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The State of Food and
Agriculture 2004
FAO Council
Hundred and Twenty-seventh Session
22-27 November 2004
2
The world is not on track in the fight against hunger …
Millions
Point estimates prepared in 2003
Target
Millions
900
800
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
10001000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Latest available point estimates
Undernourished Peoplein Developing Countries
1999 – 2001
798 million
3
Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001
4
Reduction
Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001
5
Reduction
Increase
Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001
6
Progress and setback
Change in numbers of undernourished in developing countries from 1990-92 to 1999-2001 (millions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
IncreaseReduction
+ 76
- 95
China
Decrease of 58 million
- 37
7
Food emergency hotspots
Major armed conflict (Oct 2004)
Hunger hotspots in 2004
8
World agricultural production increased in 2003
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1990-2000 2001 2002 2003
Agriculture Crops Livestock
% Average annual growth
9
Production in developing countries outpaces developed countries
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1990-2000 2001 2002 2003
Developed countries Developing countries
% Average annual growth in agricultural production
10
Cereal production meets utilization
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05**
Production
Utilization
Million tonnes
**: Forecast
11
As cereal stocks fall, prices rise
Cereal price indexIndex 1990-92 = 100
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05*
Stock to utilization ratio (%)
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
*: Forecast
12
Commodity prices have recovered
80
100
120
140
160
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04*
Meat
Cereals
Oils
Foodstuffs
Index 1990-92 = 100
*: 10-month average
13
Global agricultural exports resume growth trend
Agricultural exports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Billion US$
14
Supermarkets are growing rapidly in developing countries
Source: Reardon et al.
Supermarket share of retail food sales%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
SouthAmerica
East Asia (excl. China)
CentralEurope
South Africa
China(urban)
Guatemala*
1992 2002
*: 1995 and 2002
15
Trade integration can support food securityCountries by % population undernourished
Ag imports + Ag exports / Ag GDP
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
<2.5%
2.5-4%
5-19%
20-34%
>34%
16
Dependence on agriculture is greater in those countries where hunger is most prevalent
% of population who depend on agriculture for their livelihood
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
<2.5%
2.5 - 4%
5 - 19%
20 - 34%
>= 35%
Countries by % population undernourished
17
Investment in agriculture lags where hunger is most prevalent
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
<2.5%
2.5 - 4%
5 - 19%
20 - 34%
>= 35%
1976 - 1980
1996 - 2001
Capital stock per agricultural worker (constant 1995 US$)
Countries by % population undernourished
18
Public expenditure fails to reflect the importance of agriculture
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
<2.5%
2.5 - 4%
5 - 19%
20 - 34%
>= 35%
1990-92 average
1996-98 *
Agricultural orientation index*: or most recent
Countries by % population undernourished
19
Development assistance does not target the neediest countries
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
<2.5%
2.5 - 4%
5 - 19%
20 - 34%
>= 35%
1999-2001
External assistance to agriculture(constant 1995 US$ per agricultural worker)
Countries by % population undernourished
20
Conclusions
• Agricultural production is growing strongly in developing countries
• Recent commodity price increases reversing
• Progress in fighting hunger continues in many countries, but others are falling behind
• Investment in agriculture effective in reducing hunger
• But these investments are not being made in the neediest countries
