The Status of Puget Sound Chinook Salmon

What do we know? and How do we know it?

Kit RawsonTulalip Tribes

Salmon Recovery

What was the status of the resource historically?

What is the status of the resource now?

What is the desired future status of the resource?

How’d we get here?

Recovery Plan

Salmon Recovery

What was the status of the resource historically?

What is the status of the resource now?

What is the desired future status of the resource?

How’d we get here?

Recovery Plan

Population Parameters (from “VSP”) Abundance Productivity Diversity Spatial Structure

Abundance Census of individuals (how many?) Total biomass (how much?) Count or biomass at:

single life stage whole population

Abundance Census of individuals (how many?)

Spawning escapement Eggs Juvenile outmigration Adult return

Spawning Escapement

Snoqualmie Chinook

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999

NOR Escapement

Spawning Escapement Smith and Castle (1994) Redd counts (approx. weekly)

Aerial, foot, float surveys Assume 2.5 fish/redd, 21-day “visible redd

life” Supplemented with peak live, dead

counts Varying methods for expanding to

unsurveyed or poor visibility areas

Spawning Escapement No estimate of variance No standard method for separating

hatchery and natural-origin

Snoqualmie Chinook

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999

NOR Esc Total Esc

Adult Return Run Reconstruction

Escapement + Terminal harvest + Mixed-stock harvest

Chinook complications Immature fish harvest Non-landed mortality Age distribution

Coded-Wire Tag Program

Who Catches These Fish?Snohomish Chinook – 1980-1986

Term NetPS Sport

PS PreTrm Net

Canada

Alaska

Escapement

WA ocean

W ho Catches These Fish?Snohom ish Chinook – 2000 Plan

WA ocean

Escapement

CanadaPS PreTrm

Net

PS Sport

Term Net

Snoqualmie Chinook

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999

W(t) W(t)+C(t)

Puget Sound ChinookMarine Survival Index

Marine Survival IndexPuget Sound Fall Fingerling

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993

Brood Year

Ind

ex

(1

98

6-1

99

2 B

as

e)

STFF

NIFF

NKFF

GCFF

GRFF

GAD

Mean

Snoqualmie – Current Conditions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Spawners

Rec

ruit

s

Equilibrium = 2,300

Snoqualmie

0

10000

20000

30000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Spawners

Rec

ruit

s

Equilibrium = 19,300(low mar. surv.)

HISTORIC

RECOVERY GOAL

RECENT OBSERVATIONS

Juvenile Outmigration

Juvenile outmigration Sampling error ( 0.75 – 1.65%

captured) Traps upstream of

some rearing areas Variable time and

size of migration

Sakgit 0+ ChinookBrood PED wild

Year Est. Esc. (million) outmigrants surv cfs date1989 8084 20.01 1.7 8.5% 88200 05-Dec1990 18303 45.30 0.5 1.1% 142000 25-Nov1991 7060 17.47 2.4 13.7% 40100 01-Feb1992 8334 20.63 3 14.5% 27600 26-Jan1993 6584 16.30 2.7 16.6% 32100 11-Dec1994 6019 14.90 1.5 10.1% 55700 28-Dec1995 7732 19.14 0.7 3.7% 132000 30-Nov1996 11664 28.87 4.5 15.6% 47600 20-Jan1997 5913 14.63 2.4 16.4% 32800 17-Dec1998 15695 38.85 6.4 16.5% 51900 14-Dec1999 5395 13.35 1.7 12.7% 76000 13-Nov

high flow

Skagit 0+ Chinook

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Skagit 0+ Chinook

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Puget Sound TRT A&P Workbooks For each of 22 natural chinook

populations

Puget Sound TRT A&P Workbooks Data (some incomplete)

Natural escapement estimates Hatchery/natural origin split Exploitation rate estimates Juvenile production Environmental predictors (marine

survival, flow)

Puget Sound TRT A&P Workbooks Analyses

Run reconstruction Trends and variance about trends Spawner/recruit relationships

Questions Q: What are the best indices of

salmon status to use across species and areas?

A: Focus on natural populations/stocks Look at trends in natural escapement

and total return Control for marine survival and other

signals

Questions Q: Over what time period should we

assess recovery? Can we separate factors affecting abundance on different time scales? Should we?

A: 20 years + Yes Yes

Questions Q: How accurately do we need to

measure salmon populations to effectively manage them?

A: Management systems need to be

robust to imprecise and inaccurate assessments of status

Even so, we probably need better estimates than we have now.

Questions Q: Regional or “top-down” approach

best (both within and between ESUs)?

A: Regional/local focus is best for adaptive

management Needs a few, well-understood guiding

principles