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Coggi, McNeill© The Aerospace Corporation 2013
The Aerospace Corporation
ATR-2013-00097
Approved for Public Release
The Space Situation Monitoring LaboratoryWhat’s Happening in Space?
An Integrated Web-Based Environment for Space
Environment Information and Analysis
John Coggi
Justin McNeill, Jr.
Roy Nakagawa (presenter)
Presented at the International Symposium on Sustainable Space Development and
Space Situational Awareness 2015 in Tokyo, Japan
27 February 2015
Coggi, McNeill
Outline
Introduction to the Space Situation Monitoring Laboratory (SSML)
SSML Architecture
SSML Current Capabilities
Summary
2
Coggi, McNeillCoggi, McNeill
Objective
– Build a system to monitor, detect, and display anomalous space events and provide automated reports to users in the Aerospace community
Approach
– Employ new algorithms and tools for the monitoring and study of the space environment
– Display information on satellite ephemerides, predicted satellite closest approaches, space weather, and orbital energy changes, et cetera.
– Notify the community when significant space events occur
– Leverage modern web technologies to present data in an intuitive manner
SSML Portal, Top Level Page
3
Introduction
Coggi, McNeill
SSML ArchitectureCurrent System Architecture Is Extensible
Space
Weather
Database
Space Weather
Feed
(NOAA)
Internet
Space
Surveillance
Database
(SpaceTrack mirror)
Aeronet
Space Object
Energy Assessment
Database
(SIFT)
Space Object
Conjunction
Database
(CSIEVE)
Aeronet
User
SSML Server and DatabaseProcesses that regularly and autonomously:
- Monitor satellite orbital energy change events
using SIFT. Email subscribers of significant
events. Archive results to database.
- Detect co-orbital pairs of satellites. Email
subscribers of significant co-orbital satellite pairs.
- Update Space Surveillance Catalog statistics
(Space Object Analyzer)
- Monitor space weather and archive to database.
. Email subscribers of significant space weather
events
- Use AJAX and web services to pull data together
and display “live” views in user’s web browser.
Data Sources SSML server User
http://ssa.aero.org
Coggi, McNeill© The Aerospace Corporation 2013
SSML Current Capabilities
Coggi, McNeill
Space Weather Data and InformationInteractive Display of Archival Data from NOAA
6
Ap index history
In addition to the solar wind proton density and Ap index, the Kp index, solar wind bulk
speed, sunspot count, and sunspot area displays all have historical plots behind them.
Solar wind proton density history
Click on the
displays to show
time histories of
measurements.
Coggi, McNeill
Space Weather Data and InformationIntegration of GEO Space Weather Hazards
7
• Real-time displays- single event upset hazard
- solar panel total dose
- spacecraft internal charging at GEO
- spacecraft surface charging hazard
• The hazard levels are computed using algorithms provided by Dr. Paul O'Brien of Aerospace
• The spacecraft surface charging hazard level is derived from the current Kp index, time of day, and longitude of the GEO spacecraft.
• The SEU hazard is computed from the current >30 MeV Proton flux at GEO.
Spacecraft surface charging hazard index varies across the GEO
longitudinal band as a function of Kp index and time.
Coggi, McNeill
• SIFT detects changes in the orbital energy of a satellite based on its past behavior.
• Significant deviations from expected behavior are indicative of an orbital event.
– Maneuver
– Collision
– Decay
SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event MonitoringSpace Incident Flagging Technique (SIFT)2
SIFT Uses a Moving Window Curve Fit Method
2 Patera, R. P., “Space Event Detection Method,” Proceedings of the AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference and Exhibit,
AIAA 2006-6513, August 2006.
8
Moving window
for curve fitExpected Energy
Actual energy
Time
Sa
tell
ite
Orb
ita
l E
ne
rgy
Past Current
Deviation from expectation expressed as a
function of past residuals (we call the deviation
“sigmas”). Large sigmas indicate large deviation
from orbital energy expectation.
Coggi, McNeillCoggi, McNeill
• Top 10 Most Recent SIFT Events
• Top 10 Most Active Objects in Past Month
• Top 10 Largest SIFT Events in Past Month
9
SIFT - Top 10 Lists
Coggi, McNeill
SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event MonitoringDetection of GALAXY-15 Orbital Changes
10
During April 5-9, 2010, there was a sudden increase in geomagnetic activity indicative of a minor solar storm.
Satellite operators lost control of GALAXY 15 on April 8. The storm was thought to be the reason the satellite was
knocked out and started to drift. SSML/SIFT detected a moderate orbital anomaly in GALAXY 15 on April 9. The
space weather module of SSML also noted extremely high geomagnetic activity at that time (A and Kp indices).
MAY 11, 2010 LONDON (AP) - A TV
communications satellite is drifting
out of control thousands of miles
above the Earth, threatening to
wander into another satellite's orbit
and interfere with cable programming
across the United States, the
satellites' owners said Tuesday.
Communications company Intelsat
said it lost control of the Galaxy 15
satellite on April 8, possibly because
the satellite's systems were knocked
out by a solar storm. Intelsat cannot
remotely steer the satellite to remain
in its orbit, so Galaxy 15 is creeping
toward the adjacent path of another
TV communications satellite that
serves U.S. cable companies.
GALAXY 15 orbital events (red) and semi-major axis (green)
Jan 2010 through April 2011
Loss of control.
Drift begins
Coggi, McNeill
SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event MonitoringDetection of GALAXY-15 Orbital Changes
11
Nine months later, on Jan 1 2011, a large SIFT event was generated indicative of a significant orbital change.
Email notifications of the change were automatically sent to SSML subscribers. Orbital change activity is
confirmed by the Wikipedia article on the right. Subsequent GALAXY 15 repositioning efforts also generated
significant, but smaller, SIFT events.
On 27 December 2010, Intelsat
reported that the satellite had
rebooted as per design and the
command unit was responding to
commands again. In addition, the
satellite had been secured in safe
mode and the potential for
interference issues from Galaxy 15
had ceased.[1] [2] On 14 January
2011 the satellite was located near
93° west,[3][4] where further testing
is scheduled to be performed.[5] On
March 18, 2011, Galaxy 15 has been
re-certified from the FAA and is now
sending GPS signal corrections. It
will be repositioned back to its
original location by about April 4,
2011.[6] [Source: Wikipedia]
GALAXY 15 orbital events (red) and semi-major axis (green)
Jan 2010 through April 2011
Loss of control.
Drift begins
Control Regained
Large SIFT event
generated when
control regained
Coggi, McNeill
SIFT - Satellite Orbital Event MonitoringComparison of SIFT orbital energy change detections versus actual satellite maneuvers
12
Actual 4-year maneuver history of satellite ERS-2 (blue) versus automated energy change
detections by SIFT (in sigmas, red). Large sigma values are good indicators of ERS-2 maneuvers.
(Note: only SIFT values > abs(3) are shown)
Coggi, McNeill
Satellite Proximity Detection“All-on-all” detection of co-orbital satellite pairs
13
• Automated system detects co-orbital pairs of satellites
• Sorted by Total Time per Day within threshold distance
• List refreshed every day
• New pairs are highlighted
• Pairs from different countries are highlighted
• Click on a satellite to view the pair in GADGET, an Aerospace web-based tool for information on Earth orbiting satellites
• Click on link in GADGET to generate SOAP* orb file of pair
* SOAP is the Satellite Orbit Analysis Program, a GOTS tool that provides trajectory simulation and visualization capabilities.
ARABSAT 2A and SL-12 R/B[2] – proximity pair
Coggi, McNeill
Space Object AnalyzerQuantify and categorize objects in the space environment
14
Explanative text
below each plot
Plots generated daily by the Space Object Analyzer show
• the rate of growth in the
space surveillance catalog
• how much of the catalog is
debris
• how much debris was
created by major events
• how much debris is in the
various orbit regimes
• what countries are
attributable to the objects
cataloged
Coggi, McNeill
Space Object AnalyzerVarious types of plots available
15
Cumulative space catalog growth over time
Space objects cataloged by year
Non-debris objects by year and country
Debris created from key events
Space objects categorized by orbit
Debris objects by year and country
Coggi, McNeill
Conjunction AssessmentsData from CSIEVE conjunction assessment program
16
SSML High-Level Summary of Top
Three Conjunction Assessments in terms
of Probability and Range
Click to download
SOAP simulation
of each potential
conjunction
SOAP simulation of
conjunction showing error
ellipsoids, location over earth,
angle of attack, relative
velocities, miss distance
Coggi, McNeill 17
Automated Event Notifications via EmailUser-defined notifications
Notifications Setup Page for SSML Registered Users
and SIFT Event Notification from GALAXY-15 reposition
Coggi, McNeillCoggi, McNeill 18
Information and Statistics on Unclassified TLEsIncoming Two-line Element Set (TLE) Statistics
SSML Webpage on TLE Statistics
Space Surveillance Catalog statistics
• Tabulates number of new TLEs posted by day
• Lists the Top 50 most updated objects in the past 24 hours
Coggi, McNeillCoggi, McNeill 19
Information and Statistics on Unclassified TLEsRegarding TLE Update Frequencies
SSML Webpage on TLE Updates
Custom Space Surveillance Catalog Statistics
• Lists the Top n most updated objects over a given date range
Coggi, McNeill© The Aerospace Corporation 2013
Summary
Coggi, McNeillCoggi, McNeill
Real-time space weather display (NOAA)
• 7-day space weather forecast
• Current and historical A and Kp geomagnetic indices
• Current and historical solar wind speed and density
• Current and historical sunspot count
• GOES electron and proton particle fluxes
• Solar flares and other space weather indices
• GEO surface charging hazard index
• GEO internal charging hazard index
• GEO single event upset hazard index
Satellite orbital energy change detection and notification (SIFT)
• Top most recent events
• Top ‘movers and shakers’
• Graphical displays of energy changes
GEO Debris Explorer
• High-accuracy GEO debris propagation and ephemeris download
User-defined notifications of anomalous events
Statistical analysis of TLE catalog
Notification of new objects in the unclassified TLE catalog
Web services to share data across the network
21
Summary of Capabilities
Coggi, McNeillCoggi, McNeill
• Delta-V estimator for consecutive TLEs
– Working on algorithms to compute Delta-V
– Plot estimated Delta-V in same plot as orbital energy changes
• Proximity detection and monitoring
– Perform autonomous all-on-all detection of co-orbital satellites
• Dedicated satellite conjunctions page
– View upcoming potential conjunctions, color-coded by probability
• GEO Debris Explorer
– For a given run, produce SOAP orb file showing nearby debris
• LEO Debris Explorer
– Develop a capability similar to the GEO Debris Explorer but for LEO objects
• More plotting enhancements
– Adopt new “HighStock” plot type where appropriate
• Easy Trajectory improvements
– Support multiple objects, date ranges
22
Future Work
Coggi, McNeill
John Coggi
Principal Investigator, Engineering Methods
Eyal Amir
Architect and Web Master
Dr. Raymond Swartz
Space Incident Flagging Technique (SIFT) Co-Developer and Specialist
Dr. Bill Ailor
Principal Investigator, Independent Research & Development
Justin McNeill, Jr.
Co-Investigator, Independent Research & Development
23
The Team
Coggi, McNeill© The Aerospace Corporation 2013
Thank you.
For more information, you may contact
Justin McNeill, Jr.
The Aerospace Corporation, Pasadena
626.395.0454, [email protected]
John Coggi
The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo
310.336.9322, [email protected]
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