THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY,

THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007

BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, CONFLICTS AND CHANCES"

GIS BASED MODELING THE POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURAL BIOMASS SUITABLE FOR FUEL: A CASE STUDY IN KAUNAS COUNTY

Gintautas Mozgeris*, Vanda Valerija Buivydaitė*, Daiva Tiškutė-Memgaudienė*, Farida Eugenija Dzenajavičienė**, Stanislovas

Vrubliauskas*** Lithuanian University of Agriculture, ** Lithuanian Energy Institute

The key question to be answered

• how much resource is available or may be available

• how much resources can be utilized for competing product lines for energy production from biomass



Aim

• To introduce GIS based modeling of the potential of agricultural biomass suitable for fuel, carried out within the frames of BSR INTERREG IIIB Baltic Biomass Network project for Kaunas County.



Study area

• Kaunas county - 6 districts – Kaunas, Kedainiai, Kaisiadorys, Jonava, Prienai, Raseiniai, and 2 cities – Kaunas and Birstonas



The soil fertility grades for all Lithuanian agricultural areas

Methods (1)

• For assessment the past trends in production of agricultural biomass, statistical data on yields, acreages and harvested amounts for Kaunas County was collected for the period 2000-2005 (6 years).



Methods (2)

• The technical parameters for modelling specific crops and solid fuel recovery methods used were as follows:



Methods (3)

• To model the yields of agricultural crops a standard soil database at a scale 1:10000 was modified to meet the requirement of the study.

• For the estimation of potential yield for all possible agricultural crops the soils were grouped according to the soil type category and within soil type on soil subtype, soil genera, soil phase, species and soil variety categories.

• Modeled potential yields were used to calculate the theoretical maximal energetic potential of any crop, possessing commercial and technical interest for energy production.



Results (1)

• None of agricultural crops maintained stable acreages during years 2000-2005



Common winter wheat Winter rye Winter barley

Sugar beet Potatoes Rape

200520042003200220012000

Results (2)

• The dynamics of available energy potential for heating in MWh from three different crops in Kaunas County: a) straw potential; b) grain potential



0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

MW

h


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

MW

h


a) b)

Results (3)

• The dynamics of available energy potential in MWh from three different crops in Kaunas County for: a) bioethanol production, b) bio-diesel production



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

MW

h

Winter rape Spring rape

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

MW

h

Common winter wheat Winter rye

Potato Sugar beet

a) b)

Results (4)

• Potential yields for main agricultural crops, cnt/ha: a) potato; b) sugar beet; …



a) b)

Results (5)

• Potential yields for main agricultural crops, cnt/ha: …, c) wheat; d) barley; …



c) d)

Results (6)

• Potential yields for main agricultural crops, cnt/ha: …, e) rye



e)

Results (7)

• Maximal theoretical energetic values of main cereals in municipalities of Kaunas County were calculated



Conclusions (1)

1. There is no clear tendency for the acreage of some specific agricultural crop to increase or decrease significantly in municipalities of Kaunas County during the period 2000-2005.

2. The most attractive agricultural crop for bioenergy production in Kaunas County is wheat. The acreages of wheat in Kaunas County was increasing in the period of 2000-2005.

3. Energy potential for heating if all harvest of wheat is used for bioenergy, reaches 250000 MWh in 2005 for straw and 350000 MWh for grain.



Conclusions (2)

4. Sugar beet if used for bioethanol production could yield approximately 150000 MWh annually during the period 2000-2005.

5. The potential of rape for bio-diesel production tends to grow since the years 2002-2003 to reach 120000 MWh in 2005.

6. Maximal theoretic energetic values of main cereals and other agricultural crops can be modeled using GIS-based approaches. Relatively largest amounts of energy could be achieved using grain as fuel.



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THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE RURAL DEVELOPMENT 2007 BALTIC BIOMASS NETWORK SECTION “BIOENERGY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY,