8/7/2019 The Stories from the Monthly Charts as April Begins

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8/7/2019 The Stories from the Monthly Charts as April Begins

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The Trading Range Scenario – The Dow Industrial Average remains in a trading range between itsMarch 16th low at 11,555.48 and its February 18th high at 12,391.29. Strength can stretch to my new

monthly risky level at 12,481, which would still be a high below 12,600. The downside risk remains myannual value level at 11,491.

Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally – We are operating under a ValuEngine ValuationWatch with more than 60% of all stocks overvalued. At Thursday’s close 62.1% of all stocks wereovervalued. In addition all 16 sectors are overvalued with 11 by double-digit percentages. AValuEngine Valuation Warning occurs when more than 65% of all stocks are overvalued. This lastoccurred at the mid-February highs.

10-Year Note – (3.454) Daily, weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 3.530, 3.641, 3.796 and4.016 with monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at, 3.181, 2.690, 2.441, and 2.322. Themonthly chart favors an up trend for yields beginning with the December 2008 low yield at 2.016. This

corresponds to when the Federal Reserve cut the funds rate to zero to 0.25%. The up trend goesthrough the low yield at 2.334 set in October 2010 in the midst of the QE2 hype.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – ($1434.60) Annual, semiannual and annual value levels are $1356.5, $1300.6 and$1187.2 with a daily pivot at 1429.1, and semiannual, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at$1452.6, $1469.8, 1523.7 and 1559.9. The monthly chart is overbought and the price pattern looks lika parabolic rise that accelerated as the Fed cut the funds rate to zero in mid-December 2008. 

8/7/2019 The Stories from the Monthly Charts as April Begins

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – ($106.65) My annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91with a weekly pivot at $105.31, and semiannual, daily and quarterly risky levels at $107.14, $108.20,$114.27 and $120.52. The semiannual level at $107.14 was tested overnight and is now a pivot.The monthly chart is overbought and oil was as low as $33.20 per barrel just after the Fed cut the

funds rate to zero percent. A zero percent funds rate was clearly a license for traders to speculate. 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

8/7/2019 The Stories from the Monthly Charts as April Begins

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The Euro – (1.4167) My quarterly value level is 1.3401 with daily, weekly and monthly pivots at1.4051, 1.4119 and 1.4190 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4308 and 1.4624. The euro

tested its 120-month simple moving average at 1.2085 in June 2010.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Monthly Dow: (12,320) Annual and semiannual value levels are 11,491, 10,959, and 9,449 withmonthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,481, 13,774 and 13,890. We show overbought MOJO

with the 120-month simple moving average as support at 10,500.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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