The Vineyard of the Saker_ Memories, Recollections, Guesses and Speculations About MH17

22/07/14 The Vineyard of the Saker: Memories, recollections, guesses and speculations about MH17

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Abird'seyeviewofthevineyard

TheVineyardoftheSaker

F r i d a y , J u l y 1 8 , 2 0 1 4

Memories,recollections,guessesandspeculationsaboutMH17

Introandcaveat

IthinkthatanyanalysisoftheeventssurroundingthedowningofMH17shouldbeginwiththefollowingadmission:nomatterwhat,theAngloZionistswillblameRussia.Justlike9/11,thereisnoway,noamountofevidence,whichwouldaffecttheunanimouschorusofImperialdoubleplusgoodthinkersintheirconclusionthatobviouslyitcouldonlyhavebeen"theRussians".Sodon'texpecttocomeacrossTheProofwhichwillprovethattheEmpireislyingbecauseif9/11provedanythingitisthatevenhard,undeniabletruthcanbeeasilyignoredbytheelitesandtheirmedia.

Second,Ihavetobeginmy"kindofanalysis"withthefollowingdisclaimer:myinformationonairdefenseissuesisabout2530yearsoldwhichmeansthatnotonlycouldmymemoryfailme,butthingsmighthavechangedagreatdealsinceIlastwasexposedtothem.Finally,theplacefromwhichIobservedairdefensehappeningwasaratherpeculiarone:fromaundergroundarmycommandcenter'sairdefenseroomwhichincludedalivefused(civilian+military)imageofalltheairtrafficoveranentirecontinent.InevergotanywherenearaSAMsiteinmylife,andIsurehaveneverseenonebeingoperated.Still,thereareafewthingswhichIknowwhichmightberelevanttothiscase.

IfIgotsomethingwrong,orifthingshaverecentlychanged,PLEASECORRECTME.

Howairdefensenormallyworks

Thecontrolofairspaceisdonebytwocompletelydifferentnetworks:acivilianandamilitaryone.ThecivilianoneistheonepeoplethinkofwhentheyhearATC(airtrafficcontrol).Thesearethefolkswhomanageflightplans,whotalktopilotsondifferentaltitudes,whotracktheaircraftduringtheflightandmakesurethatthereisenoughdistancebetweenthem.Dependingonanairplane'saltitudeandwhatitisdoing,itremainsincontactwithdifferentATCsbuttheyallworktogether.Onemorething:theradarsusedbycivilianATCareveryprimitive,alltheycan"see"isabearing.Whathelpsthemisthatallaircrafthaveasocalled"transponder"totransmitaspecialmessagewhichindicatestheirID,speed,altitudeandcourse.TheATCthensuperimposesthatinfoonhisscreentogetaprettyaccurateideaofwhattheaircraftisdoing.Theimportantthingaboutallthisisthatthemilitaryisnormallypatchedstraightintothatdataandthatitcanuseittosupplementthedatamilitaryradarsacquirebythemselves.Inotherwords,amilitaryairdefensenetwork"sees"and"knows"everythingthataciviliansATCknowsandsees.

ThetaskofmilitaryairdefensesisdramaticallydifferentfromtheciviliansATC:themilitaryexpectstodealwithaircraftwhowilldotheirutmosttoremainundetectedandoncedetected,themilitaryairdefensenetworkhastofigureoutawaytohopefullyshootdowntheenemyaircraft.Asaresult,thekindoftechnologyusedbythe



militaryisverydifferent.

Thefirst"layer"ofamilitaryairdefensenetworkwillbelongrangedetectionradars.Theirtaskistotrytodetectanairbornetargetasfaraspossible.Althoughonetypeofradarcandothisalone,typicallydatafromdifferentradars(includingairborneones)isfusedtocreateasinglepicture.AlreadyatthispointtheairdefensecommandpostwillbepatchedinintotheciviliansATCanditwillhavealltheflightplans,airlinenames,aircrafttypesandexpectedflightroutes.Theairdefensecommandpost'sfirsttaskistoseparatecivilians(consideredneutral)frompossiblehostiles.These99%offlightsareroutineandregular,thefolksinchargehaveaverygoodideaofwhatanormalskylookslike,theyseethescheduledciviliansaircraftdoingtheirthingandtheyeasilytrackthem.Somemilitaryradarsevenhavethecapabilitytodetectthekindofaircrafttheyareseeingontheirradarsimplybyanalyzingtheradarsignalbouncedback(typicallybytheaircraft'sengine).Ifatargetisambiguous,themilitarycanuseaverydifferenttypeofradartotrackthattarget:thistargetacquisitionradarwilloperateonadifferentfrequency,itwillhaveamuchnarrowerbeam,anditwillprovidetheoperatorwithmuchmoreinfoabouttheaircrafteveniftheaircraftdoesnothaveaworkingtransponder(whichwouldbemostunusualforacivilianairliner).Again,modernarmedforceshavethemeanstofusethedatafromanydifferentradartypes(includingairborneradars)tocalculateasolutiontoidentifyandtrackatarget.Thenextstepisthesendaspecialsignal,likeapassword,tocheckifaircraftmightnotbeoneofyourown.Civilianaircraftarenotcapableofthiskindif"electronichandshake".Finally,ifthemilitaryairdefensecommandpostbelievesthatthetargethishostile,itselectsthebestradarandmissilecombinationtoengagethetarget.Typically,thisisdoneyetagainbyahighlyspecializedradarwhichsendsaburstofenergytothetargetwhichisreflectedbytheairbornetargetandwhichisthencaughteitherbyagroundbasedradarorevenbythemissileitself(thatiscalledTVMtrackviamissile)whichthencanguideitselftothetargetwithoutemittinganysignal(alternatively,themissilecanusehisownactiveguidancesystemwhichsendsandreceivesradarsignals).Advancedairdefensenetworks,suchasRussia's,canautomaticallychosethebestradarforeachtask,themissilemostlikelytohit,thenumberofmissilesneededforthetask,themostthreateningtarget,themodeofengagement,etc.Thesesystemsarehighlyintegratedandhighlyautomated,whichalsomeansthattheyaremuchsaferthanmoreprimitivesystems(moreaboutthatlater).Theyarealsohighlyredundantwhichinpracticaltermsmeansthatif,say,inanidealenvironmentamissilesystemliketheBukM1isjustonepartofamuchbiggernetworkofsystems,itcanalsooperatealmostautonomouslyifneeded(again,moreaboutthatlater).Nowweneedtolookatthe"whohadwhat"onthedayofthetragedy.First,let'slookat

TheRussikiesandtheircapabilities.

While,obviously,theydon'tsharewithmethedetailsoftheirmoves,itisaprettysafeguesstosaythat,especiallyconsideringthewargoingonrightacrosstheborder,theRussiansliterallyhaditallonthatday:civiliansradars,ofcourse,butalsolongrangeradars(groundbasedandairborne),lotsofadvancedadvancedsurveillance(longrangedetection)radars,lotsoftrackingandfirecontrolradarsnumerousradioandsignalinterceptionstations.SinceallthedatafromthisintegratednetworkofsystemscouldbefusedatthehigherlevelcommandpostswecansafelyassumethattheRussiansidehadsomethinglike"20/20radarvision":justaboutasgoodasitcanget.ThereisnowaytheRussianshotdownthisaircraftbymistake.

WhatabouttheUkrainians?

Heretherealityisdramaticallydifferent:almostalloftheUkrainianairdefenseequipmentishopelesslyoutdated,farinexcessofitsnormalshelflife.TheUkieairdefensesystemshavenottrainedwithlivefiringfordacades.UnliketheRussianwhousecontractedprofessionalsonallcruciallevels,theUkiesareknowntobeusingconscriptssimplyduetoalackoffunds.ToillustratethebloodlymesstheUkieairdefensesare,itis



enoughtorecallherehowgrossincompetence,mismanagementandoutdatedequipmentresultedinthedowningoftheSiberianAirlinescivilianaircraftin2001.Sincethen,thingsintheUkieairdefenseshaveonlygottenmuchworse.Still,theUkiesdidhaveanATCwhichattheveryleastshouldhavereportedthatacivilianairlinehadaflightplanwhichwouldfollowthepointsXYZ.IjustcannotimagineaUkieofficergivingtheordertoshootatanaircraftwithoutcheckingfortheavailableflightplans.Also,asfarasIknow,nobodyeverreportedthatthetransponderontheaircraftdidnotworkand,ifso,thenthatmeansthattheUkieairdefensecrewshouldhavebeenreceivingaclearsignalidentifyingtheaircraft.Letmeaddherethatyoucanpurchasespecialreceiversandantennaswhichcanreceivetranspondersignalsonthemarketandthattheyarecomparativelycheap(1000bucksrangeIthink).Lastly,butstillanoption,aUkieairdefenseoperatorcouldhavesimplyliftedthephone,calledtheATCandaskedwhosuchandsuchaircraftwas.Andevenwithoutthat:whenyouseeanaircraftflyingrightaround550knotsat10'000minastraightlineinacivilianairtrafficcorridor,youcankindaguessthatthisisnotamilitaryaircraftonabombingrun.SoregardlessofthestateofdisrepairoftheUkieairdefenseforces,thereisjustnowaythattheycouldhavemistakenthisairlinerforaRussianmilitaryjetflyingonacombatmission.Oh,anddidImentionMH17wasflyingonwesttoeastcourse,notfromRussia,buttowardsRussia?Bottomlinehereformeisthis:thereisnowaytheUkiescouldhaveshotdownthisaircraftbymistake.

TheNovorussiansnow

Well,hereagainwetrulyhaveadramaticallydifferentpictureemerging.First,theNovorussianshavenoATC.Second,99%oftheirairdefensesystemsareeitherMANPADs(manportable)orheavymachineguns.Ididseefootageofsomekindofairdefenseradarandcommandpost,butIsuspectthatthiswassimplyonesurveillanceradarleftbytheUkies.Nodatafusionhere,nointegratedairdefensenetwork,nolongrangemissiles.ExceptforthefewBukM1swhichtheydidgetasatrophywhentheytookcontrolaUkiebaseamonthorsoago.ThefactisthatIamstillunsurewhethertheyreallygotanythingoperablesystemsatall(theUkiesclaimthattheirsoldiershaddisabledthem,butthatmightnotbetrue).Butweprobablyhavetoassumethattheygottheirhandsonaleastoneoperationalvehiclewithitsownsurveillanceradar,engagementradarandmissiles.AsImentionedearlier,modernstateswouldintegratetheBukintoafullairdefensenetwork,butsinceinwartimethismightnotbepossible,itispossiblefortheBuktodetect,acquireandengageatargetallbyitself.Frankly,IfinditveryunlikelythatthesystemstheNovorussiansgottheirhandsonwouldhavebeenoperational.Ifinditevenmoreunlikelythattheywouldalsohavethepeopletooperatethem.Still,justtocoverourbases,wehavetoassumethatwithRussianaidthesesystemscouldhavebeenmoreorlessfixed,andthatacrewcouldalsohavebeensentfromRussia.Unlikely?Farfetched?Yes.But,alas,notimpossible.

Still,thereistheflightprofileissue.TherealthreatforNovorussianscomesfromcloseairsupport(lowlevel)andfromreconnaissance(mediumlevel)aircraft.Notthoseflyingat10'000meters.Also,aBoeing777ismuchlargerthananAn26,Su25,Su24orevenSu27.Also,askyourself,IFyouhadsuchacapableandadvancedairdefensesystemastheBuk,wouldyouwasteitonapoorlyidentifiedtarget?Probablynot.Still,IthinkthatatleastintheorytheNororussianscouldhaveshotdownthisaircraft.Nowlet'slookatthefamous

Cuibono?

Wellhereatleastthereplyisunambiguous:onlythejuntainKievcouldhavebenefitedfromthistragedy.FortheRussiansandtheNovorussians,thisissomethingbetweenarealpainandadisaster.JustwhentheNovorussianswerewinningwithoutanyoverthelpfromMoscowandjustwhenMoscowwasgraduallysuccessfulindenouncingthehumancostsofPoroshenko'smurderouspoliciessuddenlytheentireplanetfocusesjustononedownedaircraftandtheimperialcorporatemediablamesitallonRussia.Asfor



Poroshenko,thisdisasterisGodsent:notonlyhaseverybodyforgottenthatmuchpromised"surprise"turnedouttobeadisaster,hecannowkillscoresofNovorussianswithnorisksofthatbeingreportedinthecorporatemedia.Notonlythat,butthatgivestheUkiesagoldenexcusetoaskfor""protection"fromtheir"aggressiveandthreateningneighbor".Again,theonlypartywhocanbenefitfromthisdisasteristhejunta.So,insummary,wehavethislistofcandidates:

1)AdeliberateormistakenRussianattack:superlativelyunlikely2)AmistakenUkrainianattack:mostunlikely3)AdeliberateUkrainianattack:mostlikely4)AmistakenNovorussianattack:possible5)AdeliberateNovorussianattack:mostunlikely

Idon'tknowaboutyou,buttome#3istheoneblinkingred.

Nowlet'slookatsomeofthecrazyrumorswhichwehaveheardtoday.

a)oneortwoUkiemilitaryaircraftshadowingMH17beforeitwasshotdown.b)atleastoneparachuteafterMH17wasshotdown.c)anairtoairattack.d)anattemptasshootingdownPutin'saircraft.

Idon'tknowifanyoftheseabovearetrue,butwhatIdonoticeisthatallofthem,iftrue,only'fit'scenario#3:adeliberateUkieattack.NobodyclaimedthatMH17wasshadowedbyRussianfightersandtheNovorussiansdon'thaveanyanyway(theyonlyhaveoneSu25).Ifsomebodywasshotdown(theparachutes)thenitwasmostdefinitelynotaRussianAirForceaircraft.Dittoforanairtoairattack.AsforshootingdownPutin'saircraft,thisseemsfarfetchedtome,evenforthecrazyfreakshowinpowerinKiev.However,IwouldnotputthatkindoftrickpassedUncleSamwhocanalwaysblameitontheUkies.WhatissureisthattheUSwantsPutindead.Somaybe?

ThecurrentversionoftheNovorussiansisaninterestingone:theysaythataUkieSu25shotdownMH17andthattheythenshotdowntheUkieSu25.Actually,thisisnotthemostunlikelypossibility.Ofcourse,thisalsomeansthatiftheNovorussiansattemptedtoshootdownaUkieSu25theymighthavemissedandthemissilemighthavecontinuedtowardstheMH17especiallyifitsradarhadgoneactive.SoaNovorussianmistakeisstilla"possible",atleastinmymind.If,andthisisabigIF,thiswasaNovorussianmistake,Idon'tfeelthatwecanblamethemverymuch.TheoneundeniablefactisthatthisdisasterhappenedinUkrainianATCspaceandthey,theUkieATC,hadtheprimaryresponsibilitytokeepMH17inasafeaircorridorandnottheNovorussianswhohadneitherthetechnicalmeansnorthelegalobligationtodoso.Also,justafewdaysagotheUkieshadannouncedthattheywereclosingtheairspaceoverthecombatzonetoanaltitudeof9600m(ifIremembercorrectly).IftheNovorussiansheardthis,theycouldhaveeasilyconcludedthatMH17wasamilitaryreconflightflyingtowardsDonestkfromDnepropetrovsk.Besides,IamnotatallsurethattheradarontheBukM1candifferentiatebetween9'600mand10'000mor,ifitcan,thattheoperatorwouldhavebeenawareofthedifferencethiscouldmean.

Again,keepinmindmycaveatabove.Iamnot,repeat,notaspecialistofairdefenses.ButIdiddosomeairdefenseandmonitoringworkinmypast,andonthebasisofthatexperienceandofwhatIhaveheardsofarisheremyguess:



IwouldsaythatatthispointintimeIam90%infavorofthedeliberateUkieattacktheory.Theremaining10%IwouldgivetothemistakenNovorussianattackversion.IammorethanwillingtochangemymindifIgetnewfacts.

Stuffweshouldlookfor

First,theblackboxes.Evenwhenhit,mostpilotshavethetimetosaysomethingandthatsomethingisusuallyrecordedandradioed.Dependingonthefrequencyused,that"something"shouldhavebeenheardbyPLENTYofreceivers,notonlytheUkieATC.Butattheveryleast,weshouldhavethevoiceanddatarecordersfromthelastminutesofMH17.

Second,Russianradartracks.Thatisaproblem.TheRussianmilitaryisoneoftheworstoffendersintermsofsecrecyandshortofadirectorderbyPutin,theyarelikelytobemostuncooperative.Still,theseguysprobablyhaveitall:ATCchatter,pilotmessages,transportersignal,exactlocationofthemissile(s)launched,pointofimpact,etc.AsIsaid,theymostlikelyhada20/20visionoftheairspaceoverDonetsk.Thetrickistogetthemtoshareit,especiallywiththecorporatemediaandthe"independent"expertsallalreadyclamoringthattheRussiansaretamperingwiththeflightrecorders.Still,thingsarechanginginRussia,possiblyafterthePRdisasterfollowingtheSovietshootingdownofKAL007(whichmostdefinitelywasaUSspymissionanddeliberateprovocation),theyaremorewillingtosharedata.AspokesmanfortheRussianAirForcehasalreadydisclosedthattheyhadrecordedthesignalsofaUkieBukM1batterysurveillanceradaratthemomentofthetragedy.HeevenidentifiedtheexactUkieunitinvolved.Hopefully,asthisscandalsnowballs,theKremlinwillordertheRussianAirForcetomakemoredatapublic.NottoconvinceUncleSamandhisEUminions,ofcourse,butatleasttoconvincetherestoftheplanet.

SpeakingofUncleSamandhisEUminions.Theyalsoknow.TheUSandNATOmaintainsa24/7surveillanceofUkieandRussianairspaceatleasttotheUrals,possiblyevenontheotherside(thoughIamnotsure).IbetyouthatObamawastoldwhodoneitwithin2hoursofthetragedyhappening.ThatinfowasprobablysharedwiththeEcheloncountries,butnotwiththerestofNATO,buteventheyprobablyknowthankstotheirownintelligencecapability(BanderastanischockfullofEUspiesnotasingleoneofwhichwasevercaughtbytheUkieSBUsinceindependence!).Sohereagainwehavea9/11kindofsituation:everybodyknows,butnobodywilladmitit.

Thelastquestionthen

Thereisanobviouslastquestionwhichweneedtoask:iftheUkiesdidit,couldtheyhavedonesowithouttheUSknowingaboutit?Theanswer,incaseanybodyhadanydoubtsaboutthis,isabsolutelycategoricallyandemphaticallynot.NowayJose,notthisregime,notonewhichis110%dependentof,andsubmittedto,UncleSam.Inotherwords,ifthiswasadeliberateUkieattack,thenthisreallywasadeliberateUSattack.Notquitea"falseflag",butasneakydirtytrick,alongtimeUSspecialty.ThetypicalUSwayworkslikethis:organizedandplannedbyUncleSam,paidforbytheSaudis,executedbytheIsraelis.AtleastthatisthehistoricalrecordforUSdirtytricks.Thatisalsomostlikelyhow9/11wasdone.Whybringin9/11severaltimesattheriskofinfuriatingthedoubleplusgoodthinkingcrowdyetagain?No,notjustfortheheckofit,buttoremindeverybodythatthefolkswhokilled3000+peopleon9/11wouldnothesitateforananosecondtokill"only"300orso,especiallyiftheriskofgettingcaughtisnegligible,whichinthiscaseitis.Ifinthecaseof9/11itistheentireEstablishmentwhichbystupidityorbycowardicewhichwasmadeanaccompliceofthecrime,inthiscasethefolkswhodiditwillhavethesupportofarabidlyrussophobicEstablishmentwhichwillnotcareonebitaboutthetruthaslongasitallowsittofurtherflametheflamesofhatredagainstRussia.



VINEYARDSAKER:at23:28

AprovisionalconclusionofsortsLasciateOgniSperanza

Thiscrimewillneverbeproperlyinvestigatednorwilltheculpritseverbepunishedforit.Ohsure,therewillbeplentyofbooksinthefuturewhowillrevealitallinminutedetailsbut,asMichelParentialwaysremindsus,historyisnotonlywrittenbyvictors,itisalsowrittenbytheelites,theoligarchs,thebankingestablishment,the1%ers.Ifanything,9/11hasproventhatoursocietyiscompletelyindifferenttofactsandproof.Oursocietyisruledbyideologicaldogmaandpoliticalexpediency.InthecaseofMH17theaccepteddogmaisthattheNovorussiansarethebadguysandthepoliticalexpediencysaysthatthislatestcrimecannotbeblamedonthe"heroicEuroUkrainianfreedomfighters"or,evenlessso,onUncleSam.

JustasIwrotethislastsentenceabove,IdecidedtocheckmyfavoriteImperialMouthpieceand,sureenough,Ireadthis:"USPresidentBarackObamahassaidasurfacetoairmissilefiredfromarebelheldareaineastUkrainebroughtdownMalaysiaAirlinesflightMH17".See,itisthatsimple!Howneedsflightrecordersofradartracksanyway?!IftheUSPresidentsaidso,thenitisso.Anyotherinterpretationisacriminaldelusionborderingonterrorism.WhoneedsproofwhenwegotbothPoroshenkoandObamasayingthattheRussikiesdidit?

Iamdisgustedbeyondwordsbybothoftheseugly,evil,clowns.

Well,Ihopethatthatsomeofyouwillhavefoundtheexercisesaboveuseful,regardlessofallmycaveats.IwishmyrecollectionofworkingwithairdefenseswasbetterandIwishmyknowledgewasnot25yearold.Asalways,thisisthebestIcandoandIshareittoyou,myfriends,inthehopetoresisttheimperialpropagandamachinethebestIcan.Iftherearethoseamongstyouwhohaveamorerecentandpossiblymorehandsonknowledgeofthesetopics,Ibegthemtosharethatknowledgewiththerestofus.

Kindregardsandmanythanks,

TheSaker

3

187comments:

Anonymous 18July,201423:44

Myguessisitisamix:100%ChanceUkrainianKievintentionaldirectedtheplaneoverthatpathandlowereditsflightpathto1000maboveprohibitedspace,AND(then50%UkrainiansshotitdownOR50%theSelf Defense Forces shot it down thinking it was a Military Plane. ) In all cases, it is theUkrainianKievfailuretoindicatethatshouldbeacompletenoflyzone.Nowinreturn,Ihaveseven apartments in Lugansk being shelled by massive Ukrainian Arty attacks with theUkrainiansLyingOpenlyandclaimingtheLPRisshellingtheirowncity.Whichmindyoumanyof these LPR people are Lugansk Residents. Lugansk has a much larger percentage of

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The Vineyard of the Saker_ Memories, Recollections, Guesses and Speculations About MH17