Total Hospitalizations

March 16 May 3

326 496 6171,042

1,406

2,0432,629

3,343

4,079

5,327

6,481

7,328

8,503

9,517

10,929

12,226

13,383

14,810

15,90516,479

16,83717,493

18,07918,279 18,569

18,65418,707

18,825 18,69718,335

16,044

12,819

16,21316,967

17,73517,316

16,10315,599

15,021

13,524

12,839 12,64612,159

11,598

10,99310,350

9,7869,647

14,258

Net Change in Total Hospitalizations

March 16 May 3

91170

425364

637586

714 736

1,248

1,154

847

1,175

1,412

1,297

1,157

1,427

574

358

656586

200

85118

-128

-362

-600

-349

-754

-110-59

-445

-578

-763 -734

-20

-173

-487-561

-605-643

-139

121

1,014

1,095

290

53

-419

-685

-564

Net Change in Intubations

March 17 May 3

43

93

69

116124

192

222

290

200

165

303295

313

260

351

316

132

69

88

109

-26

110

-21-14

-40

-73

-112

-32

-127

-41

-16

-118-108

-115

-65

-139-124

-78

-48

121

291

94

-7

-92

-124-110

-102

27

New COVID Hospitalizations Per DayGross new COVID hospitalizations (3-day rolling average)

March 20 May 3

489

656 694

837924

1,265

1,564

1,776

1,925 1,949

2,210

2,411

2,736

3,042

3,181 3,169

2,722

2,4872,563

2,825

2,945

2,7722,689

2,389

2,1192,016 2,039

2,156

2,045

1,833

1,616

1,3891,408

1,404 1,367

1,224

1,1191,076

973 970 933 954

831789

717

Number of Lives Lost

April 28: 330

April 29: 306

April 30: 289

May 1: 299

May 2: 280

May 3: 226

(193 in Hospitals, 33 in Nursing Homes)

Reopening

?

?

Learn the Lessons

AND

Be Smart

? ?

collected in the New York metropolitan area

origins in Europe and

CDC Report May 1, 2020

Learn the Lessons

The extensive travel from Europe, once Europe was having outbreaks, really accelerated our importations and the rapid spread I think the timing of our travel alerts should have been earlier

CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne SchuchatMay 1, 2020

Learn the Lessons

Where did those flights land?Europe to USA flights, February 5 March 16

Learn the Lessons

Chicago: 773 JFK:

2,758

Newark: 1,200

So we learn the lessons: a new contagious influenza virus

anywhere today, can be a pandemiceverywhere

The 1918 influenza epidemic shows us the deadly consequences of

hasty, hurried reopenings

Learn the Lessons

Andconsequences of reopening too soon as we battle the COVID-19 pandemic.

Learn the Lessons

Learn the Lessons

a bad fall and a bad winter.

Dr. Tony Fauci

April 29, 2020

Learn the Lessons

Truth is no one knows what

it will keep you safe.

Be prepared for all possibilities.

Chart a course where we can correct.

Data

+

Measures

+

Science

Not Personal Opinion

• % and rate of hospitalizations

Quantifiable Formula

+Diagnostic testing rate

+Contact tracing

=Rt 1.1

• Phase I, II, III, IV business reopen

• If Rt > 1.1 - Stop

Core factors will determine when a region can reopen:

Metrics

Monitoring New

Infections

Healthcare Capacity

Diagnostic Testing

Capacity

Contact Tracing

Capacity

Metrics Monitoring New Infections

Based on guidelines from the CDC

• Regions must have at least 14 days of decline in total hospitalizations AND deaths on a 3-day rolling average

• In regions with few COVID cases, cannot exceed 15 new total cases or 5 new deaths on a 3-day rolling average

1

2

Metrics Monitoring New Infections

In order to monitor the potential spread of infection in a region:

• A region must have fewer than two new COVID patients admitted per 100k residents per day

3

Metrics Healthcare Capacity

We must make sure every region has capacity to handle a potential surge in cases:

• Regions must have at least 30% total hospital AND ICU beds available

• This is coupled with the new requirement that hospitals have at least 90 days of PPE stockpiled

4

5

Metrics Diagnostic Testing Capacity

We have brought diagnostic testing to scale

1 million New Yorkers have now been tested.

Metrics Diagnostic Testing Capacity

Following recommendation from Dr. Birx:

• 30 tests for every 1,000 residentsper month

6

TOTAL DIAGNOSTIC TESTS BY POPULATION

New York Is Testing More Than Other States

WashingtonFloridaCaliforniaGeorgiaKentucky

1.7% 1.8% 2% 2.8% 5.2%1.2%

New York State

TOTAL DIAGNOSTIC TESTS BY POPULATION

New York Is Testing More Than Other Countries

ItalyCanadaUSAUKSouth Korea

1.7% 2.2% 2.3% 3.5% 5.2%1.2%

New York State

has made nearly 300,000 testing kits to collect samples.

Today, we are sending 60,000 kits to labs & hospitals across NYS.

NYS Sample Collection Kits

Metrics Contact Tracing Capacity

• Regions must have a baseline of 30 contact tracers for every 100,000 residents, and additional tracers based on the projected number of cases in the region

• We are building an army of tracers, in partnership with Mayor Bloomberg, to meet statewide needs

7

If new cases are under control and Rt range is below 1: commence reopening in phases while monitoring Rt rate and health system capacity.

Greater Economic Impact Lower Economic Impact

Low Infection

Risk

Higher Infection

Risk

Industry greater economic impact, low risk of

workplace or customer infection spread

Industry less economic impact, low risk of workplace or customer infection spread

Industry less economic impact, higher risk of

workplace or customer infection spread

Phased Reopening of Businesses

Industry greater economic impact, higher risk of

workplace or customer infection spread

Risk v. Reward Analysis8

Phased Reopening of BusinessPhase 1

ConstructionManufacturing and wholesale supply chainSelect Retail Curbside Pickup

Phase 2Professional ServicesFinance and InsuranceRetailAdministrative SupportReal Estate/Rental Leasing

Phase 3Restaurants/Food ServicesHotels/Accommodations

Phase 4Arts/Entertainment/RecreationEducation

8

Business Safety Precautions

• Adjusted workplace hours and shift design

• Social distancing

• Non-essential travel restricted

People Places Processes

• Masks required if in frequent contact with others

• Strict cleaning and sanitation standards

• Continuous health screening to enter workplace

• Continuous tracing, tracking and reporting

• Liability

9

reimaginetheir operations to be safe in

compliance with new standards.

Business Safety Precautions

Regional Approach

Lower-risk regions

Higher-risk regions

Where do Regions Currently Stand?

14-day decline in hospitalizations

OR Under 15 new

hospitalizations(3-day avg)

14-day decline in hospital

deaths OR

Fewer than 5 deaths

(3-day avg)

New hospitalizations

(Under 2 per 100K residents—

3 day rolling avg)

Share of total beds available

(threshold of 30%)

Share of ICU beds available (threshold of

30%)

30 per 1k residents

tested monthly

(7-day average of new tests

per day)

At least 30 contact tracers

per 100K residents

Metrics Met

Capital Region N Y 0.58 41% 44% N 325 4/7

Central New York Y Y 0.47 49% 51% N 233 5/7

Finger Lakes Y Y 1.19 53% 64% N 361 5/7

Long Island Y N 5.76 28% 26% Y 852 2/7

Mid-Hudson Y N 4.74 31% 35% Y 697 4/7

Mohawk Valley Y Y 1.17 58% 64% N 146 5/7

New York City Y Y 5.41 26% 21% Y 2520 3/7

North Country Y Y 0.08 53% 64% N 126 5/7

Southern Tier Y Y 0.11 58% 52% N 190 5/7

Western New York N Y 2.20 46% 40% N 414 3/7

Regional Approach

Regional

• County Executive Bello, chairs of county legislators/chairs of boards of town supervisors

• Mayor Warren, town supervisors

• Former Lt. Gov. Duffy

• Hospital officials

• State officials

10

There is real substantive Government work to be done before May 15.

In this new age, Government is not about optics, celebrity, and

press releases.

It is about performance and expertise.

Government competence can be the difference between life and death.

Our efforts have saved lives.

We must remain vigilant.

NEW YORK TOUGHSMARTDISCIPLINEDUNIFIEDLOVING