Theme 4 - Carol Turley

WP13: “Uncertainties, risks and thresholds” - Carol Turley

WP14: “Dissemination, Exploitation and Management of Knowledge” - Carol Turley

WP13:Thresholds or “Tipping Points”

Little things can make a big differenceMajor change can happen rapidly

nonlinear, tipping

1. The tipping point is the critical point (threshold) in an evolving situation that leads to a new and irreversible development (state)

2. The term “tipping point” has been used to describe a change in the environment such that a different environment regime results

Level of confidenceUsing your best judgement, indicate the level of confidence that you feel can be placed in the scientific evidence presented in your submission.Please indicate which of the 9 squares your assessment best fits into. (based on the axes provided in the grid below). Where possible please consult with close colleagues working on this topic for their opinion. Please also refer to the ‘Rationale’ on the next slide

High

Moderate

Low

Low Moderate High

Amount of evidence(theory, observations or models)

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el o

f ag

reem

ent

or

con

sen

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Low

Medium

High

WP13 - The Final Outcome

WP13 will produce, in year 4, a final synthesis report:

• It will be in a format and language suitable for policy-makers

• It will identify thresholds, new states and risks to the marine environment of IPCC AR4 mitigation and non-mitigation scenarios and pathways to CO2 stabilisation

• It will identify potential feedback to climate and associated uncertainties and probabilities

WP14: Dissemination, Exploitation and Management

of Knowledge - Carol Turley

EPOCA will circumvent the hierarchical method of dissemination by:•dealing directly with policy makers through expert groups and committees •the formation of an EPOCA Reference User Group of stakeholders

Methods of Dissemination & Outreach:

• The EPOCA Website: a multifunctional web service for communication, information and education: http://epoca-project.eu/

• Scientific publications in international refereed journals and presentation at conferences

• Research seminars around core themes

• EPOCA Member Activities: on Policy Advisory Committees, Working Groups and Boards

• Formation of the EPOCA Reference User Group of Stakeholders

• Digital material (e.g. flyers and posters) will be available on the EPOCA web site for members to download, distribute and display to authorities, public bodies, agencies, institutions and organisations

• EPOCA Press releases linked to publication of key research findings and other media activities

USB sticks loaded with key material and publications on ocean acidification will be used to target key stakeholders e.g. RUG members

The EPOCA RUG Members

Randy WilliamsCanadian Tourism Industry Association

Chris WestUKCIP

David WelshRolls-Royce

Ed UrbanSCOR

Kristian TelekiUNEP-WCMC

David SantilloGreenpeace

Emily PidgeonConservation Internat.

Kevin NooneIGBP

Evin McGovernMarine Institute

Carl Gustaf LundinIUCN

Jane LubchencoClimate Central

Lynne HaleThe Natural Conservancy

Peter GullestadEuropean Union

Marc GilletONERC

Tony EspieBP

William M. EichbaumWWF

Gail CardewRoyal Institution

Valentina BosettiFEEM

John BaxterSNH

Dr Dan LaffoleyNE & IUCNChairman of RUG