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5Charles L. Thornton 24 October 2003

Scope and Nature of the Issuecope and Nature of the Issue

6Charles L. Thornton 24 October 2003

Russias Nuclear Warheadsussias Nuclear Warheads Intact warheadsIntact warheads

StrategicStrategic

Tactical / NonstrategicTactical / Nonstrategic

Custody of the Ministry ofCustody of the Ministry of

DefenseDefense

1212thth Main DirectorateMain Directorate

ServicesServices

StatusStatus

Mated to delivery systemMated to delivery system

In storageIn storage

National stockpileNational stockpile

Deployment siteDeployment site

Temporary locationTemporary location

In transitIn transit

RVSN & 12VSN & 12thh MD SitesD Sites

Source:Kommersant

Vlast, 12 May 2003

STARTTART-Associated / Strategic Facilitiesssociated / Strategic Facilities

Source: U.S.

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17Charles L. Thornton 24 October 2003

Formal DoDormal DoD-MOD AgreementsOD Agreements

NWTS IMPLEMENTING AGREEMENTAPRIL 1995

CTR UMBRELLA AGREEMENT

JUNE 1992

NWSS IMPLEMENTING AGREEMENTAPRIL 1995

PROTOCOLS FOR LIMITED ACCESSFEB 2003

PROTOCOLS ON SENSITIVE INFOFEB 2003

AUDIT & EXAMINATION AGREEMENTOCT 1995

NWTS IMPLEMENTING ARRANGEMENTNOV 1999

NUCLEAR WEAPONS SAFETY&SECURITY

A&E SPECIAL ARRANGEMENTSSEPT 1997

NUCLEAR WEAPONS TRANSPORTATION

18Charles L. Thornton 24 October 2003

Enhancements Assistancenhancements Assistance

Nuclear Weapons Storage SiteEnhancements

PersonnelReliabilityProgram

Dosimeters

ASSESS

Guard ForceTraining

Multi-Level AutomatedWarhead Inventory Control

& Management System

Center forTechnological Diagnostics

Security Assessment & TrainingCenter (SATC) -- Sergiev Posad

Transporting Warheads:ransporting Warheads:Crowning Achievement?rowning Achievement?

NWT Shipment Legs by Category and Month

(As of: 2 Sep 03)

0

12

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-00

Apr-00

Jul-00

Oct-00

Jan-01

Apr-01

Jul-01

Oct-01

Jan-02

Apr-02

Jul-02

Oct-02

Jan-03

Apr-03

Jul-03

Oct-03

Store to Destroy Ops to Destroy Ops to Store

DoD Access to 12oD Access to 12thh MD Sites: Initial TenD Sites: Initial Ten

4

Source:Kommers

Vlast, 12 May 200

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21Charles L. Thornton 24 October 2003

Belgorodelgorod 20km from20km from

UkraineUkraine

6 bunkers6 bunkers

1970 4m image provided1970 4m image provided

by Josh Handler /by Josh Handler /

FAS via NRDCFAS via NRDC

22Charles L. Thornton 24 October 2003

Zhukovkahukovka [Bryanskryansk-18]8 80km from80km from

BelarusBelarus

6 bunkers6 bunkers

IkonosIkonos 1m image by1m image by

SpaceImaging.comSpaceImaging.com

via NRCDvia NRCD

Zhukovkahukovka [BryanskBryansk-18]8] Layers ofLayers of

fencingfencing

appear to beappear to be

newnew

Wall + 2Wall + 2

sensoredsensored

layers + 3layers + 3

mash layersmash layers

U.S. Department of Energy Involvement.S. Department of Energy Involvement Primary recipient: RussianPrimary recipient: Russian

NavyNavy

Number and types of sites:Number and types of sites: Navy storage sites: 5Navy storage sites: 5

SRF storage sites: 2SRF storage sites: 2

Navy operational sites: 27Navy operational sites: 27(scaling back?)(scaling back?)

Navy temporary sites: 4Navy temporary sites: 4

SRF temporary sites: 1+SRF temporary sites: 1+

1212thth MD sites: 1+ (?)MD sites: 1+ (?)

DOE direct involvement in 33DOE direct involvement in 33of 36+ upgradesof 36+ upgrades

DoD is now encouraging DOEDoD is now encouraging DOEto upgrade more sitesto upgrade more sites

Budget and resourceBudget and resourceoverlaps?overlaps?

MOD shopping?MOD shopping?

Issues?Issues?

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29Charles L. Thornton 24 October 2003

Proposal: Consolidationroposal: Consolidation MOD may have been experiencing a shortage of storage spaceMOD may have been experiencing a shortage of storage space

since 1992 or earlier (overflows reported up to 220%)since 1992 or earlier (overflows reported up to 220%)

This problem has persisted and may continueThis problem has persisted and may continue

To reduce the number of facilities, therefore, MOD may need toTo reduce the number of facilities, therefore, MOD may need tosustain or even expand aggregate capacitysustain or even expand aggregate capacity

Concept: trade small sites for large facilitiesConcept: trade small sites for large facilities

CTR assistance to reCTR assistance to re--open recently closed NSSopen recently closed NSS

Shut down deployedShut down deployed--level sites as SORT dictateslevel sites as SORT dictates

Cost may be roughly equivalent to enhancing all of the deployedCost may be roughly equivalent to enhancing all of the deployed--

level siteslevel sites

More upgrades at fewer sites = double security boost for the monMore upgrades at fewer sites = double security boost for the mon eyey

30Charles L. Thornton 24 October 2003

Conclusionsonclusions Is MODIs MODs current state of security inadequate?s current state of security inadequate?

Is Russia prepared to provide acceptable security?Is Russia prepared to provide acceptable security?

DoD finally has access to make significant strides in achievingDoD finally has access to make significant strides in achieving

goals of reducing the threat of proliferation of WMDgoals of reducing the threat of proliferation of WMD U.S. has good relationship with MOD; but, capabilities of RussiaU.S. has good relationship with MOD; but, capabilities of Russiann

government and contractors to absorb substantial influx ofgovernment and contractors to absorb substantial influx ofassistance is questionableassistance is questionable

U.S. contractors are experiencedU.S. contractors are experienced

Benefits of extending cooperative enterprise continues to outweiBenefits of extending cooperative enterprise continues to outweighghcosts and riskscosts and risks

But, foreseeable pace of enhancements raises question of realBut, foreseeable pace of enhancements raises question of realneedneed

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