CNBC Reports: US consumer confidence dips in December

The US-China “Phase One” trade deal will finally come to fruition this week, with China’s top trade official in Washington to sign it. President Trump added to the hype, saying he would fly to Beijing to in January to start discussions on “Phase Two”. Tensions between the US and Iran flared up once again after protestors allegedly backed by Iran stormed the US embassy in Iraq. Last week’s economic data was limited due to the Christmas holiday, but this week’s calendar picks up a bit, despite another mid-week holiday. So far this week, pending home sales rebounded to 1.2% growth this month, in line with expectations, and consumer confidence disappointed after a mild holiday season. After the new year, we are due the FOMC minutes from the December meeting and ISM manufacturing The ISM manufacturing index has been surprising investors lately, showing contraction in manufacturing the last four months, and analysts expect that trend to continue. Yields continue to trade sideways, with the 10yr in a tight range between 1.86% and 1.94%. The yield curve in general has been steepening for the last couple months, alleviating recession fears. With the fed explicitly on the sidelines, the market has a virtually 0% chance of a rate change at the next few meetings, with only a 50% chance of a move by the end of 2020.