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1 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Top Trends in Management Accounting and Enterprise Performance Management
(EPM) Methods
Gary Cokins, CPIM Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
Cary, North Carolina USA
www.garycokins.com
919 720 2718
SAP Switzerland
March 18, 2014
Geneva, Switzerland
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
2 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
About Gary Cokins Founder, Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
B.S. Industrial Engineering & Operations Research; Cornell
University, 1971
M.B.A. Finance & Accounting; Northwestern University,
Kellogg Graduate School of Management, 1974
Previous Associations:
- FMC Corporation
- Consultant with: Deloitte,
KPMG Peat Marwick,
Electronic Data Systems [EDS, now HP]
- SAS Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
3 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Managers who have previously struggled at
promoting FP&A, enterprise performance
management (EPM) and integrating business
analytics (BA) into their decision support systems.
Who will benefit from this presentation?
Managers who intend to “champion” any or all EPM
and BA improvement techniques and need a
compelling call to action.
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
4 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Key questions
What? So what? Then what?
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
5 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Drowning in data but starving for information.
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
6 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
AGENDA
Eras of management accounting and cost model stages of maturity
#7 Why is the adoption rate for EPM so slow?
Top Trends:
1. The expansion from product to channel and customer profitability analysis.
2. Integration of mgmt. accounting with EPM / CPM.
3. The shift from historic to predictive accounting.
4. Imbedding analytics into mgmt. accounting and EPM
5. Debates over costing methods (e.g., lean, TDABC)
6. Managing IT as a business (chargebacks, SLAs).
7. Recognition that “change management” is critical.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
7 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Six Eras of Managerial Accounting
20,000 BC 1492 1910 1930 1980 2015
Stone
Age
Medieval
Industrial
Regulatory
Compliance
Consumer
Predictive
Analytics
Era
Of
Costing
Maturity
A shift of
emphasis from
a historical to a
predictive view
of strategy and
operations
precious metal
and paper
money piles,
ultimately
leading to
double-entry
bookkeeping
(Luca Pacioli,
1496).
standard cost
accounting (to
reflect
Frederick
Winslow
Taylor’s
manufacturing
scientific
methods, 1910)
The USA’s
Great
Depression
resulted in
regulatory
reforms to
protect
investors
(1930s).
“Causal” cost
tracing of
increasingly
diverse types
of products,
services,
channels and
customers
Rocks and
stone piles.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
8 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
AGENDA
Eras of management accounting and cost model stages of maturity
Why is the adoption rate for EPM so slow?
Top Trends:
1. The expansion from product to channel and customer profitability analysis.
2. Integration of MA with EPM / CPM.
3. The shift from historic to predictive accounting.
4. Imbedding analytics into MA and EPM
5. Debates over costing methods (e.g., lean, TDABC)
6. Managing IT as a business (chargebacks, SLAs).
7. Recognition that “change management” is critical.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
9 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Products and standard service-lines are not the only
thing for which accountants should compute costs.
What about costs that have nothing to do with products
and standard service-lines?
The problem with traditional accounting’s gross margin
reporting is you don’t see the bottom half of the picture.
BIG TREND #1: The shift from product-centric to customer-centric profitability analysis.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
10 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
A simple explanation of ABC.
Mistrust of the managerial
accounting system … … for accuracy and transparency lead to
applying activity-based costing (ABC).
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
11 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Insurance Claims Processing Department
The General Ledger View is Structurally Deficient for Decision Analysis.
Salaries Equipment Travel expense Supplies Use and occupancy Total
$621,400
161,200
58,000
43,900
30,000
$914,500
$600,000
150,000
60,000
40,000
30,000
$880,000
$(21,400)
(11,200)
2,000
(3,900)
––
$(34,500)
Plan Actual Favorable/
(unfavorable)
Chart-of-Accounts View
When managers get this kind of report, they are
either happy or sad, but they are rarely any smarter!
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
12 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
#of
Activity-Based View
To: ABC Data Base
Key/scan claims
Analyze claims
Suspend claims
Receive provider inquiries
Resolve member problems
Process batches
Determine eligibility
Make copies
Write correspondence
Attend training
Total
$ 31,500
121,000
32,500
101,500
83,400
45,000
119,000
145,500
77,100
158,000
$914,500
Claims Processing Dept
Salaries Equipment Travel expense Supplies Use and occupancy Total
$621,400
161,200
58,000
43,900
30,000
$914,500
$600,000
150,000
60,000
40,000
30,000
$880,000
$(21,400)
(11,200)
2,000
(3,900)
––
$(34,500)
Plan Actual Favorable/
(unfavorable)
Claims Processing Department
Chart-of-Accounts View
From: General Ledger Activity
cost
drivers
#of #of #of #of #of #of #of #of
#of
$914,500
Each Activity Has Its Own Cost Driver
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
13 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Multiple-Stage Cost Assignment Tracing
Simple ABM
Expanded ABM
Resources
Resources
Activities
Objects
Objects
Activities
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
14 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
ABC/M Cost Assignment Network
Salary, Fringe
Benefits
Direct
Material
Phone,
Travel
Supplies Depreciation
Rent,
Interest,
Tax
Customers
Business
Sustaining
Products,
Services
Resources (general ledger view)
Work
Activities (verb-noun)
Final
Cost
Objects
Suppliers
(1)
Dem
and
s O
n W
ork
C
ost
s (2
)
“C
ost
s M
easu
re t
he
Eff
ects
”
Support
Activities
Equipment
Activities
People
Activities
“cost-to-serve”
paths
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
15 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
# 1- Customer retention versus acquisition costs.
# 2 – Sources of Competitive Advantage –
Commoditization leading to service-differentiation.
Why Do Customer-related Costs Matter?
# 3 – From mass selling to one-to-one customer
relationships.
# 4 – The internet’s irreversible shift of power from
sellers to buyers.
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
16 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
17 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
CUSTOMER: XYZ CORPORATION (CUSTOMER #1270)
Sales $$$ Margin $ Margin
(Sales - Costs) % of Sales
Product-Related
Supplier-Related costs (TCO) $ xxx $ xxx 98%
Direct Material xxx xxx 50%
Brand Sustaining xxx xxx 48%
Product Sustaining xxx xxx 46%
Unit, Batch* xxx xxx 30%
Distribution-Related
Outbound Freight Type* xxx xxx 28%
Order Type* xxx xxx 26%
Channel Type* xxx xxx 24%
Customer-Related
Customer-Sustaining xxx xxx 22%
Unit-Batch* xxx xxx 10%
Business Sustaining xxx xxx 8%
Operating Profit xxx 8%
* Activity Cost Driver Assignments use measurable quantity volume of Activity Output
(Other ActvityAssignments traced based on informed (subjective) %s)
Product-
related
costs
Channel &
Customer-
related
costs
A Customer Profit & Loss Statement
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
18 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
High (Creamy)
Low (Low Fat)
Low High
Cost-to-Serve
Product Mix Margin
Very
Profitable
Very
unprofitable
Types of Customers
Migrating Customers to Higher Profitability
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
19 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
The CFO must now help Sales and
Marketing … to better target customers.
Segmentation, predictability, churn, offers, deals,
risk and uncertainty must be understood in the
language of money.
A Shift in the CFO’s Emphasis
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
20 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Vision & Mission
Balanced Scorecard
Strategy Mapping
A Vision statement answers
“where do we want to go?
Strategy maps and scorecards answer,
“How will we get there?”
The strategy map and scorecard are mechanical.
They help realize the vision and mission. Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
BIG TREND #2: Integration of management accounting with enterprise performance management (EPM)
21 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Vision & Mission
Exceed shareholder expectations
Improve profit margins
Increase sales volume
Diversify income stream
Increase sales to existing customers
Diversify customer base
Test new products
Target profitable market segments
develop new products
Optimize internal processes
Attract new customers
Develop employee skills
Integrate systems
Learning
& Growth
Internal
Process
Customer
Financial
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
22 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Vision & Mission
Exceed shareholder expectations
Improve profit margins
Increase sales volume
Diversify income stream
Increase sales to existing customers
Diversify customer base
Test new products
Target profitable market segments
develop new products
Optimize internal processes
Attract new customers
Develop employee skills
Integrate systems
Learning
& Growth
Internal
Process
Customer
Financial
A learning environment
stimulates
Process excellence
Customer intimacy
Financial value
leads to
creating
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
23 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
KPIs (strategic context)
Must have
targets
PIs (operational)
With
targets
Without
targets
- Trends
- Upper / lower
thresholds
Project-based
KPIs
Process-based
KPIs
Scorecard
(inter-related
measures with
cause-and-effect
correlations)
Dashboard
(measures in isolation)
Budget &
Resource
Planning
Strategy
Diagram Measurements
$ $
Frequency of
reporting
quarterly
monthly
weekly
daily
hourly
real-time
Without
targets
- drill-down analysis
- alert messages
What is the difference between KPIs and PIs?
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
24 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
(1) Traditional budgeting
--> EPM-based budgeting
--> Rolling financial forecasts
(2) Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) (for business-to-consumer, B2C)
BIG TREND #3: Predictive Accounting Trends
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
25 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
(1) Traditional budgeting
-> EPM-base budgeting
-> Rolling financial forecasts
(2) Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) (for business-to-consumer, B2C)
BIG TREND #3: Predictive Accounting Trends
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
26 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Why is the budgeting process broken?
The budget is typically a fiscal exercise by the accountants that is: -- disconnected from the executive team’s strategy. -- not based on future driver volumes.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
27 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Current Year Budget Year
Wages 400,000.00$ Formula = Column B * 1.05
Supplies 50,000.00$
Rent 20,000.00$ Copy down
Computer 40,000.00$
Travel 30,000.00$
Phone 20,000.00$
Total 560,000.00$
a b c
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Sheet 1
Spreadsheet Budgeting – It is Incremental !!
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
28 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Match the Budget Method to its Category
Demand-
driven
Project-
driven
Integrated
Budget (Rolling
Financial Forecasts)
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
29 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Customers and Service-recipients
Resources
Process Costs
Output & Outcome Costs
inputs
Resource
expenses can
be calculated
with
“backwards
ABC/M”
Start Here.
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
Recurring Expenses // Future Volume & Mix
30 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Accounting Treatments and Behavior of Capacity (expenses)
Now Past Future
Descriptive
Predictive
unused
used
sunk
fixed (unavoidable)
variable (adjustable
capacity;
avoidable)
Traceable to
products,
channels,
customers,
sustaining
unused
Predictive Accounting
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
31 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
High
Low
Low High
Severity of impact on
event occurrence and
achievement
of objectives
probability of an event occurring
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Assessment Grid
8
10 3
4
5
6
7
1 9
2
Do not budget
Budget
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
32 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Recurring expenses
Non-recurring expenses
Demand- driven
Project- driven
volume & mix
of drivers
production and
ABP/B
strategy map and risk grid
Integrated Budget
(rolling financial
forecasts)
Budget method
Strategic & risk
mitigation projects
Match the Budget Method to its Category
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
33 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Define and adjust
strategy and risk, and
create strategy map
Create balanced
scorecard
Identify and
manage strategic
initiatives
Approve strategy
risk and capital
budget
Managerial
Accounting (e.g., Activity-based
Costing)
Derived budget
(and rolling
financial forecasts)
Strategy methods
(e.g., SWOT)
Manage and
improve core
processes
Financial Modeling
KPI dashboard
feedback
(2) capital budget
(3) strategy budget
(4) risk budget
Operational Modeling (by employee teams) Strategic
objectives
knowledge
= financial information (e.g. $)
Strategy Modeling (by executives)
priority projects and processes
Forecast drivers (e.g. sales) ;
develop production plan
Traditional and
driver-based
budgeting (e.g. PBB)
Capacity
resource plan
Driver volumes and mix
Results and outcomes
Changes and responses
e.g., hours, Pounds,
# employees
(1) Operational budget
KPI targets
Driver consumption rates
Acceptable?
Revise
plan
OK
No
Yes
Linking Strategy and Risk to the Budget
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
35 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Marginal / Incremental Expense Analysis
Most savvy managers know that some expenses are
fixed short-term and variable long term.
They want to know the financial impact of a decision.
Decision examples:
• Adding / dropping products, channels, or customers
• Make versus buy
• Outsourcing or not
• Capital investment justification
• Budgeting / rolling financial forecasts
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
36 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
(1) Traditional budgeting
-> EPM-base budgeting
-> Rolling financial forecasts
(2) Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) (for business-to-consumer, B2C)
BIG TREND #3: Predictive Accounting Trends
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
37 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Who is more important to pursue with the scarce
resources of our marketing spend budget?
Our most profitable customers?
Or our most valuable customers?
What is the difference?
The “customer lifetime value” is intended to
answer this question.
Customer Value Management
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
38 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Dentist A
Sales = $750,000
profits = $100,000
Age 61
Dentist B
Sales = $375,000
profits = $40,000
Age 25
Which is more profitable?
Which is more valuable?
Imagine you are pharmaceutical supplier. Which Customer is more Important?
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
39 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
BIG TREND #4 … Analytics: Work backwards with the end in mind.
Regardless how Business Analytics should be defined,
there should be no argument as to its purpose:
Better decisions. Better actions.
BA’s goal should be to gain insights and solve problems,
to make better and quicker decisions with more accurate
and fact-based data, and to take actions.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
40 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Improving Performance by Unifying EPM and BA
-- BI Reporting consumes stored information.
-- Analytics produces new information.
-- Enterprise Performance Management deploys Analytics.
It is not about monitoring the dials on a dashboard,
but rather moving the dials.
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
41 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Queries simply answer questions. Business analytics
creates questions.
Further, analytics then stimulate more questions, more
complex questions, and more interesting questions.
Most importantly, business analytics also has the
power to answer the questions.
Business Analytics automates the “shortcuts”
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
42 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Time-Driven ABC (TDABC) is an alternative method
for activity drivers … and applies under conditions: • highly repetitive activities,
• less interest in indirect expenses,
• concerns about unused capacity costs.
Lean accounting can co-exist with one or more other
costing methods. Be wary of its anti-ABC zealots.
Resource consumption accounting (RCA) is justified
“if the higher climb is worth a better view.”
BIG TREND #5: Debates about Costing Methods
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
43 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Managing IT as a business is now an imperative. No longer can IT
be seen as a technology supplier – it must be seen to be adding
value to the organization and providing strategic capability. IT
performance management enables IT to become service oriented,
aligning itself with the organization to provide internal customer-
driven solutions to problems.
BIG TREND #6
Managing IT as a business
But … it is difficult to maximize returns from IT when the products
and services appear to be free to internal customers.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
45 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
IT ABC Cost Assignment Network People
(Salary, Fringe
Benefits) Hardware
Software Network
Customers
Business
Sustaining
IT Services,
Products
Resources
Work Activities
Final
Cost
Objects In later
years
(1)
Dem
an
ds O
n W
ork
Costs
(2
)
“Costs
Me
asu
re t
he
Eff
ects
”
Support
Activities
Business cost objects New
systems
(future
value) Current
systems /
facilities
(current
value)
IT cost
objects
R&D Develop Replace Support Operate
equipment
Resources
Activities
Final
cost objects
IT charge into
other ABC/M
models
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
46 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
AGENDA
Eras of management accounting and cost model stages of maturity
#7 Why is the adoption rate so slow?
Top Trends:
1. The expansion from product to channel and customer profitability analysis.
2. Integration of mgmt. accounting with EPM / CPM.
3. The shift from historic to predictive accounting.
4. Imbedding analytics into mgmt. accounting and EPM
5. Debates over costing methods (e.g., lean, TDABC)
6. Managing IT as a business (chargebacks, SLAs).
7. Recognition that “change management” is critical.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
47 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
BIG TREND #7 – the need for “change management Why is the adoption rate so slow? What are the barrier categories?
(1) Technical barriers include IT related issues.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
48 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Remove the wall between IT and Users
IT’s view of
Business
Business’ view of IT
- competitor
- solve but don’t operate
- IT resource intensive
- risky; low concern for
governance and control
- a mystery of what they do
- obstructionists
- controlling
- uncooperative
- bureaucrats
- less skilled than us
- just a service center
BA provides IT the opportunity to drive value, but
IT will need to be more tolerant and flexible.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
49 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Why is the adoption rate so slow? What are the barrier categories?
(1) Technical barriers include IT related issues.
(3) Design deficiencies include poor measurements or
their calculations and weak models and assumptions.
(4) Organizational behavior barriers involve resistance to
change, culture, and leadership.
(2) Perception barriers are excess complexity and
affordability.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
50 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
To create change, you need to create the need for change! How?
Change only occurs and continues only when:
(D x V x F) > R
the product of 3 factors
is greater than R
esistance to change
Dissatisfaction
with how
things are
Vision of what
“better” would look like
First
practical
steps
Overcoming Resistance to Change
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
51 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
The Complete Vision of Analytics-based Performance Management
Make the RPM of the PM and BA gears spin …
… better, faster, cheaper … and smarter and safer
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
52 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
The Institute of Management Accountants (IMA) at
www.imanet.org recorded brief 3 minute podcasts of
me introducing these 7 top trends.
Here is the overview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRyW2_Ay2Cw&hq_e=el&hq_m=1655061&hq_l=
12&hq_v=bd6554f22c
Here is the first one on trend #1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCj4-gvH1WQ&feature=youtu.be
Podcasts of the 7 Top Trends
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
53 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
From Theory to Practice
Your success depends
on how well and how fast
the right information and
intelligence gets to the
right people.
Copyright 2013 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
54 Copyright © 2010 SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Thank You
Gary Cokins, CPIM
Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC
Cary, North Carolina USA
www.garycokins.com
919 720 2718
Copyright 2012 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC