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Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
1
University of Pannonia
Doctoral School of Management Sciences and
Business Administration
Neumanné Virág Ildikó
Impacts of the integration on trade of EU members- a
a gravity model approach
PhD Thesis Summary
Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Elekes Andrea
Veszprém
2014
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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Table of contents
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3
2. Subjects and aims of the research ....................................................................................... 3
3. Research questions, research model.................................................................................. 4
Structure of the dissertation .................................................................................................... 5
4. Methodology of the research............................................................................................... 8
The gravity model .................................................................................................................. 8
Theory of gravity model in international trade ...................................................................... 8
Content of the model ............................................................................................................ 10
Structure of gravity model, data analysis ............................................................................. 10
Data ...................................................................................................................................... 12
Panels ................................................................................................................................... 12
Difference in differences technique ..................................................................................... 13
5. The main results of the research, theses ............................................................................ 13
6. Conclusion, further research ............................................................................................. 20
Own Publications ................................................................................................................. 24
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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1. Introduction
The most expedient economic factor in pushing economies into integration is international
trade. Significant changes in regional trade patterns have prompted economists to pay more
attention to the development of theoretical considerations and empirical approaches which
would enable them to explore international trade flows and the role played by regional
integration in the development of bilateral trade relations between countries.
The European Union now having 281 members has reached though its unified market and
monetary union a high degree of economic integration. This is a unique process not only in
Europe but also in the world, since there has not been any such integrative cooperation yet to
go as far as that. New, common policies have been elaborated in the EU, which have
gradually expanded along with the deepening of the integration. As a logical consequence of
the integrative process the common trade policy has become one of the decisive policies of
the integration, showing the uniform external economic attitude of the EU towards the
countries outside its borders.
The EU enlargement not only resulted in free trade between the EU-12 and the EU-15, it also
changed the EU-12s trade policy in relation to the rest of the world. On accession to the EU
the new member states were required to apply the common external tariff of the EU, including
the preferential access to developing countries and other preferential trade partners which is
part of the ‘acquis communautaire’. In most cases this represented a liberalisation of trade
policy (Avery and Cameron, 1998 and Buch and Piazolo, 2001). This trade opening would in
any event be expected to foster trade as its costs fall (Bchir et al., 2003).
2. Subjects and aims of the research
The purpose of the thesis is to model the trade of the European Union, to analyse the effects
of EU enlargement in the period between 2000 and 2010 by means of a gravitational model,
as well as to estimate and measure the commercial growth as a consequence of the opening up
of the trade in the EU. It was also the aim of the present dissertation to measure and quantify
the extent of the commercial change during the European integration. I analysed the
behaviour of bilateral trade flows rade flow between the EU-15 members and the EU-12
countries.
International trade flows are often considered to be indicators of links between the economic
centres of the region, thus representing links between the economic and spatial concepts.
Therefore the approach based on implementing the law of gravity for the study of
international trade flows has been widely used in recent years. The previous studies have
shown that the gravity equation is the most successful model for explaining regional trade
patterns.
1 Croatia joined in 2013,but does not take part in the analysis.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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The gravity model is a mathematical model based on analogy with Newton’gravitational law
which has been used to analyse spatial interaction beteen two or more points like the gravity
in phisycs. Gravity model based studies have achieved empirical success in explaining various
types of flows, including migration, commuting, goods, money capital information and
international trade. The model is convenient as an examination tool for many reasons such as
simplicity, high explanatory ability and improved econometrics.
The gravity model of international trade was developed independently by Jan Tinbergen
(1962).It is a multivariate linear regression model accepted modeling bilateral and regional
trade used for analysing cross section and panel data.
3. Research questions, research model
This researchs intends to examine the following questions.
K1: Is the gravity model well suited to the trade database of EU countries between 2000 and
2010, compiled by me? Can it be applied to predict the EU's trade? What is the explanatory
power of the parameters, can they converge to the expected value, and are they significant or
not?
K2: Can the EU trade be analyzed by gravity model? Can the trade enhance, trade creation
and trade aversion be outlined?
K3: Can a sectoral database of trade flows between sectors be compiled which is suitable to
build up a model? What can be concluded for the homogenous and differentiated goods?
K4: Are there any trade barriers in EU trade? Could the impact of these barriers pointed out?
My research hypotheses are the following:
Figure1. Research model
Source: Own compilation
H1:. The impact of trade expansion of EU integration in the period of 2000-2010 can be characterized with gravity model. The new entrant countries (EU-12) have increased trade not only with the EU member countries but also towards outsiders.
H2: The trade diverting effect of EU integration can be measured as far as third countries are concerned.
H3 : The positive infuence of high-quality institutions on bilateral trade flows can be detected.
H4: The distance coefficient of homogenous goods and goods with higher shipping costs is greater within EU integration
H5 : On basis of the database of trade flows between sectors the trade-reducing effect of the remaining obstacles (TBT) can be justified.
H6:The European economic space has not changed as a result of the new members' accession.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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H1: The impact of trade expansion of EU integration in the period of 2000-2010 can be
characterized with gravity model. The new entrant countries (EU-12) have increased trade
not only with the EU member countries but also towards outsiders.I assumed the trade-
creation effect.
H2: The trade diverting effect of EU integration can be measured as far as third countries
are concerned. I assume that estimating with gravity model the trade diverting effect of EU
integration as far as third countries concerned can be measured.
H3: The positive influence of high-quality institutions on bilateral trade flows can be
detected.
My thesis combines and extends the empirical literature on institutions, trade and European
integration by asking if the adjustment of the EU-12's institutional framework to that of the
EU-15 might give rise to a further potential in trade between the old and the new member
countries. Using the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF), I employ a gravity model to estimate
the impact of the index on bilateral trade.
H4: The distance coefficient of homogenous goods andgoods with higher shipping costs is
greater within EU integration.
In order to evaluate the EU economic integration effects across sectors, I build up a sectoral
gravity model which allows us to capture the implicit benefits of EU trade, by controlling for
the explicit determinants of trade.
H5: On basis of the database of trade flows between sectors the trade-reducing effect of the
remaining obstacles (TBT) can be justified.
The trade within Europe is still impeded by significant barriers to trade. In particular, there
remained many non-tariff barriers (Török-Deli, 2004), including so-called "technical barriers
to trade”, such as health and safety requirements. These barriers result from regulations that
affect the sale of goods in some markets .With intra-EU tariff barriers having been completely
eliminated by 1968, technical barriers have become increasingly visible.
H6: The European economic space has not changed as a result of the new members
accession.
Using parameters estimated by the gravity model I assumed and analyzed the potentials of
EU forcefield reorganization after enlargement.
Structure of the dissertation
The organization of the article is as follows. The first chapter is the introduction and will
present the hypotheses that are tested at a later stage in order to answer the research question.
The second chapter deals with regionalism and multilateralism. The question is whether
regionalism may be a faster way to reach multilateralism or, rather, hurt multilateral
liberalization and tend to regard regionalism as a complement to multilateralism. I show
studies, empirical literature focusing on the trade impacts of regional trade agreements and
multilateral liberalization.The third chapter briefly reviews the different theoretical
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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foundations of the gravity equation and the data collecting and database compiling procedure.
I will describe the data, the variables used and the specifications of the model I am adopting.
The fourth chapter deals with the descriptives statistics of EU trade. In the fifth chapter I
present an empirical analysis based on panel data of EU countries in order to check for the
above discussed theories with a specific focus on the trade effects of EU membership and the
predicted trade effects for the EU entrants with gravity model.My results will be presented in
this section with regard to the typology of EU trade creations. In the sixth chapter I analyze
the potentials of EU forcefield reorganization after enlargement using parameters value
estimations by the cross section gravity model. In order to evaluate the EU economic
integration effects across sectors, in the seventh chapter I build up a sectoral gravity model
which allows us to capture the implicit benefits of EU trade and the trade reducing effect of
TBT coefficient.
In the final eigth chapter, the main results and consequences are summarized.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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Figure 2. Structure of the dissertation
Source: Own compilation
Impacts of the integration on trade of EU members: a gravity model approach
Literature survey
Multilateral liberalisation
Regional liberalization
(Theories of integrations)
EU trade
Non trade barriers ,
surveys on TBT
estimations
Data and methodology
The gravity model
Theory,the gravity model of international
trade
Data collection, panel data
structure between 2000-2010
1.Trade within EU
2.Export from EU to the world
3. Import from EU to the world
4. Trade within EU in sectors
EU trade model between 2000-2010
Cross section and panel estimations
Estimation of the effects integration
OLS,Fixed effect,Random effects model
Impacts of institutions on EU
trad
Potential space of EU (potential
model)
EU sector trade gravity model
Estimation of Coefficients
Estimation of TBT coefficient
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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4. Methodology, data source of the research
The gravity model
With its origins in Isaac Newton’s law of gravity, the model posits that trade between two
countries is directly proportional to the “gravitational” pull of their respective national
incomes (GDP), and inversely proportional to the distance between them. Newton’s law states
that the attraction force between two bodies is directly related to their size and inversely
related to the distance between them. Thus, interaction (Fij ) between entities i and j is a
function of repulsive forces at i and attractive forces at j, and an inverse function of distance
(or friction) (dij) between i and j. Analytically, the basic equation that is used to express the
gravity hypothesis on trade flows between origin i and destination j is:
in which: Fij represents exports from origin i to destination j, f is a constant of proportionality,
mi and mj express the sizes of origin i and destination j, dij represents spatial separation
between each origin i and each destination j and b is the so-called distance decay parameter,
measuring the flow sensibility to spatial separation.
The gravity law based approach has been widely used in the social sciences. Thus, a gravity
model is a mathematical model based on analogy with Newton’s gravitational law which has
been used to account for aggregate human behaviour related to spatial interaction (see Send
and Smith, 1995). Gravity model based studies have achieved empirical success in explaining
various types of inter-regional and international flows, including labour migration,
commuting, customers and international trade.
The gravity model of trade in international economics, similar to other gravity
models in social science, predicts bilateral trade flows based on the economic sizes(often
using GDP measurements) and distance between two units. There are two basic areas of the
application of gravitational models based on physical analogy: the spatial flow analysis, and
the demarcation of catchment areas.
Theory of gravity model in international trade
The gravity model is an instrument which enables statistical analysis of flows and patterns
with bilateral trade flow data. The theoretical considerations are mostly based on
microeconomic foundations, trade theories and new economic geography
The gravity model of international trade was developed independently by Jan Tinbergen
(1962) and Pentti Pöyhönen (1963). The model is convenient as an examination tool for many
reasons such as simplicity, high explanatory ability and improved econometrics. In this basic
form of the gravity model, the amount of trade between two countries is assumed to be
b
ij
ji
ijd
mmfF
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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increasing in their sizes, as measured by their national incomes, and decreasing in the cost of
transport between them, as measured the distance between their economic centres.
Following this work, Hans Linnemann (1966) included population as an additional measure of
country’s size. This model is sometimes called “the augmented gravity model”.It is also
common to specify the augmented gravity model using per capita income (or per capita GDP).
The population expresses the size of a country as well as the size of its economy. Per capita
income expresses the level of economic development. Thus, the size of economy and level of
economic development are the main attractive forces or pull factors of bilateral trade flows.
The main push factor is the distance between the trading partner’s countries.
The theoretical considerations for using gravity models to explore international trade flows
have been widely discussed and developed. Anderson and van Wincoop (2004) propose an
augmented version of the Anderson (1979) model based on the assumption of differentiation
of goods according to place of origin. Goods are differentiated by place of origin and each
country is specialised in the production of only one good. Preferences are identical,
homothetic and approximated by a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function.
Anderson (1979) derives a version of the gravity equation using a setup with trade costs and
CES preferences. Bergstrand (1985) initially supported this hypothesis.Helpman and
Krugman (1985) also derived a foundation relying on the assumption of increasing returns to
scale where products were differentiated by firms, not only by country, and firms were
monopolistically competitive.
The main contribution of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) is the inclusion of multilateral
resistance terms for the importer and the exporter that proxy for the existence of unobserved
trade barriers.) They developed a very adaptable version of the gravity equation using the
generalization with CES preferences. They show that exports in gravity equations do not only
depend on bilateral trade costs but rather on a ratio of bilateral trade costs and the respective
two countries' trade costs to all countries as well. The index that measures a country's overall
resistance to trade is called multilateral resistance.
These multilateral resistances are necessary to retrieve unbiased results from empirical gravity
equations. They are defined as a weighted summation over all countries' trade costs from a
certain country's view and can be interpreted as a country's (adjusted) trade costs with all
other countries. The exclusion of the multilateral trade resistance terms leads to biased
estimates due to the omission of variables and this misspecification can invalidate the
estimation. Bergstrand (1990) provided a foundation based on Dixit and Stiglitz’s
monopolistic competition assumption. In addition, he generalised the model by introducing
prices and incorporating the Linder hypothesis and by including monopolistic competition and
specialization in the context of the Heckscher-Ohlin model.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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Content of the model
Thanks to various modelling refinements and their application to debates about theoretical
foundation of the gravity equation, this model has established itself as a serious empirical tool
for exploring regional trade patterns. The regional integration effects as the deviations from
the volume of trade predicted by the baseline gravity model, which expresses the impact of
traditional gravitational forces like size of economy, population (Head, 2003), level of
economic development and distance, are captured by dummy variables.Gravity models have
been used extensively for the empirical analysis of a wide range of international economics
topics, including FTAs.
The multiplicative form of the gravity model (Anderson (1979), Bergstrand (1985, 1989),
Anderson and van Wincoop (2003)) is the following:
The traditional approach to estimating this equation consists in taking logs of both sides,
leading to a log-log model of the form.
In which FLOW ij is the trade between economy i and j (as reported by economy i);GDP i
is GDP of economy i, as a proxy for the size of the reporting economy;GDP j is GDP of
economy j, as a proxy for the size of the partner economy; dij is the distance between i and j,
as a proxy of travel cost of trade(data are extracted from http://www.distancefromto.net/)
Lij; Li, Lj, are the predictors, independent variables, stand for other variables such as common
language and historical bonds, population, size of the economy;Ɛij is the residual of the
regression; the term captures movements in the bilateral trade not explained by the factors
listed earlier.
The equation in log form can be estimated with linear regression techniques. Therefore, the
model is actually a multivariate linear regression function, which is used for cross-sectional
and panel data analysis.
Structure of gravity model, data analysis
Analyzing with gravity model, a database is required that integrates data describing country
pairs and the countries. The essential elements of the database are spatial data (two different
countries) point- pairs.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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Figure 3. Structure of gravity database
Spatial point-
pairs
ij Flow
(export)
ij
Distance
ij
Variables
Country 1
Variables
Country 2 Variables
Country
pairij Countr
y
i
Countr
y
j
a1, a2… am b1, b2 … bn
Source: Own compilation
27 countries of the European Union (EU-15, EU-12) from 2000 to 2010 are examined with
gravity model and changes in bilateral trade between the countries are observed. A panel
database was compiled and a panel regression analysis was performed based on a gravity
model often used in the empirical literature for estimating the trade value between country-
pairs.
Databases used in the dissertation are as follows: I have compiled a database containing panel
of bilateral trade flows for the period 2000-2010, to compare coefficient estimates for the
gravity model of trade to evaluate the effects of EU regional trade integration.
1.Exports from EU countries to EU countries (within EU): first database, the matrix
includes bilateral export data, variables country and country pairs, total 7723 observations,
data rows and 28 variables from the years 2000 to 2010 between EU Member States. One row
of the matrix contains variables regarding one country pair. (86 cells per line). The matrix
comprises a total of 642697 data cells.
2. Export from EU countries to the world's countries. The database contains variables
relating country and country pairs: export data to the world's countries between the period
2000 to 2010 totally 63,262 observations (data rows) and 154,465 cells. The number of
variables is 11pcs. The database has an extended version with the "Index of Economic
Freedom” index data, which includes 22 pieces of data variables and 63,262 observations
(rows in the matrix) and 384,411 cells.
3. Import of EU countries from the world's countries. The database contains variables
relating country and country pairs: import data between the periods 2000 to 2010, totally
53000 observations (data rows.) The number of variables is 11pcs. The database has an
extended version with the „Index of Economic Freedom " index data, which includes 22
pieces of data variables and 53000 observations (rows in the matrix) and 2,626,489 cells.
4. Sectoral export database from EU countries to EU countries between 2009 to 2000
period with bilateral export data between the EU Member States in sectoral breakdown. The
country and country – pair data are from the OECD STAN database. The data matrix contains
7723 observations (rows) by industry (88 cells in a row). The matrix has 679,681 data cells by
sector and regarding 25 sectors it is totally 193,075 observations that means a total of
4,826,875 pieces of data cells (the 25 sector matrix data combined).
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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Data
The data used cover a period of 11 years (2000-2010) whereas the country sample contains all
of the 27 EU member countries. The bilateral trade data (EXPij) are extracted from the United
Nation ComTrade Database (UN ComTrade). Population and GDP data come from the World
Bank Database (World Trade Indicators), the institutional „Index of Economic Freedom”,
data are from Heritage Foundation, sectoral and production data are from OECD, STAN
Database STAN2 ISIC Rev. 3.The analysis was carried out with STATA 10 programme.
Panel data analysis
In statistics and econometrics, the term panel data refers to multi-dimensional data frequently
involving measurements over time. Panel data contain observations of multiple phenomena
obtained over multiple time periods for the same firms or individuals. Time series and cross-
sectional data are special cases of panel data that are in one dimension only (one panel
member or individual for the former, one time point for the latter).
Longitudinal and panel databases and models have taken an important role in the literature.
They are widely used in the social science literature, where panel data are also known as
pooled cross-sectional time series and in the natural sciences, where panel data are referred to
as longitudinal data.
Recently, it is criticised that the use of conventional cross-section estimation is misspecified
since it is not able to deal with bilateral (exporter or importer) heterogeneity, which is
extremely likely to be present in bilateral trade flows. In this regard a panel based approach
will be desired because heterogeneity issues can be modelled by including country-pair
“individual” effects.
To be able to answer the basic question in this paper an empirical research is performed with
the frequently used gravity model. The gravity equation is estimated through the OLS
procedure. In aim of receiving the best regression results from the OLS an alternative version
of the standard gravity equation, a fixed effect equation is calculated and run as well. The
quantitative study is performed on panel data from 2000 to 2010.
Although a number of panel estimation techniques such as the pooled OLS, the Fixed Effects
Model, the Random Effects Model have been applied in various contexts, the assumption that
unobserved individual effects are uncorrelated with all the regressors is convincingly rejected
in almost all studies. Therefore, the Fixed Effects estimation has been the most preferred
estimation method in order to avoid the potentially biased estimation.
The FE (Fixed effects) model does not measure the actual between-country effects but rather
controls and fixes them, because the individual country-specific variation which is stable over
time, should not affect the conclusion of the research. Unfortunately this also means that
2 Internetes oldal: www.oecd.org/sti/stan Bilateral Trade Database for industrial analysis
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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constant factors like distance, common language and common borders cannot be estimated for
which the model will drop. However, the reasons for a performance of a country-pair fixed
effect regression overshadow this shortcoming. A FE regression is therefore performed on the
data simultaneous to the regular OLS. This is done through inclusion of individual country-
pair dummies in the gravity model. When examining panel data with a FE model, inclusion of
time dummies is considered to provide better results where complete panel dimensions are
taken account to. After discussing the recent econometric developments in gravity modelling, a
correctly specified fixed effects gravity model is proposed.
Difference in differences technique
Difference in differences is a technique used in econometrics that measures the effect of a
treatment at a given period in time. It is often used to measure the change induced by a
particular treatment or event. The treatment effect (that measures the difference in an outcome
between the treatment and control groups), the DID estimator represents the difference
between the pre-post, within-subjects differences of the treatment and control groups.
The simplest set up is one where outcomes are observed for two groups for two time periods.
One of the groups is exposed to a treatment in the second period but not in the first period.
The second group is not exposed to the treatment during either period. In the case where the
same units within a group are observed in each time period, the average gain in the second
(control) group is substracted from the average gain in the first (treatment) group.
DID requires a parallel trend assumption. The treatment effect is the difference between the
observed value of y and what the value of y would have been with parallel trends, had there
been no treatment. To guarantee the accuracy of the DID estimate, the composition of
individuals of the two groups is assumed to remain unchanged over time.
5. The main results of the research, theses
The gravity model was applied successfully for the EU regional trade. The quantitative study
is performed on panel data from 2000 to 2010.the model suited well the database. The gravity
model was applied with success for the EU regional trade. Based on the research, the
following theses can be formulated.
T1. I proved with gravity model the impact of trade expansion of EU integration in the
period of 2000-2010 as far as the new entrant and old members concerned. According to
panel fixed effect estimation (On the basis of my own EU bilateral trade flows database)
a pair of EU members have 54.5% larger exports than a pair of non-members in the
long run. The panel data analyzes demonstrating the trade between the EU and the rest
of the world resulted in the increasing impact of EU trade. On entering the EU, the
export from entering countries to EU countries increases by 24.6% in the long run
while the trade increases towards the outsiders at a growing pace as well. DID analysis
supports my claims.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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The Hypothesis 1 has been proved.
The analysis was carried out as first step with cross section for the years 2004-2010.
The GDP variables in the gravity equation are used as representing the importer demand and
exporter supply potential, which also indicates that the size of an economy has direct relation
to the volume of imports and exports as indicated by the equation. Larger economies produce
more goods and services which means they have more to sell in the export market. Larger
economies also generate a higher income enabling a higher import level. The coefficients
have positive signs, because these are the traditional propulsion (for origins) and attraction
(for destinations) variables in the gravity model. The sign and the statistical significance of
these coefficients will indicate how these factors affect bilateral trade between a pair of
countries/economies. If a coefficient is statistically significant and it is positive, the factor it
represents has a strong direct relationship with bilateral trade, i.e., the factor is deemed to
promote bilateral trade. From the equation GDP and POP to be positive since the size of
reporting economy and partner economy will directly affect the size of bilateral trade between
the two economies. The economies/countries with bigger economic sizes (as proxy by GDP)
have a larger capacity to trade.
The equation based on cross section estimation from the year 2008 is the following:
export12=g*GDP10,7057
* GDP20,8633
*D12 -1,0451 *
Border0,5726
*Language-0.2941
The quantitative study is performed on panel data from 2000 to 2010.
Exporter GDP (0,705) exhibits a positive coefficient .The importer GDP coefficient (0, 8633)
has the same positive sign. These results indicate a great impact from the EU countries. The
coefficient estimate indicates that an increase of 1% in the EU GDP will increase the EU
export to EU by 0, 7057%.
The distance coefficient which is negative in the OLS results has the most significant impact
on bilateral trade flows and this impact is as expected negative. The impact of the trading
partners’ size and level of economic development is positive. The common border coefficient,
while positive and significant in the OLS table, exp (0,57)=1,768.The coefficient of the
border dummy is statistically significant and it indicates that bilateral trade flows between the
border countries are 76,8 % times larger than trade flows between other countries.
Figure 4. Shape of linear regression (cross section model 2008)
Distance
Export
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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Source: Own compilation
Bilateral trade within the EU: Seven models were set up according to the panel analysis
between 2000 and 2010 (OLS, Random effects (RE) fixed effects (FE)). The sign and the
statistical significance of these coefficients will indicate how these factors affect bilateral
trade between a pair of countries/economies. The coefficients are statistically significant, the
factors they represent have a strong direct relationship with bilateral trade, i.e., the factors are
deemed to promote bilateral trade.
I estimate different panel models, namely the OLS, the fixed effect (FE) and the random
effect (RE) models. The estimated coefficient of total export is positive and significant at the
5% significance level. According to the panel fixed effect estimation the exporter GDP and
importer GDP are positive as expected and significant at 5% (any unit increase of a country’s
GDP raises, ceteris paribus, its exports to other EU countries by 1,535% more). When one
country of the country pair is the member of EU and the other is not then the export raises
with exp (0,23) =25,6%. When both the countries are members of the EU, the estimated
coefficient EU membership is positive and has a very high estimated value of exp (0,38)
=1,462. The coefficient is also statistically significant at the 5% level. The EU dummy
according to the model between 2000-2010 is 0,545. The panel data analyzes demonstrating
the trade between the EU and the rest of the world resulted in the increasing impact of EU
trade.The export in the direction of third-country grows by 30.9% with a country's entry into
the EU. When a country enters the EU, the trade coming from the insider EU countries grows
by 10.5% and the export from entering countries to EU countries increases by 24.6%. These
results demonstrate the impact of the EU, which shows the growth in trade with insiders and
outsiders as well.
Analysis with eu entrant dummy corresponds DID technique. According to DID the control
group is the EU- 15, a treated group is EU-12 countries. The „entrant” dummy means: “Has
been treated anytime? The dummy „ eu entrant“ signs the treatment in the given period.
With this technique I estimate the impact of the treatment more precisely. The export in the
direction of third-country grows by 27 % with a EU-12 country's entry into the EU. When a
country enters the EU, the trade coming from the insider EU countries grows by 29 % with
country-year fixed effect. This means trade creation.
The Hypothesis 2 has been proved .
T2. I proved with gravity model the trade diverting effect of EU integration as far as
third countries concerned. The panel data analyses demonstrating the trade between the
EU and the rest of the world between 2000-2010 resulted in the decreasing trade flow
from outsider (non member) countries. On entering the EU, the import of EU-12
country from an outsider (non member) country decreases with 54 % with country-year
fixed effect estimation.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
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According to the panel data analysis based on the database of the import of EU countries from
the world's countries it is outlined that on entering the EU, the import of EU-12 country with
country-year fixed effect estimation from an outsider (not EU member country) decreases
with 54 %.The insider (EU member) countries import 76 % more with country-year fixed
effect estimation from the entering (EU -12) country. The results indicate that the import
decreases from third country.
T3. Using the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF), I employ a gravity model to estimate the
impact of the high-quality institutional environments on bilateral trade flows. The positive
influence of high-quality institutions on bilateral trade flows can be outlined. My results
indicate that not only the membership in the integration (38, 3%) but also the Business
Freedom Index (0,40 %) and the Investment Freedom Index 1,4 %%) have positive impact
on bilateral trade.
The Hypothesis 3 has been proved.
T3. Using the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF), I employ a gravity model to estimate
the impact of the high-quality institutional environments on bilateral trade flows. The
positive influence of high-quality institutions on bilateral trade flows can be outlined.
My results indicate that not only the membership in the integration (38, 3%) but also the
Business Freedom Index (0,40 %) and the Investment Freedom Index ( 1,4 %) have
positive impact on bilateral trade.
The eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) constitutes an outstanding event in
European history and brings with it multiple implications for the old and new members'
economic affairs. By the beginning of the twenty-first century, EU tariffs on imports from the
Central and Eastern European countries were almost completely eliminated. In the beginning
of this process, large unexploited potentials in the trade volume between the EU and the
Central and Eastern European countries were estimated.
In light of the rapid growth, more recent studies from Breuss and Egger (1999) and Piazolo
(2001) argue that the trade potential might already be exploited by now. Yet there remain
informal barriers to trade, resulting from still existing differences in the old and the new mem-
bers' institutional environments. The role of institutions for economic growth and
development has been widely acknowledged.
The positive influence of high-quality institutions on bilateral trade flows is confirmed by
Babetskaia-Kukharchuk and Maurel (2004) focusing on the Central and Eastern European
countries.My thesis combines and extends the empirical literature on institutions, trade and
European integration by asking if the adjustment of the EU-12's institutional framework to
that of the EU-15 might give rise to a further potential in trade between the old and the new
member countries
I investigate the impact of economic freedom on the EU bilateral trade. I used a balanced
panel dataset of total volume of trade between the EU countries and the world. Using the
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
17
Index of Economic Freedom (IEF), I employ a gravity model to estimate the impact of the
index on bilateral trade. I find that improvement in both exporter and importer economic
freedom tends to induce more trade. My results also indicate that the membership in the
integration have a positive impact (38,3%) on intra-EU trade.
The index provides a comprehensive system for comparing the strength of economic
institutions across countries. This index, encompassing attributes of economic freedom such
as freedom to trade, freedom from corruption, size of government, legal structures, and access
to money; provides a good framework to assess how economic policies in EU promote or
hinder bilateral trade. My empirical results indicate that the economic freedom of both
exporting and importing countries positively affect the volume of trade. This finding suggests
that improving the strength of economic institutions will remove the barriers to trade that
inhibit EU trade.
The Hypothesis 4 has been proved.
T4. In order to evaluate the economic integration effects across sectors, I build up a
sectoral gravity model. According to the value of the distance coefficients I proved with
fixed effect panel estimation that the trade integration in “high-tech” industries is
greater compared to the homogenous goods and those with high shipping costs because
of their higher distance coefficients.
The eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) constitutes an outstanding event in In
order to evaluate the EU economic integration effects across sectors, I build up a sectoral
gravity model which allows us to capture the implicit benefits of EU trade, by controlling for
the explicit determinants of trade.
The database used in analysis covers the time between 2000-2009 and contains bilateral
export data between EU members. (EXPij is the export from country i to country j in dollars,
as dependent variable). Export and production data are from az OECD, STAN
Database STAN3 ISIC Rev. 3
4 database with 7723 observations by sector this means
altogether 193075 observations for 25 sectors.
The trade integration is low in the following sector (distance parameter) a „Coke, Refined
Petroleum products and nuclear fuel” (-2.060) „ Extraction of crude petroleum and natural
gas and related services” (-1.827) and non ferros szektor esetén, These sectors can be
characterised with high transport costs.
The trade integration is low in „Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing” (-1.163), „Mining
and Quarrying” (-1.466), and in „Food products” (-1,106).
In sectors which are well integrated including some „high-tech” industries, like” Machinery
and equipment” (-0,646) „Accounting and Computing Machinery „ (-0.496),”Electrical
3 Internetes oldal: www.oecd.org/sti/stan Bilateral Trade Database for industrial analysis
4 International Standard Industrial Classification , Revision 3 (ISIC Rev. 3)
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
18
machinery and apparatus” (-0,353),”Radio, Television and communication equipment” (-
0,208) the distance coefficients are lower.
The Hypothesis 5 has been proved.
T5. The sectoral trade integration analysis was deepened with capturing TBT
("Technical Barriers to Trade “coefficient compiled for separate sectors. The trade-
reducing effect of such remaining obstacles (TBT) in” Iron and steel” (-13, 08),” Coke,
refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel” (-5,324), “Food and beverages” (-8, 72),
“Electrical and optical equipment” (-4, 54) „Fabricated metal products” (-6.094)
industries can be justified.
The trade within Europe is still impeded by significant barriers to trade. In particular, there
remained many non-tariff barriers, including so-called "technical barriers to trade.These
barriers result from regulations by requiring specific product characteristics or production
processes.
The sectoral database was accomplished with TBT indicator. I used two sources. The
European Commission’s Eurobarometer reports on opinions and experiences of European
managers about the Single Market. A total of 4,900 managers at companies were interviewed
by telephone in early 2006, the sample of companies being selected according to the size of
countries and of companies, and the industry of activity. I use the answer to the question:
“Could you tell me whether you consider that for your company it is very important, rather
important, rather unimportant or not important at all that future Single Market Policy tackles
the question of removing remaining technical barriers to trade in goods?” For each country, I
grouped the answers from all managers who replied that TBTs are indeed an important issue,
and use the percentage so obtained as a country-specific indication on the relevance of
TBTs.
To capture the sectoral relevance of TBTs, industries are classified at the NACE70 level on a
five-point scale according to the effectiveness of different measures undertaken by the Single
Market Programme to eliminate TBTs. My industry-specific qualitative variable takes on
values between 1 and 5, with larger values indicating a lack of market integration due to
persisting TBTs. At the sector level, examples of industries where TBTs are successfully
removed are “Dressing and dyeing of fur,” “Electric domestic appliances,” “Motor vehicles”
or “Aircraft and spacecraft” while TBTs are still prevalent in “Jewellery” or “Imitation
jewellery,” among others. Given that TBTs require specific product characteristics or
production processes we would expect them to be stronger for differentiated than for
homogeneous goods.
TBT coefficient is computed according to country specific (TBTi; TBTj) and sector specific
(TBTt) chararacteristics in CES formation is often used in the literature of international trade.
TBTijt = [TBTi1/2
+ TBTj1/2
+ TBTt1/2
]2
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
19
TBT coefficient is high in sector” Iron and steel” (-13, 08),” Coke, Refined Petroleum
products and nuclear fuel” (-5,324), “Food and beverages” (-8, 72), “Electrical and optical
equipment” (-4,54) „Fabricated metal products” (-6.094) industries. According to the sectoral
gravity estimation in these sectors the trade integration is impeded by technical barriers to
trade.
The Hypothesis 6 has not been proved.
If there are several bodies, the forces among them build up a forcefield, the potential space, in
which every single body has its effect on the others. The potential value of a body consists of
the sum of these forces. This model can be applied on the interactions of social space as the
bodies to spatial entities (for example countries, regions), and the masses to economic or
social power can be matched. In this case we can calculate the potentials and can take into
account those forces, which work within the spatial entities and form their masses. (Tagai,
2011)
It measures how the other spatial entities influence a chosen entity, in other words it can
describe the position of a region within a country by taking into account the other regions.
The potential model is good method to analyse core and periphery relations as we consider
that great disproportions can be noticed in the patterns of economy's spatial layout—in the
forcefield East-Central Europe can be regarded as the periphery of the western parts, which
dominate the whole area.(Tagai,2011)
T6. On the basis of cross-sectional GDP-and distance parameter estimations obtained
from gravity models, applying potential model analysis I proved that the European
economic space has not changed significantly as a result of the new members’ accession.
Applying the potential model the investigation covers those countries, which are in close
relationship since centuries, and whose development can't be imagined without one another.
They put the formation of spatial layout in a core—periphery relation. For understanding their
position in the potential space it is possible to give picture of the dynamic core area as the
action centre of Central Europe.In East- Central Europe the potential values decrease with
moving off the local cores of the area.
The western parts dominate the potential field by their huge economic power. We can observe
zonality in the total potentials within its belts a nearly uniform image with decreasing values
of potentials moving off the core. The “core” can be indeed imagined as a centre(the most
developed regions of Central Europe are French, Belgian and Dutch areas give so much
economic power that it has an effect) from which field of different strength emerge one after
the other. As a result, an extended periphery comes into being around the core area of Europe,
composed by the members of the Mediterranean and Central-Eastern regions.(Tagai,2011)
Moving eastwards, away from the dynamic core area, the value of economic potential
gradually decreases. The transformation of the Central-Eastern European structures “affecting
each other” is indirectly “governed” by the processes in the neighbouring central areas.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
20
As we saw the neighborhood effect is also an important factor. Regions with greater potentials
can have positive effect on their neighbors, like Germany and Austria in the case of the Czech
Republic, while an area with less potential values can influence its neighbour's position
negatively.
It can be concluded that according to the potential model analysis in the years of 2004, 2007
and 2010 on the basis of cross-sectional GDP-and distance parameter estimations obtained
from gravity models, the European economic space has not changed as a result of the new
members accession. Compared to 2004, the economic potential map has not changed
significantly, but little alteration was observed in the order of the countries. The central
location centers will continue to remain in the best relative spatial position. In the longer term
potential shift is expected.
6. Conclusion, further research
In 2004 eight Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic along with Cyprus and Malta in
2007 Romania and Bulgaria,in 2013 Croatia joined the European Union.
The focus has shifted towards deeper economic integration, especially in recent years. The degree
of the economic impact of enlargement depends crucially on the degree of economic integration.
The countries joining the EU in 2004 entered the highest degree of economic integration: the
single market with the eventual prospective of adopting a single currency, which some of them
have done since.
Theoretically, as borders open up, trade costs will fall making goods that had until than been
unaffordable due to high trade costs, more appealing. This increased competitive pressure will
make some importers switch suppliers, choosing the cheapest ones available under the new
market conditions. In general, the intra-EU trade volumes were positively affected by the
enlargement of the European Community, e.g. with the accession of new member states. This
clearly suggests that one of main factors behind the increasing importance of intra-EU trade
within the total EU trade is clearly the stronger link among member states over the last decade.
The objective of this dissertation is to review the recent empirical literature on gravity models and
provide an overview of EU integration effects on international trade as reported by relevant
gravity model-based studies over the past decade. Examining the trade prospects for the new
European Union (EU) member states is an important issue in the context of European eastward
enlargement and greater economic integration. I use a gravity equation for a panel data set of
bilateral export flows from EU-12, EU-15 over the 2000-2010 period. The potential trade volumes
are calculated from gravity model.
I have made estimates with robust standard errors for the impact of EU integration with cross
section and panel data analysis. Perfect estimation is, of course, not possible, but I will work on
improving it in the future.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
21
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Own Publications
Foreign language publications:
Ildiko-Virag Neumann : Impacts of the integration on trade of EU members - a gravity
model approach (submitted and accepted) .CENTRAL EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND TOURISM 2014
Telcs A.-Kosztyán Zs.T.-Ildiko Virag-Neumann-Katona A.-Török Á.: „Analysis of
Hungarian students’ college choices” 6th World Conference on Educational Sciences (06-09
February 2014, University of Malta
Ildiko-Virag Neumann: CSR and CRM at Mars Hungary LTD. Marketing - from information
to decision International Conference, 30-31st October 2009, Kolozsvár, Románia, ISSN
2067-0338, p.503-51 „Marketing from Information to Decisison” 2/2009
Ildiko-Virag Neumann: Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO. 7th International
Conference On MANAGEMENT, ENTERPRISE AND BENCHMARKING (Menedzsment,
Vállalkozás és Benchmarking Nemzetközi Konferencia) 2009 June 5-6, Budapest, ISBN 978-
963-7154-88-1, p.381-391
Ildiko-Virag Neumann: The impact of the WTO Doha Trade Talks on the rise of regionalism
KF Kertészeti Főiskolai Kar, Erdei Ferenc V. Tudományos Konferencia poszterkiadvány
(megjelenés alatt) Kecskemét, ISBN 978-963-7294-75-4
Periodicals
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: Liberalizációs törekvések az agrártermékek világpiacán In:EU
Working Papers 2009/2. szám ISSN 1418-6241 Dr. Majoros Pál szerkesztésében 25-35o.
Nagy Dávid Krisztián-Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A bizonytalanság hatása az exportvolumenre
– egy gravitációs modell-alapú megközelítés, Külgazdaság, 2013/3-4 89-105 o.
Book chapter:
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A kereskedelem, különös tekintettel a Regionális Kereskedelmi
Egyezményekben folyó külkereskedelem vizsgálata gravitációs modellel in Nahlik Gábor
(szerk.): “Válaszok a XXI. század gazdaságának kérdéseire;” Pannon Egyetemi Kiadó ISBN
978-615-5044-04-5 p.163-185
Hungarian language publications:
Proceedings:
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A kis- és középvállalatok és a szemléletváltás. Erdei Ferenc
Tudományos Konferencia, Kecskemét, 2005. augusztus
Neumanné Virág Ildikó – Dániel Zoltán András: Gazdasági alapok. Elektronikus tananyag
Médiaspecializáció indítása a Veszprémi Egyetemen ROP 3.3 pályázat keretében, 2006.
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A magyar kis- és középvállalatok exporttevékenysége. 6th
International Conference On MANAGEMENT, ENTERPRISE AND BENCHMARKING
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
25
(Menedzsment, Vállalkozás és Benchmarking Nemzetközi Konferencia) 2008. június ISBN
978-963-7154-73-7
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: „Az agrárkereskedelem liberalizálása a WTO tükrében” Tudomány
hete nemzetközi konferencia, Dunaújvárosi Főiskola, 2008. november 10-. Dunaújvárosi
Főiskola Közleményei, XXXIII. kötet, ISSN 1586-8567
Neumanné Virág Ildikó:” A WTO szerepe az agrártermékek kereskedelmének
szabályozásában”50. Georgikon Napok Tudományos konferencia, Keszthely, 2008.
2010szeptember 25. ISBN 978-963-9639-32-4
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: Liberalizációs törekvések az agrártermékek világpiacán. Kultúraközi
párbeszéd az üzleti világban. BGF Magyar Tudomány Napja, 2008. november, Budapest
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A regionális kereskedelmi megállapodások/RTA-k/ és a WTO.
Kheops Konferencia, Mór, 2009. május, ISBN 978-963-87553-5-3
Ildiko-Virag Neumann: Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO. 7th International
Conference On MANAGEMENT, ENTERPRISE AND BENCHMARKING (Menedzsment,
Vállalkozás és Benchmarking Nemzetközi Konferencia) 2009 June 5-6, BUDAPEST, ISBN
978-963-7154-88-1, p.381-391
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: Kik lehetnek a nyertesei a Doha tárgyalások agrárliberalizációjának?
Kecskeméti Főiskola Kertészeti Főiskolai Kar, Erdei Ferenc V. Tudományos Konferencia,
Kecskemét, 2009. szeptember 3. ISBN978-963-7294-74-7
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: Liberalizáció vagy diszkrimináció? A regionalizmus napjainkban.
Pannon Gazdaságtudományi Konferencia, Veszprém, 2009. szeptember 4. (megjelenés alatt)
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A Doha forduló hatása az agrárkereskedelemre. 51. Georgikon
Tudományos Konferencia, Keszthely, 2009. október 2., előadáskötet a konferencia címlapján,
ISBN 978-963-9639-35-5
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: The impact of the WTO Doha Trade Talks on the rise of regionalism
KF Kertészeti Főiskolai Kar, Erdei Ferenc V. Tudományos Konferencia poszterkiadvány
Kecskemét, ISBN 978-963-7294-75-4
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: CRM at Mars Hungary LTD. Marketing - from information to
decision International Conference, 30-31st October 2009, Kolozsvár, Románia, ISSN 2067-
0338, p.503-51
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A globalizáció, a multilaterális kereskedelmi rendszer és a regionális
kezdeményezések kapcsolata, ellentmondásai. Gazdaság és társadalom Nemzetközi
Konferencia a Magyar Tudomány Ünnepe alkalmából, Sopron, 2009. november 3. CD-ROM
ISBN: 978-963-9871-30-4
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A gravitációs modell alkalmazása a külkereskedelemben. KHEOPS
Tudományos Konferencia, Mór, 2010. május. KHEOPS Tudományos Konferencia, Mór,
2010. május ISBN 978 -963-87553-6-0
Neumanné Virág Ildikó Ph.D Dissertation Repertory of Theses
26
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A gravitációs modell. 8th International Conference On
MANAGEMENT, ENTERPRISE AND BENCHMARKING (Menedzsment, Vállalkozás és
Benchmarking Nemzetközi Konferencia) 2010. június 4. BUDAPEST ISBN978-615-5018-
01-5 p.241-251
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: A külkereskedelem vizsgálata gravitációs modellel, „HITEL,
VILÁG, STÁDIUM” Tudományos konferencia, Sopron 2010. november 3. CD-ROM
ISBN 978963 988373 4
Michelberger Pál - Lábodi Csaba - Neumanné Virág Ildikó - Szikora Péter: Szabványos
irányítási rendszerek alkalmazásának kérdőíves vizsgálata Magyarországon. 9th
International Conference On MANAGEMENT, ENTERPRISE AND BENCHMARKING
(Menedzsment, Vállalkozás Benchmarking Nemzetközi Konferencia) 2011. June 5.
BUDAPEST
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: Regionális integráción belüli kereskedelem vizsgálata
gravitációs modellel. Változó környezet - Innovatív Stratégiák konferencia, Sopron 2011.
november 3. CD-ROM ISBN 978-963-9883-87-1
Neumanné Virág Ildikó- Dr. Molnárné Barna Katalin: A felsőoktatás térstruktúrájának
jellemzése gravitációs-és potenciálmodell segítségével “Felelős társadalom-fenntartható
gazdaság” Tudományos Konferencia Sopron 2013. november ISBN: 978-963-334-1445
Neumanné Virág Ildikó: Az integráció hatása az EU tagországok külkereskedelmére,
“Felelős társadalom-fenntartható gazdaság” Tudományos Konferencia Sopron, 2013.
November ISBN: 978-963-3341445