The U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Vision …...change and climate change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government. The CCSP, under the direction

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Vision for the Program and Highlights

of the Scientific Strategic Plan

A Report by the Climate Change Science Program andthe Subcommittee on Global Change Research

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20050185640 2020-07-03T23:42:18+00:00Z

James R. MahoneyDepartment of CommerceNational Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministrationDirector, Climate Change Science ProgramChair, Subcommittee on Global ChangeResearch

Ghassem Asrar,Vice ChairNational Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration

Margaret S. Leinen,Vice ChairNational Science Foundation

James AndrewsDepartment of Defense

Mary GlackinNational Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration

Charles (Chip) GroatU.S. Geological Survey

William HohensteinDepartment of Agriculture

Linda LawsonDepartment of Transportation

Melinda MooreDepartment of Health and Human Services

Patrick NealeSmithsonian Institution

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM and SUBCOMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

Aristides PatrinosDepartment of Energy

Jacqueline SchaferU.S. Agency for International Development

Michael SlimakEnvironmental Protection Agency

Harlan WatsonDepartment of State

EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND OTHER LIAISONS

Kathie L. OlsenOffice of Science and Technology PolicyCo-Chair, Committee on Environment andNatural Resources

David ConoverDepartment of EnergyDirector, Climate Change Technology Program

Philip CooneyCouncil on Environmental Quality

David HalpernOffice of Science and Technology Policy

Margaret R. McCallaOffice of the Federal Coordinatorfor Meteorology

Erin WuchteOffice of Management and Budget

This document was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act forFiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and information quality guidelines issued by the Department of Commerce and NOAApursuant to Section 515 (<http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/iq.htm>). For purposes of compliance with Section 515,this climate change science research program is an “interpreted product,” as that term is used in NOAA guidelines.

This document describes a strategic plan for developing scientific knowledge regarding climate change. It does not expressany regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or make any findings of fact that could serve as predicatesfor regulatory action. Agencies must comply with required statutory and regulatory processes before they could rely on anystatements in this document or by the CCSP as a basis for regulatory action.

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program

Vision for the Program and Highlights

of the Scientific Strategic Plan

A Report by the Climate Change Science Program andthe Subcommittee on Global Change Research

July 2003

July 2003

Members of Congress:

Transmitted herewith is a copy of The U.S. Climate Change Science Program:Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific StrategicPlan.The vision document provides an overview of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) long-term strategic plan toenhance scientific understanding of global climate change.This document is a companion to the comprehensive Strategic Plan for theClimate Change Science Program.

The Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program responds to the President’s direction that climate change research activities beaccelerated to provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-relatedissues.The plan also responds to Section 104 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandates the development andperiodic updating of a long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science and TechnologyCouncil.This is the first comprehensive update of a strategic plan for U.S. global change and climate change research since the orig-inal plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program was adopted at the inception of the program in 1989.

The President established the U.S. Climate Change Science Program in 2002 as part of a new cabinet-level management structureto oversee public investments in climate change science and technology.The new management structure also includes the ClimateChange Technology Program, which is responsible for accelerating climate-related technology research and development.The CCSPincorporates the U.S. Global Change Research Program, established by the Global Change Research Act, and the Climate ChangeResearch Initiative, established by the President in 2001.The Program coordinates and integrates scientific research on globalchange and climate change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

The CCSP, under the direction of the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, reports through theInteragency Working Group on Climate Change Science and Technology to the cabinet-level Committee on Climate Change Scienceand Technology Integration.The chairmanship of these coordinating bodies rotates annually between the Departments ofCommerce and Energy, with the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy serving as the Executive Director of thecabinet-level committee.

The CCSP strategic plan, though disseminated by the Department of Commerce, was developed through a multi-agency collabora-tion and has benefited substantially from external review of an earlier discussion draft by a special committee of the NationalAcademy of Sciences – National Research Council, as well as extensive public review by hundreds of scientists and stakeholders.The strategic plan document contains a more detailed discussion of the goals and priorities for the program and how climate andglobal change research activities will be integrated.

The CCSP strategic plan reflects a commitment to high-quality research that advances the frontiers of science and outlines an inte-grated approach for developing an improved understanding of climate change and its potential impacts.The program described inthe vision and strategic plan documents will meet the highest standards of credibility and transparency to support public evaluationof climate change issues.

We thank the participating departments and agencies of the CCSP for their close cooperation and support and look forward toworking with Congress in the continued development of these important programs.

John H. Marburger III, Ph.D.Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy

Executive Director, Committee on Climate Change

Science and Technology Integration

Donald L. EvansSecretary of Commerce

Vice Chair, Committee on Climate ChangeScience and Technology Integration

Spencer AbrahamSecretary of Energy

Chair, Committee on Climate ChangeScience and Technology Integration

Overview:The Need for the Best Available Science to

Address Global Climate Change Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

The Administration’s Actions to Enhance Scientific

Understanding of Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

Development of the CCSP Strategic Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

CCSP Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

CCSP Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17

Core Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

CCSP Organization and Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

About the CCSP Strategic Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

Appendix A:Table of Contents for the CCSP Strategic Plan . . . .30

Appendix B: Principal Areas of Focus for the CCSP Agencies . . .30

Appendix C: Key Gaps in the Science of Climate Change . . . . .33

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Climate shapes the environment, naturalresources, the economy, and other aspects of lifein all countries of the world. Natural and human-induced changes in climate, as well as the optionssuggested for adapting to or slowing changes, mayhave substantial environmental, economic, andsocietal consequences. Decisionmakers, resource

managers, and other interested citizens need reli-able science-based information to make informedjudgments regarding policy and actions. Figure 1illustrates some of the range and complexity ofthe climate system elements that must be consid-ered in addressing short- and long-term climatechange issues.

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OVERVIEW

The Need for the Best Available Science to Address Global Climate Change Issues

“The Earth’s well-being is also an issue important to America. And it’s an issue that should be important to every nation in every part of our world.The issue of climate change respects no border. Itseffects cannot be reined in by an army nor advanced by any ideology. Climate change, with its potentialto impact every corner of the world, is an issue that must be addressed by the world.”

– President Bush, June 11, 2001

Ice SheetGlaciers

Ocean Circulation, Sea Level,Biogeochemistry

H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.Aerosols

Clouds

ATMOSPHERICCOMPOSITION

WATERCYCLE

LAND-USE/ LAND-COVER CHANGE

HUMANCONTRIBUTIONSAND RESPONSES

CARBONCYCLEECOSYSTEMS

Vegetation

Cities

Transportation

Sea-Ice

Volcanoes

Oceans

Rivers

Agriculture

Land Surface

Atmosphere-Ice Interaction

EvaporationPrecipitation

TerrestrialRadiation

Atmosphere-BiosphereInteraction

Vegetation-Soil interaction

Industries

SolarRadiation

HeatExchange

CLIMATEVARIABILITY

AND CHANGE

Figure 1: Major components needed to understand the climate system and climate change.

In May 2001, the Administration asked theNational Academy of Sciences – National ResearchCouncil (NRC) to provide an updated evaluationof key questions about climate change science.Upon receipt of the NRC’s report in June 2001,the President directed the relevant agencies anddepartments of the federal government to buildon the extensive U.S. Global Change ResearchProgram (USGCRP) to accelerate research on themost important uncertainties in climate science,enhance climate observation systems, and improveinformation available to decisionmakers.To accom-plish this, the Administration took several steps:

• The President launched the Climate ChangeResearch Initiative (CCRI) in June 2001, withan enhanced focus on the climate effects ofaerosols (tiny particles) in the atmosphere, thecarbon cycle in the Earth system, climate mod-eling, observations, and development of scien-tific information to support decisionmaking.

• The President created a new, cabinet-levelorganization in February 2002, to improve thegovernment-wide management of climate sci-ence and climate-related technology develop-ment.Two collaborative interagency programswere launched in response to the President’sdirection: the Climate Change Science Program(CCSP) and the Climate Change TechnologyProgram (CCTP).

• In July 2002, a year-long process to prepare a10-year strategic plan for the CCSP was initiat-ed.This planning process was designed toensure a comprehensive examination ofresearch and observation needs, transparentreview by all the international scientific andstakeholder communities, and establishment ofdefined goals for the research.This document,together with the companion CCSP scientificstrategic plan, represents the culmination of theplanning and public review process.

• The United States has also launched an interna-tional effort to design and implement a com-prehensive, multilaterally sponsored Earthobserving system, which will provide criticalinformation to improve climate science andmodeling.This system will build directly upon

the major advances in observations and datamanagement already achieved by the UnitedStates and other nations. A ministerial meetinghosted by the U.S. government in Washingtonin July 2003 is the first step in a planned 10-year effort to greatly improve the ability to“take the temperature of the Earth.”

Vision and Goals

Research and observations can play unique roles inhelping society to deal with key climate changeissues.This gives rise to the guiding vision of theU.S. Climate Change Science Program.

A nation and the global

community empowered

with the science-based

knowledge to manage

the risks and opportunities

of change in the climate and

related environmental

systems.

GUIDING VISIONFOR THE CCSP

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Five principal goals have been adopted to guidethe CCSP.

CCSP GOAL 1

Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and pres-ent climate and environment, including its naturalvariability, and improve understanding of the caus-

es of observed variability and change.

CCSP GOAL 2

Improve quantification of the forces bringingabout changes in the Earth’s climate and

related systems.

CCSP GOAL 3

Reduce uncertainty in projections of how theEarth’s climate and related systems may change in

the future.

CCSP GOAL 4

Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of dif-ferent natural and managed ecosystems and human

systems to climate and related global changes.

CCSP GOAL 5

Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolv-ing knowledge to manage risks and opportunities

related to climate variability and change.

By developing information with the aim of achiev-ing these goals, the program will ensure that itaddresses the most important climate-relatedissues. For each of the goals, the CCSP will pre-pare science-based information resources that sup-port policy discussions and decisionmaking.

CCSP Priorities

While the CCSP Strategic Plan includes a decade-long strategy, it also establishes priorities for thenear term consistent with the President’s ClimateChange Research Initiative.The program priori-tizes three broad sets of scientific uncertainties:atmospheric distributions and effects of aerosols;climate feedbacks and sensitivity, initially focusingon polar feedbacks; and carbon sources and sinks,focusing particularly on North America.

The CCSP will also focus on climate observingsystems, including efforts to document historicalrecords, improve observations for use in climatemodels, enhance ecological observing systems,and improve data and information system architectures.

Development of state-of-the-art climate modelingthat will improve understanding of the causes andimpacts of climate change is also a CCSP priority.These models will be key assets in helping policy-makers, planners, and resource managers addressclimate change issues.

CCSP Principal Products

The CCSP plan calls for the creation of a series ofmore than 20 synthesis and assessment reportsduring the next 4 years.These reports respond tothe CCSP highest priority research, observation,and decision support needs.

In addition to the scheduled integrated reports,the CCSP agencies will continue to sponsor alarge number of research projects and observationprograms each year.The products of these activi-ties – a wide array of peer-reviewed scientificpublications and major observation records – are amajor continuing legacy of the CCSP.

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Development of the Strategic Plan

This Vision Document provides an overview of theCCSP’s long-term Strategic Plan to guide theresearch effort.The Vision Document focuses pri-marily on the goals, products, and approaches ofthe CCSP.The Strategic Plan, spanning more than300-pages, will guide the coordinated efforts ofthe 13 agencies participating in the CCSP.TheStrategic Plan provides more detailed informationon the scientific questions and objectivesaddressed by the program, as well as additionalinformation on the current state of knowledge.The table of contents of the Strategic Plan isreproduced as Appendix A.

The Strategic Plan responds to the President’sdirection that climate change research activities beaccelerated to provide the best possible scientificinformation needed for climate-related decisions.The plan reflects a commitment to high-qualityscience, which requires openness to review and

critique by the wider scientific and stakeholdercommunities.The process by which the plan wasdrafted incorporates the transparency essential forscientific credibility.The program received exten-sive comments and suggestions during its ClimateScience Workshop in December 2002 attended bymore than 1,300 scientists and other participants,including individuals from 47 states and 36nations. In the weeks following the workshop, theCCSP also received 270 sets of written publiccomments, involving nearly 900 pages of text. Inaddition, the CCSP requested and received adetailed evaluation (released in February 2003)from a special committee of the National ResearchCouncil.The NRC will provide a second publicreport in late 2003, expressing the committee’sconclusions and recommendations on the content,objectivity, quality, and comprehensiveness of theupdated Strategic Plan, on the open process usedto produce it, and on the proposed process fordeveloping subsequent findings to be reported bythe CCSP.

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Scientific Review Requested from theNational Academy of Sciences

In May 2001, the Administration asked theNational Academy of Sciences’ National ResearchCouncil to provide an updated evaluation of keyquestions about climate change science, with ref-erence to the recently completed Third Assessment

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), and with reference to ongoingclimate change research in the United States andother nations. The NRC committee report,Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some KeyQuestions, was issued in June 2001.The summaryof the report stated:

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The Administration’s Actions to Enhance ScientificUnderstanding of Global Climate Change

“My Cabinet-level working group has met regularly for the last 10 weeks to review the most recent,most accurate, and most comprehensive science.They have heard from scientists offering a wide spectrumof views.They have reviewed the facts, and they have listened to many theories and suppositions.Theworking group asked the highly respected National Academy of Sciences to provide us the most up-to-date information about what is known and about what is not known on the science of climate change.”

–President Bush, June 11, 2001

“Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, caus-ing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise.Temperatures are, infact, rising.The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to humanactivities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflectionof natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected tocontinue through the 21st century…Because there is considerable uncertainty in current under-standing of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions of greenhouse gasesand aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as ten-tative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or downward)…

“Making progress in reducing the large uncertainties in projections of future climate willrequire addressing a number of fundamental scientific questions relating to the buildup ofgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the behavior of the climate system…In addition, theresearch enterprise dealing with environmental change and the interactions of human societywith the environment must be enhanced…An effective strategy for advancing the understandingof climate change also will require (1) a global observing system in support of long-term cli-mate monitoring and prediction, (2) concentration on large-scale modeling through increased,dedicated supercomputing and human resources, and (3) efforts to ensure that climate researchis supported and managed to ensure innovation, effectiveness, and efficiency.”

Upon receipt of the NRC report in June 2001,the President launched the U.S. Climate ChangeResearch Initiative “…to study areas of uncertain-ty and identify priority areas where investmentscan make a difference.”The CCRI represents afocusing of resources and attention on those ele-ments of the USGCRP that can best supportimproved public debate and decisionmaking in thenear term.The goal of the CCRI is to improveintegration of scientific knowledge (includingmeasures of uncertainty) into policy and manage-ment decisions and evaluation of managementstrategies and choices—within the next 5 years.

To meet this goal, and consistent with theNational Research Council reports, the CCRIaims to:

1. Reduce scientific uncertainty in threekey areas of climate science:

Develop reliable representations of theclimatic forcing resulting from atmos-pheric aerosols. Aerosols and troposphericozone play unique, but poorly quantified, rolesin the atmospheric radiation budget. Proposedactivities include field campaigns (including air-craft missions), in situ monitoring stations,

improved modeling, and satellite data algorithmdevelopment.

Improve our understanding of the globalcarbon cycle (sources and sinks). CCRIfunds will be targeted for activities to carry outthe integrated North American Carbon Program(NACP), a key element of the U.S. CarbonCycle Science Plan.This program will improvemonitoring techniques, reconcile approaches forquantifying carbon storage, and elucidate keyprocesses and land management practices regu-lating carbon fluxes between the atmosphereand the land and ocean.

Increase our knowledge of climate feed-back processes. Poor understanding of “cli-mate feedbacks”—key interactions among twoor more components of the climate system,such as clouds, water vapor, ocean circulation,or sea ice—are responsible for large uncertain-ties in our ability to reliably predict climate vari-ability and change. CCRI will prioritize activi-ties to support increased understanding of feed-back processes.

2. Enhance and expand observations ofthe Earth system. CCRI efforts will contribute

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“As we analyze the possibilities, we will be guided by several basic principles. Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Ouractions should be measured as we learn more from science and build on it…We will act, learn, and actagain, adjusting our approaches as science advances and technology evolves. Our administration will be creative.”

–President Bush, June 11, 2001

The Climate Change Research Initiative Launched in June 2001

The key areas addressed in the June 2001 NRCreport include climate observations; the influenceof aerosols in the atmosphere; carbon sources andsinks in the atmosphere, oceans, and ecosystems;climate modeling; scenarios of human-induced cli-mate impacts; and the integration of scientific

knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effectivedecision support systems.These considerationshave guided the development of the focused cli-mate research and technology initiativesannounced by the President that same month.

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to and benefit from the design and operationalimplementation over the next 10 years of a newinternational, integrated, sustained, and comprehen-sive global Earth observation system to minimizedata gaps and maximize the utility of existingobserving networks.

3. Increase our climate modeling capacity.CCRI will support continued development andrefinement of computational climate models.Priority activities will focus on improving modelphysics (particularly with respect to clouds andaerosols), increasing resolution of climate modelsimulations, improving methods to assimilate obser-vations into model analyses and predictions, andexploring limits to predictability of climate variabil-ity and change. CCRI will also support developmentof climate modeling to provide routine model prod-ucts for policy and management decision support.

The President also launched the parallel ClimateChange Technology Program in June 2001, “…tostrengthen research at universities and national labs,to enhance partnerships in applied research, todevelop improved technology for measuring andmonitoring gross and net greenhouse gas emissions,and to fund demonstration projects for cutting-edgetechnologies.”Technological breakthroughs will beneeded to address the long-term challenge of globalclimate change.The CCSP and the CCTP are closelycollaborating to ensure that: (a) science drives thedefinition of technology needs; and (b) science isused to evaluate the potential consequences of pro-posed technology innovations.

Integration of the Short-Term CCRI and theLong-Term USGCRP to Form The ClimateChange Science Program

The Administration’s Climate Change ResearchInitiative is accelerating key areas of long-termresearch supported by the U.S. Global ChangeResearch Program.The USGCRP was established bythe Global Change Research Act of 1990 to addressnatural and human-induced changes in the Earth’sglobal environmental system; to monitor, under-stand, and predict global change; and to provide asound scientific basis for national and international

decisionmaking.To date, more than $20 billion ofresearch funding has supported the USGCRP.

The near-term focus of the CCRI on key climatechange uncertainties is being balanced with thebreadth of the long-term USGCRP, creating thecombined CCSP program that accelerates researchon key science uncertainties while supportinglong-term advances in understanding the physical,biological, and chemical processes that influencethe Earth system.The budgets of the CCRI andUSGCRP program elements are developed andmaintained separately within the Climate ChangeScience Program, but the program managementstructure is identical for both the CCRI andUSGCRP elements.This combined managementfocus is consistent with the recommendations ofthe 1999 report of the National Research Council,Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways forthe Next Decade.The Pathways report formulated aframework of research questions that has signifi-cantly influenced the development of the CCSPStrategic Plan.

The CCSP must also integrate the products ofcapabilities that make essential contributions toglobal change research, but were outside the orig-inal USGCRP framework.These include the oper-ational environmental satellite system, various insitu ocean and atmospheric observing systems, andassociated data centers.This will facilitate thetransition of research observations into opera-tional systems and the use of research products bymission agencies.

New Cabinet-Level Management StructureCreated in February 2002 to Oversee theClimate Change Science Program and theClimate Change Technology Program

In February 2002, the President created a newCabinet-level management structure, theCommittee on Climate Change Science andTechnology Integration, to oversee the more than$3 billion annual investment in the combined federal climate change research and technologydevelopment programs.The new managementstructure places accountability and leadership for

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the science and technology programs in the rele-vant cabinet departments (see Figure 2). The rel-evant research continues to be coordinatedthrough the National Science and TechnologyCouncil in accordance with the Global ChangeResearch Act of 1990.

Under the new management structure, the CCSPintegrates research on global climate change spon-sored by the Departments of Agriculture,Commerce, Defense, Energy, Health and HumanServices, the Interior, State, and Transportation,

together with the Environmental ProtectionAgency, the National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration, the National Science Foundation,the Agency for International Development, andthe Smithsonian Institution.The Office of Scienceand Technology Policy, the Council onEnvironmental Quality, the National EconomicCouncil, and the Office of Management andBudget also participate.The principal areas ofglobal change research for the CCSP agencies aresummarized in Appendix B.

*Chair and Vice Chair of Committee and Working Group rotate annually.

DOS, DOE, USAID,and Other Agencies

International Activities(including Task Force

on International Energy Cooperation)

Climate Change Policy and Program Reviewby NSC, DPC, NEC

Office of the President

Chair: Secretary of Energy* Vice Chair: Secretary of Commerce*Executive Director: OSTP Director

Secretary of StateSecretary of AgricultureEPA AdministratorOMB Director

NEC DirectorNASA AdministratorSecretary of the InteriorSecretary of HHS

Secretary of TransportationSecretary of DefenseCEQ ChairmanNSF Director

Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration

Chair: Deputy/Under Secretary of Commerce*Vice Chair: Deputy/Under Secretary of Energy*

Executive Secretary: OSTP Associate Director for Science

Members DS/US Level:CEQ, DOD, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA,

HHS, NASA, NEC, NSF, OMB, USDA

Interagency Working Group onClimate Change Science and Technology

Director: Assistant Secretary of Commercefor Oceans and Atmosphere

Members:DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS,

NASA, NSF, OMB, OSTP, Smithsonian, USAID, USDA

Climate Change Science Program

Director: Senior-Level Appointee,U.S. Department of Energy

Members:DOC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOS, DOT, EPA, HHS,

NASA, NSF, OMB, OSTP, USAID, USDA

Climate Change Technology Program

Figure 2: Climate science and technology management structure.

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including the scientific community, stakeholders,non-governmental organizations, interested mem-bers of the public, and the media.

Written comments on the Discussion Draft StrategicPlan were submitted during a public review peri-od.When collated, these comments amounted tonearly 900 pages of input from hundreds of scien-tists, representatives of interest groups, and inter-ested members of the lay public.

In addition, a special committee of the NationalAcademy of Sciences’ National Research Councilreviewed the plan at the request of the CCSP.Thespecial 17-member review committee includedexperts in the physical, biological, social, and eco-nomic sciences. In February 2003, this committeereported its recommendations, which have provid-ed invaluable assistance in the revision of the draftplan.The NRC committee will provide a secondpublic report in late 2003, expressing the com-mittee’s conclusions and recommendations on thecontent, objectivity, quality, and comprehensive-ness of the updated Strategic Plan, on the openprocess used to produce it, and on the proposedprocess for developing subsequent findings to bereported by the CCSP.

The CCSP Strategic Plan is being published afterconsideration of all of the workshop discussions,the full range of written public review commentsreceived by January 2003, and the NRC review ofthe discussion draft plan, as well as an extensiveinternal U.S. Government review process.

The CCSP Strategic Plan responds to thePresident’s direction that climate change researchactivities be accelerated to provide the best possi-ble scientific information needed for climate-related decisions.The plan reflects a commitmentto high-quality science, which requires opennessto review and critique by the wider scientific andstakeholder communities.The process by whichthe Plan was drafted incorporates the transparen-cy essential for scientific credibility.

The Administration released the CCSP DiscussionDraft Strategic Plan for public review in November2002.The discussion draft built upon the signifi-cant investments already made in climate changescience, and was guided by the priority informa-tion needs identified by scientists and stakeholders(i.e., individuals or groups whose interests—financial, cultural, value-based, or other—areaffected by climate variability, climate change, oroptions for adapting to or mitigating these phe-nomena), both nationally and internationally. Itoutlined a comprehensive, collaborative approachfor developing a more accurate understanding ofclimate change and its potential impacts.

External comments played an important role inrevising the initial draft of the plan. A ClimateChange Science Program Workshop held in December2002 in Washington, DC, was attended by 1,300scientists and other participants, including individ-uals from 47 states and 36 nations.The workshopwas designed to facilitate extensive discussion andcomments on the draft plan from all interesteddomestic and international groups and individuals,

Development of the CCSP Strategic Plan

“A fully updated strategic plan for U.S. global change research is under development.This will be thefirst comprehensive update to the strategic plan for the USGCRP (and CCRI) since the original planwas adopted.”

–Secretary of Commerce Donald L. Evans and Secretary of Energy Spencer AbrahamLetter to the President, September 9, 2002

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The plan will guide the conduct of research activi-ties sponsored or conducted by the U.S.Government. It will be modified as warranted bythe emergence of key findings and important newpublic questions.

After the release of the Strategic Plan, the CCSPwill serve in a “credible fact finder” capacity—providing a source of reliable and useful informa-tion to support decisions on global climate changeissues. It will focus on developing synthesis and

assessment reports on climate science findings.Future reports will address the principal foci ofthe Strategic Plan, which are (a) reducing key sci-entific uncertainties, (b) designing and imple-menting a comprehensive global climate andecosystem monitoring and data management sys-tem, and (c) providing information (from a rangeof scenarios and response options) that supportspublic evaluation of climate change responseoptions.

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The United States is a world leader in climatechange research, investing more than $20 billionon such research in the past 12 years. Even withsubstantial budgets, the potential scope of climatechange research, observations, and scientific syn-thesis is so large that the CCSP must clearly iden-tify the highest priority activities for support.Thissection outlines the high-priority CCSP topics andthe basis for their designation.The overall criteriaused to guide individual program and project sup-port decisions are also described.

Information Sources for DeterminingHigh-Priority Activities

In developing priorities, the CCSP has consideredinformation from many sources, including:

• The analysis and reporting requirementsimposed by the Global Change Research Act of1990 (Public Law 101–606)

• The focus on reducing key scientific uncertain-ties through the Climate Change ResearchInitiative of June 2001

• The recommendations in various reports of theNational Research Council, including the fol-lowing key NRC reports:- Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key

Questions, requested by the Administrationand published in June 2001

- Global Environmental Change: Research Pathwaysfor the Next Decade, a seminal report pub-lished in 1999

- Planning Climate and Global Change Research,requested by the Administration as part ofthe CCSP Strategic Plan development andpublished in February 2003

• Climate change assessment reports by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• The annual program plans of the 13 collaborat-ing CCSP agencies and departments, as docu-mented in the annual series of Our ChangingPlanet reports

• The Discussion Draft Strategic Plan published bythe CCSP in November 2002

• The deliberations at the Climate Change ScienceWorkshop in December 2002, which was spon-sored by the CCSP and attended by 1,300 cli-mate specialists

• The written comments submitted after theDecember 2002 CCSP workshop.

Priorities Related to Reducing KeyUncertainties as Recommended by theNRC

The June 2001 NRC report requested by theAdministration provides an extensive summary ofkey climate uncertainties to be addressed.ThePresident’s June 2001 CCRI initiative took specialnote of these NRC recommendations, and direct-ed that additional investments be directed toaddress these important knowledge gaps. Moredetailed information from the NRC reportappears in Appendix C, and key research prioritiesidentified by the NRC follow:

“Predictions of global climate change willrequire major advances in understanding andmodeling of (1) the factors that determineatmospheric concentrations of greenhousegases and aerosols, and (2) the so-called “feed-backs” that determine the sensitivity of the cli-mate system to a prescribed increase in green-house gases. Specifically, this will involvereducing uncertainty regarding: (a) futureusage of fossil fuels, (b) future emissions ofmethane, (c) the fraction of the future fossilfuel carbon that will remain in the atmosphereand provide radiative forcing versus exchangewith the oceans or net exchange with the landbiosphere, (d) the feedbacks in the climate sys-tem that determine both the magnitude of thechange and the rate of energy uptake by theoceans, which together determine the

CCSP Priorities

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The atmosphere is a protective enve-lope for life on Earth, providing keyingredients necessary to sustain lifeand shielding the planet from harmfulradiation. It can transport materialsaround the globe in a matter of weeksyet can hold chemicals for centuriesor longer.The concentrations of thekey gases that might affect climateare changing, as are the processesthat affect the composition of theatmosphere.

CCSP-supported research focuses onhow human activities and naturalprocesses alter the composition of theatmosphere and its energy balance andhow related changes could influenceclimate, ozone, ultraviolet radiation,pollutant exposure, ecosystems, andhuman health. Specific objectivesaddress the recovery of the stratos-pheric ozone layer; the properties anddistributions of greenhouse gases andaerosols; long-range transport ofchemicals and aerosols and implica-tions for regional air quality; and inte-grated assessments of the effects ofthese changes. Issues involving interac-tions between atmospheric composi-tion and climate are of particularinterest.

Benefits from this research include:• Improved description of the global

distributions of aerosols and theirradiative properties

• Knowledge of the importance ofother greenhouse gases besides car-bon dioxide in the climate system

• Understanding the recovery ofthe ozone layer (resulting frominternational compliance withthe Montreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone Layer) and its relation-ship with the climate system

Saharan Dust Off West Africa. The plume extends more than 1,000 miles (1,600km). Scientists are trying to fully understand how such tiny airborne particles — emit-ted worldwide from many different sources — affect climate.

• Strengthened processes withinthe national and internationalscientific communities to pro-vide for integrated evaluation ofimpacts from air pollution andchanges in climate on ecosys-tems and human health.

AtmosphericComposition

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITIONCLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGEGLOBAL WATER CYCLELAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGEGLOBAL CARBON CYCLEECOSYSTEMS HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES

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This is one of seven research elements of the CCSP.These seven program elements focus on keyaspects of the Earth system and provide a mechanism for interagency coordination of scientificactivities.The research elements are introduced in a series of boxes distributed throughout the text.

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magnitude and time history of the temperatureincreases for a given radiative forcing, (e) thedetails of the regional and local climate changeconsequent to an overall level of global climatechange, (f) the nature and causes of the naturalvariability of climate and its interactions withforced changes, and (g) the direct and indirecteffects of the changing distributions of aerosol.Because the total change in radiative forcingfrom other greenhouse gases over the last cen-tury has been nearly as large as that of carbondioxide, their future evolution also must beaddressed. At the heart of this is basic research,which allows for creative discoveries aboutthose elements of the climate system that havenot yet been identified, or studied.

“Knowledge of the climate system and projec-tions about the future climate are derived fromfundamental physics and chemistry throughmodels and observations of the atmosphere andthe climate system. Climate models are builtusing the best scientific knowledge of theprocesses that operate within the climate sys-tem, which in turn are based on observations ofthese systems. A major limitation of thesemodel forecasts for use around the world is thepaucity of data available to evaluate the abilityof coupled models to simulate importantaspects of past climate. In addition, the observ-ing system available today is a composite ofobservations that neither provides the informa-tion nor the continuity in the data needed tosupport measurements of climate variables.Therefore, above all, it is essential to ensure theexistence of a long-term observing system thatprovides a more definitive observational foun-dation to evaluate decadal- to century-scalevariability and change.This observing systemmust include observations of key state variablessuch as temperature, precipitation, humidity,pressure, clouds, sea ice and snow cover, sealevel, sea-surface temperature, carbon fluxes,and soil moisture. Additionally, more compre-hensive regional measurements of greenhousegases would provide critical information abouttheir local and regional source strengths.

“Climate observations and modeling arebecoming increasingly important for a widesegment of society including water resourcemanagers, public health officials, agribusiness-es, energy providers, forest managers, insur-ance companies, and city planners. In order toaddress the consequences of climate change andbetter serve the nation’s decisionmakers, theresearch enterprise dealing with environmentalchange and environment-society interactionsmust be enhanced.This includes support of (a)interdisciplinary research that couples physical,chemical, biological, and human systems, (b)improved capability [to] integrate scientificknowledge, including its uncertainty, intoeffective decision support systems, and (c) anability to conduct research at the regional orsectoral level that promotes analysis of theresponse of human and natural systems to mul-tiple stresses.”

CCSP Responses to the Identified PriorityResearch Needs

The research priorities of the CCSP are reviewedon an annual cycle through the budget process andreflect priority needs and scientific opportunities.While the CCSP Strategic Plan includes a decade-long strategy, it also establishes priorities for thenear term consistent with the CCRI.These priori-ties have been established in response to informa-tion from the above sources.These priorities arereflected in a focusing of resources and enhancedinteragency coordination of ongoing and plannedresearch that can best address major gaps inunderstanding of climate change.The CCSPStrategic Plan provides additional information onthese priorities.

For the near term, the CCSP will emphasizeresearch on three sets of scientific uncertaintieshighlighted by the NRC: (1) atmospheric distribu-tions and effects of aerosols; (2) climate feedbacksand sensitivity, initially focusing on polar feed-backs; and (3) carbon sources and sinks, focusingparticularly on North America.

Climate and climate variabilityinfluence social and naturalenvironments throughout theworld. Climate fluctuations onvarious time scales affect thesuccess of agriculture, the abun-dance and distribution of water,and the demand for energy.Human-induced changes in cli-mate may have substantial envi-ronmental, economic, and soci-etal consequences.

CCSP-supported research onclimate variability and changefocuses on how climate ele-ments such as temperature, pre-cipitation, clouds, winds, andstorminess are affected bychanges in the Earth that resultfrom natural processes andpotentially human activities.Specific objectives include:improved predictions of season-al to decadal climate variations(e.g., the El Niño-SouthernOscillation); improved detec-tion, attribution, and projec-tions of longer term changes inclimate; the potential forchanges in extreme events; thepossibility of abrupt climatechange; and efficient and effec-tive methods of disseminatingaccurate and useful scientificinformation about climate need-ed for decisions.

• Improved forecasts of El Niñoevents

• Better estimates of futurechanges in extreme events andof risks of abrupt changes

• Improved communication andincreased use of scientificinformation on climate vari-ability and change.

In Situ Measurements. This surface buoy with meteorological instrumentation is beingdeployed in the Arabian Sea to help researchers study surface forcings. Source: RobertA. Weller, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Climate Variability and Change


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Benefits from this researchinclude:• Improved ability to distin-

guish natural climatic varia-tions from human contribu-tions to climate change,resulting in more credibleanswers to “If…, then…”policy-related questions

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The CCSP will also focus on climate observingsystems including efforts to: (a) document histori-cal records; (b) improve observations for modeldevelopment and applications; (c) enhance biolog-ical and ecological observing systems; and (d)improve data archiving and information systemarchitectures.These activities will involve substan-tial collaboration with the international climatescience community and with several ongoinginternational programs.The CCSP observationand data management activities will support amajor international initiative to develop a compre-hensive, integrated Earth observing system.This10-year international initiative is being launched atan Earth Observation Summit hosted by theUnited States in July 2003 in Washington, DC.Development of state-of-the-art climate modelingthat will improve understanding of the causes andimpacts of climate change is also a CCSP priority.Based on recommendations in several NRCreports on U.S. climate modeling and USGCRPevaluations, the CCSP agencies are prioritizingnew activities to strengthen U.S. national climatemodeling infrastructure.

Finally, the CCSP plan calls for the creation of aseries of more than 20 synthesis and assessmentreports during the next 4 years.These reportsrepresent principal responses to the top-priorityresearch, observation, and decision support needsdescribed above.The following section describesthese reports in the context of the five overarch-ing goals for CCSP.

In addition to the planned synthesis and assess-ment reports, the CCSP collaborating agencieswill continue to sponsor a large number ofresearch projects each year. Prioritization princi-ples also are applied to the entire group of proj-ects in each of the CCSP study areas.

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CCSP Criteria for Prioritizing Research,Observations, and Scientific SynthesisProjects

To ensure that the program evolves in response toidentified needs, the CCSP has developed the fol-lowing criteria to assist in reviewing priorities forwork elements selected for support:

Scientific or technical quality• The proposed work must be scientifically rig-

orous as determined by peer review.• Implementation plans will include periodic

review by external advisory groups (bothresearchers and users).

Relevance to reducing scientific uncer-tainties and improving decision supporttools in priority areas • Programs must substantially address one or

more of the CCSP goals.• Programs must respond to needs for scientific

information and enhance informed discussionby all relevant stakeholders.

Track record of consistently good pastperformance and identified metrics forevaluating future progress• Programs addressing priorities with good track

records of past performance will be favored forcontinued investment to the extent that timetables and metrics for evaluating futureprogress are provided.

• Proposed programs that identify clear mile-stones for periodic assessment and documenta-tion of progress will be favorably consideredfor new investment.

Cost and value• Research should address CCSP goals in a cost-

effective way.• Research should be coordinated with and lever-

age other national and international efforts.• Programs that provide value-added products to

improve decision support resources will befavored.

Water is crucial to life onEarth.Water changes fromsolid to liquid to gas through anatural cycle that also trans-ports and converts energy.Changes in water vapor,clouds, high-latitude ice andsnow conditions, and land sur-faces are important climatefeedbacks. Humans depend onpredictions of precipitation,evaporation, flow, storage, andextremes (such as floods anddroughts) to plan their accessto and use of water.

CCSP-supported research onthe global water cycle focuseson how natural processes andhuman activities influence thedistribution and quality ofwater, on whether changes inthe water cycle are pre-dictable, and on how variabilityand change in the water cycleaffect society. Specific areasinclude: identifying fluctua-tions of the water cycle anddetermining the causes of thesechanges; predicting precipita-tion and evaporation on timescales of months to years andlonger; and modeling variousphysical, biological, andsocioeconomic processes tofacilitate efficient waterresources management.

Benefits from these researchefforts include:• Measurably improved forecasts

of precipitation and otherwater cycle variables for watermanagers

• Enhanced ability to incorpo-rate cloud feedbacks and pre-cipitation processes in climatemodels

• Long-term global and regional

data sets of critical water-cycle variables from satelliteand surface-based observa-tions, helping to monitorclimate trends and promptlydetect climate change

• Increases in the efficiency ofwater use through betterwater models for policy andplanning.

The Aqua Satellite. Launched into space in May 2002, NASA’s Earth Observing System(EOS) satellite Aqua generates data on the water cycle and other aspects of the environ-ment. Source: NASA.

Global Water Cycle

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TOPICS FOR PRIORITY CCSP SYNTHESISPRODUCTS SIGNIFICANCE COMPLETION

Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—steps for understanding and reconciling differences.

Inconsistencies in the temperature profiles of different data setsreduce confidence in understanding of how and why climate haschanged.

within 2 years

Past climate variability and change in theArctic and at high latitudes.

High latitudes are especially sensitive and may provide early indi-cations of climate change; new paleoclimate data will provide long-term context for recent observed temperature increases.

within 2 years

Reanalyses of historical climate data for keyatmospheric features. Implications for attribu-tion of causes of observed change.

Understanding the magnitude of past climate variations is key toincreasing confidence in the understanding of how and why climatehas changed and why it may change in the future.

2-4 years

The CCSP has adopted five overarching scientificgoals. By developing information responsive to thesegoals, the program will ensure that it addresses themost important climate-related issues. For each of thegoals, the CCSP will prepare information resources

that support climate-related discussions and decisions.These will include scientific synthesis and assessmentanalyses that support evaluation of important policyissues. A table for each goal identifies the initial topicsto be addressed by these products.

CCSP Goals

Climate conditions changesignificantly over the span of seasons, years, decades,and even longer time scales. CCSP research willimprove useful understanding of natural climate cycleson timescales from seasons to centuries. Research willinclude improving forecasts of the El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO)—a large-scale climate cycle (ofapproximately 2-year duration) with implications forresource management—as well as other natural cli-mate cycles.The program also will expand observa-tions, monitoring, and data/information system capa-bilities and increase confidence in our understanding ofhow and why climate is changing. Fostering the transi-tion of research observations to long-term operationalmeasurements and activities will be important.

Specific research foci addressing this goal are:• Better understand the natural long-term cycles in

climate (e.g., Pacific Decadal Variability, NorthAtlantic Oscillation)

• Improve and harness the capability to forecast ElNiño-La Niña events and other seasonal to interannual cycles of variability

• Sharpen understanding of climate extremes throughimproved observations, analyses, and modeling, anddetermine whether any changes in their frequency orintensity lie outside the range of natural variability

• Increase confidence in the understanding of how andwhy climate has changed

• Expand observations and data/information systemcapabilities.

Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including its

natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

GOAL 1

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Combustion of fossil fuels,changes in land cover andland use, and industrial activ-

ities produce greenhouse gases, aerosols, and aerosolprecursors that alter the composition of the atmos-phere and important physical and biological propertiesof the Earth’s surface.These changes have severalimportant climate effects, some of which can be quan-tified only poorly at present.

Research conducted through the CCSP will reduceuncertainty about the sources and sinks of greenhousegases and aerosols. It also will reduce the uncertaintyregarding climate interactions with ozone in the upperand lower layers of the atmosphere, movement ofchemicals and particles in the atmosphere, and regional-scale air quality. Research will improve quan-tification of the interactions among the carbon cycle,other biological and ecological processes, and landcover and land use to better project atmospheric con-centrations of greenhouse gases and support improveddecisionmaking.The program also will improve capa-bilities for developing and analyzing emissions scenar-ios, in cooperation with the Climate ChangeTechnology Program.

Five research foci support this goal:• Reduce uncertainty about the sources and sinks of

greenhouse gases, emissions of aerosols and their pre-cursors, and their climate effects

• Monitor recovery of the ozone layer and improveunderstanding of the interactions among climatechange, ozone depletion, and other atmosphericprocesses

• Increase knowledge of the interactions among pollu-tant emissions, long-range atmospheric transport, cli-mate change, and air quality management

• Develop information on the carbon cycle, land coverand use, and biological/ecological processes by help-ing to quantify net emissions of carbon dioxide,methane, and other greenhouse gases, therebyimproving the evaluation of carbon sequestrationstrategies and alternative response options

• Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissionsand related scenarios for conducting “If…, then…”analyses in cooperation with the CCTP.

Improve quantification of the forces bringing aboutchanges in the Earth’s climate and related systems.

GOAL 2


Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissionsand concentrations, in collaboration with theCCTP. Review of integrated scenario develop-ment and application.

Sound, comprehensive emissions scenarios are essential forcomparative analysis of how climate may change in the future,as well as for analyses of mitigation and adaptation options.

within 2 years

North American carbon budget and implications forthe global carbon cycle.

The buildup of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere and the frac-tion of carbon being taken up by North America’s ecosystems andcoastal oceans are key factors in estimating future climate change.

within 2 years

Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate.There is a high level of uncertainty about how climate may beaffected by different types of aerosols, both warming and cooling,and thus how climate change might be affected by their control.

2-4 years

Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances,ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultravioletradiation exposure and climate change.

This information is key to ensuring that international agreements tophase out production of ozone-depleting substances are havingthe expected outcome (recovery of the protective ozone layer).

2-4 years

While much is known aboutthe mechanisms that affectthe response of the climate

system to changes in natural and human influences,significant uncertainty exists as to how much climatewill change overall and how it will change in specificregions.

A primary CCSP objective is the development of theinformation and scientific capacity needed to sharpenqualitative and quantitative understanding throughinterconnected observations, data assimilation, andmodeling activities. Comprehensive climate systemmodels integrate scientific understanding of the many components of the climate system and, thus, arethe principal tools available for making quantitativeprojections.

CCSP-supported research will address not only basicclimate system properties and interactions, but also anumber of “feedbacks,” or secondary changes that caneither reinforce or dampen the initial effects of green-house gas and aerosol emissions or changes in land useand land cover.The program also will address thepotential for changes in the frequency and intensity ofextreme events, and will seek to reduce uncertaintyregarding potential rapid or discontinuous changes in

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climate.The CCSP will build on existing U.S.strengths in climate research and modeling and willhelp develop “high-end” models that couple the climatewith other important physical and biological compo-nents of the Earth system.

Research from the program will be integrated to focuson each of these areas:• Improve characterization of the circulation of the

atmosphere and oceans and their interactionsthrough fluxes of energy and materials

• Improve understanding of key “feedbacks”including changes in the amount and distribution of water vapor, extent of ice and the Earth’s reflectivity, cloud properties, and biological andecological systems

• Increase understanding of the conditions that couldgive rise to events such as rapid changes in oceancirculation owing to changes in temperature andsalinity gradients

• Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge ofclimate processes and feedbacks into climate mod-els to reduce uncertainty about climate sensitivity(i.e., response to radiative forcing), projected cli-mate changes, and other related conditions

• Improve national capacity to develop and apply cli-mate models.


Climate models and their uses and limitations, includ-ing sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis.

Clarifying the uses and limitations of climate models at differ-ent spatial and temporal scales will contribute to appropriateapplication of these results.

within 2 years

Climate projections for research and assessmentbased on emissions scenarios developed through theCCTP.

Production of these projections will help develop modelingcapacity and will provide important inputs to comparativeanalysis of response options.

2-4 years

Climate extremes including documentation of currentextremes. Prospects for improving projections.

Extreme events have important implications for naturalresources, property, infrastructure, and public safety. 2-4 years

Risks of abrupt changes in global climate.Abrupt changes have occurred in the past and thus it is impor-tant to evaluate what we know about the potential for abruptchange in the future.

2-4 years

Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’sclimate and related systems may change in the future.

GOAL 3

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Seasonal to interannual vari-ability in climate has been

connected to impacts on almost every aspect of humanlife. Long time scale natural climate cycles and human-induced changes in climate may have additional effects.Improving the ability to assess potential implications ofvariations and future changes in climate and environ-mental conditions could enable governments, business-es, and communities to reduce potential negativeimpacts and to take advantage of opportunities byadapting infrastructure, activities, and plans.

CCSP research will examine the potential for multipleinteracting effects (e.g., the carbon dioxide “fertiliza-tion effect,” deposition of nitrogen and other nutrients,landscape changes that affect water resources and habi-tats, changes in frequency of fires or pests) in order toimprove knowledge of sensitivity and adaptability toclimate variability and change. CCSP research also will

improve methods to advance our understanding ofthe potential effects of different atmospheric con-centrations of greenhouse gases and to developmethods for comparing the potential impacts acrossdifferent sectors.

Research focus areas are:• Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems

and economic sectors to global climate variabilityand change

• Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluatingadaptation options, in cooperation with mission-oriented agencies and other resource managers

• Improve understanding of how changes in ecosys-tems (including managed ecosystems such as crop-lands) and human infrastructure interact over longperiods of time.


Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise. Evaluation of how well equipped society is to cope with potential sealevel rise can help reduce vulnerability. within 2 years

State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change thatcould lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) insome ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources.

This approach seeks to determine how much climate change naturalenvironments and resources can withstand before being adverselyaffected.

2-4 years

Relationship between observed ecosystemchanges and climate change.

Earlier blossoming times, longer growing seasons, and otherchanges are being observed, and this report will explore what isknown about why these events are happening.

2-4 years

Preliminary review of adaptation options for cli-mate-sensitive ecosystems and resources.

Understanding of adaptation options can support improved resourcemanagement—whether change results from natural or human caus-es—and thus helps realize opportunities or reduce negative impacts.

2-4 years

Scenario-based analysis of the climatological,environmental, resource, technological, and eco-nomic implications of different atmospheric con-centrations of greenhouse gases.

Knowing how well we can differentiate the impacts of differentgreenhouse gas concentrations is important in determining therange of appropriate response policies.

2-4 years

State-of-the-science of socioeconomic and envi-ronmental impacts of climate variability.

This product will help improve application of evolving ENSO fore-casts by synthesizing information on impacts, both positive and neg-ative, of variability.

2-4 years

Within the transportation sector, a summary of cli-mate change and variability sensitivities, potentialimpacts, and response options.

Safety and efficiency of transportation infrastructure—much of whichhas a long lifetime—may be increased through planning that takesaccount of sensitivities to climate variability and change.

2-4 years

Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of differentnatural and managed ecosystems and human systems

to climate and related global changes.

GOAL 4

Over the last decade, the sci-entific and technical commu-

nity has developed a variety of products to supportmanagement of risks and opportunities related to cli-mate variability and change.These products haveevoked much commentary, both positive and negative.The CCSP will encourage evaluation and learning fromthese experiences in order to structure decision sup-port processes and products that use scientific knowl-edge to the best effect, while respecting and disclosingthe limits of this knowledge.

The CCSP will develop resources (e.g., observations,databases, data and model products, scenarios, visuali-zation products, scientific syntheses, and assessments)to support policies, planning, and adaptive manage-ment. In coordination with the CCTP, the CCSP alsowill develop and apply frameworks and methods tointegrate the complex array of research on humanactivities, technology, emissions, land-use and land-cover change, nutrient cycles, climatic feedbacks andresponses, and potential impacts on ecosystems,resources, and the economy.

Research to explore the uses and identify the limits ofevolving knowledge will focus on the following areas:• Support informed public discussion of issues of par-

ticular importance to U.S. decisions by conductingresearch and providing scientific synthesis andassessment reports

• Support adaptive management and planning forresources and physical infrastructure affected by cli-mate variability and change; build new partnershipswith public and private sector entities that can ben-efit both research and decisions

• Support policymaking by conducting comparativeanalyses and evaluations of the socioeconomic andenvironmental consequences of response options.


Uses and limitations of observations, data, fore-casts, and other projections in decision support forselected sectors and regions.

There is a great need for regional climate information; furtherevaluation of the reliability of current information is crucial indeveloping new applications.

within 2 years

Best-practice approaches to characterize, communi-cate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking.

Improvements in how scientific uncertainty is evaluated andcommunicated can help reduce misunderstanding and mis-use of this information.

within 2 years

Decision support experiments and evaluations usingseasonal to interannual forecasts and observationaldata.

Climate variability is an important factor in resource planningand management; improved application of forecasts and datacan benefit society.

within 2 years

Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolvingknowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to

climate variability and change.

GOAL 5

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Land cover refers to everythingcovering the land surface,including vegetation, bare soil,buildings and infrastructure,inland bodies of water, and wet-lands. Land use refers to societalarrangements and activities thataffect land cover. Land cover anduse influence climate and weath-er at local to global scales; theycan have direct impacts on cli-mate by affecting the composi-tion of the atmosphere and theexchange of energy betweencontinents and the atmosphere.Because of this, land-cover char-acteristics are key inputs to cli-mate models. Land cover anduse also affect water runoff, thecarbon and nitrogen cycles, andthe distribution of plants andanimals in ecosystems.

CCSP-supported research onland-use/land-cover changefocuses on processes that deter-mine changes in land cover andland use at local, regional, andglobal scales; and on how landcover and use will change overtimescales of 10-50 years.Research will quantify thehuman influences on the land;improve monitoring, measuring,and mapping; and develop projections of changes in landcover and land use based on

assumptions about climate,demographic, economic, andtechnological trends.

Benefits from this researchinclude:• Identifying areas of rapid

land-use and land-coverchange and the extent andimpact of major disturbancessuch as fire, insects, drought,and flooding on land use andland cover

• Identifying past and project-ed trends in land cover or

land use that are attributableto changes in climate (e.g.,changes in forest types, forestmargins, agriculture, anddesert margins), and identify-ing U.S. regions where cli-mate change may have thegreatest implications for landmanagement

• Identifying the effects of landuse and land cover on carbondynamics and the mitigationand management of green-house gases.

Deforestation near Rio Branco, Brazil. Systematic cutting of the forest vegetationstarts along roads and then fans out to create the “fishbone” pattern evident in thisimage. A plume of smoke also is visible. The photo, taken on 28 July 2000 by the satellite-based Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer’s (MISR) vertical-viewing (nadir)camera, covers an area of 336 x 333 kilometers (207 x 209 miles). Source: NASA.


Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

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The CCSP will employ four core approaches inworking toward its goals.

1. Scientific Research

Plan, Sponsor, and Conduct Research onChanges in Climate and Related Systems

The greatest percentage of future CCSP budgetswill be devoted to continuing this essential invest-ment in scientific knowledge, facilitating the dis-covery of the unexpected, and advancing the fron-tiers of research.The CCSP participating agencieswill coordinate their work through seven“research elements” that focus on features thatmake the Earth unique (see Research Elementdescriptions in text boxes throughout the VisionDocument for more information).These featuresinclude diverse forms of carbon-based life, waterin multiple interacting phases, an oxidizing andprotective atmosphere, and a climate system thatredistributes energy to make a habitable planet.The seven research elements have evolved fromthe framework for research presented in GlobalEnvironmental Change: Research Pathways for the NextDecade, a report from the National ResearchCouncil that lays out advances in knowledge need-ed to improve predictive capability in Earth sys-tems science:

• Atmospheric Composition: How the com-position of the global atmosphere is altered byhuman activities and natural phenomena, andhow such changes influence climate, ozone,ultraviolet radiation, pollutant exposure,ecosystems, and human health

• Climate Variability and Change: How cli-mate elements that are particularly importantto human and natural systems – especially tem-perature, precipitation, clouds, winds, andstorminess – are affected by natural processesand human activities

• Global Water Cycle: How natural processesand humans influence the distribution and qual-ity of water, whether changes are predictable,and how variability and change in the watercycle may affect human and natural systems

• Land-Use/Land-Cover Change: Howchanges in land use and land cover interactwith atmospheric composition, the globalwater cycle, biogeochemistry, ecosystems, cli-mate, and socioeconomic factors, and theextent to which land-use and land-coverchange are predictable

• Global Carbon Cycle: A focus on identifyingthe size and variability of, and potential futurechanges to, the Earth’s reservoirs and fluxes ofcarbon, and providing the scientific underpin-ning for evaluating carbon sequestration oppor-tunities and alternative response options

• Ecosystems: How natural and human-inducedchanges in the environment interact to affectthe structure, functioning, and services ofecosystems, and what options society may haveto ensure that desirable ecosystem goods andservices will be sustained or enhanced

• Human Contributions and Responses:How human activities interact to drive changesin the climate system, land use, and related sys-tems, and how humans prepare for and respondto these changes.

In its sponsorship and conduct of research, theCCSP will establish a balance between focus andbreadth by involving both decisionmakers and thescience community.The program also will encour-age integration among research elements to facili-tate progress on research topics that span theseresearch areas.This also will help develop knowl-edge of the evolution of the integrated Earth sys-tem, which is strongly affected by numerous inter-actions among its components at multiple scales.The CCSP will integrate activities such as model-ing, observations, and data management in its

Core Approaches

Carbon is important as one ofthe building blocks for the foodand fiber that sustain humanpopulations, as the primaryenergy source fuelingeconomies, and as a major con-tributor to the greenhouse effectand climate change. Carbondioxide and methane concen-trations have been increasing inthe atmosphere, primarily as aresult of human use of fossilfuels and land.

CCSP-supported research on theglobal carbon cycle focuses onidentifying potential futurechanges to atmospheric, terres-trial, and oceanic storage of car-bon, and movement of carbonamong those pools.The programalso provides the scientificunderpinning for managing car-bon sources and sinks. Specificprograms and projects focus onNorth American and oceaniccarbon sources and sinks; theimpact of land-use change andresource management practiceson carbon sources and sinks;projecting future atmosphericcarbon dioxide and methaneconcentrations and changes inland-based and marine carbonsinks; and the global distributionof carbon sources and sinks andhow they are changing.

Benefits from this researchinclude:• Increased understanding of the

sources and sinks for carbon,helping to evaluate carbonsequestration strategies and

alternative response options • Improved confidence in pro-

jections of atmospheric con-centrations of carbon-basedgreenhouse gases.

Monitoring Carbon Flows. Scientists near Pt. Barrow, Alaska, check instruments thatmeasure fluxes of carbon to and from the atmosphere. Source: Gary Braasch.

Global Carbon Cycle


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research activities.The program will also encour-age integration between and among agencies thatconduct its scientific programs and supportingactivities.

Scientific progress depends on models, which areessential tools for synthesizing observations, theo-ry, and experimental results to investigate how theEarth system works and how it may be affected byhuman activities.The CCSP will improve the sci-entific basis of climate and climate impact models,improve modeling infrastructure and capacity, andcoordinate and accelerate the use of models toprovide information for decisions.

2. Observations

Enhance Observations and DataManagement Systems to Generate aComprehensive Set of Variables Needed for Climate-Related Research

Since the early years of the USGCRP, an expandedprogram of global observations has been devel-oped to characterize climate variability and changeon a global and regional basis.These observationshave included paleoclimatic records spanningthousands of years, satellite remote-sensing sys-tems covering the entire globe, and numerous insitu observations on land (including the polarregions), in the atmosphere, and throughout theocean.The suite of available observations includeslong-term observations associated with NOAA’ssatellite monitoring program and global weatherobservations, which have not historically beenconsidered as part of the USGCRP; several long-term surface-based measurement networks oper-ated by NASA, NOAA, DOE, and other agencies;and several long-running NASA research satellitesand series of satellites, as well as a large numberof limited-duration measurements obtained duringresearch campaigns.

Prior and current investments in new observa-tions, as they come to fruition, will significantlyenhance knowledge of environmental variables in

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the coming years. But there is also a need forenhanced global and regional integration of obser-vation and data management systems, especially tohelp generate new and improved products for sup-porting decisions.The CCSP will expand thecapacity to prioritize, ensure the quality of,archive, and disseminate (in useful format) thelarge quantity of available observations.

The CCSP will develop new requirements forobservation systems to support integrated evalua-tion of climate and ecosystem parameters.Improved observation systems will addressadditional research issues, including those hav-ing to do with ecosystems, with changes in landuse or land cover, and with feedbacks amongclimate variables.

In implementing its observing strategy, the CCSPwill adhere to NRC climate monitoring princi-ples, as well as to the Global Climate ObservingSystem (GCOS) climate monitoring principles forsatellites.The program will also seek to fostercloser integration of – and cooperation among –research and operational activities and programs.The CCSP will improve strategies for the transi-tion of observational systems originally developedfor research to an operational setting in order tocarry out long-term monitoring and data collec-tion.The program will benefit from, and con-tribute to, the design and operational implementa-tion of a new international Earth Observationprogram.The program, initiated at a meetinghosted by the U.S. Government in July 2003, willbe developed over the next 10 years.

3. Decision Support

Develop Improved Science-BasedResources to Aid Decisionmaking

The available scientific record has been used formany years to address a range of questions, fromdetecting climate change and attributing it to par-ticular causes, to utilizing satellite and ground-based observations and related analyses in

Ecosystems shape our societiesand nations by providing essen-tial renewable resources andother benefits including food,fiber, timber, energy, biodiversi-ty, clean air and water, and non-material (e.g., aesthetic) values.Their capacity to provide suchbenefits is affected by climatevariability and change, and byhuman influences. Improvingprojections of future climateand global changes depends onimproved understanding ofecosystem processes under multiple natural and humaninfluences.

Research on ecosystems con-ducted and supported byFederal agencies under theCCSP focuses on how naturaland human-induced changes inthe environment interact toaffect the structure, functioning,and services of ecosystems –including those ecosystemprocesses that in turn influenceregional and global environmen-tal changes. Research also focus-es on what options society mayhave to ensure that ecosystemgoods and services are sustainedor enhanced. Specific focusareas include key processes thatlink ecosystems with climate;consequences of global changefor ecosystems at different

scales; and options for managingagricultural lands, forests, andother ecosystems.

Benefits from this researchinclude:• Quantification of important

feedbacks from ecological sys-tems to climate and atmos-pheric composition toimprove the accuracy of cli-mate projections

• Updated information on the

sensitivity and adaptability ofkey ecosystems to climatevariability and change, includ-ing the potential for abruptchange

• Comprehensive indicators ofecosystem change and health

• Information to support man-agement decisions for agricul-tural lands, forests, fisheries,and other ecosystems underconditions of environmentalchange.

Elevated CO2 Concentration Experiment. The Smithsonian Environmental ResearchCenter (SERC) is conducting a series of innovative experiments that expose portions ofsalt marsh and forest ecosystems to elevated CO2 concentrations in outdoor chambers.Source: Smithsonian Environmental Research Center.

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resource management applications.The CCSP willimprove interactions with stakeholders and devel-op resources to support public discussion andplanning, adaptive management, and policymak-ing. It also will encourage development of newmethods, models, and other resources that facili-tate economic analysis, decisionmaking under con-ditions of uncertainty, and integration and inter-pretation of information from the natural andsocial sciences in particular decision contexts.

Evaluation and communication of uncertainty andlevels of confidence is crucial to supporting deci-sions. CCSP research will address fundamentaluncertainties. However, uncertainty can never becompletely eliminated, and thus it is also impor-tant to develop approaches for using scientificinformation in decisions made when there aresubstantial uncertainties.This will help decision-makers understand the uses and limits of the avail-able information.The CCSP will develop andemploy transparent and systematic approaches fordecision support, and will evaluate, quantify, andreport levels of confidence and uncertainty.

4. Communications

Communicate Results to Domestic andInternational Scientific and StakeholderCommunities, Stressing Openness andTransparency

Global climate change is complex and often sub-ject to disputed interpretations even among scien-tists. Because of the unique, large commitment ofpublic resources to CCSP activities, the CCSP hasa responsibility to communicate with interestedpartners in the United States and throughout theworld, and to learn from these partners on a con-tinuing basis. As an essential part of its mission,the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibilityof enhancing the quality of public discussion bystressing openness and transparency in its findingsand reports.

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The CCSP will employ four methods to ensurethe trustworthiness of its reported findings:

• Use of structured analyses (usually question-based) for CCSP scientific synthesis, assess-ment, and projection reports

• Use of transparent methodologies that openlyreport all key assumptions, methods, data, anduncertainties

• Continuous use of web-based and other formsof information dissemination so that CCSPinformation is freely available to all interestedusers

• Frequent use of “draft for comment” methodsto seek external review before completion ofeach key document.

The CCSP also will continue to urge all of itssponsored researchers to seek publication of theirfindings in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

Each of these approaches is essential for achievingthe CCSP’s goals. Scientific Research andObservations will rely heavily on existing pro-grams and mechanisms, as well as integration ofcapabilities developed outside the prior globalchange research framework. Decision Support andCommunications will require the development ofnew capabilities and initiatives during the comingyears, as well as interactions with otherCommittee on Environment and NaturalResources and National Science and TechnologyCouncil committees.

Human activities are an impor-tant influence on the globalenvironment. Human respons-es, through adaptation and miti-gation, will strongly influencethe social impacts (both positiveand negative) of global environ-mental changes.

CCSP-supported research onhuman contributions andresponses to global changefocuses on the interactions ofchanges in the global environ-ment and human activities.Thecurrent focus of this research ison the extent of human influ-ences on the climate system,land use, and on other globalenvironmental changes; analysesof societal sensitivity and adapt-ability to global environmentalchange; decisionmaking underconditions of significant com-plexity and uncertainty; meth-ods for integrating informationon climate change and potentialresponse options; and thepotential effects of climate vari-ability and change on humanhealth and welfare.

Benefits from these researchefforts include:• Scenarios strengthened by an

improved understanding ofthe interdependence amongeconomics, population

growth, energy consumption,advancements in technolo-gies, and emissions

• Adaptation strategies toeffectively manage theimpacts of seasonal and year-to-year climate variabilitysuch as El Niño events

• Elevation maps depictingareas vulnerable to sea levelrise and planning mapsdepicting how state and localgovernments plan to respondto sea level rise

• Strategies for communicatingclimate-related informationto resource managers (e.g.,farmers, forest landowners,drought policy planners,water utilities) and urbanplanners at local to nationallevels

• Assessments of the potentialconsequences of globalchange for human health inthe United States.

The Human Influence. Mahantango Creek watershed near Klingerstown, Pennsylvania.Human activities play an important part in many natural systems and are forces forchange in the environment at local, regional, and even global scales.

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CCSP Organization and Management

The CCSP integrates research on global changeand climate change sponsored by its participatingagencies and departments. By leveraging thecomplementary strengths of these agencies anddepartments, the CCSP facilitates research andapplications that would otherwise fall beyond thecapabilities of any individual participating agency.The President created the CCSP in February2002 as part of a new cabinet-level managementstructure to oversee public investments in cli-mate change science and technology.The newstructure also includes the CCTP, which isresponsible for accelerating climate change-related technology research and development.

The CCSP approach to management integratesthe planning and implementation of the individ-ual climate and global change research programsof the participating federal departments andagencies to reduce overlaps, identify and fill pro-grammatic gaps, and add integrative value toproducts and deliverables produced under theCCSP’s auspices.

Five mechanisms are used to achieve this man-agement approach:• Executive direction by the cabinet-based man-

agement structure, including priority setting,management review, and accountability

• Program implementation by CCSP participat-ing agencies

• Coordinated planning and program imple-mentation through interagency workinggroups

• External interactions for guidance, evaluation,and feedback

• Coordination and management support froman interagency office accountable to theCCSP interagency governing committee.

Interactions among those responsible for thesefive management elements are critical forimproving the scientific planning, the effective-ness of interagency management, and the focusof climate and global change research to supportgovernmental and non-governmental needs.

About the CCSP Strategic Plan

This Vision Document provides an overview ofthe CCSP Strategic Plan.The plan describes astrategy for developing knowledge of variabilityand change in climate and related environmentaland human systems, and for encouraging theapplication of this knowledge.The strategy seeksto optimize the benefits of research that is con-ducted, sponsored, or applied by 13 agencies and

departments of the U.S. Government.The strat-egy describes in greater detail the goals of theCCSP and its component programs, the productsthat are expected to result, and the approachesand criteria that will be adopted to implementthe program.The table of contents of the Plan isreproduced as Appendix A.

Appendix A

Table of Contents for the CCSPStrategic Plan

Chapter 1. IntroductionChapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change

ResearchChapter 3. Atmospheric Composition Chapter 4. Climate Variability and ChangeChapter 5.Water Cycle Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle Chapter 8. Ecosystems Chapter 9. Human Contributions and Responses to

Environmental Change Chapter 10. Modeling StrategyChapter 11. Decision Support Resources DevelopmentChapter 12. Observing and Monitoring the Climate

SystemChapter 13. Data Management and InformationChapter 14. Communications Chapter 15. International Research and Cooperation Chapter 16. Program Management and ReviewAnnexesA. Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop ParticipantsB. ReferencesC. Graphics and Photography Source InformationD. GlossaryE. Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Units

The full text of the CCSP Strategic Plan is available at<http://www.climatescience.gov/>.

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Appendix B

Principal Areas of Focus for theCCSP Agencies

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA)USDA-sponsored research supports long-term studies toimprove our understanding of the roles that terrestrial sys-tems play in influencing climate change, and the potentialeffects of global change (including water balance, atmosphericdeposition, vegetative quality, and ultraviolet-B radiation) onfood, fiber, and forestry production in agricultural, forest,and range ecosystems. USDA’s research program is strength-ening efforts to determine the significance of terrestrial sys-tems in the global carbon cycle, and to identify agriculturaland forestry activities that can contribute to a reduction ingreenhouse gas concentrations. USDA’s research agencies willsupport the Department in responding to the President’sdirective to develop accounting rules and guidelines for car-bon sequestration projects. Contributions from USDA’sresearch program include the development of improved emis-sion and sequestration coefficients, new tools for accuratelymeasuring carbon and other greenhouse gases, and the devel-opment of improved sequestration methodologies.

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (DOC)The DOC’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation(NOAA) mission is: “To understand and predict changes inthe Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the nation’s economic, social,and environmental needs.The long-term global changeefforts of NOAA are designed to develop a predictive under-standing of variability and change in the global climate system, and to advance the application of this information inclimate-sensitive sectors through a suite of process research,observations and modeling, and application and assessmentactivities. Specifically, NOAA’s research program includesongoing efforts in operational in situ and satellite observationswith an emphasis on oceanic and atmospheric dynamics,circulation, and chemistry; understanding and predictingocean-land-atmosphere interactions, the global water cycle,and the role of global transfers of carbon dioxide among theatmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in climatechange; improvements in climate modeling, prediction, andinformation management capabilities; the projection andassessment of variability across multiple time scales; the studyof the relationship between the natural climate system andsociety and the development of methodologies for applyingclimate information to problems of social and economic con-sequences; and archiving, managing, and disseminating dataand information useful for global change research. DOC’sNational Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) pro-vides measurements and standards that support accurate and

reliable climate observations. NIST also performs calibrationsand special tests of a wide range of instruments and measure-ment techniques for accurate measurements. NIST provides a wide array of data and modeling tools that provide key support to developers and users of complex climate predic-tion models.

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DOD)The Department of Defense does not support dedicated glob-al change research, but continues a history of participation inthe CCSP through sponsored research that concurrently satis-fies national security requirements and stated goals of theCCSP. All data and research results are routinely made avail-able to the civil science community. DOD science and tech-nology investments are coordinated and reviewed through theDefense Reliance process and published annually in theDefense Science and Technology Strategy, the Basic ResearchPlan, the Defense Technology Area Research Plan, and theJoint Warfighting Science and Technology Plan.

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (DOE)Research supported by DOE’s Office of Biological andEnvironmental Research (BER) is focused on the effects ofenergy production and use on the global Earth system, prima-rily through studies of climate response. Research includesclimate modeling, aerosol and cloud properties and processesaffecting the Earth’s radiation balance, and sources and sinksof energy-related greenhouse gases (primarily carbon diox-ide). It also includes research on the consequences of climaticand atmospheric changes for ecological systems andresources, the development of improved methods and modelsfor conducting integrated economic and environmentalassessments of climate change and of options for mitigatingclimate change, and education and training of scientists forclimate change research.

DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES(HHS)Four National Institutes of Health (NIH) institutes supportresearch on the health effects of ultraviolet (UV) and near-UV radiation.Their principal objectives include an increasedunderstanding of the effects of UV and near-UV radiationexposure on target organs (e.g., eyes, skin, immune system)and of the molecular changes that lead to these effects, andthe development of strategies to prevent the initiation or pro-motion of disease before it is clinically defined. In addition,the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences(NIEHS) supports research on the health effects of chloroflu-orocarbon replacement chemicals, including studies on themetabolism and toxicity of hydrofluorocarbons and halo-genated hydrocarbons. HHS (NIH and the Centers forDisease Control and Prevention) also conducts research related to other impacts of global change on human health,including renewed concern about infectious diseases whose

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incidence could be affected by environmental change. In addi-tion, NIH sponsors a program to assess the impact of popula-tion change on the physical environment and to account foreffects of the physical environment on population change.

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (DOI)Research at DOI’s U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) con-tributes directly to the CCSP’s intellectual framework of awhole-system understanding of global change (i.e., the inter-relationships among climate, ecological systems, and humanbehavior).The USGS examines terrestrial and marineprocesses and the natural history of global change, includingthe interactions between climate and the hydrologic system.Studies seek to understand the character of past and presentenvironments and the geological, biological, hydrological, andgeochemical processes involved in environmental change.TheUSGS supports a broad area of global change research, with afocus on understanding the sensitivity of natural systems andimpacts of climate change and variability, surficial processes,and other global change phenomena on the nation’s lands andenvironments at the regional scale. Specific goals of the pro-gram are: to improve the utility of global change researchresults to land management agencies; to emphasize monitor-ing the landscape and developing technical approaches toidentifying and analyzing changes that will take advantage of aburgeoning archive of remotely sensed and in situ data; and toemphasize the response of biogeographic regions and fea-tures, particularly montane, coastal, and inland wetlandecosystems.

DEPARTMENT OF STATE (DOS)Through DOS annual funding, the United States is theworld’s leading financial contributor to the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change and to theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a major organization for the assessment of scientific, technical, andsocioeconomic information relevant to the understanding ofclimate change, its potential impacts, and options for adapta-tion and mitigation. Recent DOS contributions to the IPCCprovide substantial support for the Global Climate ObservingSystem, among other activities.

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (DOT)DOT utilizes existing science to improve decisionmakingtools in three primary areas: (1) impact of climate variabilityand change on transportation (research to examine the effectsthat climate change and variability may have on transportationinfrastructure and services, and to identify potential adapta-tion strategies for use by transportation decisionmakers,operators, state and local planners, and infrastructurebuilders); (2) increasing energy efficiency and reducinggreenhouse gases (research on reducing energy use will covermitigation of transportation’s environmental impacts both

through conservation and through the application of newtechnology); and (3) modeling (research to develop andimprove analytical tools for transportation energy use to sup-port decisionmaking throughout government and in the pri-vate sector).

AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT(USAID)USAID provides decisionmakers with the information toeffectively respond to drought and food insecurity throughthe Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET).FEWS NET analyzes remote-sensing data and ground-basedmeteorological, crop, and rangeland observations to trackprogress of rainy seasons in semi-arid regions of Africa inorder to identify early indications of potential famine.

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (EPA)EPA’s Global Change Research Program is an assessment-oriented program with primary emphasis on understandingthe potential consequences of climate variability and changeon human health, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems inthe United States.This entails: (1) improving the scientificbasis for evaluating effects of global change on air quality,water quality, ecosystems, and human health in the context ofother stressors and in light of human dimensions (as humansare catalysts of and respond to global change); (2) conductingassessments of the risks and opportunities presented by globalchange; and (3) assessing adaptation options to increaseresiliency to change and improve society’s ability to effective-ly respond to the risks and opportunities presented by globalchange. EPA’s program emphasizes the integration of the con-cepts, methods, and results of the physical, biological, andsocial sciences into decision support frameworks.

NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACEADMINISTRATION (NASA)The mission of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise is to under-stand and protect our home planet by using our view fromspace to study the Earth system and improve prediction ofEarth system change. NASA programs are aimed at under-standing the Earth system and applying Earth system scienceto improve prediction of climate, weather and natural hazardsin partnership with other Federal agencies and internationalspace and research programs. Its Research Strategy orches-trates observing and modeling programs to address theseessential questions:• How is the Earth changing, and what are the consequences

for life on Earth?• How is the global Earth system changing?• What are the primary causes of change in the Earth

system?• How does the Earth system respond to natural and

human-induced change?

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• What are the consequences of change in the Earth systemfor human civilization?

• How well can we predict future changes in the Earth system?

NASA’s portfolio includes observations, research, analysis,modeling, and advanced technology development, in order toanswer selected science questions, and benchmarking decisionsupport resources to ensure society receives the benefits ofthis research.

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (NSF)NSF programs address global change issues through invest-ments in challenging ideas, creative people, and effectivetools. In particular, NSF global change research programssupport research and related activities to advance the funda-mental understanding of physical, chemical, biological, andhuman systems and the interactions among them.The pro-grams encourage interdisciplinary activities and focus particu-larly on Earth system processes and the consequences ofchange. NSF programs facilitate data acquisition and informa-tion management activities necessary for fundamentalresearch on global change, and promote the enhancement ofmodels designed to improve understanding of Earth systemprocesses and interactions and to develop advanced analyticmethods to facilitate basic research. NSF also supports funda-mental research on the general processes used by organiza-tions to identify and evaluate policies for mitigation, adapta-tion, and other responses to the challenge of varying environ-mental conditions.

SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTIONWithin the Smithsonian Institution, global change research isconducted at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, theNational Air and Space Museum, the SmithsonianEnvironmental Research Center, the National Museum ofNatural History, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,and the National Zoological Park. Research is organizedaround themes of atmospheric processes, ecosystem dynam-ics, observing natural and anthropogenic environmentalchange on daily to decadal time scales, and defining longerterm climate proxies present in the historical artifacts andrecords of the museums as well as in the geologic record atfield sites.The Smithsonian Institution program strives toimprove knowledge of the natural processes involved in glob-al climate change, provide a long-term repository of climate-relevant research materials for present and future studies, andto bring this knowledge to various audiences, ranging fromscholarly to the lay public.The unique contribution of theSmithsonian Institution is a long-term perspective – forexample, undertaking investigations that may require extend-ed study before producing useful results and conductingobservations on sufficiently long (e.g., decadal) time scales toresolve human-caused modification of natural variability.

Appendix C

Key Gaps in the Science ofClimate Change

From the White House document at:<http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/06/

climatechange.pdf>“Advancing the Science of Climate Change”Key Gaps in Science of Climate Change

Despite major investments in climate change science by theUnited States and other nations over the past decade, anddespite major accomplishments by scientists throughout theworld, numerous gaps remain in our understanding of climatechange.The National Academy of Sciences identified in itsreport, Climate Change Science:An Analysis of Some Key Questions(June 2001), critical uncertainties about the science of cli-mate change. Fundamentally, the report indicated the need tobetter understand the causes of warming.The NationalAcademy of Sciences stated, “Greenhouse gases are accumu-lating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities,causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean tem-peratures to rise.Temperatures are, in fact, rising.Thechanges observed over the last several decades are likelymostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out thatsome significant part of these changes is also a reflection ofnatural variability.”

The National Academy of Sciences report goes on to identifya range of specific areas that require additional study andresearch.The following considerations provide importantinformation that will be used in setting priorities:

How much carbon is sequestered by oceans and ter-restrial sinks and how much remains in the atmos-phere is uncertain:• “How land contributes, by location and processes, to

exchanges of carbon with the atmosphere is still highlyuncertain… ” (p. 11)

• “These estimates [of future carbon dioxide climate forc-ings]… are only approximate because of uncertainty abouthow efficiently the ocean and terrestrial biosphere willsequester atmospheric CO2.” (p. 13)

• “How much of the carbon from future use of fossil fuelswill be seen as increases in carbon dioxide in the atmos-phere will depend on what fractions are taken up byland and by the oceans.The exchanges with land occuron various time scales, out to centuries for soildecomposition in high latitudes, and they are sensitiveto climate change.Their projection into the future ishighly problematic.” (p. 18)

The feedbacks in the climate system that determinethe magnitude and rate of temperature increases areuncertain:• “Because there is considerable uncertainty in current

understanding of how the climate system varies naturallyand reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols,current estimates of the magnitude of future warmingshould be regarded as tentative and subject to futureadjustments (either upward or downward).” (p. 1)

• “Much of the difference in predictions of global warmingby various climate models is attributable to the fact thateach model represents these [feedback] processes in itsown particular way.These uncertainties will remain until amore fundamental understanding of the processes thatcontrol atmospheric relative humidity and clouds isachieved.” (p. 4)

The direct and indirect effects of aerosols are uncertain:• “The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forc-

ing—indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties aboutglobal climate forcings—is probably the indirect effect ofaerosols on clouds.” (p. 14)

• “The great uncertainty about this indirect aerosol climateforcing presents a severe handicap both for the interpreta-tion of past climate change and for future assessments ofclimate changes.” (p. 14)

• “Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a largesource of uncertainty about future climate change.” (p. 13)

• “Because of the scientific uncertainties associated with thesources and composition of carbonaceous aerosols, projec-tions of future impacts on climate are difficult.” (p. 12)

The details and impacts of regional climate changeresulting from global climate change are uncertain:• “On the regional scale and in the longer term, there is

much more uncertainty” with respect to effects on agri-culture and forestry. (p. 19)

• “The Northern Hemisphere as a whole experienced aslight cooling from 1946-75, and the cooling during thatperiod was quite marked over the eastern United States.The cause of this hiatus in the warming is still underdebate.” (p. 16)

• “Health outcomes in response to climate change are thesubject of intense debate…The understanding of the rela-tionships between weather/climate and human health is inits infancy and therefore the health consequences of cli-mate change are poorly understood.The costs, benefits,and availability of resources for adaptation are also uncertain.” (p. 20)

• “Changes in storm frequency and intensity are one of the more uncertain elements of future climate change prediction.” (p. 20)

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The nature and causes of the natural variability ofclimate and its interactions with forced changes areuncertain:• “Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural

variability inherent in the climate record and the uncer-tainties in the time histories of the various forcing agents(and particularly aerosols), a causal linkage between thebuildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and theobserved climate changes during the 20th century cannotbe unequivocally established.” (p. 17)

• “The value of indirect effect of ozone changes induced bysolar ultraviolet irradiance variations “remains highlyuncertain.” (p. 14)

The future usage of fossil fuels and the future emissions of methane are uncertain:• “With a better understanding of the sources and sinks of

methane, it may be possible to encourage practices…thatlead to a decrease in atmospheric methane and significant-ly reduce future climate change.” (p. 13)

• “There is no definitive scientific basis for choosingamong several possible explanations for these variationsin the rates of change of global methane contributions,making it very difficult to predict its future atmosphericconcentrations.” (p. 11)

In response to these gaps in our knowledge, the NationalAcademy of Sciences study also recommends, “research thatcouples physical, chemical, biological, and human systems; animproved capability of integrating scientific knowledge,including its uncertainty, into effective decision support sys-tems, and an ability to conduct research at the regional orsectoral level that promotes analysis of the response of humanand natural systems to multiple stresses.”

The NAS report also indicates that to advance the under-standing of climate change, it will be necessary to have “aglobal observing system in support of long-term climatemonitoring and prediction [and] concentration on large-scalemodeling through increased, dedicated supercomputing andhuman resources.” High priority areas for further researchalso are identified in numerous recent reports and docu-ments, such as: Global Environmental Change: Research Pathwaysfor the Next Decade (1999), Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling toSupport Climate Change Assessment Activities (1998), Adequacy ofClimate Observing Systems (1999), and others.

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James R. Mahoney, CCSP Director

Richard H. Moss, CCSPO Director

David M. Allen

Jeff Amthor

Susan K. Avery

James H. Butler

Margarita Conkright Gregg

David J. Dokken [TECHNICAL EDITOR]

Susanna Eden

Genene Fisher

Stephanie A. Harrington

Chester J. Koblinsky

David M. Legler

Sandy MacCracken

Jessica Orrego

Rick S. Piltz

Nicholas A. Sundt

Ahsha N.Tribble

Bud Ward

Robert C.Worrest

To obtain a copy of this document, contact:

Climate Change Science Program Office1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NWSuite 250Washington, DC 20006202-223-6262 (voice)202-223-3065 (fax)[email protected]://www.climatescience.gov/http://www.usgcrp.gov/

The Climate Change Science Programincorporates the U.S. Global ChangeResearch Program and the Climate ChangeResearch Initiative.

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM OFFICE

U.S. Climate Change Science Program1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW • Suite 250 • Washington, D.C. 20006 USA

+1.202.223.6262 (voice) • +1.202.223.3065 (fax)http://www.climatescience.gov/

Documents

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Vision …...change and climate change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government. The CCSP, under the direction