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The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
Richard Swinbank, Zoltan Toth and Philippe Bougeault,
with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group and other colleagues
TIGGE overview
Introduction to TIGGE Objectives The TIGGE archive TIGGE-LAM
Early results based on TIGGE data Intercomparison of ensemble forecasts Use of multi-model ensembles
Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System Implementing THORPEX science
The TIGGE User Workshop What users can learn about TIGGE this week
TIGGEA key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of
humanity
The TIGGE project has developed a database of global ensemble forecasts collected in near real-time.
Objectives: Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both
internationally and between operational centres & universities.
Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors
Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”
For more about TIGGE, see http://tigge.ecmwf.int
TIGGE infrastructure Data collected in near-
real time (via internet) at central TIGGE data archives
Could be implemented at relatively little cost
Can handle current data volumes (approaching 300 GB/day) within available network and storage capabilities
More information in Baudouin Raoult’s presentation tomorrow
NCAR
EPS 1 EPS 2 EPS n
academic NHMS users
Predictability science
Applications
ECMWF CMA
Summary of TIGGE database
CentreEnsemblemembers
Output dataresolution
Forecastlength
Forecasts per day
Fields (out of 73)
Start date
BOM 33 1.50º x 1.50º 10 day 2 55 3 Sep 07
CMA 15 0.56º x 0.56º 10 day 2 60 15 May 07
CMC 21 1.00º x 1.00º 16 day 2 56 3 Oct 07
CPTEC 15 1.00º x 1.00º 15 day 2 55 1 Feb 08
ECMWF 51N200 (Reduced
Gaussian)N128 after day 10
15 day 2 70 1 Oct 06
JMA 51 1.25º x 1.25º 9 day 1 61 1 Oct 06
KMA 17 1.00º x 1.00º 10 day 2 46 28 Dec 07
Météo-France 11 1.50º x 1.50º 2.5 day 1 62 25 Oct 07
NCEP 21 1.00º x 1.00º 16 day 4 69 5 Mar 07
UKMO 24 1.25º x 0.83º 15 day 2 70 1 Oct 06
TIGGE-LAM: TIGGE for limited-area models
The TIGGE-LAM panel, chaired by Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIM), supports the development of the Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System component of TIGGE. This Panel works in close coordination with the GIFS-TIGGE WG, in liaison with pre-existing LAM EPS initiatives and in coordination with the THORPEX regional committees.Aims:
encourage a coordinated approach to LAM EPS for the mutual benefit of WMO members;
facilitate the interoperability of the different modelling systems contributing to TIGGE;
coordinate the archiving of limited-area ensemble forecasts – the three TIGGE archive centres have agreed to host a sub-set of high priority data;
contribute to the definition of scientific issues related to LAM EPS and particularly to TIGGE-LAM and propose specific initiatives to address these issues to advance LAM EPS.
Comparison of RPSS N. hem Z500
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ecmwf ukmo jma10 categories, cases 20061201-20070228_N90, area n.hemz at 500hPa (cf_as_an)
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ecmwf ukmo ncep jma10 categories, cases 20070328-20070528_N62, area n.hemz at 500hPa (cf_as_an)
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ecmwf ukmo jma cma bmrc10 categories, cases 20070607-20070831_N84, area n.hemz at 500hPa (cf_as_an)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
fc-step (d)
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ecmwf ukmo ncep msc jma cma bmrc kma10 categories, cases 20071002-20071115_N45, area n.hemz at 500hPa (cf_as_an)
DJF07 (90c)
JJA07(84c)
ECMWFUKMONCEPMSCJMA
CMABMRC
KMA
ON07(45c)
AM07(62c)
from Park et al, 2008
Comparison of extra-tropical cyclone tracks
Courtesy Lizzie Froude
Ensemble mean error: Position(verified against ECMWF analyses)
Ensemble mean error – Propagation speed
Propagation speed bias
Comparison of multi-model ensemble with ECMWF
Courtesy
Mio Matsueda
MGCE5110 members from each of 5 centres
MCGE168All 12Z forecasts
MCGE327All forecasts for each day
Multi-model combination: MSLP & T2m
Brier skill-scores of multi-model combination of bias-corrected ECMWF, Met Office and NCEP forecasts.Mean Sea Level Pressure and 500 hPa (not shown) show only small benefits from combining different models2m temperature shows more benefit (1-5 days improvement in lead time)More sophisticated weighting led to only small additional skill
Courtesy Christine Johnson
T2m > mean
MSLP > mean
T2m > 90 %
Similarity of ensembles
betweenS
between MSE
D has small values (high similarity, blue) if the between model variance is small compared to the mean-square-error of the multi-model mean.
mslp temp
D+2
D+10
D+2
D+10
MSEbetween
betweenD
Applications: flood prediction
Predictions with a 5-day lead-time for a flood event on River Jiu in Romania
from Pappenberger et al, 2008
Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
The objective of the GIFS is to realise the benefits of THORPEX research by improving the delivery of improved forecasts of high-impact weather.
As a first step, the GIFS-TIGGE working group set up a pilot project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions using “Cyclone XML” format.
Further plans for the development of GIFS will be presented by Zoltan Toth, and discussed later in the workshop.
The TIGGE User Workshop
Overview of the TIGGE project The TIGGE archive and how to access it:
Presentation during TIGGE-B session, Tuesday afternoon Hands-on user demonstrations in coffee/poster breaks Opportunity for you to tell us what you need
Presentations of early results from TIGGE In TIGGE-A/B/C/D sessions and throughout the symposium.
Plans for GIFS Presentation during TIGGE-C, Thursday afternoon Opportunity to get involved in developing improvements to
operational forecasting of high-impact weather: focus group discussion during Thursday coffee/poster break.
Conclusions Since October 2006, the TIGGE archive has been
accumulating regular ensemble forecasts from leading global NWP centres.
The archive is a tremendous resource for the research community at large, and in particular the science working groups of THORPEX.
TIGGE provides the basis for research and development projects targeted at specific applications of severe weather forecasts (health, energy, flood warning, wind storms, fire weather, etc…).
Products to enhance the prediction of high-impact weather will form the basis of the development of the Global Interactive Forecast System.
TIGGE website: http://tigge.ecmwf.int