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The South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative’s Third Thursday Web Forum. Vegetation Dynamics Projections to Inform Conservation in the Southeast Thursday, October 18, 2012. Third Thursday Web Forum Agenda. Introductions Updates - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative’s Third Thursday Web ForumVegetation Dynamics Projections to Inform Conservation in the Southeast
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Third Thursday Web Forum Agenda
Introductions Updates Monthly Topic: Vegetation Dynamics
Projections to Inform Conservation in the Southeast
Questions & Discussion of Monthly TopicQuestions & Discussion of SALCCClose
Introductions
Amy Keister, GIS CoordinatorLaurie Rounds, Gulf Coast Landscape
Conservation LiaisonGinger Deason, Information Transfer
Specialist/Forest Service LiaisonJen Costanza, Postdoctoral Associate,
Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center (BASIC), NCSU
Updates
Second Biological Objectives Workshop underway
Draft indicators process web comments due today
Interim video report – Sea Level Rise and Coastal Species – on web
Socioeconomics Workshop development committee being formed
www.southatlanticlcc.org
a tour of new spatial data products
SALCCThird Thursday Web Forum
SALCC
Third Thursday Web Forum
a tour of new spatial data products
SALCC Introduction
In this three part webinar series we will explore newly available spatial
products that predict future conditions
• 6/21/12: Urban Growth• 8/16/12: Sea level rise • 10/18/12: Land cover
SALCC Introduction
The SALCC is a forum in which the private, state and federal conservation community…
develops a shared vision of landscape sustainability
cooperates in its implementation; and
collaborates in its refinement
Mission:Create a shared blueprint for
landscape conservation actions that sustain natural and cultural
resources
SALCC Introduction
What is the Blueprint?An interactive, living plan that
describes the places and actions needed to meet the SALCC’s conservation priorities in the
face of future change
Conservation Priority = Measurable indicator of success
SALCC Introduction
*calculated from the NOAA medium resolution digital vector shoreline
About the SALCC area
• Portions of 6 States
• 89 million acres
• 92% private land
• 18,700 miles of coastline*
SALCC Introduction
Why is the SALCC interested in these spatial data?
To achieve our mission, we need to be able to understand and model the forces that drive
change on the landscape
The spatial data products we are highlighting cover the entire
SALCC area and as far as your staff knows, these are currently the best data available for our
region
Do you know of other comparable data that cover our
entire region?
Vegetation dynamics projections to inform conservation in the
SoutheastJennifer CostanzaOctober 18, 2012
Vegetation dynamics: extent
DSL Project Overview
Coordinated research project between • USGS Coop Units of NC and AL • Atlantic Coast Joint Venture • NCSU Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center
Aim: Predict landscape-level change effects on avian habitats in SE due to urban growth, succession, disturbance, climate change, and conservation programs
Included Vegetation dynamics, Sea level rise (SLAMM) and Urban growth (SLEUTH) modeling
SERAP Overview
CLIM
CLIM
CLIMHabitat Change in
Coastal Areas
UrbanizationVegetation Dynamics
Avian OccupancySpecies-Habitats
Relations
Hydrologic Response
Fish and Mussel Occupancy
MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVESLand Acquisition
Habitat RestorationPurchase Irrigated
CroplandRiparian Improvement
Improve Irrigation efficiency
Propagation/Translocation
Adaptation Strategies
CLIMATE
CHANGE
COASTAL
TERRESTRIAL
AQUATIC
Modeling approach
• Location of habitat types• Successional stage• Vegetation structure
ForcingsCurrent Spatial Conditions
Spatially-explicit landscape projectionsVegetation succession and disturbance,
sea level rise, urban growth: through 2100
• Climate effect on wildfire• Urban growth (SLEUTH)• Sea level rise (SLAMM)
• State-and-transition models for 150+ ecological systems and land cover types – VDDT / TELSA
• Based on models developed by LANDFIRE• Include succession, disturbances and management
P1
P2 P3
Transitions
young pine
forest
middle-aged forest
old forest
Annual transition probabilities
States
Spatially-explicit based on landscape mapAdd states, change transitions in response to changes
P4 P5 P6
Vegetation dynamics models
Clearcut pine
forestP7
Annual probabilities from recent wildfire records:Surface fire 0.02Replacement fire 0.0006
Longleaf pine ecosystem model
A1FI climate scenario wildfire probability multiplier
95% confidence interval
Climate change effect on wildfire
Incorporating SLEUTH and SLAMM
SLAMM (sea level rise)
SLEUTH (urban growth)