Thinking:Thinking:Problem Solving and Problem Solving and

Decision MakingDecision Making

Units of Thoughts Units of Thoughts ConceptConcept– A mental grouping based on shared similarityA mental grouping based on shared similarity– Categorizing items in one’s environmentCategorizing items in one’s environment

PrototypePrototype– A typical best example incorporating the major A typical best example incorporating the major

features of a conceptfeatures of a concept– The closer a new object is to our concept The closer a new object is to our concept

prototype the easier it is to categorize itprototype the easier it is to categorize it

Image Image – Mental representation of a sensory experience Mental representation of a sensory experience

Problem SolvingProblem SolvingA problem exists where there is a difference A problem exists where there is a difference between where you are and where you would between where you are and where you would like to belike to be

Problem solving is the use of information to Problem solving is the use of information to meet a specific goalmeet a specific goal

Problem Solving Steps:Problem Solving Steps:– Understanding the problemUnderstanding the problem– Making a plan (Con v. Divergent Thinking)Making a plan (Con v. Divergent Thinking)– Carrying out the planCarrying out the plan– Looking back Looking back

Problem Solving Strategies Problem Solving Strategies

Trial and ErrorTrial and Error

AlgorithmsAlgorithms

Heuristics Heuristics

Algorithm ExamplesAlgorithm Examples

Y = mx +bY = mx +b

Figuring out a locker combination by trying Figuring out a locker combination by trying every possible combination every possible combination

Not always efficient!Not always efficient!

Heuristic Examples Heuristic Examples i before e ….i before e ….

Problems Solving Problems Solving ProblemsProblems

Mental SetMental Set

A tendency to approach a problem in A tendency to approach a problem in a particular way (often one that has a particular way (often one that has been successful in the past)been successful in the past)

The set may or may not be helpful in The set may or may not be helpful in solving a new problemsolving a new problem– Ex: Ex: A child opens the door to a store by pulling on A child opens the door to a store by pulling on

it. He later insists on pulling the door handle of any it. He later insists on pulling the door handle of any similar-looking door to open it, and is puzzled that similar-looking door to open it, and is puzzled that some of them must be pushed instead.some of them must be pushed instead.

Mental Set: ExampleMental Set: Example

What are the final three letters in the What are the final three letters in the sequence?sequence?– O-T-T-F-?-?-?O-T-T-F-?-?-?– J-F-M-A-?-?-?J-F-M-A-?-?-?

How could you arrange six matches to How could you arrange six matches to create 4 equilateral triangles?create 4 equilateral triangles?

FixationFixationA mental set that hinders the A mental set that hinders the solution of a problemsolution of a problem

One needs to think beyond the One needs to think beyond the mental set to solve the new problemmental set to solve the new problem– Thinking outside the boxThinking outside the box

Dots and Candle problems Dots and Candle problems

Functional FixednessFunctional Fixedness

The inability to think of different uses for The inability to think of different uses for objectsobjects

Your turn: You have 1,000 VHS tapes and Your turn: You have 1,000 VHS tapes and boxes. Brainstorm ways in which you boxes. Brainstorm ways in which you could use these objects. could use these objects.

Representativeness Heuristic Representativeness Heuristic

A heuristic in which a situation is judged A heuristic in which a situation is judged on the basis of its resemblance to a on the basis of its resemblance to a stereotypical modelstereotypical model– May lead us to ignore other relevant May lead us to ignore other relevant

informationinformation– Tversky and Kahnerman:Tversky and Kahnerman:

Thomas is short, slim, and loves poetry. Is he Thomas is short, slim, and loves poetry. Is he more likely an Ivy League Classics professor more likely an Ivy League Classics professor or a truck driver?or a truck driver?

Availability HeuristicAvailability HeuristicA heuristic in which a decision is made based on A heuristic in which a decision is made based on information that is easily retrieved from memoryinformation that is easily retrieved from memory– Information is often vivid, based on past experiences Information is often vivid, based on past experiences

Frequency of an event’s occurrence is predicted Frequency of an event’s occurrence is predicted by the ease with which the event is brought to by the ease with which the event is brought to mind mind – Can be correct or incorrectCan be correct or incorrect

Tversky and KahnermanTversky and Kahnerman

The lottery!The lottery!

Grandma smoked for 50 years and was healthy, Grandma smoked for 50 years and was healthy, so cigarette smoking can’t be that bad!so cigarette smoking can’t be that bad!

Confirmation BiasConfirmation BiasThe tendency to focus on information that The tendency to focus on information that supports one’s preconceptions (and supports one’s preconceptions (and ignore the evidence that would disprove ignore the evidence that would disprove them!)them!)

EX: A reporter writes an article on a EX: A reporter writes an article on a controversial issue (gun control) and only controversial issue (gun control) and only interviews experts that support his/her interviews experts that support his/her opinionopinion

Peter WasonPeter Wason

OverconfidenceOverconfidence

The tendency to be more confident than The tendency to be more confident than correct when estimating the accuracy of correct when estimating the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgmentsone’s beliefs and judgments

I feel 98% certain that the population of I feel 98% certain that the population of Switzerland is more than ___ and less Switzerland is more than ___ and less than ______.than ______.

Only 66% of people were accurate!Only 66% of people were accurate!

Why do we do this?Why do we do this?

Is the Mississippi River longer or shorter Is the Mississippi River longer or shorter than 300 miles?than 300 miles?– How long is it?How long is it?

Is the population of Argentina more or less Is the population of Argentina more or less than 3 million?than 3 million?– What is the population of Argentina?What is the population of Argentina?

Is the Mississippi River shorter or longer Is the Mississippi River shorter or longer than 3,000 miles?than 3,000 miles?– How long is it?How long is it?

Is the population of Argentina more or less Is the population of Argentina more or less than 20 million?than 20 million?– What is the population of Argentina?What is the population of Argentina?

FramingFraming

The way an issue is worded or The way an issue is worded or presentedpresented

Can influence decisions and Can influence decisions and judgmentsjudgments

Tversky and KahnermanTversky and Kahnerman

Framing Examples Framing Examples

Condoms have a 95% success rate in Condoms have a 95% success rate in stopping HIV, the virus that causes AIDSstopping HIV, the virus that causes AIDS– 90% of college students who read only the 90% of college students who read only the

first statement said condoms were effectivefirst statement said condoms were effective

Condoms have a 5% failure rate in Condoms have a 5% failure rate in stopping HIV, the virus that causes AIDS stopping HIV, the virus that causes AIDS – Only 40% said they were effective Only 40% said they were effective

Examples (cont)Examples (cont)

Ground beef: 20% fat of 80% lean?Ground beef: 20% fat of 80% lean?

Surgeon: 2% death rate or 98% success Surgeon: 2% death rate or 98% success rate?rate?

Belief PerseveranceBelief Perseverance

Clinging to one’s initial beliefs even Clinging to one’s initial beliefs even after new information discredits the after new information discredits the basis on which they were formedbasis on which they were formed

Once you have explained to yourself Once you have explained to yourself why candidate Y will be the best why candidate Y will be the best commander in chief, you tend to commander in chief, you tend to ignore evidence that would ignore evidence that would undermine this belief undermine this belief

Belief Perseverance ExampleBelief Perseverance Example

Two groups of people with opposing views on Two groups of people with opposing views on capital punishment were shown “new” research capital punishment were shown “new” research findings (one supporting and one refuting the findings (one supporting and one refuting the effect of capital punishment on crime)effect of capital punishment on crime)

Each side was more impressed by the study that Each side was more impressed by the study that supported their side supported their side

When shown mixed evidence, disagreement When shown mixed evidence, disagreement actually increases!actually increases!

How do you fix this? Ask someone to consider How do you fix this? Ask someone to consider the other sidethe other side