PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING
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Slide 3
What is consequence modelling? Effects from accident (e.g.
release or explosion) Strict physical effect (e.g. overpressure
from explosion, flow from release and concentration at distance)
Overall effect on human safety (e.g. injuries from overpressure or
injuries from toxic concentration) 3 SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE
MODELLING Content slide
Slide 4
What is included in consequence modelling? -Dispersion (gas)
-Vaporization and dispersion (liquid to gas) -Release (flow liquid
and gas) -Explosion (overpressure) -Jet fire/pool fire (extent and
thermal radiation) -Toxicity (gas) -Smoked and gas ingress
(buildings) -Structural integrity -Domino effects (e.g. BLEVE) 4
SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING
Slide 5
Specialized software (specific consequence model) versus
software packages (several consequence models) Somewhat a question
of wanted level of detail (e.g. urban area or rural area and
topography) Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity,
stage of project and time) Economical and technological aspects
(e.g. costs for license and knowledge of the software) No single
best software to solve all problems 5 SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE
MODELLING
Slide 6
Different methods and philosophy for consequence modelling
Empirical consequence models (based on experiments) versus CFD
models (advanced numerical calculations) 6 SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE
MODELLING
Slide 7
PHAST from DNVGL Canary from QUEST EFFECTS from TNO TRACE from
Safer Systems FRED from Shell ALOHA from EPA Different methods and
philosophy for consequence modelling Software established by
consultant companies, authorities, companies (e.g. oil and gas
industry and process industry) and software companies All of the
software listed to the right is empirical consequence models
SOFTWARE FOR CONSEQUENCE MODELLING Light blue fact box 7
Slide 8
Software package from DNVGL - Discharge and dispersion models -
Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires, pool
fires and fireballs) - Explosion models - Models for the toxic
hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic dose) Continuously developed
for over 30 years Used frequently in the oil- and gas industry
(e.g. BP, Total, Maersk and Shell) 8 SOFTWARE: PHAST
Slide 9
Strengths of PHAST All-round Simple (i.e. easy to learn)
Possibility to connect to SAFETI (QRA software) Weaknesses of PHAST
Limitations in congested areas Limitations in urban areas (i.e.
obstacles and topography) 9 SOFTWARE: PHAST
Slide 10
10 SOFTWARE: PHAST
Slide 11
Ringsted, Denmark - 30 gas pipeline - 80 bar - shopping centre
at 100 meters 11 EXAMPLE OF PHAST
Slide 12
- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m 2 injuries from short
exposure) 130 meter - Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m 2
fatalities from medium exposure) 100 meter - Jetfire (yellow -
radiation 37.5 kw/m 2 fatalities from short exposure) 70 meter 12
EXAMPLE OF PHAST
Slide 13
- Flashfire (green - LEL) 100 meter - Flashfire (blue - LEL)
230 meter 13 EXAMPLE OF PHAST
Slide 14
Software (free) from EPA in USA -Discharge and dispersion
models -Flammability models (e.g. radiation effects from jet fires,
pool fires and fireballs) -Explosion models -Models for the toxic
hazards (e.g. indoor and outdoor toxic dose) Part of the CAMEO
software package (i.e. tools for emergency planning) 14 SOFTWARE:
ALOHA
Slide 15
- Jetfire (blue - radiation 4 kw/m 2 injuries from short
exposure) 80 meter - Jetfire (green - radiation 12.5 kw/m 2
fatalities from medium exposure) 40 meter - Jetfire (yellow -
radiation 37.5 kw/m 2 fatalities from short exposure) 30 meter 15
EXAMPLE OF ALOHA
Slide 16
- Flashfire (green - LEL) 340 meter - Flashfire (blue LEL) 500
meter 16 EXAMPLE OF ALOHA
Slide 17
Short for: computational fluid dynamics Not a specific software
(i.e. group of software) -CFX CFD from ANSYS Uses numerical methods
and algorithms to solve and analyse problems that involve fluid/gas
flows Could be applicable for wide range of problems 17 SOFTWARE:
CFD
Slide 18
Could be applicable for wide range of problems - Aerodynamics
(e.g. aircrafts and cars) - Hydrodynamics (e.g. ships) - Power
plants (e.g. combustion in gas turbines) - Process equipment (e.g.
flows and loads) - Process equipment (e.g. heat transfer and
cooling) - Marine structures (e.g. loads) - Environment (e.g.
exhaust and dispersion) - Hydrology (e.g. flows in rivers and
flooding) - Buildings (e.g. ventilation) 18 SOFTWARE: CFD
Slide 19
19 SOFTWARE: CFD
Slide 20
20 SOFTWARE: CFD
Slide 21
21 SOFTWARE: CFD
Slide 22
Strengths of CFD Applicable for complex situations (e.g. urban
areas and topography) Weaknesses of CFD Resources (e.g. man-hours,
knowledge and economy) 22 SOFTWARE: CFD