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Professor Tassu Shervani
The workforce of the future
Our time together will focus on….
► Global demographic trends and workforce implications
► Economic trends driving a relook at workforce issues
► Technology trends reshaping the workforce and employer-
employee relations
Global flows continue to outpace global GDP growth, despite the financial crisis and slow recovery
Remittance flows are larger than ODA, and more stable than private capital flows
World Bank “Migration and Remittances: Recent Developments and Outlook” Special Topic: Financing for Development, April 13, 2015, p. 5
Our time together will focus on….
► Global demographic trends and workforce implications
► Economic trends driving a relook at workforce issues
► Technology trends reshaping the workforce and employer-
employee relations
The most important number today…..
2.1
Fertility by Continent
Total fertility per woman
1970-1975 1990-1995 2005-2010 2010-2015 2025-2030
WORLD 4.4 3 2.5 2.5 2.4
AFRICA 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.7 3.9
ASIA 5 3 2.3 2.2 2
EUROPE 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 5 3 2.3 2.2 1.9
NORTHERN AMERICA 2 2 2 1.9 2
OCEANIA 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
UN World Fertility Patterns, 2013 - www.unpopulation.org
Africa
Total fertility per woman
1970-1975 1990-1995 2005-2010 2010-2015 2025-2030
AFRICA 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.7 3.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 6.8 6.2 5.4 5.1 4.1
Eastern Africa 7.1 6.4 5.4 4.9 3.8
Middle Africa 6.4 6.9 6.2 5.7 4.4
Northern Africa 6.4 4.1 3.1 3 2.6
Southern Africa 5.6 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.1
Western Africa 6.8 6.4 5.7 5.6 4.7
UN World Fertility Patterns, 2013 - www.unpopulation.org
Asia
Total fertility per woman
1970-1975 1990-1995 2005-2010 2010-2015 2025-2030
ASIA 5 3 2.3 2.2 2
Eastern Asia 4.4 2 1.6 1.7 1.7
South-Central Asia 5.5 3.9 2.7 2.5 2.2
Central Asia 5 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.3
Southern Asia 5.6 3.9 2.7 2.5 2.2
South-Eastern Asia 5.5 3.1 2.4 2.2 2
Western Asia 5.7 4 2.9 2.7 2.4
UN World Fertility Patterns, 2013 - www.unpopulation.org
Europe
Total fertility per woman
1970-1975 1990-1995 2005-2010 2010-2015 2025-2030
EUROPE 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7
Eastern Europe 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7
Northern Europe 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9
Southern Europe 2.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6
Western Europe 2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8
UN World Fertility Patterns, 2013 - www.unpopulation.org
Latin America & the Caribbean
Total fertility per woman
1970-1975 1990-1995 2005-2010 2010-2015 2025-2030
LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN
5 3 2.3 2.2 1.9
Caribbean 4.4 2.8 2.4 2.3 2
Central America 6.4 3.4 2.6 2.4 2
South America 4.6 2.9 2.2 2.1 1.9
UN World Fertility Patterns, 2013 - www.unpopulation.org
North America and Oceana
Total fertility per woman
1970-1975 1990-1995 2005-2010 2010-2015 2025-2030
NORTHERN AMERICA 2 2 2 1.9 2
OCEANIA 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
Australia/New Zealand 2.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Melanesia 5.8 4.5 3.9 3.6 3
UN World Fertility Patterns, 2013 - www.unpopulation.org
UN World Fertility Patterns, 2013 - www.unpopulation.org
UN World Fertility Patterns, 2013 - www.unpopulation.org
Simplified population math at 3.0 birthrate
Gen 0 Gen 1 Gen 2
Pop. 100m 150m 225m
M 50m 75m 112m
F 50m 75m 112m
Simplified population math at 1.3 birthrate
Gen 0 Gen 1 Gen 2
Pop. 100m 65m 42m
M 50m 32.5m 21m
F 50m 32.5m 21m
The Future Demographic Map Potential surplus population in working age group (2020)
Japan -9m
Russia -6m Germany -3m UK -2m
Ireland 0m
France -3m
Spain -3m
Italy -2m China -10m
US -17m
Australia -0.5m
Mexico 5m
Brazil 3m
Egypt 4m
Malaysia 1m
Philippines 5m
Indonesia 5m
India 47m
Note: Potential surplus is calculated keeping the ratio of working population (age group 15-59) to total population constant Source: U.S. Census Bureau; BCG Analysis
Global diversity drives mobility
• More women in the workforce Gender Diversity
• Boomers, Gen X, Gen Y (Millennials) • Low participation in science and technology education Generational Diversity
• Rapid growth of minority populations • Low participation in science and technology education
(URM’s) Ethnic/Other Diversity
• Workforce around the world Global Diversity
Global diversity drives mobility
► Cross-border migration reaches a cumulative total of between 194mm and 257mm, depending on the estimate
► Offshoring – up to a quarter of all developed country jobs are highly or somewhat susceptible
► Temporary mobility assignments are on the increase
Global New Partner Program
Offshoring potential
Our time together will focus on….
► Global demographic trends and workforce implications
► Economic trends driving a relook at workforce issues
► Technology trends reshaping the workforce and employer-
employee relations
Geopolitical concerns persist, commodity and currency volatility rises
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What do you believe to be the greatest economic risk to your business over the next 6–12 months?
37%
35%
10%
9%
7%
2%
Increased global and regionalpolitical instability
Increased volatility in commoditiesand currencies
Economic situation in the Eurozone
Regulatory environment
Slowing growth in key emergingmarkets
Deflation Apr-15
► Continuing geopolitical issues in Eastern Europe and the Middle East cause most concern around economic risk. ► The sharp fall in commodity prices and increasing volatility of currencies make it more difficult to plan ahead. ► Divergent monetary policies may impact currency fluctuations.
Seven years after the beginning of the global financial crisis…….
Pre-crisis period 10 years
Early stage of recession 1 – 2 years
Private-sector deleveraging
3 – 6 years
Rebound and public-sector deleveraging
~ 10 years
Private debt/GDP
Public debt/GDP
Real GDP
Real GDP growth 3% – 4% 0% – (5%) 0% – 2% 3% – 4%
Change in Debt/GDP (% points)
• Public sector + ++ +++ – – – • Private sector +++ + – – – +++
Recession Deleveraging
Seven years after the beginning of the global financial crisis…….
Private debt/GDP
Public debt/GDP
Real GDP
Recession Deleveraging
Pre-crisis period 10 years
Real GDP growth (Annual Avg. %) Change in debt/GDP (% points)
• Public sector • Private sector
3% – 4%
+ +++
Early stage of recession 1 – 2 years
Private-sector deleveraging
3 – 6 years
Rebound and public-sector deleveraging
~ 10 years
0% – (5%)
++
+
0% – 2%
+++
– – –
3% – 4%
+++
– – –
Eurozone crisis
Scenarios: ► Uncoordinated unwinding of the Euro – very low probability ► Some countries exit the Euro and revert to lower valued currencies, or
Germany + exit Euro and revert to higher valued currencies – modest probability
► Greater economic and political integration to further strengthen the Euro – highest probability, >50% ► Common bank regulator – ECB ► Lender of last resort – ECB ► Common bonds – fiscal coordination
Migrants are undertaking dangerous crossings of the Mediterranean
World Bank “Migration and Remittances: Recent Developments and Outlook” Special Topic: Financing for Development, April 13, 2015, p. 7
Global New Partner Program
Rising income and wealth inequality and consumption
Our time together will focus on….
► Global demographic trends and workforce implications
► Economic trends driving a relook at workforce issues
► Technology trends reshaping the workforce and employer-
employee relations
World R&D comparison (2013) Source: Battelle, R&D Magazine, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, CIA Fact Book, OECD
Number 1 sector for R&D spending – Information and communications technology (ICT)
Impact of automation via the internet of things
Strategies to succeed in today’s demographic, technological and global economic environment
Microsoft’s challenge
Time
PC Era
Mobile Device Era
S-Curves Pharmaceuticals - technology
Time
Traditional Pharmaceutical Drugs
Biologics In
dust
ry S
hifts
S-Curves Digital Imaging – technology and business models
Time
Analog Imaging – Kodak, Fuji
Digital Imaging – Canon, Fuji, Kodak, Sony, Etc.
Smart Imaging – Apple, Samsung, Facebook,
Instagram, Snapchat, Etc. In
dust
ry S
hifts
S-Curves Retail
Indu
stry
Shi
fts
Time Department Stores – Sears, JC Penney, Macys
Discount Stores - Walmart
Category Killers – Home Depot
Warehouse Stores - Costco
Online Retail - Amazon
S-Curves Automobiles - Technology
Indu
stry
Shi
fts
Time Electric vehicles
ICE – Daimler, Ford, GM
Advanced ICE - Toyota
Electric Vehicles - Tesla
Fuel Cells -- ???
S-Curves Automobiles – Customer outlay
Indu
stry
Shi
fts
Time Owning
Financing
Leasing
Sharing
S-Curves Automobiles - Mobility
Indu
stry
Shi
fts
Time Taxis
Daily/Weekly rentals - Hertz
Hourly rentals - Zipcar
On-demand rentals/sharing – Uber, Lyft…..Taxis (Didi Kuadi), Bla Bla Car
S-Curves Entertainment - Distribution
Time
Over the Air – NBS, CBS, ABC
Over Cable, Satellite, Telecom – Comcast, DirectTV, Dish,
AT&T, Verizon
Over the Top (OTT) – Netflix, Hulu, Youtube
Indu
stry
Shi
fts
S-Curves Computing - technology
Indu
stry
Shi
fts
Time Mainframes - IBM
Client-server – Sun, HP, IBM, Oracle, SAP, Etc.
Cloud – Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, IBM, HP,
SAP, Etc.
Workforce of the future – employees, independent contractors and dependent contractors?
Our time together focused on….
► Global demographic trends and workforce implications
► Economic trends driving a relook at workforce issues
► Technology trends reshaping the workforce and employer-
employee relations