Theme II: Fisheries DynamicsThe CIMAS Program

Jerry Ault

Manoj Shivlani

Monica Valle

Jim Bohnsack

Peter Ortner

Bill Richards

Contributors

David Die

Maria Criales

David Jones

Monica Lara

Goal 1: Protect, restore and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem management by:

Monitoring and observingUnderstanding and describingAssessing and predictingEngaging and informingManaging resources

Strategic Plan - FISHERIES

CIMASobjectivesfor theme II

1. Understanding and describing

2. Assessing andpredicting

3. Engaging andinforming

Describe functional bio-physical processes that control fishery impacts

Develop simulation models for protected species, ecosystems, and fisheries.

Develop procedures for the evaluation of regulatory options in management of marine fisheries and protected species

Strategic Plan - CIMAS Objectives

From Florida Bay to the Gulf of Guinea

                             

Sailfish catches (source ICCAT)

Recruitment tosouth Florida estuaries

Assessment of highly-migratorypelagic fish

1. Understanding and describing (Local scale)

Abundance of demersal zooplankton and small fishes

ADCP

OPC

ADCP

OPC

Continuous counting of particles for sizes between 100um to 10 cm:

• Migrations

• Diurnal patterns

• Tidal cycles

1. Understanding and describing (Regional scale)

Recruitment processes in South Florida

Certain elements can be incorporated into the matrix of fish otoliths. These elements form the elemental fingerprint unique to the water mass in which the fish resided and can be used for elucidating recruitment pathways for juvenile fish.

Whale Harbor Channel

O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J0

5

10

15

20

25

curr

ent m

agni

tude

inde

x

0

1

2

3

4

5countercurrentonshore current

0

100

200

300

400

m

ean

dens

itypo

stla

rvae

/100

0 m

3

97 98 99

1. Understanding and describing (Regional scale)

Shrimp Post-larval transport intoFlorida Bay

Peaks in the abundance of post-larvae coinciding with cyclonic eddies were detected passing through the Middle Florida Keys.Simulations highlight the importance of swimming behavior.

1. Understanding and describing (Regional scale)

Large Eddy, Small Eddy--Supplying Recruits to the South Florida Ecosystem

Contours of total fish larvae superimposed over

Sea Surface Height Model

The eddy process provides a potential mechanism forretention, nourishmentat the spawning groundand deliveryto the nursery areas

1. Understanding and describing (Basin scale)

Yellowfin tuna: effect of

uncertainty in fishery removals

1950-1979

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2B

rati

o

1950-1999

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Proportion reported

Bra

tio

Bratio = Bcurrent/Bmsy

Reporting of catch was assumed to have increased linearly in time.

Exploited Coral Reef Fishes

ye

llow

mo

uth

sp

eck

led

hin

d

sc

ho

olm

as

ter

sa

ilor’

s c

ho

ice

% S

paw

nin

g P

ote

nti

al R

atio

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

bla

ck

red

gra

ys

by

co

ne

yg

ag

na

ssa

uy

ello

wfi

n

red

hin

dro

ck h

ind

sc

amp

sn

ow

y

ye

llow

edg

ew

ars

aw

jew

fis

h

ho

gfi

sh

gra

ym

utt

on

ye

llow

tail

bla

ck

fin

cu

be

ra do

g

lan

e

bla

ck

red

sil

k

ve

rmil

lio

n

blu

es

trip

ed

wh

ite

tom

tate

mar

ga

te

ba

rra

cu

da

GROUPERSSNAPPERS GRUNTS

Overfishing (30% SPR)

Serial overfishing

in theFlorida Keys

2: Assessing and predicting (regional scale)

Combining fishery-independent andfishery-dependent data in the assessment of reef fishes

2: Assessing and predicting (regional scale)

Stock Assessment Scenarios for Caribbean Queen Conch

ASPIC B/Bmsy and F/Fmsy Ratios

at MSY=[1.0e5-1.7e5]

0

1

2

3

4

5

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Year

B/B

msy

& F

/Fm

sy F/Fmsy

B/Bmsy

Stocks of queen conch stock in the U.S. Caribbean are overfished and are undergoing overfishing.

2: Assessing and predicting (Basin scale)

ICCAT assessments: billfish, tropical tunas

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1970 1990 2010Year

B/B

msy

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

F/F

msy

White marlin

3. Engaging and informing (Regional scale)

Effects of No-Take Zones on Reef Fish

populations inthe Florida Keys National Marine

Sanctuary

Population Density Trends

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5

Years After Protection

Popu

latio

n C

hang

e Fa

ctor

Yellowtail

All Grouper

Black Grouper

Gray Snapper

Stoplight

Striped Parrot

Framework for Management Strategy Evaluation

Develop software for simulations of fishery systems to evaluate management strategies

3. Engaging and informing (Basin scale)

Compliance

Stock

CatchFleets Samples

Stock

TACCatch

Commission

Center for Independent Experts

Develop a system to provide independent peer reviews of the science carried out by the NOAA Fisheries to strengthen Quality Assurance efforts under the NOAA Strategic Plan.

1

2

3

4

5N

um

be

r o

f re

vie

ws

1999 2000 2001Year

Programmatic Stock Assessment

Endangered Species

The CIE is evolving to cover all areas of science conducted by NOAA

Fisheries

3. Engaging and informing

Theme II: new horizons

• Develop quantitative socio-economic indicators for fisheries sustainability (link to Theme IV)

• Link estuary models to those from the reef ecosystem (link to Theme III) • Integrate basin scale oceanographic model to assessments of highly migratory species