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The Wrong Crystal Ball
Dr. Barry Blesser
Blesser Associates
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Modes of Discussion
*** Who Owns the Question? *** Pattern Recognition Language Vocabulary Paradigms Theories Speculations View from 1,000 ft vs 30,000 ft.
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Technology Business
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Technology Paradigm Shifts WW II Technology Impacts Society You Bet Your Company Development Size is Everything Redefinition of Barriers to Entry Shortened Lifetimes of Products No Low Hanging Fruits Technology as Commodity Quality as Discardable
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Classical Product Evolution Concept Invention Laboratory Prototype Professional Introduction Economic Manufacture Semi-Professional Consumer Model
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Paradigm Inversion Sony-Philips on CD development $600M for First Model Goal of High Volume Immediately $12 Incremental Cost Total System Development Partial Borrowing
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Acceleration of Life Cycles
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Misleading Growth
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Stages in Product Life Cycle
Innovation and product productivity vary during a thread’s life-stages:
Infancy Birth, rapid learning, uncertain future
Adolescent Others follow trend, energetic
innovation
Adulthood Mature product ranges, less innovation
Retirement Market for technology declines
Death Only antiquities remain
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Innovation (Practitioner View)
•Initially high rate of invention with few resources
•Resource grow, but rate of invention declines
•Resources decline with their related marketplace
0100200300400500600700800900
Infancy Adolescence Adulthood Retirement Death
Re
so
urc
es
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ra
te o
f In
ve
nti
onInnovation
Resource
Invention Rate
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Innovation (Patent View)
•Initially few patents, but with very wide scope
•Quantity of patents grows, but scope narrows
•Patents decline with their related marketplace
0100200300400500600700800
Infancy Adolescence Adulthood Retirement Death
Pat
ents
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pat
ent S
cope
Innovation
Patents
Scope
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Spawning of Child Threads
Main Thread - Low Productivity
Main Thread - Highly Productive
Weak threads lead to only a few narrow branches
Strong threads lead to many other threads
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Thread Life Times
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010LP Records Microphones
Some threads have longer lifetimes than others
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Thread Transitions
timetime
CourageCourage
Market attractivenessMarket attractivenessTechnology performanceTechnology performance
HopeHope ShockShockDenialDenial
RageRage
ActionActionMourningMourning
PridePride
AcceptanceAcceptance
Internal/Self Steering External Steering
SuccessSuccess
•New threads start prior to peak technical and market performance of previous threads
•Thread transitions are emotional challenges
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HiTech Commoditization Low Barrier to Entry Low Cost Similar Features-Function Many alternatives Low Margins Automated Manufacture Low Brand Loyalty
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Cultural Business
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Head Space Limits Total Buttons in Household Total Hidden Menus in Products Learning Time to Master Interest in Mastery Effort Personal Payback in Investment Competing Uses of Mental Effort
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Life Style Impact Direct Substitution of Equivalent Changes Family Dynamics Competes with Other Activities Economic Competition Time Competition Viewed as Consumable
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Business Model Cost of Development Product Life Sunk Cost for First Sale Engineering Risk Barriers to Entry Support Cost
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Redefined Quality Metrics
*** Meets Customers Expectation? *** Solves a Real Problem or Service Defects Irrelevant or Accepted Fits Reliability Model Market Sets Expectations Not a Technical Concept User Interface Burdens
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Added Value Check List Novel Functionality Brand Name Recognition Distribution Dominance User Friendly Learning Use Specialized Technology Perceived High Value
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Example: Home Computer High Sales Volume High Market Penetration Low Margins Packaging Business Model No Barriers to Entry Too Complex to Customize Pure Commodity
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Example: Home Theater Dominates Listening Room Connection Impact Flawed Source Material High Cost No Technical Barriers Branded, Licensed, or Patented
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Example: Home Network Installation Complexity Implies High Economic Cost On-site Technical Manager Large Scale Mass Acceptance vs Niche Solution DSL by Analogy
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Analysis Methods Personal Experience Bias Decade Bias - Cultural Evolution Failure of Introspection Cultural Patterns Dominate Use Real Social-Scientists Technology is a Subset of Culture
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Summary of Issues The Customer is Part of the Culture Cultural Drift and Patterns Anthropologic Evaluation of
Society Human Limits to Introspection Technology Waves not Linear We Do Not Choose Our Decade
The Right Crystal Ball
An Interdisciplinary Approach