TOWARDS THE TOWARDS THE APPRAISAL OF THE APPRAISAL OF THE CUMULATIVE AND CUMULATIVE AND DYNAMIC IMPACT OF DYNAMIC IMPACT OF DISASTERSDISASTERSADVISORY GROUP - FIRST MEETINGADVISORY GROUP - FIRST MEETINGINFORMATION AND INDICATORS PROGRAM FOR INFORMATION AND INDICATORS PROGRAM FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECTDISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECTWashington, D.C., January 13, 2004Washington, D.C., January 13, 2004Inter American Bank Building, Washington D.C.Inter American Bank Building, Washington D.C.

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BACKGROUND BACKGROUND INFORMATIONINFORMATION The objectives of the project remain to promote better risk management and The objectives of the project remain to promote better risk management and

disaster mitigation by having a better comprehension on the impact of past disaster mitigation by having a better comprehension on the impact of past disasters, their cumulative effect, and national ex ante and ex post disasters, their cumulative effect, and national ex ante and ex post situations in respect of risk bearing.situations in respect of risk bearing.

The work programme of the project and the formation of an advisory groupThe work programme of the project and the formation of an advisory group Its terms of reference: prepare substantive contributions, provide insight and Its terms of reference: prepare substantive contributions, provide insight and

enrich methodological proposals, sounding board for the projects’ proposals and enrich methodological proposals, sounding board for the projects’ proposals and conclusionsconclusions

ECLAC as responsible for preparing methodological proposals and propose ECLAC as responsible for preparing methodological proposals and propose conceptual frameworkconceptual framework

Delay in holding this meeting due to circumstances not related to the Delay in holding this meeting due to circumstances not related to the project and interest in advancing now rapidly to have methodological project and interest in advancing now rapidly to have methodological frameworks for national studies by April, start national studies in May and frameworks for national studies by April, start national studies in May and have case studies before February 2005have case studies before February 2005

Information was provided to potential members of the project since August Information was provided to potential members of the project since August 2003 and preliminary documents were sent in September.2003 and preliminary documents were sent in September.

Invitation was sent in December.Invitation was sent in December. Welcome open discussion and promote brainstormingWelcome open discussion and promote brainstorming Encourage presentation of advisor’s experience and specific knowledge Encourage presentation of advisor’s experience and specific knowledge

from their work experience, field of work and practical applicationfrom their work experience, field of work and practical application Discussion is expected on conceptual framework and terms of reference for Discussion is expected on conceptual framework and terms of reference for

national studies (sent in September)national studies (sent in September)

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PURPOSE OF THE MEETING PURPOSE OF THE MEETING AND THE ADVISORY GROUP’S AND THE ADVISORY GROUP’S CONTRIBUTIONCONTRIBUTION A necessary step in the process of preparing the project’s basic A necessary step in the process of preparing the project’s basic

methodological documentsmethodological documents Terms of reference for national studies and conceptual Terms of reference for national studies and conceptual

frameworksframeworks Methodology for analysis of risk bearing infrastructure (both ex Methodology for analysis of risk bearing infrastructure (both ex

ante and ex post)ante and ex post) ECLAC’s methodology adaptation for cumulative / dynamic impact ECLAC’s methodology adaptation for cumulative / dynamic impact

over timeover time Rapid assessment of financial / resources needs ex post (beyond Rapid assessment of financial / resources needs ex post (beyond

what the new ECLAC handbook provides and in accordance with what the new ECLAC handbook provides and in accordance with IDB’s concernsIDB’s concerns

We consider the ECLAC current methodology as appropriate for rapid We consider the ECLAC current methodology as appropriate for rapid needs assessment in the face of reconstruction, indicating needs assessment in the face of reconstruction, indicating specifically what are the ex ante (baseline, pre disaster trends) specifically what are the ex ante (baseline, pre disaster trends) information needs and ex post (allowing for the consideration of information needs and ex post (allowing for the consideration of alternative scenarios on the basis of policy, resource availability, alternative scenarios on the basis of policy, resource availability, risk bearing infrastructure and needs beyond the country’s risk bearing infrastructure and needs beyond the country’s capabilitycapability

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OTHER ELEMENTS FOR OTHER ELEMENTS FOR DISCUSSIONDISCUSSION

The purpose and objective of rapid needs The purpose and objective of rapid needs assessment methodologies that go beyond assessment methodologies that go beyond the emergencythe emergencyExisting ones (Asian experience (ADPC’s DANA), Existing ones (Asian experience (ADPC’s DANA),

Mexico’s CENAPRED and FONDEN’s different Mexico’s CENAPRED and FONDEN’s different assessments), and ECLAC’s as a rapid assessments), and ECLAC’s as a rapid assessment toolassessment tool

Estimating ex post financial needs (Paul Estimating ex post financial needs (Paul Freeman's work for IADB and other Freeman's work for IADB and other modeling and economic projection tools) modeling and economic projection tools)

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WHAT IS EXPECTED OF THE WHAT IS EXPECTED OF THE MEETINGMEETING An open discussion of the issues (brainstorming on the issues of An open discussion of the issues (brainstorming on the issues of

the economic and development impact of disasters and analytical the economic and development impact of disasters and analytical tools to approach it, disasters and crisis management, disasters tools to approach it, disasters and crisis management, disasters and external chocks)and external chocks)

Elements to include in the analytical frameworks to be used by the Elements to include in the analytical frameworks to be used by the project (revised versions of the conceptual note, how to approach project (revised versions of the conceptual note, how to approach risk bearing infrastructure and tools ex ante and ex post, the need risk bearing infrastructure and tools ex ante and ex post, the need for a dynamic approach and exisrting tools such as econometric for a dynamic approach and exisrting tools such as econometric analysis, partial and general equilibrium models, etc.). Main analysis, partial and general equilibrium models, etc.). Main concerns relate toconcerns relate to

Strategic evaluation towards needs assessment and disaster Strategic evaluation towards needs assessment and disaster reduction and mitigationreduction and mitigation

The cumulative effect of disaster (i.e. never returning to pre-The cumulative effect of disaster (i.e. never returning to pre-existing conditions: equilibrium dynamics and resilience)existing conditions: equilibrium dynamics and resilience)

Agreed criteria to be applied, mutatis mutandi, in the case studiesAgreed criteria to be applied, mutatis mutandi, in the case studies Need for consultancies to complete methodoligical proposalsNeed for consultancies to complete methodoligical proposals

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WHAT WE HAVE AND WHAT WHAT WE HAVE AND WHAT WE DON’TWE DON’T What we haveWhat we have

Conceptual noteConceptual note Expanded and revised 2003 ECLAC HandbookExpanded and revised 2003 ECLAC Handbook DANA and CENAPRED’s approach to rapid assessment of needsDANA and CENAPRED’s approach to rapid assessment of needs A preliminary approach to dynamic analysisA preliminary approach to dynamic analysis

What we don’t have (and want to have before starting the national case What we don’t have (and want to have before starting the national case studies)studies)

A validated conceptual frameworkA validated conceptual framework Specific consideration of ex ante and ex post methodological approachesSpecific consideration of ex ante and ex post methodological approaches A methodology to evaluate risk bearing infrastructure (systems, tools, A methodology to evaluate risk bearing infrastructure (systems, tools,

resources)resources) A rapid assesment needs methodology beyond emergencyA rapid assesment needs methodology beyond emergency A dynamic model to analyze cumulative impactA dynamic model to analyze cumulative impact

Who we are:Who we are:Ricardo Zapata, ECLAC’s focal point for disaster evaluationRicardo Zapata, ECLAC’s focal point for disaster evaluationRoberto Jovel, former ECLAC director of operations and programming and Roberto Jovel, former ECLAC director of operations and programming and

“father” of ECLAC’S methodology“father” of ECLAC’S methodologyRené Hernández, ECLAC economist, recently received doctorate of Economics René Hernández, ECLAC economist, recently received doctorate of Economics

(Warwick), in charge of developing a dynamic model for the project)(Warwick), in charge of developing a dynamic model for the project)

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INTRODUCTION OF ALL INTRODUCTION OF ALL PRESENTPRESENT