Topic 8 - ESS answers · Topic 8 - ESS answers Page 352 Years Population Doubling time 1804–1927 1–2 billion 123 years 1927–1974 2–4 billion 47 years 1974–2024 4–8 billion

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W I T H I N T O P I C Q U E S T I O N S

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Topic 8 - ESS answersPage 352

Years Population Doubling time1804–1927 1–2 billion 123 years1927–1974 2–4 billion 47 years1974–2024 4–8 billion 50 years

Page 353

1. and 2.

Region Popn 106 Land area km2 × 106

Births 106

Deaths 106

CBR / 1000/year

CDR / 1000/year

Natural increase rate

Popn density /

km-2

World 6,000 131 121.0 55.8 20.17 9.3 1.09 45.8Asia 3,500 31 88.2 29.4 25.2 8.4 1.68 112.9India 1,000 3 29.0 10.0 29 10 1.9 333.33Africa 730 29 30.7 10.0 42 13.7 2.84 25.17Tanzania 30 0.9 1.3 0.4 43.33 13.33 3 33.33Europe 730 22.7 8.5 8.2 11.64 11.23 0.04 32.16Switzerland 7 0.04 0.09 0.07 12.86 10 0.29 175N America 460 21.8 9.3 3.6 20.22 7.83 1.24 21.1USA 270 9.6 4.3 2.4 15.93 8.89 0.70 28.13

3. Asia and India have very similar rates with CBR 25.2 and 29 respectively and CDR 8.4 and 10 respectively. Africa on the other hand has significantly higher CBR (42) but a slightly higher CDR (13.7).

Generally speaking death rates have come down due to the intervention of organizations such as the WHO, UNICEF etc. Such bodies have decreased CDRs through:

● vaccination campaigns to wipe out the commonest killers – measles, mumps etc., etc.

● improving sanitation condition

● health and hygiene education to raise awareness about the spread of disease

● anti-malaria campaigns

● improvements in water supplies.

Asia and India have become aware of the pressures of large families and have started campaigns to reduce their CBRs. Africa has not followed suit and they remain very traditional in their attitudes to children. In many African countries:

● children are and economic asset not a cost:

● they work the farms

● they do not go to school

● they are a safety net for old age – no pension

● there is no contraceptive available

● very traditional attitudes to women keep the women pregnant and raising children

● the expectation that IMR is high means couples have lots of children to make sure some survive

● the need for a male heir.

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Page 354

1.

17000123456789

1800

Population of the Earthnumber of people living worldwide since 1700 in billions

wor

ld p

opul

atio

n in

bill

ions

1900year

Source: United Nations world population prospects, Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung

2000

1804

1927

19601974

19871999

20122024

2048

2. 70 years.

3. Date Population Doubling time (yrs) Date Population Doubling time (yrs)1500 0.5 1,500 1987 5.0 131800 1.0 300 1999 6.0 121927 2.0 127 2012 7.0 131960 3.0 33 2024 8.0 121974 4.0 14 2048 9.0 24

Page 357

1. 1950 2150

in billions % in billions %

LEDC 1.5 66.7 9.5 90.5MEDC 0.75 33.3 1.0 9.5

2. Allow the three answers below or any other reasonable arguments.

● We don’t know exactly how many people are alive today in all countries of the world – not all have accurate censuses.

● Global catastrophic events – wars/natural disasters/epidemics of diseases may alter predictions a lot.

● As we overshoot the ability of the Earth to provide resources (food, water, space) for humans, we will have to reduce population growth or reduce resource use.

3. ● According to Malthus the limiting factors are – food. This is no longer the case as modern technology has increased agricultural production and on a global scale we have plenty of food. The green revolution, the blue revolution, hydroponics and aquaponics have all increased food production beyond what was once thought possible (Boserup’s ideas).

● Space could be a limiting factor but again we have solved that problem with high-rise buildings increasing living densities. Though if global warming continues and sea levels rise this may become a limiting factor.

● Clean air and clean water may become limiting factors – as humans pollute these two resources they may ‘run out’.

4. Other Asia (not including China, India or Indonesia) is approximately 15–20%. Including China, India and Indonesia it is approximately 60–65%.

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Page 360

1. Malthus Boserup

Model diagram

Malthusian trap

food required

T

t1

foodproduced

quan

tity

of fo

od

time

food supply

total population

time

quan

tity

of fo

od

Main ideas ● Claimed that food supply was the main limit to population growth.

● Human population increases geometrically (i.e. 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.).

● Food supplies can grow only arithmetically (i.e. 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, etc.).

● Food production limited by available new land.

● ‘Laws of nature’ dictate that a population can never increase beyond the food supplies necessary to support it.

● Beyond the ceiling where land is used to its fullest extent, over-cultivation and, soil erosion occurs, contributing to a general decline in food production.

● Population increase is limited by ‘checks’.

● ‘Necessity is the mother of invention.’ ● She asserted that an increase in

population will increase the demand for food and so act as an incentive to change agrarian technology and produce more food.

● Population increase drives development.

Limitations ● Too simplistic – food is not the only resource we have to worry about.

● Does not apply across the whole population – only the poor go hungry!

● The world’s community is not closed (except globally) so imports and exports distribute food.

● Recent evidence shows food supplies do not just grow arithmetically.

● Based on a closed community – only applicable globally.

● Out-migration occurs to relieve population pressure.

● Overpopulation leads to unsuitable farming practices so does not lead to development.

Applications On a global level the growing suffering and famine in some LEDCs today may reinforce these ideas.

At a national scale, some governments have been motivated by increasing population to develop their resources and so meet growing demands.

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2. (i) Although the food supply is increasing it is not increasing fast enough to keep pace with the increasing population so per capita food supply is decreasing.

(ii) Index of total and per capita food production,India. 1961–1998

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

inde

x (1

989=

100)

140120100

80604020

0

total

per capita

population

(iii) This could be argued either way:

● Malthus – as it shows that the availability of food is falling; the per capita line drops below the total amount of food.

● Boserup – it shows that as population increases food production is increasing. This is a weak argument though as it is not increasing enough to feed the growing population.

3.

1800 1850 19000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1960 1970years

popu

latio

n (1

09 )

1980 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100

LEDCMEDC

4. ● Status of women

● Attitudes towards family planning and contraceptives

● Education of women

Page 362

a) ● Women are viewed as the homemakers, men earn the visible income and can be independent and make decisions.

● Fewer educational opportunities for women.

● Fewer opportunities for women to be part of the communal decision making.

● Discrimination in the job markets.

b) ● Educate women and girls (and boys).

● Free contraceptives and family planning.

● Micro finance for women.

● Job opportunities for women.

● Anti-natalist government policies.

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● Taxes on large families.

● Reduce free education/health care for more than 2 or 3 children.

● Encourage rural – urban move.

● Reduce IMR.

● Increase the legal age of marriage.

● Introduce effective pension schemes.

● Legalize abortions.

c) Women may:

● understand how to control their own fertility

● be more able to get a job outside of the home – less time for family

● go into further education so marry later

● gain independence so have more say in family planning.

Page 363

Population pyramids

1. ● Birth rates

● Death rates

● Life expectancy (LE)

● Infant mortality rate

● Death rates at various ages

● Ratio of males:females and comparison of death rates

● Difference in LE between male and female

2. ● Increased birth rates

● Proportional drop in IMR

● Drop in death rates

● Increase in LE in women

3.

80+75–7970–7465–6960–6455–5950–5445–4940–4435–3930–3425–2920–2415–1910–14

5–90–4

5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5

Afghanistan: 2000male

Aged population (over 65)

Working population (15–65)

Youthful population (under 15)

female

population (in millions) ● The dependency ratio:

● under 15 years old are at school and dependent on the working population

● over 65 year olds retire and are dependent on the working population

● working age – 15–65.

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4. Two or more of the following.

● China’s one child policy.

● Availability of contraception.

● Urbanization.

● Mechanization of agriculture.

● Opening up of China to western influence and free market economy.

● High cost of raising children so parents prefer to have one only.

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Stage 1. Expanding 2. Expanding 3. Stationary 4. Contracting Birth rate High High Falling LowDeath rate High Falling Low LowLife expectancy Low Low but increasing Higher HighPopulation growth rate Low Increasing High DecreasingStage of DTM 1 2 3 4Example Primitive tribes

Amazonia

Afghanistan

Laos

Costa Rica

Malaysia

USA

Most of Europe

2.

Birth rate Death rate Life expectancy Gender differences Stage of development

India High Low in the younger age groups (up to 30) then increases

Reasonably good – some live to 89.

More males born than females.

Males have high DR in younger years (under 20)

2 maybe going in to 3

Thailand Low and falling for around 20 years

Starts to increase above 50

Reasonable – many in the 80+ group but no bars above that

Very slight difference in BR with males higher.

Better survival of females with greater numbers over 75

3

Italy Very low – falling for last 40 years

Low: does not increase until after 80

High – bars go up to 100+

Very slight difference in BR with males higher.

Lower DR of women between 50 and 70.

More women from 70–99 but none over 100

4, maybe 5

Brazil High – but has been falling for 30 years

Fairly low with small drops between age groups up to 30

Reasonable – many in the 80+ group but no bars above that

Great life expectancy for women

4

United States

Pretty high but falling/fluctuating for last 50 years

Low up to 65 then increases

Medium with bars up to 85+ but none above that

Much better life expectancy for women (over double the number of women over 85)

4

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Page 367

Go to the UN Economic and Social Affairs office website http://esa.un.org/unpd/ wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm

This web address has changed to http://esa.un.org/unpd/popdev/popdevdb/popdevdb2014.aspx and this website has changed so the questions are not possible to answer as they stand. Ask students to answer the questions changing 2050 to 2030 where appropriate.

1. Using the basic data and median variant, find the data for the following:

a) 8,424,937,470

b) 1,293,904,870

c) 7,131,032,600

d) ● Less developed – 84.6%

● More developed – 15.3%

e) ● Less developed 6,065,194,070/7,324,782,220 = 82.8%

● More developed 1,259,588,150/7,324,782,220 = 17.2%

f) ● Population in less developed parts of the world as a proportion of total world population is slowly rising.

● Population in more developed is decreasing as proportion of total world population.

2. a) ● More – 2015–20 =- 1.71, 2025–30 = 1.78

● Less – 2015–20 = 2.56, 2025–30 = 2.45

b) Less developed, higher number due to desire for larger families perhaps due to infant mortality/ need for offspring to look after older parents/ lower level of education of women.

c) ● More – rate about 0.2%.

● Less – rate over 1%.

● Higher in less developed by about 5 times so population increases rapidly.

d) Both falling due to better health care so population increases as people live longer.

e) Both increased.

4. ● Validity depends on quality of the data – possibly more accurate in more developed regions.

● Model basis could be flawed.

● Real world could change so model has to keep up with developments.

● Useful to help predict demand in each country for schooling, medical services, workforce etc.

● Help governments plan ahead.

Page 368

1. ● Low BR that has been falling for about 10 years.

● Medium DR with small drops between age groups.

● Good life expectancy with people in the 80+ age group and more women than men at that age.

2. It is going into stage three (maybe late stage 2).

3. ● Significant drop in the BR – due to the fact that the age groups affected by AIDS are not only the workers but also the child-bearing ages. Less people in the 16–35 means lower BR.

● Far more women above 65 years old – as this is the age group ahead of the AIDS epidemic and women generally life longer than men.

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● More men in the working ages – probably due to an influx of migrant workers to fill the jobs of the local population who dies from AIDS.

● 45–60 year-old women are low in number – with the men in the family gone many women will have turned to prostitution to earn a living – many will have died from AIDS.

4. ● By 2050 it is possible that the worst ravages of AIDS have more or less worked their way out of the population and thus the pyramid.

● High preponderance of women in the 80+ age group – the ones not affected by AIDS.

● Low number of women in the 45–65 age groups – many lost due to AIDS spread by prostitution.

● Falling BR due to awareness of contraception.

Page 375

Uranium’s uses:

● Main fuel for nuclear reactors.

● Raw material for nuclear weapons.

● Powers nuclear submarines.

● Dense mental used as ballast in ships and counter weights in aircraft.

According to http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Mining-of-Uranium/World-Uranium-Mining-Production/ the top uranium mining countries are:

1. Kazakhstan

2. Canada

3. Australia

4. Niger

5. Namibia

6. Russia

7. Uzbekistan

8. USA

9. China

10. Malawi

11. Ukraine

12. South Africa

13. India

14. Brazil

15. Czech Republic

16. Romania

17. Pakistan

18. Germany

19. France

Uranium’s use as natural capital:

● uranium is a non-renewable resource so it can never be used sustainably

● it is only used in small quantities so has a long ‘life expectancy’.

Page 379

1. “Fairtrade’s vision is a world in which all producers can enjoy secure and sustainable livelihoods, fulfil their potential and decide on their future.”

● Reduce poverty.

● Empower people to take control over the work and their lives.

● Secure access to mainstream markets.

● Gain widespread support for Fair Trade.

2. It is a global organization that is working to secure a better deal for farmers and workers.

“Fairtrade International is the organizationthat coordinates Fairtrade labelling at an international level.From our offices, in Bonn, Germany, we set international Fairtrade standards, organize support for producers around the world, developglobal Fairtrade strategy, and promote trade justice internationally.”

3. A number of possible answers, of which these are three of the best known: Cadbury, Ben and Jerry’s, Tate & Lyle.

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4. a) ● They gain a minimum price that covers the costs of sustainable production.

● Gain the Fairtrade Premium – paid on top of the price and used to improve the community.

● They are involved in the decisions about prices, premiums standards and strategies.

● Small farmers and their workers are supported.

b) ● Shoppers can buy products that are in line with their principles.

● Prices may be higher than other products.

Page 391

Advantages Disadvantages

Landfill Initial cost is cheap

Methane can be collected and used to generate electricity

Have to be lined to prevent leachate = expensive.

Attracts pests and vermin

Smells

Visual pollution

Running out of sites

Location is very difficult – very specific requirements

Can be a long way from centers of population – uses a lot of fossil fuels to get waste there

Problems with subsidence Incineration Only takes up a limited amount

of space

Reduces waste to a minimal amount

Can be used to produce electricity

Ash can be used in road construction

Expensive to build and operate

Requires a lot of energy to start up burning so needs to run 24/7

Must be maintained properly and regularly

Visual pollution

Air pollution – can be toxic

Can have locational restrictions

Recycling Reduces amount of waste into landfills and incinerators

Reduces the use of new raw materials

Waste stream may have to be sorted and separated

Waste must be washed

Kerbside sorting requires several collection trucks – uses a lot of fossil fuels

Not all materials are recycleable

Population has to be educated about the need for recycling

Industries need to be in place to use/deal with the recyclables

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Page 395/6

Reasons for high EF Reasons for low EFA lot of land is built on:

● cities ● transport networks ● factories and industry ● waste treatment facilities ● power plants

Limited built land:

● smaller buildings ● lower standard of living requires less resources

Energy demands are very high

● Private cars ● Flights ● High electricity consumption

Energy demands are low

● Private cars are limited ● Very few people fly ● Electricity consumption is low ● Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy

Productive land usage

● Large scale extensive arable farms ● High calorie intake – eat lots ● High meat intake

Productive land

● Small-scale intensive subsistence farms ● Consume less food/subsistence agriculture ● Consume far less meat

Pollution

● Limited use of renewable energy sources ● Lack of adherence to laws controlling pollution

Pollution

● Reduce emissions laws ● Recycling, reuse of resources ● Technological improvements

Consumerist societies

● Have MANY products ● Technology keeps replacing old models ● Want new things every year ● Labour-saving devices

Fewer material goods

Page 399

1. ● High wheat consumption – bread-/pasta-based diets

● High meat-based diet – grain-fed cattle

2. ● Africa has subsistence agriculture – most of the grain is produced locally on small-scale intensive farms as the per hectare amounts are high.

● North America has extensive commercial agriculture – most grain is grown on very large-scale farms with low productivity per hectare.

3. North America is more dependent on fossil fuels because extensive farms use a lot of machinery to plant and harvest the crops and then move them to market.

4. Africa has much higher CO2 fixation because there will be a large amount of natural vegetation

around the farms, that grows all year so fixes nitrogen all year. North America will have less natural local vegetation so when the crops are harvested there will be long periods of time when there is little or no CO

2 fixation.

5. Food land CO2 absorption

Africa 300 __ 6000

= 0.05 200 __ 6000

= 0.03

North America 600 _ 300

= 2 1500 __ 3000

= 0.5

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6. MEDC city would have a higher EF because of:

● greater use of electricity in homes – labour-saving devices, heating / cooling appliances

● great energy footprint due to higher use of private transport

● more meat-based diets

● more imported products.

7. It means that Singapore is using 264 times more land than it actually has in order to provide it with resources and absorb its wastes.

8. An increase in the number of people with a vegetarian diet would reduce the EF.

● With a vegetarian diet we eat at lower trophic levels so less energy is lost (2nd Law of Thermodynamics) and more is available for our consumption.

● In commercial pastoral farming land is used to house the animals and more land is needed to grow the crops to feed them. If less people eat meat less land will be taken up = lower EF.

Page 399

a) It is very difficult to define because our relationship with the resources we use is not straightforward. Carrying capacity is the maximum number of a species or ‘load’ that can be sustainably supported by a given area.

Humans can increase carrying capacity by [any two of the following]:

● Importing goods.

● Substituting resources.

● Making more efficient use of resources through technological improvements.

● Technology:

● improves agricultural yields – green, blue revolution, aquaponics, hydroponics

● facilitates high density living

● enables use of renewable energy resources.

b) Define and give examples of reuse, recycling and remanufacturing. How can these lead to an increase in human carrying capacity?

Method Defined Example Increase in CCReuse The object is used more

than once. Reuse of soft drink bottles (after cleaning).

These mean you are not taking more resources but the old ones are used over and over again (to a point). BUT it can be argued that the fossil fuels for collection/delivery and for cleaning and redistribution could also decrease CC.

Recycling The object’s material is used again to manufacture a new product

The use of plastic bags to make plastic fence posts for gardens or fleeces to wear.

Remanufacturing The object’s material is used to make a new object of the same type.

Manufacturing of new plastic (PET) bottles from used ones.

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c) Two possible answers. As technology develops it can:

1. Increase resource use and decrease carrying capacity. This is because of:

● agricultural technologies for irrigation/fertilisers/pesticides using up more resources;

● fossil fuel dependent technology increasing CO2 waste in use/production;

● increasing demands for resources used in manufacture of technology;

● pollution produced by use/manufacture of technology requiring more waste assimilation;

● reducing limits to population growth thereby increasing demand for resources/waste assimilation;

● promoting rapid turnover of technologies/consumer market that increase rate of resource consumption/waste production.

If carrying capacity decreases so should the population because there will be higher demand for resources and Malthusian feedback may start – reducing population growth.

OR

2. Decrease resource use and increase carrying capacity. This is because of:

● agricultural technologies for irrigation/fertilisers/pesticides increasing productivity (per unit area);

● increased productivity of genetically engineered crops;

● technology for hydroponic agriculture requiring less resources;

● increased energy efficiency (reducing CO2 waste);

● alternative energy sources (e.g. wind/solar/etc.) (reducing CO2 waste);

● hybrid/H-fuel vehicles reducing CO2 waste;

● technology to harvest energy/recycle materials from waste;

● technology to capture/store carbon waste.

d) Many countries have anti-natalist policies in place to decrease population size – China’s One Child Policy is probably the most famous one.

Cultural changes that cause a decrease in population:

● Gender equality – as soon as women become educated and are given equal rights (jobs, decision making, inheritance rights) they can start to control their own fertility.

● Changes in attitudes about the women’s place being in the home – when women are no longer seen only as the home maker fertility decreases.

● Getting away from the idea that children are an economic asset – when children become expensive the birth rates drop.

● Getting way from the ‘need’ for a male heir.

● Getting away from the concept that many children somehow proves a man’s virility.

Quick review questions

1. A2. C3. D4. C5. B6. C7. C8. B

Documents

Topic 8 - ESS answers · Topic 8 - ESS answers Page 352 Years Population Doubling time 1804–1927 1–2 billion 123 years 1927–1974 2–4 billion 47 years 1974–2024 4–8 billion