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10/25/2011
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Bi ging 8Tin v chnh sch tin t
Tin v chc nng ca tin
Tin: tr lng ti sn c s dng thc hingiao dch.
Chc nng ca tin: Trung gian trao i D tr gi tr n v tnh ton
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10/25/2011
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Cung tin v c s tin
M: Money Supply: Cung tinM1 = Tin trong lu thng C v tin gi khng
k hnM2 = M1 + tin gi c k hn
Tng qut: M = C + DCung tin l tng s tin c trong lu thng v tin
gi
MB: Money Base - C s tin: MB = C + RC s tin l tng s tin c trong
lu thng v tngtin d tr trong cc ngn hng.
Tin c to ra nh th no?
Ngn hng trung ng in tin Cc ngn hng to ra tin thng qua hot ng
nhn tin gi (Deposit) v cho vay (Loan) D tr (Reserves): c gi bi
cc ngn hng
nhm p ng nhu cu rt tin hay yu cu dtr php nh.
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Techcombank
Ti khon c(Assets)
Ti khon n(Liabilities)
D tr 100Cho vay 900
Ngn hng thng mi v vic to ra tin
Cung tin = 1000 + 900
Tin gi 1,000 ng
Ti khon c(Assets)
Ti khon n(Liabilities)
Cung tin = 1000 + 900 + 810
ACB
Ti khon c(Assets)
Ti khon n(Liabilities)
Cung tin = 1000 + 900+810 + 719
D tr 90Cho vay 810
Tin gi 900
D tr 81Cho vay 719
Tin gi 810
Sau tt c cc vng
Tin gi ban u = 1000+ Khon cho vay ca Bank 1 = 900 = (1-rr)x1000+
Khon cho vay ca Bank 2 = 810 = (1-rr)2x1000+ Khon cho vay ca Bank 3
= 729 = (1-rr)3x1000+ Khon cho vay tip
Tng cung tin = [1 +(1-rr) + (1-rr)2 + (1-rr)3 +]x$1000
= (1/rr ) $1,000 trong rr l t l d tr
y: rr = 0.1, cho nn M = 10,000
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Tin Bc v Ca Ci Cc ngn hng vi h thng d tr mt phn nh th ny
to ra tin, nhng khng to ra ca ci.
Khi mt ngn hng cho vay mt phn t d tr d camnh, ngn hng lm cho ngi
vay c kh nngdng s tin mua bn hng ha, v v th, cung tintng ln.
Ngi vay tuy mua c hng ha nhng mang n cangn hng, v v th, h khng
giu thm.
Ni cch khc, vic to ra tin t h thng ngn hng chlm tng tnh thanh
khon ca nn kinh t, ch khng tora ca ci cho nn kinh t.
Tin c gi tr danh ngha, hng ha v dch v c gi trthc.
Bank 1
Assets Liabilities
D tr $200Cho vay $800
Ngn hng v Tin - V d 2
Tin gi $1,000
Gi s tng tin gi ban u l $1000. Gi s ngn hng gi t l d tr l 20%, v
ngi dn gi t
l tin mt bng 1/3 tin gi.
Cung tin lc ny l bao nhiu?
Ngi dn
Deposit Currency
Gi $600 Gi $200
Cung tin: $200 + $800
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Bank 2
Assets Liabilities
D tr $120Cho vay $480
Vng 2
Tin gi $600
By gi tin gi vo ngn hng l $600
Cung tin lc ny l bao nhiu?
Ngi dn
Deposit Currency
Gi $360 Gi $120
Cung tin: $1000 + $800 + $480
Bank 2
Assets Liabilities
D tr $72Cho vay $288
Vng 3
Tin gi $360
By gi tin gi vo ngn hng l $360
Cung tin lc ny l bao nhiu?
Ngi dn
Deposit Currency
Gi $216 Gi $72
Cung tin: $1000 + $800 + $480 + $288
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S nhn tin (money multiplier) S nhn tin m l t l gia cung tin v c
s tin:
M = m x MB
Trong rr = R/D, v cr = C/D rr nh ngn hng d tr t v cho vay
nhiu
s nhn tin cao cung tin cao. cr nh ngi dn gi li t, gi ngn hng
nhiu ngn hng cng to ra c nhiu tin cung tin cao.
Ngn hng trung ng, ngn hngthng mi, v khu vc t nhn
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Phng trnh s lng tinM x V = P x Y
V: vn tc thu nhp ca tin (income velocity of money): l s ln mt n
v tin c a vo thu nhp caai .
Y: GDP thc, PY: GDP danh ngha M/P = mc cn bng tin thc (real
money balance):
o lng sc mua ca cung tin, hay l lng hngha thc m s tin mua c.
Phng trnh cu tin: th hin lng tin thc mngi ta mun cm trong tay:
(M/P )d = kY
k = hng s, th hin lng tin ngi ta mun ctrong tay cho mi n v thu
nhp (Y)
Thuyt s lng tinGi nh: V khng i, phng trnh s lng tin c vit li
thnh:
Di dng mc tng:
Do V khng i, V/V = 0:
M V P Y
M V P Y
+ = +
M P Y
M P Y
= +
pi
=
M Y
M Y
= M V P Y
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ngha ca thuyt s lng tin Lm pht xut hin khi cung tin tng nhanh hn
tc
hng ha v dch v c sn xut. Tc tng hng ha v dch v ph thuc vo
nng
sut ca nn kinh t (mc tng ca vn v laong, hiu qu sn xut, v tin b
cng ngh).
V th, t l lm pht v t l tng ca cung tin c miquan h 1-1.
V th, ngn hng trung ng, thng qua vic kimsot mc tng ca cung tin,
hon ton c trong taykh nng kim sot v kim ch lm pht.
Milton Friedman: Lm pht lun lun v bt k ucng l mt hin tng tin
t.
Hiu ng Fisher
Phng trnh Fisher: i = r + pipipipi Cn bng th trng vn vay S = I
xc nh li
sut thc r. Lm pht pipipipi tng bao nhiu s dn n li sut
danh ngha tng tng . Chnh xc hn, lm pht k vng pipipipi e tng bao
nhiu
s dn n li sut danh ngha tng tng . Quan h 1-1 ny gi l hiu ng
Fisher.
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Li sut danh ngha v cu tin
(M/P )d = cu tin thc, ph thuc: Nghch bin vi li sut danh ngha
i
i l chi ph c hi, hay gi ca vic gi tin ng bin vi thu nhp thc
Y
Y cng cao chi tiu cng nhiu cn thm nhiu tin
Kt hp vi Fisher: i = r + pipipipi
Cn bng:
( ) ( , )dM P L i Y=
( / ) ( , )pi+=S eM rP L Y
K vng
Thuyt s lng tin MV=PY ni rng cung tin quyt nhmc gi c chung. iu
ny ng, nhng vi iu kin lisut danh ngha khng i, v tng sn lng tng i
cnh.
Nhng thc t li sut danh ngha khng c nh, m phthuc vo k vng v lm
pht.
V vy, hm cu tin dng tng qut cho thy: mc gi chungph thuc c vo
cung tin, v c k vng ca ngi dn v sthay i cung tin trong tng lai.
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19
Khu vc kinh t HG DN NHTW CP N.ngoi TngTi khon quc dnTiu dng -C
+C 0Chnh ph +G -G 0Xut khu +X -X 0Nhp khu -M +M 0
Tng thu nhp/sn lng +Y -Y 0Thu -T +T 0
Lu lng vn
tri phiu chnh ph -Bp -Bcb +B 0 tin mt -H +H 0 d tr ngoi hi -R +R
0
Tng 0 0 0 0 0 0 ti sn/n +W 0 0 -B -R 0Tr lng (cui k)Tri phiu
chnh ph +Bp +Bcb -B 0Tin mt +H -H 0D tr ngoi hi +R -R 0
Tng gp (tng ca ci) +W 0 0 -B -R 0
T l lm pht gi tiu dng(m/m, trung bnh ng 3 thng)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2/2
00
6
4/2
00
6
6/2
00
6
8/2
00
6
10
/20
06
12
/20
06
2/2
00
7
4/2
00
7
6/2
00
7
8/2
00
7
10
/20
07
12
/20
07
2/2
00
8
4/2
00
8
6/2
00
8
8/2
00
8
10
/20
08
12
/20
08
2/2
00
9
4/2
00
9
6/2
00
9
8/2
00
9
10
/20
09
12
/20
09
2/2
01
0
4/2
01
0
6/2
01
0
8/2
01
0
10
/20
10
12
/20
10
2/2
01
1
4/2
01
1
6/2
01
1
China
Indonesia
Vietam
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10/25/2011
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D tr ngoi hitheo s thng nhp khu
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006
I
2006
II
2006
III
2006
IV
2007
I
2007
II
2007
III
2007
IV
2008
I
2008
II
2008
III
2008
IV
2009
I
2009
II
2009
III
2009
IV
2010
I
2010
II
2010
III
2010
IV
2011
I
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Tng trng tn dng, u t v GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20
01
Q4
20
02
Q1
20
02
Q2
20
02
Q3
20
02
Q4
20
03
Q1
20
03
Q2
20
03
Q3
20
03
Q4
20
04
Q1
20
04
Q2
20
04
Q3
20
04
Q4
20
05
Q1
20
05
Q2
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q4
20
06
Q1
20
06
Q2
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q4
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q2
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
11
Q1
Credit growth
GDP growth
Investment growth
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10/25/2011
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Cn i k ton khu vc ngn hng
(200,000)
(150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
M1
20
05
M4
20
05
M7
20
05
M1
0 2
00
5
M1
20
06
M4
20
06
M7
20
06
M1
0 2
00
6
M1
20
07
M4
20
07
M7
20
07
M1
0 2
00
7
M1
20
08
M4
20
08
M7
20
08
M1
0 2
00
8
M1
20
09
M4
20
09
M7
20
09
M1
0 2
00
9
M1
20
10
M4
20
10
M7
20
10
M1
0 2
01
0
M1
20
11
Equity
Credit from SBV
Government deposits
Bonds
Foreign currency deposits and liabilities
Time and demand deposits
Other assets
Loans to businesses and households
Loans to government
Foreign assets
Reserves
Thm ht ngn sch theo phn trm GDP 2007-2010
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Vietnam China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand
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