The way we consequences Planning for Economic and Fiscal ...€¦ · The way we design and build our communities has enormous consequences " " " 1. The market is changing, especially

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Planning for Economic and Fiscal Health

Bill Fulton Vice President, Smart Growth America

Former Mayor, Ventura, CA

The way we design and build our communities has enormous

consequences

"""

1. The market is changing, especially for housing"

"2. The recipe for economic growth "

is changing""

3. We can no longer afford to use tax money to subsidize inefficiency"

"""

We must be aware of 3 important factors affecting the future of our communities

THE CHANGING MARKET

Your community is changing "

and preferences and the "

market are following.

THE CHANGING MARKET

Your community is changing

•  There are two demographic changes that are driving the market and must drive your decision making. – The rise of the Millenials. – The aging of the Baby Boomers.

THE CHANGING MARKET

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Demographic change and "the labor force

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

Greatest Genera?on Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials

POPULATION

LABOR FORCE

PROSPERITY

Your community is changing

52%

67%

72%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1960 2000 2025

households with children

households without children

Households with and without children, 1960-2025

THE CHANGING MARKET

Preferences: Housing •  Millennials especially are trending away from

traditional suburbs – 47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb

with a mix of houses, shops, and businesses – 40% would prefer a rural or a small town – 12% say they would prefer a suburban

neighborhood with houses only

•  Boomers want to age in their community

THE CHANGING MARKET

Preferences

•  Americans’ ideal communities have a mix of houses, places to walk, and amenities within an easy walk or close drive. – 77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly

features. – 88% place more value on the quality of the "

neighborhood than the size of the home.

Source: Consumer survey conducted for the National Association of Realtors

THE CHANGING MARKET

The market: Housing THE CHANGING MARKET

Preferences THE CHANGING MARKET

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Preferences: Transportation •  Millenials are driving less

– From 2001 to 2009, the average annual number of vehicle-miles traveled by people ages 16-34 dropped 23 percent. (source: National Household Travel Survey)

– 26 percent lacked a driver's license in 2010, up 5 percentage points from 2000 (source: Federal Highway Administration)

THE CHANGING MARKET

Preferences: Transportation •  Baby boomers turning in their keys

– Using local buses and trains more (source: National Household Travel Survey)

– Bike trips increased 64 percent between 2001 and 2009. (AARP)

THE CHANGING MARKET

The market: Transportation THE CHANGING MARKET

How will your community meets the needs of "

millennials and aging boomers in order to improve your

competitiveness?"

THE CHANGING MARKET

PROSPERITY The nature of the economy "

is changing and so is the role of

communities in economic growth.

PROSPERITY

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PROSPERITY

The Network City"(city as network)

PROSPERITY

The rise of the millennials "and the global economy

are driving the economy.

PROSPERITY

Demographic change and "the labor force

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

Greatest Genera?on Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials

POPULATION

LABOR FORCE

PROSPERITY

The labor force

•  Millenials choose where to live before finding a job. – 64% looked for a job after they chose the city

where to live. (Source: U.S. Census)

•  How people want to work is changing and where they want to work is changing.

PROSPERITY

The labor force

From office space….

PROSPERITY

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The labor force

….to office settings.

Research Triangle Park, Raleigh, NC

Kendall Square, Cambridge, MA

PROSPERITY

Businesses respond to "changing preferences

•  Across the country corporations are responding to employee preferences and moving to the talent.

•  They are choosing to relocate from suburban offices to downtown locations.

PROSPERITY

Businesses respond to "changing preferences

Zappos, Las Vegas, NV

Hillshire, Chicago, IL

PROSPERITY

How can your community take advantage of the "

changing nature of the economy in order to create

jobs and wealth?

FISCAL HEALTH

FISCAL HEALTH How communities "develop affects "

costs and revenue.

FISCAL HEALTH

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Municipal budgets

•  Municipal budgets are feeling pressure •  State and federal funds are disappearing •  Costs are escalating •  Tax bases have shrunk

FISCAL HEALTH

Municipal budgets

•  A large portion of municipal budgets go to infrastructure and services. – building and maintaining roads, bridges, sewer

and water lines, etc – providing fire and police services, trash

removal, paratransit, etc"

FISCAL HEALTH

Municipal budgets

•  Costs are not just infrastructure related but also operations and maintenance."

•  Burden usually falls on taxpayers.

FISCAL HEALTH

Municipal budgets

•  You have to spend on these things."

•  You need to ensure that you are spending those funds in the most effective and efficient manner."

•  Budgets are not just financial documents – they reveal are goals and what we value.

FISCAL HEALTH

Development affects costs

• When it comes to infrastructure costs… – Compact development development is the best

deal. – Low-density suburban development rarely pays

for itself. –  It makes sense to reuse existing infrastructure.

FISCAL HEALTH

Development affects costs FISCAL HEALTH

Building infrastructure to serve new development on the fringe can cost the city up to three times more per acre than urban infill development.

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•  Compact development offers efficiencies in regards to services as well. – Police and fire departments have less area to

cover. – Fewer miles of road to cover for snow removal

and trash pickup.

Case Study: Charlotte, NC Fire Stations



$-‐

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Sta?on 2

Sta?on 15

Sta?on 14

Sta?on 24

Sta?on 22

Sta?on 19

Sta?on 9

Sta?on 31

Sta?on 31 w/ Shelley

Greater Connectivity çè Less Connectivity

Annualized Per-‐Capita Life Cycle Costs (based on 2-‐apparatus sta?on)

Greater Connectivity çè Less Connectivity

Households per Fire Sta?on

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Sta?on 2 Sta?on 15

Sta?on 14

Sta?on 24

Sta?on 22

Sta?on 19

Sta?on 9 Sta?on 31

Sta?on 31 w/ Shelley

Development affects revenue FISCAL HEALTH

• When it comes to revenue… – Compact development is the best deal. – Low-density suburban development generates

much less per acre revenue. – You can increase your property tax base

significantly simply by bringing back areas that already exist


•  The revenue side of things is affected as well.

Multifamily housing in near an area’s center can generate nine times more revenue per acre than traditional large-lot, single-family housing on the fringe.

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$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Wal-‐Mart Single-‐Family Residen?al

Crabtree Valley Mall 3-‐4 Story Residen?al 3 Story Office 6-‐Story Mixed Use

Municipal property tax yield (per acre) 2011 Raleigh, NC


Denser development can carry an en?re city financially Can your community continue to "

subsidize inefficiencies of"development patterns, "while not reaping the "

potential reward?

FISCAL HEALTH

What does your community "need to do to grow a "

healthy economy?

ECONOMIC HEALTH

The big questions

•  How will your community meets the needs of "millennials and aging boomers in order to improve your competitiveness?

•  How can your community take advantage of the "changing nature of the economy in order to create jobs and wealth?

•  Can your community continue to subsidize inefficiencies of development patterns and not reap the potential reward?

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Planning for Economic and Fiscal Health

Bill Fulton Vice President, Smart Growth America

Former Mayor, Ventura, CA

Documents

The way we consequences Planning for Economic and Fiscal ...€¦ · The way we design and build our communities has enormous consequences " " " 1. The market is changing, especially