Tools and Technologies for Water Resources Planning and Climate Change Adaptation

Tools and Technologies for water resources planning and climate change adaptation

Dr. Chusit Apirumanekul / Dr. Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos / Miaojie Sun

Session 3

Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation for Bhutan

26th February, 2015

Bangkok, Stockholm Environment Institute, Asia Centre

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Objectives

To achieve basic understanding on steps in water resources planning

To have better understanding on tool/technology that can be used for water resource planning and climate change adaptation

To jointly assess the impacts of climate changes on water resources in Nepal

To brainstorm the options to address the identified issues for planning processes

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Contents

Section 1 : Introduction to Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and decision support tools

Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for IWRM

Section 3 : Group works

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Background of IWRM Water is a key driver of economic

and social development Drivers such as demography,

economic growth and climatic variability increase the stress on water resources

Decision makers have difficulties on water allocation

The basis of IWRM is that different uses of water are interdependent

Integrated management considers different uses of water resources together

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Basis of IWRM

The basis of IWRM is that different uses of water are considered together.

Navigation Industrial

Flood protection Mining

Irrigation Electricity

Domestic and commercial Fishery

Environmental control / ecosystem Salinity

Recreation / tourism etc

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IWRM definition

IWRM is a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems.

GWP, TAC Background Paper No. 4: Integrated Water Resources Management

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IWRM definition

IWRM (Bogardi and Nachtnebel 1994; Kindler 2000) is a systematic approach to planning and management that considers a range of supply-side and demand-side processes and actions, and incorporates stakeholder participation in decision processes.

http://www.dwaf.gov.za/iwrm/contents/about/what_is_iwrm.asp(adapted from GWP (2010))

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Driving forces for water resources Population growth: more people, more water demands

Urbanization: migration from rural to urban areas leading to water supply and waste water treatment issues

Economic growth: increased demand for economic activities and land use change

Water quality: pollution from industrial, agricultural and municipal sources

Climate variability: more intense floods and droughts increase vulnerability of people (uncertainty about water cycle regimes)

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9Establish status and overall goals

Water resources issues Goals and progress towards

IWRM framework Recent international

developments

Analyse gaps

Water resources management function required

Management potentials and constraints

Build commitment to reform process

Political will Awareness Multi stakeholder dialogue

Prepare strategy and action plan

Enabling environment Institutional roles Management instruments Links to national policies

Implement frameworks

IWRM framework Framework for water

infrastructure development Build capacity

Monitor and evaluate progress

Indicators of progress towards IWRM and water infrastructure development framework

Build commitment to actions

Political adoption Stakeholder acceptance Identifying financing

The IWRM Planning Cycle

Source : http://www.gwp.org/en/The-Challenge/What-is-IWRM/IWRM-Application/

IWRM has no fixed beginnings or endings

Data collection and data analysis

Communication and stakeholder

engagement

Regulatory instruments

standards, land use plan, subsidies,

charges, taxes and etc.

Allocation and conflict resolutions

Decision Support Tools

What are Decision Support Tools - DST?

Interactive procedures, software and databases to assist in making informed

decisions

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Decision Support Tool (DST)

There is always a wide range of data available to the decision-maker

Decision Support Tool is to provide information in a form that readily supports the decision

Water resource management meteorological data, hydrologic data, geologic data, landscape, landuse, population and etc.

The use of DST to assist in water resource management issues constitute some amounts of work being performed on developing computer based decision support tools to facilitate the analysis processes.

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DST to understand the integration

in the natural systems:

between land and water

between rainfall, surface water and groundwater

between water quantity and quality

between upstream and downstream

between the freshwater system and the coastal waters

Reference: IWRM at a Glance. Global Water Parnership GWP. (http://www.gwp.org/Global/The%20Challenge/Resource%20material/IWRM%20at%20a%20glance.pdf)

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Functions of DST

Organize data (databases)

Visualize data

Analyze

System Modeling

Communication

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Examples of Decision Support Tools

Geographical Information Systems

Geodatabases

Remote Sensing

Spatial Analysis

Web-visualization

Spatial Analysis of flow Accumulation in Ayeyarwady Delta. In: Theilen-Willige, B., & Pararas-Carayannis, G. (2009). Natural hazard assessment of SW Myanmar-a contribution of remote sensing and GIS methods to the detection of areas vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunami/cyclone flooding. Science of Tsunami Hazards, 28(2), 108

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Hydrological Modeling

River Flow

Groundwater Flow

Water Quality

Flood

Water use

Reservoir Management

WEAP and MODFLOW modelling. Available at: http://www.bgr.bund.de/EN/Themen/Wasser/Projekte/abgeschlossen/TZ/Acsad_dss/dss_fb_en.html

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Climate Change Models

Trends in temperature and rainfall

Vulnerability to climate change (based on social and economic data)

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Reference: eWater Source Australia's national hydrological modelling platform (http://www.ewater.com.au/products/ewater-source/)

Will there be some climate change?

What happens if we add an irrigation project?

If we deforest an area, what is the effect on river flow and sediments?

And if we build a new water infrastructure, what are the

benefits and costs?

Considering the expected city growth, When will there be conflict with upstream water use?

If we change the crop, what is the effect on river sediments?

Practical use of DST in IWRM

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Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for IWRM

1. Structural measures Flood control structures

Water harvesting

2. Non-structural measures Modelling

Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS)

Weather indexes

Early warning system

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Structural measure

Viewing as structural hard-engineered interventions, such as floodway and reservoir, as well as more natural measures, such as wetlands and natural buffers

Reducing flood and drought hazards by controlling the flow of water in rivers and streams.

Tending to transfer flood risk from one location only to increase it in another

Remaining some residual risk of

flooding

Keeping water away from people

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Structural measures Flood control structures (1/2)

Flood Storage / Reservoir

Confinement of flow by dyke, levee or embankment

Channel improvement

Bypass channels or floodways

Drainage of flood water by pumping

NICOLAS ASFOURI AFP/Getty Images

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Structural measures Flood control structures (2/2)

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Structural measure - Rainwater harvesting (1/5)

The term rainwater harvesting refers to reuse of stored water, including water purification, and can form part of a sustainable drainage system

Most commonly, reuse will be for purposes which are less sensitive to water quality (such as irrigation, washing or toilet flushing).

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Provisioning

Can increase crop productivity, food supply and income

Can increase water and fodder for livestock and poultry

Can increase infiltration, thus recharging shallow groundwater sources and river base flow

Improves productive habitats, and increases species diversity in flora and fauna

Regulating

Can affect the temporal distribution of water in landscape

Reduces fast flows and reduces incidences of flooding

Reduces soil erosion

Bridges water supply in droughts and dry spells

Stop polluted runoff before reaching waterbodies

Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century (World Bank, 2011)

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The storage of rainwater in numerous small tanks helps in reducing peak runoff and controlling overflowing of drainage infrastructure.

This is more cost effective than storing rainwater in larger reservoirs or improving the carrying capacity of the drainage infrastructure.

This however requires effective public participation and awareness generation.

http://hk-magazine.com/city-living/article/underground-hong-kong

Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century (World Bank, 2011)

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Rainwater harvesting (4/5) Example in Brazil

Mountainous context: Few plain places with deep

soil, to dig larger ponds

Difficult access for tractors

Embankment ponds in steep slopes can break and offer more risks

Many small scattered embankment ponds may offer less risk

Ponds along roads to facilitate the access

Source: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/14270801

Source : http://projetobarraginhas.blogspot.com/2012/09/fazendas-produtoras-de-agua-primeira.html

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Rainwater harvesting (5/5) - Household level

Rainfall

Roof top collection

Open space harvesting

Direct storage

Groundwater recharge

Filtering chamber

Use

Source: Chennai Metro Water. http://chennaimetrowater.gov.in/departments/rainwater.htm

http://www.bloggang.com/viewblog.php?id=lifeinbelgique&date=01-06-2011&group=27&gblog=1

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Non-structural measure

Based on the concept of risk awareness -how to live with flood and drought

Preventing flood and drought damage based on acceptance them as natural processes that cannot be completely controlled

NOT related to infrastructure

Ex:

Changing crop patterns

Keeping people away from water

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Example of flood routing models

Hydrologic routing (simple) balancing of inflow, outflow and volume of storage through use of continuity equation

Hydraulic routing (complex) more accurate and is based on solution of

continuity equation

momentum equation

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t

A

x

Q0)(

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fo SSg

x

yg

A

Q

xAt

Q

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Hydrological and Hydraulics model Hydrological modelSimulation of processes in turning rainfall into surface runoff and simplified channel runoff

Hydraulics modelSimulation of flood propagation in the channel (open channel / closed conduit) which may include backwater effects, flow through hydraulics structure and 2-D flows)

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Hydrological / Rainfall-

Runoff Model

1D&2D Hydraulic

model / flood routing

Flood map (50-year

return period)

Rainfall analysis 50-year return period rainfall event

Flood modelling system

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Crest Model for Bhutan

CREST Coupled Routing and Excess Storage

Hydrological Model for each cell in a raster

Weather + Surface characteristics

Water Balance

Excess of water is routed downstream to next cellSource: Crest 2.1. User Manual. National Weather Center. Norman, USA. 2015.http://hydro.ou.edu/files/Crest_Workshops/CRESTv2.1/CREST-User-Manual-v2.1_Fortran.pdf

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Crest Viewer - Bhutan

Available at: http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanCrest/#32

Case Study Impact of Climate Change in Bhutan Rivers

Simulated climate change of + 1.5 oC in 2050 and 2 scenarios of +2.5 oC and + 4.9 oC for 2100

HBV (Hydrologiska ByrnsVattenbalansavdelning) Hydrological Model Distributed model (cell by cell analysis)

Input: rainfall, temperature and land use

Calibrated with gauging stations

Output for each cell: stream flow, evaporation, soil moisture, groundwater storage

Beldring, S. 2011. Climate change impacts on the flow regimes of rivers in Bhutan and possibleconsequences for hydropower development. NVE.Available at: webby.nve.no/publikasjoner/report/2011/report2011_04.pdf

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ResultsChange in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2050,

model Echam A2

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ResultsChange in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2100,

model Echam A2

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NON-STRUCTURAL : GIS

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Source:http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/http://www.esri.com/what-is-gis

Geographic Spatial data related to the Earth

Information Other attribute data in tabulate as information about each of the spatial feature

System A technology that allows you to visualize, question, analyze,and interpret data

What is GIS?

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How data is stored?

Layers

Source:http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/

Attributes in the Geodatabase

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Case Study in Bhutan

Glaciers have retreated by 20-30 meters annually especially in the Bhutan Himalayas, leading to a rough estimation of about 500 meters retreat in the last 25 years.

Source: Chhophel, Mr. Karma G. Climate

change adaptation and glof risk reduction in

the region and beyond: current developments

and opportunities. In: Glacial Lake Outburst

Flood (GLOF) Reducing Risks and Ensuring

Preparedness. 5-7 December, 2013.

Proceedings Summary.

Karma. 2008. Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan. Department of Geology and Mines. NCAP.

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Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan

http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanGlacier/index.html#Mountain Geoportal. Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan App. Servir Himalaya.

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WEAP : WATER EVALUATION AND PLANNING SYSTEM

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Integrates stream flow and water demands Exploration of future scenarios for decision support

Changes in water use Strategies for allocation Structural measures (e.g., reservoirs) Climate change

Many sub-models (glacial melting, finance, groundwater, hydropower, water quality, among others)

Developed by Stockholm Environment Institute Free license for government, academic and non-profit

organizations in developing countries

Available at: http://www.weap21.org/42

Case Study WEAP model for Andes mountains of Peru(Rmac and Santa Basins)

Andes in Peru. Photo: SEI/IRD - 2010

Modeling the hydrological impacts of climate change in glacial mountains

SEI and IRD. 2010. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology. World Bank Reports. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2278

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Results of the model

Accelerated glacier melting

Changes in mountain wetlands

hydrology (environmental impact)

Average discharge decrease

Reduction in peak flow discharge

Changes in glaciers in 2036 with+ 2 degrees celsius

Reduction of 21% of discharge in La Balsa sub-basin

Different scenarios of climate change in 2040

+ 0.5 degrees+ 2 degrees

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WEAP : WATER CITY MANAGEMENT BANGKOK CASE

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Water SupplyMWA water supply Chao Phraya River : 60 m3/s

Mae Klong Dam : 45 m3/s

Residential, Industrial and others

Groundwater supply Unlimited supply

Private withdrawal in any province

Percentage of non-residential water supplies from MWA

Sources of surface water supply

Source of GW supply

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Water demand

Water demand from residence is estimated by LPCD (litre per capita per day) multiplied by 365 days (200 LPCD)

Other water demands (business, industrial, public and others) is obtained from MWA water sale by sectors in Nonthaburi and Samutprakarn

LPCD in Bangkok has been increasing

Water consumption = Fn (household size, rising income and water price)

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NON-STRUCTURAL : WEATHER INDEXES (DROUGHT INDEX)

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Approaches to analyze droughts

Meteorological

Hydrological

Vegetational

SocioeconomicSource: Wilhite, D.A. and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int., 10:111-120.

Runoff generation

Water use

Rainfall

Evaporation

Stream flow

Water in the soil

Means to access water

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SPEI Standardized Precipitation Index

WMO. 2012. Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide.Available at: http://www.wamis.org/agm/pubs/SPI/WMO_1090_EN.pdf

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Precipitation Evapotranspiration(calculated from temperature)

SPEI Values

SPEI

Global drought monitor. http://sac.csic.es/spei/map/maps.html

Monitoring SPEI - November 2014

NON-STRUCTURAL : EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

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Flash Flood Monitoring

Mekong River Commission Flash Flood Guidance system

To provide real-time informational guidance products for flash flood warning (diagnostic system, NOT prediction)

A rapid evaluation on the potential for a flash flood for a specific location

Flash Flood Guidance = Satellite rainfall estimate + telemetry system + soil moisture

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Soil Water Saturation Fraction Satellite Estimate Rainfall

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Flash Flood Guidance

1-hour 3-hour

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Group exercises (60+30 mins)

1. Divide into 3 groups (Southwest, Middle and East) and discuss on characteristics, climate pattern and climate change impacts on climate pattern (5 mins)

2. List out the impacts of CC on water resources issues in details (10 mins)

3. Discuss on the potential tools/technologies (10 mins)

4. Identify gaps on those identified tools/technologies (15 mins)

5. Discuss on potential solutions to address the gaps (20 mins)

6. Report to plenary + comments (30 mins : 10 mins each)

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Documents

Tools and Technologies for Water Resources Planning and Climate Change Adaptation