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Technology
Most dramatic force transforming the
internationalenvironment
From biotechnology to computer technology
Provides for new markets and opportunities
Poses substitution threat to existing technologiesand
industries
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Techno-Economic Paradigms
5 economic business cycles since industrialrevolution (+1
prediction)
Early mechanisation (1770s 1840s)
Steam power and railway (1830s-1890s) Electrical and heaving
engineering (1880s-1940s)
Fordist mass production (1930s to 1990s)
Information and communication (1980s to 2015?)
Information omnipresence (2010-2035)
Typical cycle 60-70 years including 10 yearsoverlap with
alternative paradigms at the
emergent and declining phases
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Techno-Economic Paradigms(cont.)
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Techno-Economic Paradigms(cont.)
Information & Communication(1980s-2040s?)
Driven by microprocessor 2 phases of new infrastructure
development:
A number of carrier branches - computer systems,operating
systems and software, telecommunications
equipment, satellites, electronic networks, roboticsetc.
Carrier branch industries converging into a newinformation-based
infrastructure capable of providingdata, text, sound and image
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Techno-Economic Paradigms(cont.)
Outcomes of techno-economic paradigms:
Emergence of new industries based on the keytechnologies and
resources.
Effective solutions to the limitations of previous
techno-economic paradigms.
New infrastructure both on national and international
levels.
Countries gaining technological and economic leadershippositions
from the application of key technologies and
resources.
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The Information Revolutionand the Internet
The global network
E-Learning including education, informationand training
Internet commerce providing end to end
solutions to conduct sales transactions
Customer support enabling the creation ofinnovative support
offerings
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International Diffusion ofInnovation
Diffusion - movement of new products to and inoverseas markets
for consumption
Time lags in diffusion impact on the costs andviability of the
business
Diffusion process characterised by productionlag-time and market
lag-time
Adoption process Awareness, interest, evaluation, trial and
adoption
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Adopter Categories
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Adopter Categories (cont.)
Influenced by
Relative advantage over existing alternatives
Compatibility with local customs and habits
Complexity of product
Ability to trial the product before committing to it
Ability to observe product
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The TechnologyAdoption Life Cycle
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6 Zones of theTechnology Adoption Cycle
1. Early market Focus on
technology
enthusiasts2. Chasm
Period betweeninitial enthusiasm
and mainstreamacceptance
3. Bowling alley Niche based
adoption
4. Tornado Mass market
adoption
5. Main street Fulfilment of
market potential
6. End of life
Decline andreplacement oftechnology
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Lead Users
Characteristics Have needs that are general in a market but
confront
them much earlier than the rest of the market
Positioned to gain substantial benefits by obtaining asolution
to those needs
Advantages of focusing on lead users Present needs are likely to
become general
Serve as a need forecasting benchmark for marketresearch
Provide new product concept and design data whenaddressing
needs
