The Water Situation in

California and the

CITRUS Industry: Do we respond adequately?

Ariel Dinar

Water Science and Policy Center

University of California, Riverside

1

October 11, 2012

What will be covered

Confession

The water situation in California Spatial distribution

Population

Water supply variability

Water quality

Competition between urban and ag

Trends in citrus production in California Growth over time

Distribution over counties

Indication of water scarcity?

Incremental sources of water for irrigation Groundwater

Recycled wastewater

2

Story line of possible future scenarios

Water resources are fixed

Population increases and redistribution in California

Changes in social preferences

Changes in regional demands

Competition between ag and urban sectors increases

Reallocation of water from agriculture to urban uses

Increase in water prices

Climate change impacts and adaptations

Groundwater

Recycled wastewater

Challenges and opportunities

3

World Population 7 Billion

4 Source: National Geographic 1/2011 pg. 41

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

2050

http://www.worldometers.info/population/

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

illi

on

) C

ub

ic m

ete

rs p

er

cap

ita

California population growth

5

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

California Population

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Δ Population

California is not alone !

6

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

CA

Israel

South Africa

Assuming mean annual available water in California 35 million AF

Available water per capita=

The water originates far from where it is

consumed

Annual runoff

Population distribution

7

Historical Mean Temp and Trends in California

Source: Draft Report of the Blue Ribbon Committee The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, March 2011

2.5F

8

Water Supply is Getting Scarcer

Some progress in

conservation, water

markets, groundwater

banking, and recycling

But major gaps in

groundwater

management

And institutional

barriers blocking water

market expansion

9

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Th

ou

san

ds

of

acr

e-f

eet

California’s water market

dry years short-termlong-term flows permanent

Source:

Water Quality is a Growing Concern

Clean Water laws have reduced pollution from point sources

But runoff from farms, cities, construction sites still not well managed

And few controls on new chemicals

Rising drinking water costs, harm to species

See a later set of slides on salinity and GW

10

Source:

The Likely Impact of Climate Change on

California’s Water Sector (1) Physical Changes to Water Supply, Demand, and

Storage The Amount of Water Stored in the Sierra Snowpack

Will Decrease

Streamflows Will Occur Earlier Than Under Historic Conditions

The Effective Surface Water Supply Will Be Reduced

There Will Be Increased Variability in California’s Surface Water Supply

Droughts Will Occur More Frequently and Will Be More Extreme and Last Longer

Increased Water Temperatures Will Adversely Affect Fish Habitat

Increased Sea Levels Will Increase the Potential for Sea Water Intrusion in the Delta and Coastal Aquifers

Source: Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California: Legal Analysis of Barriers to Adaptation for California’s Water Sector. Publication # CEC-500-2012-019

11

The Likely Impact of Climate Change on

California’s Water Sector (2)

Human Responses That Will Further Impact

Water Supply, Demand and Storage

Current Conflicts over Surface Water Diversions

Are Likely to Be Exacerbated

Groundwater Extraction Will Increase to

Compensate for Diminished Streamflows

The Demand of Water for Outdoor and Irrigation

Uses Will Increase

The Demand for Storage Will Increase to

Compensate for Decreased Streamflows

Water Marketing Will Help, but Is Not Enough

Source: Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California: Legal Analysis of Barriers to Adaptation for California’s Water Sector. Publication # CEC-500-2012-019

12

Expand Water Supply Portfolios

Agricultural conservation

Urban conservation

Big help with the Delta

Groundwater banking

Cheaper than surface

storage

Big help with climate

warming

Water markets

Many opportunities given

low-value acreage share

13

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2050 2100

Millio

ns o

f acre

-feet

per

year

Urban Conservation Scenarios

Aggressive conservation, slower growth

Aggressive conservation, moderate growth

Moderate conservation, expected growth

Without conservation, expected growth Source:

Changes in Citrus Acreages 2004-2012 (bearing and non-bearing)

County Change in Acre 2004-2012 % of area Area 2004 % Area 2012 % Change in Acre 2004-2012

Butte 63 0.019900498 201 0.000891507 205 0.000772134 4

Fresno 6012 0.22950138 26,453 0.117328496 32,524 0.122501864 6,071

Glenn 3 0.007672634 391 0.001734225 394 0.001484004 3

Imperial 1323 0.26802637 4,854 0.021529222 6,155 0.023182849 1,301

Kern 9353 0.205245528 45,677 0.202593797 55,052 0.207353728 9,375

Kings 80 1.290322581 62 0.000274992 142 0.000534844 80

Madera 1738 0.423799073 4,101 0.018189399 5,839 0.021992633 1,738

Monteray 1 0 925 0.004102705 925 0.003484019 0

Orange 22 0.053488372 430 0.001907203 453 0.001706228 23

Placer 74 0.11965812 117 0.000518937 131 0.000493412 14

Riverside 744 0.050799744 15,630 0.069324628 16,424 0.061861106 794

San Bernardino 147 0.041414141 2,970 0.01317301 3,093 0.011649805 123

San Diego 423 0.051890542 8,807 0.039062188 9,264 0.034892918 457

San Luis Obispo 80 0.045300113 1,766 0.00783284 1,846 0.006952971 80

Santa Barbara 97 0.070036101 1,385 0.006142969 1,482 0.005581963 97

Stanislaus 329 0 226 0.001002391 226 0.000851231 0

Tulare 17002 0.193249096 89,351 0.396303574 106,618 0.401577413 17,267

Ventura 2517 0.117902334 21,891 0.097094398 24,472 0.092173952 2,581

Yolo 608 0.129464286 224 0.00099352 253 0.000952926 29

Total 40616 0.177578384 225461 1 265498 1 40037 14

Source: 2012 California Citrus Acreage Report, California Department of Food and Agriculture, 2012 (www.nass.usda.gov/ca)

Citrus area increased in any region

Regional expansion

Some regions expanded dramatically

Profitability

Water availability and quality

Climate change

New verieties

Technological advancements

15

Citrus growth over time in California

2004, 225,926

2005, 234,560

2006, 241,090

2007, 245,698

2008, 250,544

2009, 256,914

2010, 261,376 2011, 264,477

2012, 266,090

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total State Area (Acre)

220000

225000

230000

235000

240000

245000

250000

255000

260000

265000

270000

275000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Prdicted Area

Actual Area

16

Adjusted R-Square 0.996

Changes in Citrus Acreages 2004-2012

17 Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture, 2012

County Change in Acres 04-12 % of Change

(04-12)

Fresno 6012 23

Imperial 1323 27

Kern 9353 21

Madera 1738 42

Tulare 17002 19

Ventura 2517 12

Yolo 608 13

Agriculture varies in its vulnerability to climate change.

The map shows a composite index of vulnerability

revealing the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, Salinas

Valley, Imperial Valley, and the corridor between Merced

and Fresno as particularly vulnerable. Underlying

factors vary among regions, including differences in

climate, crops, land use and socioeconomic factors.

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in California Agriculture. Publication # CEC-500-2012-031 18

Is Citrus expansion sensitive

to climate vulnerability?

Citrus water use (1) San Joaquin Valley-South (UC Cooperative

Extension, O’Connell et al., 2009, 2010, 2011)

Low volume irrigation technology

Oranges, Mandarins (Tango), Lemons

District water only

No water quality considerations

Cost of water $129 per AF ($10.75 per acre-inch)-mid range

Irrigation operation: add labor for operating and monitoring

No assumptions regarding effective rainfall, runoff, evaporation, tree size, tree health

19

Citrus water use per acre (2)

Lemon

(2010)

Tango

(2011)

Orange

(2009)

Water

(acre-foot) 2.75 2.5 2.5

Water cost ($) 355.0 323.0 323.0

Variable production cost ($) 2204.0 2487.0 2065.0

Water/VPC (%) 16.1 13.0 15.6 20

Performance of citrus in reference

countries

21

Israel

Water

(af/acre)

Yield

(lb/acre)

2.60

(lemon) 62,510

2.27

(orange) 49,115

No. Spain (surface)

Water

(af/acre)

Yield

(lb/acre)

1.67

(lemon) 26,657

No. Spain (drip)

Water

(af/acre)

Yield

(lb/acre)

1.17

(lemon) 28,576

Output per unit of applied irrigation water in 3 countries

facing similar water and climate situation as California

22

Country Oranges

(lbs/af)

Lemons

(lbs/af)

Israel 21,628 24,086

No. Spain (surface) 15,679

No. Spain (drip) 24,333

So. Spain (2002-06) 8,194 8,266

Australia (1990) 7,340

Source: Official government publications

1lb/af=559.5 kg/cubic meter

GW: sample areas

23

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12.

GW: Estimated salinity in wells

24

Source: Mukherjee, M. and K.A. Schwabe,“Identifying

Value of Groundwater Services to the Growers Based on

Spatial Heterogeneity of these Resources”, Working

paper, 2012.

In most production regions the

GW salinity ranges between

0-1000 micromhos per cm.

In some regions it ranges

between 1000-2000.

(tap water salinity ranges

between 50-800)

GW: Estimated depth to water table

Source: Mukherjee, M. and K.A. Schwabe, “Identifying

Value of Groundwater Services to the Growers Based on

Spatial Heterogeneity of these Resources”, Working

paper, 2012. 25

In most production

areas depth to GW

table is between

70-300 feet.

Challenges and opportunities:

summary

Water scarcity

Use of GW

Use of wastewater

Water quality

Impact on yield and yield quality

Impact on environment, water bodiesregulations

Technology

Varieties

Water-related research

26