Theory and Hands On: Habitat Risk Assessment

Katie Arkema, Joey Bernhardt, Gregg Verutes

Goals for this session

• Gain an understanding of science behind the model

• Understand the data you need to run the model and practice running it yourself

• Share examples of how the model can be used to meet management and conservation goals

Habitats

Habitats provide services Habitat for fisheries Recreational opportunities Storm protection

Halpern et al 2008

Risk to habitat structure and function

Scenarios ServicesHabitat Risk

Questions the model can answer

• Which habitats are most at risk and where?

• What types of management options may be useful for reducing risk?

• Where may human activities create trade-offs among environmental services by posing risk high enough to compromise habitat structure and function?

Final output

habitat risk ecosystem risk

• Cumulative impact mapping (Halpern et al 2008)

• InVEST Habitat Quality model• Risk assessment literature

Related models and approaches

Human health, safety engineering, oil, military, aerospace Fisheries science

HIGH RISK

Cons

eque

nce

Exposure

What do we mean by risk?

• Where is the ice in relation to my car and me?

• Has the ground been sanded?

• Is the ice just thin and patchy or more dangerous?

Should I walk over the ice to my car?

• If I fall, how bad will my injury be?

• Am I young and resilient or old? Will I break an arm or leg?

• Am I wearing high heels or snow boots?

Exposure Consequence

CriteriaExposureSpatial overlapTemporal overlapIntensityManagement effectiveness

ConsequenceChange in areaChange in structureFrequency of natural disturbanceNatural mortalityRecruitmentAge at maturity/recovery timeConnectivity

Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al. 2007

Criteria RatingsExposureSpatial overlapTemporal overlapIntensityManagement effectiveness

ConsequenceChange in areaChange in structureFrequency of natural disturbanceNatural mortalityRecruitmentAge at maturity/recovery timeConnectivity

Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al. XXXPatrick et al 2010, Hobday et al 2007

Criteria RatingsExposureSpatial overlapTemporal overlapIntensityManagement effectiveness

ConsequenceChange in areaChange in structureFrequency of natural disturbanceNatural mortalityRecruitmentAge at maturity/recovery timeConnectivity

3123

3323112

Weighted average data quality importance

Weighted average data quality importance

3123

3323112

Calculate risk

Outputs – Risk mapsWhere is risk highest?

cumulative habitat risk ecosystem risk

R I S K T OS E A G R A S S

Outputs - Risk hotspotsWhere may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future?

R I S K T OC O R A L S

R I S K T OM A N G R O V E S

H a b i t a t R i s k A s s e s s m e n t

H i g hL o w M e d i u m

Outputs – Risk plotsStrategies for reducing risk

EXPOSURE

(exogenous: management, intensity, timing etc)

Consequence(endogenous: regeneration, connectivity etc)

HIGH RISK

LOW RISK

Intensive intervention: if this area overlaps with high benefits, then limit damaging uses and restore here

Monitor and prepare for climate stressors etc.

Low intensity intervention

Develop uses here

Applications

• Belize – coastal zone management plan• WCVI – site activities, trade-offs among

services

Coastal zone management plan for Belize

Draft zoning plans• current uses• future uses• stakeholder engagement• reports

HIGH RISK

Cons

eque

nce

EXPOSURE

Risk to habitats• coral• mangroves• seagrass

Fisheries

Coastal protection

Tourism opportunities

Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials

H a b i t a t R i s k A s s e s s m e n t

H i g hL o w M e d i u m

RISK TOSEAGRASS

H i g hR i s kA r e a(km2)

6 . 4 4 5 6 . 1 0 9 8 . 7 0

Outputs - Risk hotspotsWhere may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future?

Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 supporting serviceTerrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 that quantifies service

Coastal Vulnerability

Coastal Protection

Overlap Analysis

Renewable Energy

Habitat Risk Assessment; Biodiversity

Reservoir Hydropower Production

Sediment Retention

Managed Timber

Production

Crop Pollination

Water Purification

Marine model: Tier 1 that quantifies serviceMarine model: Tier 0

Marine model: Tier 1 supporting service

InVE

ST M

odel

s & L

inka

ges

AestheticQuality

Recreation

Carbon Storage &

Sequestration

(Blue Carbon)

Agricultural Production

Flood Risk Mitigation

Groundwater Recharge

Fisheries (including

recreational)

AquacultureMarine Water

Quality

Optional model linkage, no sequencingRequired/optional model linkage, sequencing needed

Model coming soon!

What types of decisions could the HRA model inform?

Decision Context GeographyMarine Spatial Planning WCVI

Coastal Zone Management Belize

Identification of indicators for ecosystem-based management

Puget Sound

Climate adaptation (ecosystem-based adaptation)

Monterey Bay

Data requirements• Shapefiles for all habitats• Shapefiles for all stressors• Criteria rating table

Break for hands-on session

Future Ecosystem Risk (cumulative risk to all habitats)

You have a risk map! Now what?

Which stressors pose the greatest risk?

Where are the risk hotspots?

Where will there be trade-offs among activities?

1.

2.

3.

Which stressors pose the greatest risk?

Where are the risk hotspots?

Where will there be trade-offs among activities?

1.

2.

3.

28

Forestry Recreation and tourism Shellfish harvestEelgrass restoration

New resort

New clearcuts

New shellfish tenures

Eelgrass restoration

Sketch out possible futures

Shellfish harvest, tourism

Habitat extent

Effects on other services that depend on healthy habitats?

Future Ecosystem Risk (cumulative risk to all habitats)

Trade-offs among services

31

Population centers

Macoah

Identify unexpected consequences and trade-offs

Now you know where the risk hotspots are,

and which stressors are

driving them…how

can you prioritize your management?

EXPOSURE

(exogenous: management, intensity, timing etc)

CONSEQUENCE(endogenous: regeneration, connectivity etc)

LOW RISK

Develop uses here

Intensive intervention: limit damaging uses and restore here, esp. if overlap with important benefits

Monitor and prepare for climate stressors etc.

Low intensity intervention

Move shellfish tenures away from population centers

Restore eelgrass in high risk, high benefit locations

Space matters: reduce incompatibilities by shifting activities in space

Back to the big picture

InVEST HRA can:

1. Screen the risk of current and future stressors.

2. Prioritize management where it’s most needed and effective.

3. Identify trade-offs among ecosystem services.

Take-away messages

Floathomes

Shellfish tenures

Value ($)2,209 - 44,640

44,641 - 87,072

87,073 - 129,503

129,504 - 171,935

Floathomes

Shellfish tenures

Value ($)2,209 - 44,640

44,641 - 87,072

87,073 - 129,503

129,504 - 171,935

Ecosystem risk<VALUE>

1.24 - 2.80

2.80 - 4.35

4.35 - 5.91

Float homes and shellfish tenures in Lemmens Inlet

Floathomes

Shellfish tenures

Value ($)2,209 - 44,640

44,641 - 87,072

87,073 - 129,503

129,504 - 171,935

Ecosystem risk<VALUE>

1.24 - 2.80

2.80 - 4.35

4.35 - 5.91

Risk to ecosystems from float homes and oyster farms

Future directions

• Ability to modify criteria• Functionality to calculate habitat connectivity• Spatial variation in criteria – esp. intensity,

management effectiveness• Expand sample data• Other ideas?

Acknowledgements

Marine TeamGreg Guannel, Anne Guerry, Mary Ruckelshaus, Jess Silver, Jodie

Toft, Spencer Wood