Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure

in the 21st century

The Waves of Change

1st Wave - Agrarian

3rd Wave - Information

2nd Wave - Industrial

1st Wave - Agrarian

• Isolated societies, conditioned by environmental & political values

• Images & face to face communication

•  Values and cultures developing independently

2nd Wave - Industrial

• Introduction of MASS societies – production, education, communication

• Routine experiences of labour

• Images challenged & influenced by wider communications 

3rd Wave - Information

• Knowledge is the key

• Communication and images are instantaneous

• Language is becoming common

• Wealth is derived from knowledge

The Effects of the Waves

• Organizations and institutions of the Industrial wave may become obsolete

• Institutions based on the Industrial wave are unable to cope with Information wave societies

• De - massification of mass societies

• Diversification of structures of societies

• New customized forms of production on demand

• Electronic commerce

• ‘Prosumer’ economics - the producer / consumer relationship 

After the Three Waves

Predictability is a goal, and discontinuity and unpredictability

should be avoided

Flexible to adapt to change but stable enough not to dissolve into

chaos

Complexity and Chaos

Fuzziness

The 4th Wave - Theatre

•Where companies use services as the stage, and goods as props to engage an individual.

•Goods are tangible, and services intangible, but experiences are memorable.

•The experience lacks tangibility, but people greatly value it for its inherently personal qualities

PESTLE Influences

Political

EconomicSociologicalTechnological

Legislative

Environmental

The Changing Organisation

Consumer

Contracted non-core

Flexible

Labour force

Core

Middle Management

Top

Operational

OLD NEW

Dealing with Complexity and Chaos

The Conventional model has

Routine ActivitiesDefined Boundaries

Simple SystemsSingle-loop Learning

The Adaptive Model has

Non-routine ActivitiesUndefined Boundaries

Complex SystemsDouble /Triple loop learning

Dealing with Fuzziness

At or seeking equilibrium

Fluid, complex, non-linear, open systems Static stable, linear, mechanistic

Occasionally orderly but at edge of chaos

Focus on price/quantity in production Focus on patterns/diverse and added values

Reductionist–individual units of analysis Holistic – synergistic

Rational choice based on bounded options System choice unbounded parameters

Decreasing returns Increasing returns

Forecasting by extrapolation on past trends Creative evolution - alternative trajectories

Single loop learning Double and triple loop learning

Economics as the underlying science Social-ecology as the underlying science

Conventional Alternative

Dealing with Theatre

The Fourth Economic wave – Experience –looks at the Hospitality Organisation from a Theatrical perspective. This

means exploring ways of providing the customer with an Experience. Although some people see experiences as just a

subclass of services, they are distinct, in that they are intangible and highly personal

Changing the Nature of the Organisation

• Customers will become increasingly sophisticated

• Customers will increase in confidence

• Point of decision closer to the point of consumption

• Brand loyalty will change with “exit” behaviour forcing change

• Brands reduce in importance with a concept move to ‘ethos’

• Service needs at the point of consumption

• Service provider will become the facilitator

• New service communication channels

• Boundaries between sectors will disappear

• Flexible use of facilities and space segmented by time

• Re-engineering of the organisation