Thoughts about Population Projections

Applied Demography Conference

January 9, 2014

Qian Cai, University of Virginia

Rebecca Tippett, University of North Carolina

Projection Methodologies

“Looking Into the Past: Thomas Circle, Washington, DC” by Jason E. Powell

Purposes & Use of Projections

Accuracy & Plausibility

http://xkcd.com/605

{Total Population

Sex * Age * {RaceHispanic Origin

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Population Projections

Our Approach

1. is guided by statistical and demographic theories

2. is straightforward, practical, and easy to implement

3. produces reasonable results

Contact

Qian CaiDirector, Demographics Research GroupWeldon Cooper Center, University of Virginiaqian.cai@virginia.edu | (434) 982-5581

Rebecca TippettDirector, Carolina Demography

Carolina Population Center, UNC-Chapel Hillrtippett@unc.edu | (919) 966-2829

http://www.coopercenter.org/demographics/national-population-projections