Deterrence  and  Proportionality  in  Israeli  Military  Doctrine:  The  Second  Lebanon  War  

   

Master’s  Thesis      

Presented  to      

The  Faculty  of  the  Graduate  School  of  Arts  and  Sciences  Brandeis  University    

 Department  of  Near  Eastern  and  Judaic  Studies  

 Kanan  Makiya,  Advisor        

In  Partial  Fulfillment    of  the  Requirements  for  

   

Master’s  Degree      

by  Miriam  Ganem-­‐Rosen          

February  2011  

                                    

Copyright by 

Miriam Ganem‐Rosen  

  

© 2011

  iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS   

 The author would like to express her deep gratitude to Samy Cohen at the CERI in Paris, who gave her the opportunity to research such a fascinating topic and planting the seeds for this thesis over two years ago. She would also like to thank Professor Kanan Makiya, who gave his time and advice in the preparation of this hesis. Finally, she would like to thank her family and friends for their unwavering upport in her academic pursuits. ts                                 

  

  iv

ABSTRACT   

roportionality in Israeli MDeterrence and P ilitary Doctrine:  The Second Lebanon War 

  

A thesis presented to the Department of Near Eastern and Judaic Studies  

  

Gradu ences  

ate School of Arts and SciBrandeis University  

Waltham, Massachusetts 

 By Miriam G nem‐Rosen  a  

 This  paper  asks whether  Israel’s  strategy  of  deterrence  through  disproportionate 

retaliation is effective in its asymmetrical conflicts against non‐state actors. It begins 

with an analysis of the Israeli strategy of deterrence and retaliation methods against 

non‐state actors, surveying  the application of deterrence and retaliation strategies 

from 1948  through  the  1982  Lebanon War.  It  culminates  in  an  analysis  of  Israeli 

involvement  in  Lebanon,  the  rise  of  Hezbollah,  and  the  Second  Lebanon  War  of 

2006. The paper  finds  that  Israel has developed an overreliance on military  force, 

which  leads  it  to  use  it  excessively  in  situations where  it  is  ineffective,  such  as  in 

asymmetrical conflict.  It concludes that not only does the use of excessive  force  in 

asymmetrical  conflict  fail  to  affect  the motivation  or  capabilities  of  the  non‐state 

adversary which would enforce Israeli deterrence, but it also creates humanitarian 

catastrophes,  which  in  turn  bring  about  diplomatic  isolation  and  the 

delegitimization of Israel’s struggle against terrorism.  

  v

  

      

   

“Waging war when they must, warriors are suspected by the many to have an interest in war as an end in itself. Nothing could be further from the truth. No one doubts the utility of war more than the professional warrior, no one shuns it more actively. ‘Violence rarely settles anything’ are the most memorable words I have ever heard, because they were spoken to me by a former Chief of Defence Staff, our country’s most senior serviceman. Equally, both he and I know that there are some things that, when the threat of violence has failed, can be settled by violence alone. 

Violence is the most terrible instrument that the rule of law can take into its use. If we hope to see war driven towards its end, we must not shrink from seeing its causes addressed. Equally, we must not shrink from seeing violence used‐ nor from according honour to those honourable warriors who administer force in the cause of

  

 peace.” ‐ John Keegan, War and Our World  

    “He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight. He will nows how to handle both superior and inferior forces.”  win who k

‐ Sun Tzu, The Art of War            

  vi

TABLE OF CONTENTS   MAPS                                vii  INTRODUCTION                               1   CHAPTER ONE: THE ORIGIN         S OF DETERRENCE                                                       10 ISRAEL’S NATIONAL GOALS                                                                       10 ATIONAL SECURITY ASSUMPTIONS                        11 HE THEORY OF DETERRENCE AND DISPROPORTIONALITY                    18 N

T

 CHAPTER TWO: EARLY USES OF D        ETERRENCE DISPROPORTIONALITY       23  THE BEGINNING OF LOW‐INTENS           ITY WARFARE            24 NTI‐ISRAEL GUERRILLA ORGANIZATIONS                       29 ROM ONE BORDER TO ANOTHER                         32 A

F

 C  RET  LEBANON                36 HAPTER THREE: DETERRENCE AND ALIATION IN            THE RISE OF THE SHIAH IN            LEBANON               36 SRAELI INVOLVEMENT IN LEBANON           I  AND THE 1982 LEBANON WAR       51 THE RISE OF HEZBOLLAH                           44 ISRAELI REACTIONS TO HEZBOLLAH, 2000‐20             06         64 VERVIEW OF THE SECOND LEBANON WAR                       67 HE DISPROPORTIONATE USE OF FORCE IN THE 2006 WAR                    72 O

T

 CHAPTER FOUR: CONSEQUENCES OF DISPROPORTIO ATION       NATE RETALI 79 RESULTS OF THE 2006 WAR AND THE F             

      

 AILURE OF DETERRENCE        79 

THE DIPLOMATIC CONSE                       89 QUENCES OF THE EXCESSIVE USE OF FORCE    INTERNATIONAL LAW                                   92 RFARE                                             97 

RETALIATION IN 

MORALITY IN WA

   CONCLUSION                                          104 

IBLIOGRAPHY                         110  B 

    

    

 

 MAPS 

Map 1: Lebanon, Beirut, and the Israeli­Lebanese Border 

 Source: “Middle East crisis: Key maps.” BBC News. ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/629/629/5177932.stm h               

 vii

   Map 2: Southern Lebanon and the Israeli­Lebanese Border 

 Source: Wikipedia. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/BlueLine.jpg. Made by Thomas Blomberg, using the UNIFIL map, “Deployment as of July 2006” as eference. r        

  

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