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    , 116, 2011, . 89-115

    .

    Theres class warfare, all right, but its my class, the rich class,

    thats making war, and were winning

    Warren Buffet,New York Times, 26-11-2006

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    1994 77 79.9

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    1998 111.9 118.4

    1999 118.6 126.2

    2000 141 136.3

    2001 151.9 146.4

    2002 159.2 156.6

    2003 168 172.4

    2004 183.2 185.3

    2005 195.4 194.8

    2006 224.2 211.3

    2007 239.4 227.1

    2008 262.3 236.9

    2009 298.7 235.0

    2010 328.6 230.2

    2011 351.5 222.8

    2012 375.8 226.2

    AMECO, ( ,

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    107

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    Economic Ideas, XVI/2008/3, pp. 21-48.8Nesweek, 13 , 2008.9Gros, D. and C. Alcidi (2010) The European experience with large scal adjustments, CEPS Eco-

    nomic Report.

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    108 .

    -

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    1: 1994-2020

    1994 2020. 2010 .

    2012 Eurostat (AMECO, 13/5/2011),

    2013

    ( -

    2011):

    4

    1994-2020

    (%)

    -

    (%)

    -

    (%)

    (%)

    1994 36.3 32.1 12.4 14.3 1.4 13.4 96.4

    1995 36.7 34.5 11.2 13.1 2.0 12.1 97.01996 37.4 33.6 10.5 11.9 4.5 9.9 99.4

    1997 39.0 35.6 9.3 10.3 0.9 10.7 96.6

    1998 40.5 36.2 8.2 9.2 1.9 8.7 94.5

    1999 41.3 37.0 7.4 8.3 2.2 6.6 94.0

    2000 43.0 39.3 7.3 8.4 12.7 8.0 103.5

    2001 40.9 38.8 6.5 6.7 3.0 7.4 103.7

    2002 40.3 39.5 5.5 5.7 -0.1 7.0 101.7

    2003 39.0 39.8 4.9 5.3 -0.5 10.1 97.4

    2004 38.1 40.7 5.0 5.5 0.6 7.4 98.9

    2005 38.6 39.3 4.4 4.7 1.1 5.2 100.3

    2006 39.2 40.5 4.3 4.7 7.9 8.5 106.1

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    109

    2007 40.0 41.9 4.4 4.5 0.3 7.5 105.4

    2008 39.9 44.7 4.9 4.9 -0.1 4.3 110.7

    2009 37.3 47.6 5.1 4.6 0.0 -0.8 127.1

    2010 39.1 44.0 5.6 4.3 2.5 -2.1 142.82011 40.2 43.0 6.7 4.5 0.8 -3.2 157.7

    2012 40.2 42.1 7.4 4.8 1.5 1.5 166.2

    2013 42,0 38,5 8,3 -0,8 5,4 2,9 157,7

    2014 39,3 33,2 8,7 -1,9 5,7 3,3 153,4

    2015 38,5 32,2 8,5 -0,3 5,7 3,3 150,3

    2016 38,1 32,0 8,2 0,1 5,7 4,1 146,6

    2017 37,7 31,7 8,2 0,1 5,8 4,2 143,0

    2018 37,3 31,3 8,1 0,1 5,9 4,5 139,0

    2019 36,9 30,9 8,0 0,1 6,0 4,8 134,7

    2020 36,5 30,5 7,6 0,1 5,9 4,8 130,2

    -

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    .

    10 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1168.pdf, . 57.

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    111

    .11 ,

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    2006-2009 2010

    2010.

    5

    % %

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    2010

    2010

    2010

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    2007 -6.4 -5.1 105.0 95.7

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    : Eurostat, 15/11/2010

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  • 7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r

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    112 .

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    Swaps Goldman Shacks,

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    114 .

    -

    :

    1 1 1

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    D D B T R D DY Y Y Y Y

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    :

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    (1 ) (1 ) 1

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    t t t t t t t t t

    t t t t

    t tt

    t t t t t t t

    t t t t t

    t t

    R D D RDY Y Y Y

    R Y Y D R Y Y Y D

    Y Y Y Y

    Y YR

    Y D R g D R g

    Y Y Y Y g

    Y Y

    + + = =

    + = = =

    = = = +

    1

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    .13

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    .14

    :

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    1

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    1

    1

    11

    t t t t t t t

    t t t t t

    t t t t t t t

    t t t t t

    t t t t t t

    t t t t

    D D B T R g D

    Y Y Y g Y

    D B T R g D D

    Y Y g Y Y

    D B T R g D

    Y Y g Y

    = + +

    = + + +

    = + + +

    .15

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    115

    , ,

    (

    -

    ):

    1

    1

    1

    1t t t t t t

    t t t t t

    D B T R D SF

    Y Y g Y Y

    + = + + +

    .16

    ,

    :

    11

    1t

    t t t t t t

    Rd b t d sf

    g +

    = + ++ .17

    ,

    .

    11

    ,

    , gt:

    1 1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    t t t t t t t

    t t t t

    t t t t

    t t t t

    t t t t

    t t t t t

    D D B T R D SF

    D D E SF

    D E D SF

    Y Y Y Y

    D E D SF

    Y Y g Y Y

    = + +

    = +

    = + +

    = + ++

    .18

    11

    1t t t t td e d sf

    g = + +

    + .19

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    , 116, 2011, . 117-144

    :

    ;

    2

    , .

    1.

    114 -

    , -

    .

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    120 , .

    .

    110% 2007 -

    156% 2012 ( )

    (

    )

    2008.

    2009 -

    .2

    .

    (..

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    . , , -

    2008 -

    ( ). ,

    ,

    , 24,5

    , 7,75% 2009 (. 2,

    , -

    ).

    (swap) Goldman Shacks -

    2009 2,26%

    . . .).

    2.1. ,

    , -

    . 3 -

    2 -

    2010, . 21, 37.3 -

    -

    .

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    121

    :

    (1)

    gt ()

    .t - t.

    -

    , ,

    1

    ,

    g 1/(1+g)-

    1994 36.3 44.6 -8.3 13.4 0.88 1.4 96.4

    1995 36.7 45.7 -9.1 12.1 0.89 2.0 97.0

    1996 37.4 44.1 -6.6 9.9 0.91 4.5 99.4

    1997 39.0 44.9 -5.9 10.7 0.90 0.9 96.6

    1998 40.5 44.3 -3.8 8.7 0.92 1.9 94.5

    1999 41.3 44.4 -3.1 6.6 0.94 2.2 94.0

    2000 43.0 46.6 -3.7 8.0 0.93 12.7 103.5

    2001 40.9 45.3 -4.5 7.4 0.93 3.0 103.7

    2002 40.3 45.0 -4.8 7.0 0.93 -0.1 101.7

    2003 39.0 44.7 -5.6 10.1 0.91 -0.5 97.4

    2004 38.1 45.6 -7.5 7.4 0.93 0.6 98.9

    2005 38.6 43.8 -5.2 5.2 0.95 1.1 100.3

    2006 39.2 44.9 -5.7 8.5 0.92 7.9 106.1

    2007 40.0 46.3 -6.4 7.5 0.93 0.3 105.4

    2008 39.9 49.6 -9.8 4.3 0.96 -0.1 110.7

    2009 37.3 52.7 -15.4 -0.8 1.01 0.0 127.1

    2010 39.1 49.6 -10.5 -2.1 1.02 2.5 142.8

    2011 40.2 49.7 -9.5 -3.2 1.03 0.8 157.7

    2012 40.2 49.5 -9.3 1.5 0.99 1.5 166.2

    : AMECO, EcoFin.

    .

    1

    1

    .1 * 1

    t t t t t

    t t t t t t

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    124 , .

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  • 7/25/2019 Theseis 116 Greece Debt_r

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    128 , .

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    ec.europa.eu/ cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-DU-07-001/EN/KS-DU-07-001-EN.PDF, http://epp.eurostat.

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