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A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 16 June 2008 Significant Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New England. Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS at Albany NROW X November 5-6, 2008. Motivation. CSTAR III examines sensible weather with warm season cutoff lows - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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A Storm-Scale Analysis of the A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 16 June 2008 Significant 16 June 2008 Significant
Severe Weather Event across Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New New York and Western New
EnglandEnglandThomas A. WasulaThomas A. Wasula
NOAA/NWS at AlbanyNOAA/NWS at AlbanyNROW XNROW X
November 5-6, 2008November 5-6, 2008
MotivationMotivation
CSTAR III examines sensible weather with CSTAR III examines sensible weather with warm season cutoff lowswarm season cutoff lows
Storm-scale environment important to Storm-scale environment important to understand mesoscale substructure of understand mesoscale substructure of convection with cutoffsconvection with cutoffs
New technology being utilized in short-New technology being utilized in short-fuse operationsfuse operations
OutlineOutline
Brief Synoptic and Mesoscale OverviewBrief Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview
Radar AnalysisRadar Analysis
1.) GR2Analyst1.) GR2Analyst
2.) Four Dimensional Storm Cell 2.) Four Dimensional Storm Cell Investigator (FSI)Investigator (FSI)
3.) Traditional Radar Graphics3.) Traditional Radar Graphics
BackgroundBackground
Numerous large hail reports with Numerous large hail reports with significant agricultural damage to orchards significant agricultural damage to orchards across upstate NYacross upstate NYShort wave trough and cold front ahead of Short wave trough and cold front ahead of Cutoff focuses convectionCutoff focuses convectionCold pool anomalies (steep lapse rates) Cold pool anomalies (steep lapse rates) coupled with sufficient shear and instability coupled with sufficient shear and instability allowed multicellular and isolated allowed multicellular and isolated supercells to impact region supercells to impact region
Moderate Risk: Albany Forecast Moderate Risk: Albany Forecast AreaArea
1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook
16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 500 16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 500 hPa Heights, Temps and hPa Heights, Temps and
WindsWinds
www.spc.noaa.gov
16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 300 hPa 16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 300 hPa Isotachs, Streamlines, Divergence and Isotachs, Streamlines, Divergence and
WindsWinds
www.spc.noaa.gov
1200 UTC KALB Sounding1200 UTC KALB Sounding
SBCAPE = 644 J kg-1
DCAPE = 305 J kg-1
0-6 km Shear = 49 ktsWBZ HGT = 9.7 kft700-500 hPa LR = 5.6°C km-1
1800 UTC LAPS 1800 UTC LAPS 850-500 hPa Lapse rates850-500 hPa Lapse rates
700-500 hPa lapse rates were also around 7°C km-1
0.50.5º º GFS Lapse Rate AnomaliesGFS Lapse Rate Anomalies16 June 2008/1800 UTC16 June 2008/1800 UTC
Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide
1800 UTC LAPS 1800 UTC LAPS SBCAPE and MSLPSBCAPE and MSLP
Light blue shade to green shade 1000-3000 J kg-1
0.50.5º GFS 16 June 2008/1800 º GFS 16 June 2008/1800 UTCUTC
Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide
1800 UTC Albany 1800 UTC Albany SoundingSounding
-20ºC height =20.2kft
1745 UTC Satellite and 1745 UTC Satellite and LightningLightning
Significant clearing and destabilization occurred across eastern NY
NWS at Albany Forecast NWS at Albany Forecast AreaArea
GR2AnalystGR2Analyst
FSI – Future of Radar FSI – Future of Radar Analysis (AWIPS)Analysis (AWIPS)
Improved vertical cross-sections (Dynamic)Improved vertical cross-sections (Dynamic)
Constant Altitude Planned Position Indicator Constant Altitude Planned Position Indicator (CAPPI) for cross-sections with 8-bit data plotted (CAPPI) for cross-sections with 8-bit data plotted at constant altitudesat constant altitudes
3D Visualizations – 8-bit radar data from 3D Visualizations – 8-bit radar data from elevation scans, vertical cross-sections and elevation scans, vertical cross-sections and CAPPI’s are plotted as 2D textures in a 3D CAPPI’s are plotted as 2D textures in a 3D spacespace
Virtual volume scans – No volume scan is Virtual volume scans – No volume scan is incompleteincomplete
FSIFSI
PPI CAPPI
Vertical Cross-section 3D Flier
16-2300 UTC 0.516-2300 UTC 0.5° Base REF ° Base REF LoopLoop
Thanks to ITO Vasil Koleci for assistance with loop !!!
1855 UTC FSI 1855 UTC FSI
50 dBZ up to 27 kft
KBGM vs. KENX VILKBGM vs. KENX VIL
VIL: 55-60 kg m-2 VIL: 45-50 kg m-2
1855 UTC Cross-Section1855 UTC Cross-Section
-20°C
WER
1855 UTC : Golf Ball Hail 1855 UTC : Golf Ball Hail (1.75”) in Colonie and (1.75”) in Colonie and
2” hail in Guilderland !!!2” hail in Guilderland !!!
1900 UTC 0.51900 UTC 0.5°° Base REF Base REF
Height of 50 dBZ isosurface = 30 kft
1909 UTC: Hail reports kept 1909 UTC: Hail reports kept coming in (CESTM too) !!!coming in (CESTM too) !!!
50 dBZ to 30 kft
1946 UTC: FSI1946 UTC: FSI
65 dBZ to 24 kft !
Wow !
2133 UTC 0.52133 UTC 0.5º Base REFº Base REF
2133 UTC 0.52133 UTC 0.5° Base REF X-° Base REF X-sectionsection
2133 UTC Echo Tops2133 UTC Echo Tops
2133 UTC 50 dBZ 2133 UTC 50 dBZ IsosurfaceIsosurface
2142 UTC “Hail Monster”2142 UTC “Hail Monster”
60 dBZ isosurface up to 30 kft !!!
-20°C
Golf Ball-size hail reported
2142 UTC KENX 4-Panel 2142 UTC KENX 4-Panel Derived ProductDerived Product
Gridded VIL Echo Tops
Layer REF MAX 2 (24-33 kft)
Layer REF MAX3 (33-60 kft)
2146 UTC KENX 4-Panel 2146 UTC KENX 4-Panel Derived ProductDerived Product
Gridded VIL Echo Tops
Layer REF MAX 2 (24-33 kft)
Layer REF MAX3 (33-60 kft)
2146 UTC: Three Body 2146 UTC: Three Body Scatterer/Hail StreakScatterer/Hail Streak……
2146 UTC Base REF 4-2146 UTC Base REF 4-panelpanel
0.5°
3.1°
1.3°
2.4°
2146 UTC: FSI2146 UTC: FSI
50 dBZ well above -20°C
2142 UTC KENX SRM2142 UTC KENX SRM
0.5°0.9°
1.3° 1.8°
Tornado ???
2146 UTC KENX SRM2146 UTC KENX SRM
0.5°0.9°
1.3° 1.8°
ResultsResults
General Severe Weather Synoptic and General Severe Weather Synoptic and Mesoscale Environments identified well Mesoscale Environments identified well
New technology such as FSI aided New technology such as FSI aided forecasters with timely warningsforecasters with timely warnings
Hail ground truth reports were plentifulHail ground truth reports were plentiful
18 SVR’s issued with 15 verified; 1 TOR18 SVR’s issued with 15 verified; 1 TOR
POD = 0.93 (40/43 events); FAR = 0.17; POD = 0.93 (40/43 events); FAR = 0.17; CSI = 0.78; Lead Time = 25.5 minutesCSI = 0.78; Lead Time = 25.5 minutes