The Transition to Electric Bikes in China

BAQ 2006, Dec 14Jonathan Weinert, Inst. of Transp. Studies UC-Davis

Ma Zedan, Tsinghua University

Christopher Cherry, UC-Berkeley

History and Key Factors for Rapid Growth

Outline

1. E-bike Background2. History3. Key Factors

• Technical• Economic• Political• Other

4. Conclusions

Motivation:

1. Successful & FAST adoption of a new transportation technology due to air quality concerns

2. Apply lessons to: 1. Other technologies2. Other countries

Methodology

– Existing Literature– Interviews:

• 23 e-bike companies, 4 factory visits, 5 dealers, 12 users, 1 gov’t rep.

– Surveys• 1,000 e-bike users in Shanghai, Kunming, and

Shijiazhuang (Weinert, Ma, Yang, Cherry 2006, Cherry and Cervero, 2006)

E Bike Background

Insert pix

E-bike Background

• Definition: 2-wheeled vehicle (2WV) propelled by electricity and (sometimes) human power.

Bicycle-style: Scooter Style:

Voltage Power Range Efficiency

36-48 V 240-350 W 30-70 km 1.2-1.5 kWh/100km

E-bike Growth in China

Jamerson, F. and Benjamin, E., 2004 Electric Bicycle World Report, 7th Edition with 2005 update, 2005

Figure 2: Production of E-Bicycles and Cars for the Domestic Market in China

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

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1998

1999

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E-bikes

All Autos

Personal Cars

E-bike Pros and Cons

Pros Cons“0” tail-pipe emissions

75% Coal electricity production1

Energy efficient, charged during off-peak

Lead-emissions from production and recycling

Cheap Safety (quiet, fast, inadequate brakes)

1. Cherry, Weinert, Ma (2006)

History

1. Phase 1: (1980s)• Technology sub-par

2. Phase 2: (early 90s)• Technology better, but not as good as

incumbent

3. Phase 3: (late 90s-present• Technology “competitive” with incumbent• Incumbent crippled by regulation (The

Harding Effect)• Other factors

E-bike Industry

1998: 10 companies

2005: 498 registered (1,000-5,000 unofficial)

Why?: mature, simple technology, weak IP enforcement

Size: 10- 200,000 bikes/year Profit margin: 6%

The Key Factors

Key Factor 1: Technology

Batteries Type: • Valve-regulated lead-acid

– Replaced liquid electrolyte batteries

Motor Type: • Brushless motors

– Longer life, lower maintenance, more power

How has e-bike technology improved?

1997-1998 2006

Manufacturer guaranteed battery lifetime (months)

3 12

Anticipated battery life (months) 7-8 18-24

Battery energy density (Wh/kg) 30 40

Motor efficiency 50% (1995) 85%

E-bike price (USD) ~$300 $125-375

Weinert, Ma, Cherry (2006)

Key Factor 2: Economics

1. Economics

Compact car (gasoline)

Annual Cost (USD/yr)

69 92 160 290 290 770

Fuel economy 0.021 kWh/km

0.015 kWh/km

0.036 L/km

0.04 L/km

0.08 L/km

FuelPrice

($/unit)0.083 /kWh

0.25/trip 0.41/L 0.56/L 0.56/L

Fuel Economy 15Wh/km 29 km/l 27 km/l 12.5km/l

Km / yr 2,600 3,000 4,000 4,300 4,300 10,000

Compact car

Economic/Market Factors

• 2002-06: Gasoline prices rose by 45%(Shanghai)

China National Statistics Report (2005)

1997 2004 % change

Annual Disposable Income of Urban Households / capita (USD)

645 1,178 82%

% of household expenditures on Transportation and Communications

5.2% 11.8% 127%

Key Factor 3: Policy Factors

1. Gasoline scooters bans: – 1994 Tianijn

– 1996 Shanghai

– 1998 Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Suzhou

2. National E-bike standards (‘99)– The “pedal” loophole: create uniform specs for BSEB

and SSEB– Other loopholes (speed, weight, power)

3. Nat’l Road Transportation Safety Law (‘04)– Gave e-bikers right to use bike lane– Gave e-bike industry more confidence

E-bikes: a Tale of Two Cities

• Beijing: – 2002, issued e-bike ban effective 06– 2006, amidst strong oppostion, reversed

decisions– Strictly enforces standards, SSEBs < 5%

• Shanghai– Loosely enforced standards, SSEBs >70%– Banned gasoline scooters 1998

E-bikes growth compared to other 2WVs (Shanghai)

1. Kang, 2004

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2002 2003 2004

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10,000

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E-bikesGasoline scooterLPG scootersBikes

How have regional policy differences affected e-bike sales?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Chengdu Shanghai Shijiazhuang Beijing

% m

ode s

hare

% e-bike

% bike

% MotorScooter

Gov’t Attitude

Pro e-bike Pro e-bike & LPG scooter

Neutral Anti e-bike

Factor X ? ?

Factor Y ? ?

4. Other Factors

• Liberalization of the housing market (started in mid-1990s)

• SARS: early 2003

• Abnormally high summer heat wave (2003)– Why did sales spike

Conclusions

• Technology – Battery life, energy density, motor efficiency

• Macro-economics– Incomes rose, share spent commuting rose

• Industry: – Low barriers to entry, more entrants, falling costs

• National and Local policies– Product standards --> loopholes (SSEB)– Road space

So What Was It?…

– The technology– The market – Or the policy

• Or the timely confluence of all three???

Acknowledgements

Research Supported by: • ITS-Davis (Dr. Joan Ogden & Dan Sperling)• Hong Kong Fok Ying Tung (Huo Ying Dong)

Education Foundation, Project No. 94027• ITS-Berkeley Center for Future Urban

Transport-A Volvo Center of Excellence

• Presentation available at www.jonathanweinert.com/presentations