge,anindicationofblogshareofvoice.
Itneeds tobenoted that I couldnot segmentbasedonblogcountryorigin, so
resultsincludeinternationalblogsaswellasU.S.blogs.
Above, we see that “obama” returned over 650,000 results, and “mccain”
returnedjustover500,000resultsonthesearchengine.ThisindicatesObama’sshare
ofblogvoice,ortheoverallblogcoverage,isroughly30%higherthanMcCain’s.
While just blog mentions don’t indicate tone of message, Obama clearly had a
highershareofvoicethanMcCainonblogs.
TechnoratiSearchResults
ObamaMcCain
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
10
SocialNetworking
Facebook,oneof themostdominatesocialmediaWebsites,had28.21million
visitsinSeptemberfrompeoplewhoare18yearsofageorolderandresidingintheU.S,
basedondataprovidedbybothCompete.comandQuantcast.com.
ObamaspentmoreadvertisingdollarsonFacebookthananyoftheothersocial
mediasites.Actually,fromJanuarythroughAugust,theObamaCampaignspentnearly
$112,000onFacebook,accordingtoClickZ.iv
Facebook representation can be measured in two ways. First, by using
Facebook’s advertisement targeting feature, the number of profiles thatmention the
keyword “obama”or “mccain” canbedetermined (labeledon thegraphaskeyword).
Secondly, both Obama and McCain have Facebook profiles for which supporters,
dubbed “fans,” can add them as friends (labeled on the graph as fans). Both are
representedon the graphbelowand it’s quite clear thatObamadominates Facebook
withbothkeywordsandnumberoffans.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
11
Of the Facebook
usersthathavechosento
publically associate
themselves with a
political thought, which
closely represents party
alignment, 41% are
liberal, 31% are
conservative, and 28%
aremoderate,according todataprovidedbyFacebookonMarch6,2008.v If thedata
holdtrue,McCainshouldhaveahigherFacebookrepresentation,basedonthepolitical
associationswhencomparedtoObama’snumbers.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
keyword fans
NumberofInstancesorFans
TypeofRepresentation
FacebookRepresentationofCandidates
ObamaMcCain
41%
31%
28%
PoliticalAssociationofFacebookUsers
liberalconservativemoderate
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
12
32%more Facebook users indicated they were liberal than conservative, but
Obamahad 270%more friends thanMcCain. This indicates that eitherObama had a
disproportionallylargenumberofsupportersorMcCainhadadisproportionatelysmall
numberofsupportersonFacebook.
In looking at the
demographics, Facebook is
dominated by 12 to 34 year olds.
While12to17hadanindex(Note:
Index represents how a site's
audiencecomparestotheonlineInternetpopulationasawhole.Anindexof100indicates
a site's audience is at parity with the total Internet population.) of 272, 47% of
Facebook’svisitscomefromthosewhoare18to34.Thisisimportant,becauseeither
candidates’representationnumberscanbeskewedbythosenotoldenoughtovote.
AccordingtoaPewInternetsurvey,viGenY(age18‐32)constitutes30%ofthe
Internetpopulation,reaffirmingFacebook’shighindexforusersage18‐34.
ObamadominatedMcCainonFacebook.Additionally,alargepercentage(33%)of
usersareundertheageof18,meaningtheywerenoteligibletovoteintheelection.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
13
Myspace Myspace, like Facebook, allows users to connect with others through their
friends, as well as through
groups. Myspace, had over 56
million visits from U.S. visitors
overtheageof18inSeptember,
meaning it has broader reach
domestically thanFacebook. Agedistributionscloselymirror thatofFacebook’swith
33percentoftrafficcomingfromthoseunder18,and44percentoftrafficcomingfrom
thosebetweentheagesof18and34.
Myspace was well
utilized by Obama, allowing
him to attain more than
800,000friends,comparedto
McCain’spaltry5,187,shown
onthegraphtotheleft.
The impact, however,
isquestionable.Myspace,like
Facebook,isasitepeopleuse
toconnectwitheachother,sharenewsandinformationwithfriends,andkeeptrackof
contacts. Even though Obama had many more “friends” than McCain, the age and
geographic location of users, in addition to the site being designed for users to stay
MySpaceFriends
ObamaMcCain
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
14
updated on people, not persuade them, makes the impact questionable. This is
questionable even though MySpace referred over 52,000 U.S. visitors to
barackobama.com,andover37,000U.S.visitorstojohnmccain.cominSeptember2008.
EventhoughObamahadmanymorefriendsthanMcCain,Myspaceprofilessentnearly
thesameamountoftraffictoeachoftherespectivesites.Onpossiblereasonforthisis
thatObama’sfriendswerelessactiveonMyspacethanMcCains.
EvenmoresothanFacebook,ObamaheldaclearadvantageoverMcCaininterms
of friends, however the impact number of users had on the campaign is
questionable.
Digg
DiggisanewsaggregationWebsitethatallowsuserstoadd,rate,andcomment
onnewsarticles.It’sconsideredto
bealowimpactsite,becauseofthe
low traffic it referred to the
candidates sites in September. In
terms of visitors’ age, 87% are of
votingage,with28%oftotalvisitorsbetweentheagesof18and34,asevidentonthe
graph.
To determine candidate share of voice, two searches were done using the
keywords “obama” and “mccain,” respectively, and the number of results pages
recorded.“Obama”returned109pagesofresults,while“McCain”returned88,meaning
theshareofvoicewasinObama’sfavor,butnotasmuchasonoftheothersites.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
15
However,when looking at the content of these submitted news items, a large
percentage seem to be pro‐Obama and anti‐McCain (or Palin), meaning that even
though McCain’s share of voice was fairly close to Obama’s, most of that voice was
negative.
Obama edged out McCain in terms of number of pages of results, however the
perceptionofthecandidatesseemedtobeinObama’sfavor.Theimpact,intermsof
referredtraffictotheofficialwebsiteofthecampaigns’,isminimal.
Twitter, amicro‐blogging service that allows its users to send and read other
users' 140 character updates (known as tweets), had nearly 3.25 million accountsvii
worldwideandwasusedbybothObamaandMcCain.However,thecampaignsusedit
fordifferentpurposes.ObamausedTwittertoupdateonlocation,whileMcCainusedit
tounveilnewadvertisements,pressreleases,andstatements.
ThenumberofusersfollowingObama’sandMcCain’supdatesandthenumberof
timesthecandidates’Twitteraccounthadbeenupdatedcanbeseenbelow:
TwitterFollowers
ObamaMcCain
TwitterUpdates
ObamaMcCain
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
16
InadditiontothecampaignsutilizingTwitter,otherTwitterusershadalsobeen
veryactiveinmentioningObamaandMcCain.UsingGoogleandthesite:searchfeature,
there were 1,260,000 instances of “obama” and 725,000 instances of “mccain” on
Twitter.
Based on data of Twitter users who have tweeted about Obama and McCain,
providedbyTwitrratr.com,Obama(samplesize:24120tweets)hadmorepositivebuzz
on Twitter thanMcCain (sample size: 13966 tweets). Twitrratrworks, according to
their website, by using a pre‐defined list of positive keywords and a list of negative
keywords. Twitrratr then searches Twitter for the user‐defined keyword, and the
resultsarecross‐referencedagainsttheadjectivelists.Theresultsarecompliedandthe
relative number of positive, negative, and neutral twitter messages are displayed
accordingly.
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
ObamaMcCain
PerceptiononTwitter
positivenegativeneutral
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
17
Veryarguably,thisisnotaverygoodwayofmeasuringperception.Forexample,
atweetfromuser@aldyreads,“Obamashouldbehisownpresssecretary,hiscurrent
onesuckswhentalkingtothepress.”viiiEventhoughthistweetwasaftertheelection,a
similar one before could have given Obama (or McCain) negative perception, since
“sucks” is on the negatives list. However, this was mentioning that Obama’s press
secretarysucks,nothim.
Twitter, however, had a
low reach as compared to the
other sites, with just over 3
million visitors from the U.S. in
September 2008, according to
Compete.com.In lookingatthedifferentagegroupsofTwitter,wefindthatnearlyall
usersareovertheageof18.
While the site has millions of visits from 18+ year olds in the U.S., its impact is
relatively low,especiallywhencomparedtotheothersocialmediaWebsites, like
Facebook.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
18
Collaboration
Meetup
Meetupwas themost utilized collaborationWeb site betweenObama andMcCain.
Meetupmakesiteasyforanyonetoorganizealocalgrouporfindoneofthethousands
already meeting up face‐to‐face. In essence, Meetup is a basic way to engage and
organizesupportersonlineforofflineactivism.
Obama had over 14,000 active members, and McCain had just over 1,750
members. What is really
important about Meetup is
thatwhile the sitemight not
directly influence the
outcomeoftheelection,what
itorganizesmightverywell.
Its important to note
that while the site has fairly
low traffic and referred few visitors to the official campaign Web sites, it was
instrumental in organizing volunteerism. The site is also dominated by voting age
members,especiallyinthe35‐49agegroup.
To put impact in perspective, an article titled “How Obama Won” by Rolling
Stonewrites:
MeetupMembers
ObamaMcCain
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
19
Howard Dean used the Internet for meetups — Obama used it to create a
movement. It was enormously important for getting the message out, raising
moneyandmobilizingvoters.Thosearethethreethings—message,moneyand
mobilization—thattheObamateamsawandexecutedonbrilliantly.ix
WhileMeetup had fairly low traffic and referrer volumes, itwas instrumental in
bringingonlineactivismoffline.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
20
Media
Flickr
Flickr is a site that allows users to upload digital images and tag them with
specific keywords. Other
users can then search these
keywords. Obama had a
greater presence on Flickr
than McCain, shown to the
right.
In the traffic graph,
Flickr has massive amounts
of traffic, however, it’s not as
interactiveorsocialasasitelike
Facebook, so it most likely
doesn’t have as strong of
influence. 90% of Flickr’s U.S.
visitorsareovertheageof18.
Obama and McCain had many pictures in professional and semi‐formal
situations,withmostofthembeingfairlycandid.
FlickrSearchResults
ObamaMcCain
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
21
Because these images containa very shortmessage, if any, theactual impact for
influence is fairly low, however it’s still important to note Flickr has 90% of its
trafficcomingfromvisitorsofvotingage.
YouTube
Youtube,oneoftheworld’slargestWebsitesintermsoftraffic,wasanintegral
part of each campaign, allowing the candidates to publish campaign updates,
commercials, and more. Unlike the other social media sites, YouTube allowed the
campaignstoprovideanexperience
topotentialvoters–bothwithaudio
and visual components.
Interestingly enough, Obama’s
campaign also included a donation
widget, that allowed visitors to
donate to his campaign. This was
one of the few instantaces that integrated social media directly with campaign
fundraising.AccordingtoaWashingtonPostarticle:
ThecampaignactivatedtheGoogleCheckoutoptiononallofitsYouTubevideos
onTuesday,meaningviewerscanmakedonationsfrom$15to$1,000.Checkout
allows online shoppers (or in this case, voters) to create a single login for all
onlinepurchases(ordonations).x
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
22
Even though the 12 to 17
age bracket has an index of 164,
only19%ofitsU.S.visitorsfallinto
thiscategory.The18+category,or
U.S. visitors of voting age,
accountedfor78%ofthenearly63millionuniquevisitorsinSeptember.Additionally,it
needstobepointedoutthat42%ofU.S.visitorstoYoutubeare35yearsofageorolder,
meaningtheyareofprimevotinganddonationage.
When looking at
YouTube search results, or
videos on YouTube that are
tagged with “obama” and
“mccain,”Obamaheldaclear
advantage in terms of
number of videos. Again, the
tonality of these videos may
bedifferentforeachcandidate.Alookatthetopvideosrevealsverypositivecontenton
ObamaandverynegativecontentonMcCain.Infact,avideowithover8millionviews
istitled“McCain'sYouTubeProblemJustBecameaNightmare,”xiwhichisessentiallya
verystronganti‐McCainvideo.
YouTubeSearchResults
ObamaMcCain
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
23
Obama clearly
dominates YouTube
subscribers, or the number
of users who have
subscribed to receive
updates when Obama and
McCain publish a new video
to the site. This means that,
thereweremanymorepeopleinterestedinreceivingupdatesonObama’svideosthan
McCain’svideos.
Obama also hadmore
channel views. While this
graphmay seem simple, it is
very important, because
videos can be much more
influential than say a status
update on Twitter. They can
include much more content,
includelessrestrictionsincontent,andallowthecandidatetohaveaclearpresence.
ObamaheldanotherdistinctadvantageoverMcCainononeofthemostvisited,and
arguably the most influential, sites of the election. Additionally, the tonality of
YouTubeSubscribers
ObamaMcCain
YouTubeChannelViews
ObamaMcCain
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
24
videoswasgreatlyinObama’sfavor;however,22%ofYouTube’strafficcomesfrom
usersnotofvotingage.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
25
VotingResults
Thegraphbelowrepresentsfourmajoragegroupsasapercentageofthetotal
votersforboththe2004and2008presidentialelectionsxii.Itisimportanttonotethat
socialmediadidnotappeartoattractanynewvotersasapercentageoftotalvoters.
According to official reports by the Federal Election Commission, the popular
vote(Bush/Kerry)for2004was121,069,054xiiiandthepopularvote(Obama/McCain)
for2008was129,391,711xiv,anincrediblysmallmarginalincrease.
If social media didn’t attract any new voters, did it influence voters who
originallysupportedonecandidatetoactuallyvoteforanothercandidate?
05101520253035
40
18‐29 30‐4445‐64
65orover
Percentage,asaTotalofallVotes,fortheir
respectiveyear
AgeGroup
PresidentialElectionResults
20042008
TotalPopularVote2004=121,069,0542008=129,391,711
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
26
Thebelowgraphshowsnotonly thedistributionof ages fromvoting,butalso
thepercentageoftotalvotesfortheagegroup.The50‐64agegroupwasthedominate
voting group, accounting for over 27% of total votes, while 18‐24 year old voters
accountedforjustover10%.
Based solely on this data, it would appear that Obama made more strides in
attracting the younger voters than McCain, and social media could be named as an
influencer.However, let’s lookatvotingpatterns.Could itbe thatObamawasamore
attractive candidate to younger voters, just as JohnKerrymayhavebeen, and that it
wasn’tdrivenbysocialmedia?
JohnKerry, in2004, attracted54%of the18‐29yearoldvoters,whileObama
attracted66%.Additionally, inthe30‐44agecategory,Kerrygrabbedjust44%,while
Obamareceived52%ofthevotes.
Using some extrapolation and assumptions, the graph below represents the
average age (from Quantcast.com) of the social media sites mentioned in this paper
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%
18‐24 25‐29 30‐39 40‐49 50‐64 65orover
Percentage,asaTotalofallVotes
AgeGroup
VotingResultsbyAgeGroupandCandidate
ObamaMcCain
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
27
(excluding Technorati) and that age group’s percentage of total votes in the 2008
presidentialelection(fromCNN.com).
Notsurprisingly,18%ofsocialmediausageisbythosenotevenoldenoughto
vote.Additionally,the18to34agegroupaccountedfor42%ofsocialmediasiteusage,
butonly28%ofvotes. Inessence, theyoungervisitors (<35yearsold)accounted for
mostofthesocialmediasiteusage,whiletheoldervoters(>=35yearsold)accounted
formostofthevotes.
Under18 18‐34 35‐49 50+%socialmediasiteusage 18% 42% 24% 15%%votes 0% 28% 31% 31%
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Percent
AgeGroups
PercentofSocialMediaUseandVotesinthe2008PresidentialElectionbyAge
Group
%socialmediasiteusage %votesSourcesQuantcast.comandCNN.com
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
28
Conclusion
Inconclusion,basedonresearchconducted,socialmediawasagreatconnector
andhadsomeimpactonvoters,especiallyinthe18‐29agegroups.However,Imaintain
that it was more of a connector than a direct influencer in getting candidate votes.
Obama having, in some instances, more than 10 times the exposure on some social
media sites and basically being at parity with McCain in the 30‐64 age groups in
percentageofvotes,indicatessocialmediawasn’tasimpactfulinolderagegroups.
Indirectly, socialmediawasan instrumentalenabler. It connectedhundredsof
thousandsofvolunteers,referredmillionsofvisitorstothecandidatesWebsites,andit
providedinformationatincrediblespeed.
Socialmediamarketing,especiallyinpoliticsisheretostay.It’snearlyfreeand,
aspoliticaladvertisingbecomesmorefragmented,candidateswillbe lookingtoreach
users wherever they are and social media sites are no exception. In looking at the
future,candidateswillstarttousesocialmediaasaninfluencerandafundraiser,rather
thanawaytojustpushoutstandardcontent(likepressreleases)andupdateuserson
theirlocation.
Rigotti,Dave|TheSocialMediaUseofObamaandMcCain
29
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