NIRA Forum; Environmental Agreement. Tokyo, 2006 .11.6

Thinking About Environmental Agreement Thinking About Environmental Agreement

Among Among Northeast Asian CountriesNortheast Asian Countries

2006 . 11. 6

Jeong-In, Kim, (Chung-Ang University )

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Contents01 Economic Growth and the Future of NE Asia

02 Environmental Pressure Among NE Countries

03 Efforts of Environmental Cooperation

04 Facing Issues

0405 Facing Issues

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I. Economic Growth and Future of NE Asia

PriceWaterHouse(2006) ; Projected real GDP Growth in Alternative Scenario2005-2050 ; Japan (1.4-1.6%), S. Korea (2.2-2.4%), China (3.1-3.9%) Assume 17 Countries PPP is 75% in the World.

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NE Energy Demand will increase 2 times more than 1999 till 2020 : China consume 70 % of Energy demand - Economic boom maintain an upward trend until 2020. - In 2005, Growth Rate of GDP expanded 10 times (1949) Korea (Bank of Korea(2005) : Share of economy in the world : 2% to 1.7%, Japan ; Share of Economy 12 % (2003), to 6% (2040)

NE Countries Final Energy Demand Until 2020

Country 1999 2010 2020

Korea 125 190 250

Japan 342 376 409

China 768 1024 1,353

Total 1,235 1590 2,012

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If Chinese Economic Growth Maintain 6% in average per year until 2030,

Consumption of primary energy increase from 0.85 billion ton to 2.4 billion tons (2030)

Importing cost ; 25.3 billion US dollars per Year.

(Unit: Million barrel/day )

2001 2010 2015 2020 2025

Consumption 12.5 15.8 17.5 19.4 21.5

KoreaChinaJapan

2.15.05.4

2.57.65.7

2.69.25.7

2.711.05.7

2.912.85.8

Import 9.2 (1.6) 12.2 (4.0) 14.0 (5.7) 15.9 (7.5) 18.1 (9.4)

% of Import 73.6 77.2 80.0 82.0 84.2

Note: ( ) mean import from China. Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2004

Estimation of Petroleum Imports among Northeast Asian (2001-2025)

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II. Environmental Pressures Among NE Asia

Comparison of GHG’s Intensity by Industry Sector and It’s Ranking

Note: P-production, C-Consumption, I-Intensity, A-Asia, East U-Eastern EuropeSource: OECD, 2005

KoreaKorea11

IndiaIndia10

AsiaJapanJapanKoreaKoreaKorea7

IndiaChinaChinaAsia6

ChinaChina5

ChinaChinaAChina2

IndiaChinaChinaChinaChina1

ICPICPICPICP

AutomobileCoal Power PlantSteelAluminum

#

Note: P-production, C-Consumption, I-Intensity, A-Asia, East U-Eastern Europe.Source: OECD, 2005

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2005 Environmental Sustainable Index

Source: www.yale.edu/esi, 2005

Korea China Japan Mongolia Russia

Percentage of country’s territory in threatened eco-regions (%)

23.09 38.5 49.70 38.72 17.59

Percentage of total land area (including inland waters) having very high anthropogenic

impact(%)0.80 1.09 21.96 0.01 0.91

Freshwater availability per capita( Thousand cubic meters per person)

2.78 1.88 2.62 28.26 24.65

Coal consumption per populated land area (Terajoules coal consumed per populated land)

18.94 3.90 9.62 4.67 1.56

Ecological Footprint per capita(Hectares of biologically productive land

required percapita)4.07 1.36 3.91 5.68 4.28

Waste recycling rate (%) - - 78.00 0.00 13.90

Pesticide consumption per hectare of arable land (Kg)

1.01 0.77 4.31 0.31 0.20

Percentage of total forest areathat is certified for sustainable management

(Percentage of total forest areathat is FSC or PEFC certified)

0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.25

Energy efficiency(Terajoules energy consumption per million

dollars( GDP)22.57 6.98 6.07 18.95 21.93

Hydropower and renewable energy production as a percentage of total energy consumption

(%)22.42 7.29 4.87 0.00 6.74

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China: World consumption of raw materials: 7% (90) to 20% (2003)

- Will increase two times more in 2010.

To produce 1 $ worth of product, industry spend 3 times moreenergy than world average, 7 times more than Japanese industry.

<Chinese Eco-efficiency Indicators>

20% < World advanced levelMineral resources recovery rate

15-25% < World advanced levelWater recycle rate in industries

2 times > developed countries with similar climate

Energy consumption / m2 in a regular building

40% > World averageEnergy consumption / product in steel, chemical and electric power industries

2-3 times > developed countriesEnergy consumption / GDP

ChinaBasic Indicators for Energy Consumption

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Very Low Raw Material Input Efficiency per

Core Production In China

267.5422.782.6356.02002

398.7488.582.3357.02001

293.0504.082.9363.02000

444.0603.082.8375.01997

554.0617.083.0369.01995

723.0689.0148.9392.01990

757.0626.0143.0398.01985

Amount of energy per Polyester (kgoe/t)

Amount of Electricity per Cokes (kg/t)

Amount of energy per Petroleum

Process (kgoe/t)

Amount of Coal per kwh (g/kwh)

Northeast Asian countries Faces ;

- Lack of Raw Material, and Energy from Economic Growth

- Trans boundary Pollution Problem among NE Asian Countries

- Asian Premium : High Oil Price and Energy Security

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Growth Rate of Power Electricity Demand and

Growth Rate of GDP in China (1997-2004) (Unit : %)

9.79.58.37.58.07.17.88.8GDP

16.016.511.68.69.56.12.84.4Electricity

20041/2

2003200220012000199919981997Growth Rate

China ;

- Lack of Electricity Supply in 2003 (2.6%), 2004 (7%) ; Grid Connection Problem

- Excess Demand for the Electricity (EIA, 2005) after 2000

- Back Stage Energy War for the Economic Growth : Energy Diplomacy

- More dependence on Coal , Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy

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China Invest 99.6 billion dollars (1999) for environmental protection.

Environmental Invest 2010(1%), 2020( 2.5%), 2030(6%)- Among 338 cities, 2nd grade of Air Quality (36.5%)

- Second Rank for the Emission of GHGs in the World

- Serious Desertification and Yellow Sand

- Coal Based Power Plant and Energy ; Acid Rain Problem

Shortage of Water Resource : World Food Problem - 南 水 北 調 Project : Invest 4,500 Billion dollars.

- Among 600 cities ; 300 cities are suffering lack of water supply.

- Construct the Largest Three Long Dam( 西 電 東 送 ), Water Quality in Boe Hai Man

- Construction of Waste Water Treatment (450 Billion Dollars).

Trans-boundary Pollution in West Sea

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Trans-boundary Pollution ; Yellow Sea

- 27% of Big 7 River Stream: Below 5th Grade

-Serious Chinese Coastal Area : Worst Case is Hae Ha Stream (56.7%)

- Accident ; Sungwha River(venzen), Kwangdon(Cd), Ta River(2004)

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Trans-boundary Pollution ; Acid Rain

-342 Cities Air Quality 2nd Grade : 2004(38.6%), 2003(41.7%)

-Peoples Living in City (66%) : Under Standard Level

- Close Relationship b/w Coal Cons. and SO2 Emission

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1981

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석탄소비량

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SO2배출량

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석탄소비량 SO2 배출량

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Trans-boundary Pollution ; Acid Rain

Map of PH Degree in China from 1998-2004

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Desertification is Getting SeriousDesertification is Getting Serious

Status of 8 Main Desert Areas Status of 8 Main Desert Areas

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III. Efforts of Environmental Cooperation

(1) NEASPEC : High Raking Level

- NERI(Korea) : Education and Training Center

(2) NEAC : Type of Symposium Approaches

- Hard to try Concrete Environmental Project

(3) ECOASIA : Japan Initiative

- Asian - Pacific Information Center, Kids Eco Club Program

(4) EANET : Acid Deposition Monitoring Network

(5) NOWPAP ; Local Marine Program

(6) LTP : Long Range Trans. Boundary Air Pollution

(7) Yellow Sand : GEF, UNESCAP, UNEP,

(8) TEMM ; Tripartie Environmental Ministers Meeting- Very Effective and Fruitful Meeting

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IV. Facing Environmental Issues

Climate Change - CDM Project, Renewable Energy, Water Shortage (Food),

- Hydrogen Energy, Funding Sources

- Insurance Service and Disaster Adaptation

Technical Transfer- CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) –Coal Power Plant

- Environmental Service Industry and Technology

WTO and Environmental Disputes- Montreal Protocol, Basel, CITES < FTA, NAFTA

- Foreign Investment Agreement (ex) Etil VS. Canada (MMT)

Financial Support from Outside

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Facing Environmental Issues

Common Interest - Introduction of Regional Eco-Mark (China)- Learning by Doing : Policy Design and Implementation - Forestation for Desert and Yellow Sand- Waste Recycle (3R) Society- Regulation Pressure from the EU, and U.S.A ; Exports

(WEEE, RoHs, ELV, REAH, etc)- Need High Energy Efficiency - Technical Innovation in Frontier Area

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Current Status of CDM (2006.1)

자료: Wang Can, “CDM Market Opportunities in China”, 2006.2

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Thinking About Environmental Agreement

Environmental Agreement Road Map:

1st Stage

- Blue Print Vision ; Build Trust, Simple but Effective

- Energy Supply ; Renewable Energy

- NE Asia Environmental Research Center ; Regional Eco-Mark , Waste

- Forestation, Coal Tech. , Bo Hai Area,

2nd Stage

- Climate Change, Water Supply (7 River), Hydrogen Energy

- Common Oil Logistics Tank ,

3rd Stage : Issue Approach, And Finance Approach

- Introduction of NE Environmental Agreement (Desertification , Acid Rain, Climate Change, Waste Recycle)

NE Environmental Protocol ; “Role of Circulation Duty”

Initiate NE Asia Environmental Bank ; WB, GEF, ADB, EU bank etcs.

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Focus PointLocal Concern, Synergy Effect, Visible Result11

Utilize Existing Body, Common Vision ; 22

Devoted Leader and Role - Desertification (China) , Acid Rain (China), Climate Change (Japan), - Waste Recycle (Korea)

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Financial Support from NE, World Bank, and the other- Make various Funds, and Economic Incentives for Private

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Compliance Setting ; Learn International Environmental Policy- LRTAP(Acid Rain) in EU, Varselrona Env. Agreement(75)

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Policy

Common Sharing Policy- waste - eco products and mark - resource supply and productivityFinance- bank, government, private- FDI

Culture

Trust- Research and Education - Share Cultural Experience- Information Sharing Realize Importance - Role of NE Asia In the Future - One Society

JAPAN

CHINAKOREA

NE Environmental Agreement

International BodyBank

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