Threat of OverPopulation

Thomas Malthus Epidemeiologic

Prediction of Doom and Gloom

• Thomas Malthus– 1766 – 1834

• Wrote “An Essay on the principle of Population”

• Population increased faster than food

Population increased faster than food • Population increases Geometrically• Food increased arithmetically

TODAY 2 Persons 2 Unit of food

25 years from now

4 Persons 3 Unit of food

50 Years from now

8 Persons 4 Unit of food

75 Years from now

16 Person 5 Unit of food

100 Years from now

32 Person 6 Unit of food

Neo - Malthusians

• Neo = New, So Neo- Malthusians are people who believe in Malthusians ideas applied to today’s world

• Argue Malthus is more right now but he missed two points– Malthus failed to anticipate that poor countries

would have the most rapid population growth because of medical technology transfer

– World population growth is outstripping a wide variety of resources, not just food.

Malthus Critics

So what is the REALITY of Malthus Theory

Was He Right?

• Better Growing Techniques, higher yield seeds, and cultivating more land

• NIR only declines for two reasons– Lower birth rates – Higher Death rates

• Lower birth rates as a result of education of the woman and Birth Control

Epidemiologic Transition

• Focuses on distinctive causes of death in each stage of demographic transition

• Stage one & Two Founded by Abdel Omran 1971

Stage 1

• Stage 1 – Pestilence and famine– Infectious and parasitic diseases, accidents and

animal attacks, and other humans main cause of death

– Large Scale epidemics like Black Plague• An outbreak of a contagious disease that spreads

rapidly and widely.

Stage 2

• Stage of Receding Pandemics– Pandemic is disease that occurs over a wide

geographic area and affects a very high proportion of the population.

– During the Industrial Revolution more people living in cities making spread of disease easier but improved sanitary reduces death rates

Stage 3

• Stage of Degenerative and Human- created diseases– Decrease in death from infectious disease• Measles, Polio

– Increase in death from chronic disorders associated with aging• Heart Disease like heart attacks• Cancer

Stage 4

• Improved medical knowledge and technology delays diseases and allows people to live longer

Stage 5

• Some believe the world is entering into a 5th stage

• Infectious Diseases are on the Rise– Why• One - Evolution…Diseases are evolving• Second – Poverty…LDC still struggling with these

diseases• Third – Travel…people and goods are easier to travel

spreading diseases

Pandemics

• H5N1 or also known as Avian Flu• H1N1 or also known as Swine Flu• HIV/AIDS

TRUE OR FALSE Quiz

Write down your answers on a sheet to be turned in.

1. Population distribution can be understood by looking at population concentration and population densities.

2. Despite advances in technology and increased crop yields, the majority of people in the world still live in rural areas.

3. Looking at the physiological and agricultural densities of a country, one can estimate the intensity and efficiency of agriculture.

4. The global natural increase rate has been steadily rising since the 1950s, when medicine and technology were diffused throughout the world.

5. Women's rights and educational levels dramatically change fertility rates.

6. Countries approaching zero population growth have extremely low crude death rates.

7. Most countries of the world with extremely high growth rates are still in Stage 1 of the demographic transition.

8. Comparing physiological and arithmetic densities helps geographers understand land food capacity yields for the needs of people.

9. Geographers most frequently measure population change in a country or the world through three measures: the crude birth rate, crude death rate, and migration rate.

10. The use of crude birth rates means that these rates are age-specific.

11. The total fertility rate provides a picture of a society as a whole in a given year, whereas the crude birth rate predicts the future behavior of individual women.

12. The demographic transition of Africa, Asia, and Latin America into Stage 2 was because of a medical revolution.

13. A country moves from Stage 2 to Stage 3 of the demographic transition when the crude death rate begins to drop sharply.

14. There must be 1.5 births per 1000 population before a country can reach zero population growth.

15. Demographers define zero population growth as the total fertility rate that results in a lack of change in the total population over a long term.

16. A country that has completed all four stages of the demographic transition began with little or no natural population increase and ends with little or no natural population increase.

17. The shape of a population pyramid is determined primarily by the distribution of males and females in the population set.

18. Population density is a good indicator of poor economic conditions.

19. Many geographers argue that some human populations have exceeded their carrying capacity

20. If a country's population has a natural increase rate of 2 percent, that population will double in approximately 35 years.

21. Population explosion in the demographic transition is due to an increase in the birth rate.

22. A population pyramid with a broad base represents a population with a high birth rate.

23. Thomas Malthus argued that our ability to breed will exceed our ability to feed.

24. Higher death rates due to epidemic disease, especially AIDS in SubSaharan Africa, will not lower world population growth projections.

25. China's one-child policy has not significantly reduced the country's natural increase rate.