There is much talk of ‘peak oil’ and ‘environmental pollution’,There is much talk of ‘peak oil’ and ‘environmental pollution’,but almost nothing said of ‘peak population’.but almost nothing said of ‘peak population’.

The map that is in the background to these slides shows population movementsThe map that is in the background to these slides shows population movementsfrom the United Kingdom of those currently alive.from the United Kingdom of those currently alive.

Go back in time 2000 years and this is how human beings were distributed globally.Go back in time 2000 years and this is how human beings were distributed globally.Here area is drawn in proportion to population.Here area is drawn in proportion to population.

Year 0

500 years ago almost none of these countries existed.500 years ago almost none of these countries existed.Note how large Africa was before mass slavery.Note how large Africa was before mass slavery.

Year 1500

One hundred years ago European population peaked,One hundred years ago European population peaked,24 years after condoms were widely publicised.24 years after condoms were widely publicised.

Year 1900

Fifty years ago the contraceptive pill was first used in affluent countries.Fifty years ago the contraceptive pill was first used in affluent countries.Everywhere population growth was slowing.Everywhere population growth was slowing.

Year 1960

Eight years ago a majority of people in the world were living in countriesEight years ago a majority of people in the world were living in countrieswith below-replacement fertility.with below-replacement fertility.

Year 2002

In just over forty years time the world population is predicted by the UN to start declining.In just over forty years time the world population is predicted by the UN to start declining.This is where people will be then.This is where people will be then.

Year 2050

Africa continues to grow until 2300Africa continues to grow until 2300while worldwide population falls according to the UN central projections.while worldwide population falls according to the UN central projections.

Year 2300

For the first time since plague world population is about to shrink:For the first time since plague world population is about to shrink:So it does quickly in EuropeSo it does quickly in Europe

This is how people were distributed in EuropeThis is how people were distributed in Europewhen population growth was highest, and began to slowwhen population growth was highest, and began to slow

Year 1900: Wealth and CondomsPopulation Peak in Europe: Falling fertility since 1877Population Peak in Europe: Falling fertility since 1877

The 1960s baby boom,The 1960s baby boom,the children of the 1946 boom, the grandchildren of the 1919 boom, are the last.the children of the 1946 boom, the grandchildren of the 1919 boom, are the last.

Year 1960: The PillFinal baby boomFinal baby boom

Today Europe relies on immigrationToday Europe relies on immigrationto maintain population, services and its plurality.to maintain population, services and its plurality.

Year 2002: NowadaysDiminishing Europe...Diminishing Europe...

Even with continued immigration at current levelsEven with continued immigration at current levelsEurope will shrink in its global population shareEurope will shrink in its global population share

Year 2050: World Peak Population...and expanding Africa...and expanding Africa

It is a waste of built infrastructure to plan for Europe to shrink.It is a waste of built infrastructure to plan for Europe to shrink.The future will probably look very different to this.The future will probably look very different to this.

Year 2300: Furthest PredictionsGlobal StabilityGlobal Stability

The United Kingdom is currently home toThe United Kingdom is currently home to1% of the world’s adults but only half a percent of children.1% of the world’s adults but only half a percent of children.

There are two billion children in the world –There are two billion children in the world –these are future carers of the oldthese are future carers of the old

A Children’s WorldMap of the World’s ChildrenMap of the World’s Children

The very oldest people are concentrated in just a few of the richest countries –The very oldest people are concentrated in just a few of the richest countries –often those with the least childrenoften those with the least children

An aged WorldMap of the 100 year oldsMap of the 100 year olds

Future population balance will depend primarilyFuture population balance will depend primarilyon population migration.on population migration.

This maps shows where all the peopleThis maps shows where all the peoplewho have crossed international borders since birth now live.who have crossed international borders since birth now live.

International Immigrants

This map shows where all the peopleThis map shows where all the peoplewho have crossed international borders since birth were born.who have crossed international borders since birth were born.

International Emigrants

This map shows how many extra people those countriesThis map shows how many extra people those countrieswhich gain from migration receive.which gain from migration receive.

Net Immigration

This map shows how many people those countriesThis map shows how many people those countrieswhich lose population are losing.which lose population are losing.

Net Emigration

Each country in the world experiences a different storyEach country in the world experiences a different storythat reflects its historythat reflects its history

Within each country people concentrate in particular areasWithin each country people concentrate in particular areasand are leaving other partsand are leaving other parts

Where they areThe world’s ‘real’ population distributionThe world’s ‘real’ population distribution

Within the United Kingdom in recent decadesWithin the United Kingdom in recent decadespopulation growth has been constrained to the south of England.population growth has been constrained to the south of England.

Where they areUK’s ‘real’ population distributionUK’s ‘real’ population distribution

Only eight urban areas in Great Britain are substantially built upOnly eight urban areas in Great Britain are substantially built upat much lower density than most major European citiesat much lower density than most major European cities

High density living is rareAdministrative extent of major urban areas in BritainAdministrative extent of major urban areas in Britain

Lack of investment in rail and too much motorway buildingLack of investment in rail and too much motorway buildinghas increased social polarised urban sprawlhas increased social polarised urban sprawl

Sprawl: Encouraged by infrastructureMajor road network in BritainMajor road network in Britain

The spatial concentration of a bloated finance industry skewed population growthThe spatial concentration of a bloated finance industry skewed population growthtowards the south in England as well as Wales and Scotland.towards the south in England as well as Wales and Scotland.

Southern population concentrationBankers in BritainBankers in Britain

The places that lost out most in recent years in terms of wealth, health, population influx and The places that lost out most in recent years in terms of wealth, health, population influx and now (un)employment were those in the north and in inner cities.now (un)employment were those in the north and in inner cities.

Areas currently losing out in BritainLabour votes at the 2005 general electionLabour votes at the 2005 general election

Parts of Britain are now home toParts of Britain are now home toone of the most diverse pluralities of people in Europe.one of the most diverse pluralities of people in Europe.

Born abroad7.5% of people living in Britain were born abroad7.5% of people living in Britain were born abroad

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/uk/05/born_abroad/html/overview.stm

In equal number to those arriving, Britains move abroad.In equal number to those arriving, Britains move abroad.People leave in greater numbers during recessions.People leave in greater numbers during recessions.

Going abroadMore than 400,000 people left the UK in 2007More than 400,000 people left the UK in 2007

The environmental impact of emigrantsThe environmental impact of emigrantsis much greater than immigrants – in total.is much greater than immigrants – in total.

Migration PatternsMigration flows from and to the United Kingdom in 2006Migration flows from and to the United Kingdom in 2006

Emigrants from the UKImmigrants to the UK

Among the countries in Europe, the United Kingdom currently has fewer residents born Among the countries in Europe, the United Kingdom currently has fewer residents born abroad than Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland – abroad than Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland – and also fewer than Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand.and also fewer than Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand.

The United KingdomA crossroad in the world’s demographic changeA crossroad in the world’s demographic change

““Now, for the first time in human history, a majority of people worldwide can read what you Now, for the first time in human history, a majority of people worldwide can read what you write. Some five out of every six children in the world are now taught to read and write to a write. Some five out of every six children in the world are now taught to read and write to a degree that only a minority of their parents were; a majority of their children will probably degree that only a minority of their parents were; a majority of their children will probably have internet access. A hundred million young adults worldwide are now allowed to study in have internet access. A hundred million young adults worldwide are now allowed to study in the hallowed halls of universities each year. Education may still be hugely unjust in how it is the hallowed halls of universities each year. Education may still be hugely unjust in how it is distributed and may be in some ways becoming more unjustly allocated, but there are many distributed and may be in some ways becoming more unjustly allocated, but there are many more people alive in the world today who have been given the freedom to learn right through more people alive in the world today who have been given the freedom to learn right through to college. This is not just many more than before, it is many more than all those before to college. This is not just many more than before, it is many more than all those before combined; more humans alive today have been to university than all the human beings who combined; more humans alive today have been to university than all the human beings who have ever gone. The forebears of today’s university graduates almost all became part of a have ever gone. The forebears of today’s university graduates almost all became part of a tiny elite, in some way governing others and being rewarded with riches as a result. Only a tiny elite, in some way governing others and being rewarded with riches as a result. Only a very small minority of today’s university graduates can become rich; there are simply far too very small minority of today’s university graduates can become rich; there are simply far too many now for all but a tiny fraction to be very wealthy, or to have much power, or both. Why many now for all but a tiny fraction to be very wealthy, or to have much power, or both. Why should we expect the rest to accept this situation placidly? Fortunately, and far from should we expect the rest to accept this situation placidly? Fortunately, and far from coincidently, human population growth is peaking at exactly the same time as our literacy coincidently, human population growth is peaking at exactly the same time as our literacy and understanding explodes. It is not hard to be pessimistic, but it is also not hard to be an and understanding explodes. It is not hard to be pessimistic, but it is also not hard to be an optimist too given the circumstances we now find ourselves in.”optimist too given the circumstances we now find ourselves in.”((From Daniel Dorling: "Injustice: why social inequality persists, Bristol: Policy Press, April 2010“From Daniel Dorling: "Injustice: why social inequality persists, Bristol: Policy Press, April 2010“ ))

• Slideshow based on a talk given by Danny Dorling atThe Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution

Study on the Environmental Impacts of Demographic Change in the UK• All maps created by the Worldmapper team, most of which can be found online at

www.worldmapper.org• Slides created by Benjamin Hennig

Further reading suggestions:Further reading suggestions:

Magnason, A. S. (2008). Dreamland: A Self-Help Manual for a Frightened Nation.Magnason, A. S. (2008). Dreamland: A Self-Help Manual for a Frightened Nation.London, Citizen Press Ltd.London, Citizen Press Ltd.

http://www.dustormagic.net/EqualityWhen/SocialBarriersToSustainability.htmlhttp://www.dustormagic.net/EqualityWhen/SocialBarriersToSustainability.html

http://www.dustormagic.net/NOII/TooManyOfWhomJan10.htmlhttp://www.dustormagic.net/NOII/TooManyOfWhomJan10.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/apr/20/food-carbon-emissionshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/apr/20/food-carbon-emissions

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/01/population-crash-fred-pearcehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/01/population-crash-fred-pearce

Credits