TRACECA ORG

TRACECA Programme Traffic and Feasibility Studies– TNREG 9803

Module A

Traffic Database and Forecasts

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME I I

August 2001

Project synopsis: Module A Project Title: Traffic and Feasibility Studies

Project Number: TNREG 9803

Country: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova,

Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Overall objective: Investment in the transport sector within the TRACECA states supported. Specific objective: Transport data base and traffic forecasting model established and

institutionalised in the eleven TRACECA countries. Planned outputs: ! Local networks for data collection established, and staff identified

and trained. In each TRACECA country at least one centre capable of providing national and regional forecasts;

! Equipment and software provided for the beneficiary states; ! A common transport data base and traffic forecasting model for the

eleven TRACECA states designed and developed, in a single physical centre or as a virtual centre, and having links with each country;

! CDs of the data base issued at maximum three monthly intervals, and data available on the TRACECA Web site;

! Traffic forecasts prepared for the feasibility studies of the other modules of the project and for Chardzew bridge.

Activities A1 Setting up a network of local correspondents;

A2 Training of local project experts on database and traffic forecasting tools;

A3 Equipment supply; A4 Data base design, data collection and surveys; A5 Design forecasting methodology; A6 Documentation of database and forecasting methodology; A7 Specific traffic forecast for the other modules A8 Feasibility study of Chardzew bridge; A9 Synopsis and communications, brochures, conferences. A10 Overview of links to Europe and the TRACECA neighbouring states A11 Web site

Target groups: ! Ministries of Transport and Departments responsible for transport

in the Cabinet of Ministers, of the eleven TRACECA countries; ! National rail, road, port and maritime companies; ! Ministries of Economy and Departments of Statistics, and Customs

Authorities. Project start date: 30 August1999 Project duration: 24 Months

TRACECA Programme Traffic and Feasibility Studies

Module A


A 6 Documentation of database and forecasting methodology

TRACECA Programme Traffic and Feasibility Studies: TNREG 9803 MODULE A TRAFFIC DATABASE Guidelines for Data Collection and Lists of Information to be Collected

AUGUST 2001

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies-Module A FINAL REPORT List and Format of information to be collected for the Database

BCEOM August 2001 A6 2

Table of Contents

1. Overview of the Database.................................................................................. 3

2. Infrastructure Characteristics ........................................................................... 4

2.1 The Network: General ...............................................................................................5 2.2 Specific Links: Customs Border Crossing and Ports ..................................................6 2.3 Required Data for each Link ......................................................................................8 2.4 Ports links................................................................................................................13 2.5 AIRPORTS..............................................................................................................15

3. Socio-Economic Data at Oblast Level ............................................................ 16

4. Trade and Transport OD Information.............................................................. 18

4.1 International Trade Data at National Level...............................................................19

5. Traffic Flow Data Collection ............................................................................ 27

5.1 Road Vehicle Counts...............................................................................................27 5.2 Rail Traffic ...............................................................................................................29

6. Transhipment Traffic : Ports & Borders ......................................................... 31

6.1 Port Traffic...............................................................................................................31 6.2 AIRPort Traffic.........................................................................................................33 6.3 Border Crossings.....................................................................................................34

7. Annexes............................................................................................................. 37

7.1 List of Modes and Link Types ..................................................................................37 7.2 List of Commodity....................................................................................................38 7.3 List of Countries and Oblasts...................................................................................43 7.4 List of Border Crossings ..........................................................................................52 7.5 Definition and List of Standard Category for Road...................................................65 7.6 Notes for Data Entry ................................................................................................67



1. Overview of the Database

The information stored in the database will be used :

• To build the freight flow matrices

• To build the passenger flow matrix

• To build the various networks

• To implement the forecast In addition to international sources (CIS, UN), additional international trade information sources have to be looked for in the different countries. Each item of data in the database will be linked to either a Link of the network or to a specific Zone (internal or external). All the data will be entered into Excel files. There will be one table coded per Excel sheet. In the following, each table will be described in detail. In each table, two types of field have been distinguished. Key variables are used to identify precisely the record stored in the table, to distinguish one record to another (e.g. : A node and B node Identification-ID for a link table; Country of Origin and destination in an OD table). Content variables permit to describe the characteristics of each record. Four types of data have been distinguished :

• Infrastructure characteristics

• Socio-Economic Data

• Trade and transport OD information

• Traffic data



2. Infrastructure Characteristics

Infrastructure characteristics are described in the database by series of data tables. Each data table contains information about each type of infrastructure, road, rail and shipping. In addition to these transport links, specific links are added in order to code border crossing, transhipment and port characteristics. Infrastructure can be viewed pictorially as a series of nodes linked by physical links which make up a network. It has to be stressed that one can circulate in two directions on each link of the network. The majority of links have the same technical characteristics both ways. But, in some case one will have to distinguish data on each of the direction. In that case two different fields should be filled: one from the A node to the B node direction; another from the B node to the A node direction. Each of these different types of links are illustrated below with lists of the different data types needed to be collected for each link. An example of an Excel data table, which will contain the data collected for each link is also presented below.

Types of Links coded :

• Road Link (including Ferry-Boat Road)

• Rail Link (including Ferry-Boat Rail)

• Shipping Link (vessel)

• Port Link (transhipment)

• Border Link (rail and road)



2.1 The Network: General The following example illustrates the simple network structure to be used in the database. Major road and rail links, the black lines will join nodes. Each link contains information such as the distance, travel time and type of transport between each node pair, etc.

Figure 2—1 Example of Network with Nodes and Links


BCEOM

2.2 Specific Links: Customs Border Crossing and Ports The example below is of a road border crossing at customs. Each border crossing is different with each having varying tariffs and longer or shorter queuing times to cross. This has a significant impact on journey making decisions and is therefore necessary information for the database, e.g. service time, queuing time(delay), etc. There is one customs link at each customs stop. This means there are two links at each border crossing.

Figure 2—2 Example of Customs Link.

Country X Border Link

August 2001

International Border

Node B

Node B
Node A Node A
OUT

OUT

IN

IN

Country Y Border Link

A6 6



The following example illustrates the node and link formation for ports and shipping links. Ports are attached to the main network via road and/or rail transhipment links. The port itself is modelled using two nodes, A and B. The link between these nodes represents the interchange of goods and passengers from road and rail to the ships, containing such data as time, type of port and transhipment parameters. Ports are then linked to other ports via a shipping link which contains such data as distance, travel time and ship types.

Figure 2—3 Example of Port and Shipping Links

Shipping Link

Node A

Node A

Node B

Port Link 2

Port Link 1

Node B

Rail Link

Road Link

Road Link

Rail Link



2.3 Required Data for each Link The following table lists the data required to be collected for the rail links.

Table 2-1 Rail Links

Field number Field name Unit Description

Range/ Format

Key Variables

K1 Table Number: 2.1 2.1

K2 Year number year Data represents 2000

Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text Provide Source of Information

Contents variables

C1 A Node number node number is fixed Code

C2 B Node number node number is fixed Code

C3 A Node – Name Text Name

C4 B Node – Name Text Name

C5 Link Mode Type 20 fixed as 20 for rail

C6 Opened / Closed 1 or 2 1: if the railway link is closed or under construction , 2 : if it is open

C7 Total Length km Total length of link

C8 Multiple tracks length km Length of multiple track on the section

C9 Single track length km Length of single track on the section: Deducted from C7 minus C8

C7=C8+C9

C10 Signalling km kilometre equipped with automatic signalling

C11 Signalling km kilometre equipped with semi-automatic signalling

C12 Signalling km kilometre equipped with centralised signalling

C13 Electrification 1 or 2 1: line is accessible only to diesel trains 2: line is also accessible to electric trains

C14 Electric km

C15 Diesel km

C7 = C14 + C15

C16 Maximum speed on Line km/h Maximum speed on the link

C17 Kilometres of speed limitations

km Number of km of speed limitations which are enforced over a long period of time (1 year or more)

C18 Average speed – Freight trains

km/h Operational Speed

C19 Average speed – Passenger trains

km/h Operational Speed

C20 Average commercial speed – Freight trains

km/h Include stopping time in stations along link

C21 Average commercial speed Passenger trains

km/h Include stopping time in stations along link




Range/ Format

speed – Passenger trains

C22 Maximum load forward A-B

tons Maximum load for freight trains: on track forward, from node A- to node B

C23 Maximum load backward B-A

tons Maximum load for freight trains: on track backwards, from node B- to node A



The following table lists the data required to be collected for the Road links.

Table 2-2 Road Links


Range/ Format

Key Variables

K1 Table Number is 2.2 2.2

K2 Year number Year Data represents 2000

Source Variables

S1 Source ID text Provide Source of Information

Contents variables

C1 A Node number Node number is fixed Code

C2 B Node number Node number is fixed Code

C3 A Node – Name text Name

C4 B Node – Name text Name

C5 Link Mode Type 30 fixed as 30 for Road Link

C6 Opened / Closed 1 or 2 1: if the road link is closed or under construction, 2 : if it is open

C7 Total Length km Total Length of the link

C8 Road Name text e.g. M7, A21, R32, E77

C9 Category Ia km kilometre of road of category Ia (see definition in the Annex)

C10 Category Ib km Kilometre of road of category Ib (see definition in the Annex)

C11 Category II km kilometre of road of category II (see definition in the Annex)

C12 Category III km kilometre of road of category III (see definition in the Annex)

C13 Category IV km kilometre of road of category IV (see definition in the Annex)

C14 Category V km kilometre of road of category V (see definition in the Annex)

C7= C9 + C10 +

C11 + C12 + C13 + C14

C15 Mountainous km Length of mountainous road

C16 Flat km Length of flat road

C7 = C15+C16

C17 Surfaced pavement km length of surfaced pavement

C18 Unsurfaced pavement km length of unsurfaced pavement

C7 = C17+C18

C19 Pavement condition good km Length of pavement in good condition

C20 Pavement condition fair km Length of pavement in fair condition

C21 Pavement condition bad km Length of pavement in bad condition

C7 = C19 + C20

+C21

C22 Width carriageway metre Average width carriageway C23 Width carriageway with

hard shoulders metre Average width carriageway with hard

shoulders

C24 Lowest Maximum axle load permissible

tons/axle Lowest Maximum axle load allowed on the link : 6 tons, 8 tons, 10 tons, … / axle (taking into account the weakest section of the link)

Limited Axle Load




Range/ Format

C25 Lowest Maximum Vehicle Weight permissible

tons Lowest Maximum vehicle weight allowed on the link : (taking into account the weakest section of the link)

Limited vehicle weight

C26 Car speed km/h Average running speed Cars (excluding unexpected stops: police, etc…)

C27 Bus speed km/h Average running speed Buses (excluding unexpected stops: police, etc…)

C28 Truck speed km/h Average running speed Trucks (excluding unexpected stops: police, etc…)

C29 Extra costs Dollars Average extra costs incurred on the link - e.g. extra-tariffs, etc…(apart from operational costs)

C30 Road Capacity between A to B direction

Vehicles /day

Road capacity per day one way from A node to B node

C31 Road Capacity between B to A direction

Vehicles /day

Road capacity per day one way from B node to A node



The following table lists the data to be collected for the Shipping links.

Table 2-3 Shipping Links

Field number

Field name Unit Description Range/ Format

Key Variables



Source Variables

S1 Source ID number

S2 Date of Last Update number Date when data have been last updated

Contents variables

C1 A Node number Node number is fixed Code

C2 B Node number Node number is fixed Code

C3 Port Name A text name of port in Country A

C4 Port Name B text name of port in Country B

C5 Link Type 10 link number fixed as 10 for Shipping Link

C6 Opened / Closed 1 or 2 1: if the shipping link is closed, 2: if it is open C7 Distance km average distance (taking into account detours)

C8 Time hour average time to go from one port to another (excluding loading time)



2.4 Ports links The following table lists the data to be collected for Port links.

Table 2-4 Port Links

Field Number

Field Name Unit Description Range/ Format

Key Variables



Source Variables

S1 Source ID number

Technical Description Variables

C1 A Node number Code

C2 B Node number Code

C3 Node A Name text

C4 Node B Name text

C5 Link Mode Type 60 link type code is 60 for Port Link

C6 Opened / Closed 1 or 2 1: if the Port link is closed, 2: if it is open

C7 Access Channel Depth m

C8 Access Channel Length m

C9 Port Water Area m2 Area

C10 Port Onshore Area m2 Area

Multiple fields :

BERTHS

Field Number Field Name Number

of Berths

Draft at Berth

(m)

Total Berth Length

(m)

Max. DWT Vessel at

Berth

(tons)

Operational Lifting

Equipment Capacity

Total (tonnes)

Total Berth

Capacity

(tons / year)

C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16

C11-C16 General cargo berths

C17 C18 C19 C20 C21 C22

C17-C22 Liquid Bulk Berths Non-Oil

C23 C24 C25 C26 C27 C28

C23-C28 Liquid Bulk Berths Mineral Oil

C29 C30 C31 C32 C33 C34

C29-C34 Dry Bulk Berth

C35 C36 C37 C38 C39 C40



C35-C40 Specialised Berths (ferry, etc.)

C41 C42 C43 C44 C45 C46

C41-C46 Container Berth

SHEDS & WAREHOUSES

Field Number


C47 Multipurpose Warehouses – Commodities

number

C48 Multipurpose Warehouses – Total Area

m2

C49 Multipurpose Terminal – Capacity

m3

C50 Storage open sheds (Number)

number

C51 Storage open sheds (Area)

m2



2.5 AIRPORTS The following table lists the data to be collected for AIRPORTS .

Table 2-5 AIRPORT Field Number


Key Variables



Source Variables

S1 Source ID number

Technical Description Variables

C1 Airport Name text Name of Airport

C2 Intermational - Domestic text

C3 Dimension of Runway (1) L x W Length x width

C4 Dimension of Runway (2) L x W Length x width

C5 Type of aircrafts landing text Aircraft types

C6 Aircrafts based at Airport Text Aircraft types

C7 Number of Parking spaces Number



3. Socio-Economic Data at Oblast Level

The following data is used for the forecasting (generation phase) and to reconstruct missing flow data in the database. Information should be provided at the Oblast level. One Oblast corresponds to one Oblast or a group of Oblasts (see in the Annex).

Table 3-1 List of Socio-Economic Data Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 3.1

K2 Year Number Year Data represents 2000

K3 Traceca Country ID Text

Source Variables

S1 Source ID ID

Contents Variables

V1 Oblast Number Number Code

V2 Oblast Name Text Name of Oblast

Population / Oblast

P1 Population thousand Inhabitants

Total Population number

P3 Total number of household thousand units

Total number of households (e.g.: families)

P4 Rural population thousand Inhabitants

Population living outside cities

P5 Urban population thousand Inhabitants

Population living in cities

Employment / Oblast

E1 Active Working Population thousand Inhabitant

Working Population

E2 Employment in agriculture sector thousand Inhabitant

Employment in agriculture sector

E3 Employment in industrial sector thousand Inhabitant

Employment in industrial sector

E4 Employment in service sector thousand Inhabitant

Employment in service sector

E1 = E2 + E3 +

E4

GDP / Oblast AT CONSTANT PRICES

G1 GDP th. Dollar Gross Domestic Product

G2 GDP / Capita Dollar Gross Domestic Product per capita



Field number


G3 GDP in agriculture sector th. Dollar Gross Domestic Product in agriculture sector

G4 GDP in industrial sector th. Dollar Gross Domestic Product in industrial sector

G5 GDP in service sector th. Dollar Gross Domestic Product in service sector

G1 = G3 + G4 +

G5

MAIN Commodities produced / Oblast - MAXIMUM 6 Commodity Groups per Oblast

C1 Commodity group °a” Code Commo. “a”

see of commodity group in the Annex

C1 Tonnage produced of “a” Tons/year Tonnage of Commodity produced in the Year

C2 Commodity group °b” Code Commo. “b”


C2 Tonnage produced of “b” Tons/year Tonnage of Commodity produced in the Year

C3 Commodity group °c” Code Commo. “c”


C3 Tonnage produced of “c” Tons/year Tonnage of Commodity produced in the Year

C4 Commodity group °d” Code Commo. “d”


C4 Tonnage produced of “d” Tons/year Tonnage of Commodity produced in the Year

C5 Commodity group °e” Code Commo. “e”


C5 Tonnage produced of “e” Tons/year Tonnage of Commodity produced in the Year

C6 Commodity group °f” Code Commo. “f”


C6 Tonnage produced of “f” Tons/year Tonnage of Commodity produced in the Year

Vehicle Registration Accumulated every year / Oblast

V1 Total vehicles Thousand Total number of vehicles (private and state owned)

V2 Car Thousand Number of cars (private and state owned)

V3 Mini-bus Thousand Number of mini-bus (private and state owned)

V4 Bus Thousand Number of bus (private and state owned)

V5 Truck 2-axle Thousand Number of trucks with 2-axles

V6 Truck 3 axles Thousand Number of trucks with 3-axles

V7 Truck > 3-axles Thousand Number of trucks with more than 3-axles

Spatial Characteristics / Oblast

S1 Total Area km2 Surface of the Oblast

S2 Cultivated Area km2 Surface of cultivated area

S3 not available for cultivation km2 Area not available for cultivation

S1 = S2 + S3

S4 Topography code General topography (1: flat, 2: hilly, 3: montainous)

1-3



4. Trade and Transport OD Information

Trade and transport OD information will be collected : 1. For each TRACECA country to the other 2. For transit flow from/to TRACECA and external to TRACECA countries 3. At a more disaggregated for flow from/to each Oblast to/from other Oblast (when

available) Various information needed are illustrated in the following figure

Figure 4-1 Scheme of Trade and Transport OD Tables

LegendTraceca Country Border

Zone

1. International Trade - Import/export

2. Transit through Traceca Country

3. Disagregate International Trade from/to zone

4. Domestic Trade Interzone Data



4.1 International Trade Data at National Level

Export

Table 4-1 (1) List of International Trade – EXPORT (All Modes) Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 4.1.1 EXPORT All Modes


K3 TRACECA Country Exporting Text Name of the TRACECA Exporting Country

Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text

Content Variables

C0 Country of Destination of Freight Code Code of Country /or Group of countries 1 to 35

C1 Weight Tons Export Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code 1 Tons for the year



Ditto Ditto Ditto Export Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code … Tons for the year

Cn Weight Tons Export Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code n Tons for the year

Ditto Ditto Ditto Export Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code … Tons for the year




Table 4-2 (2) List of International Trade – EXPORT (by Rail) Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 4.1.2 EXPORT by Rail (at the Borderv Crossing –this includes rail mode at the arrival at Port, if any)



Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text

Content Variables


C1 Weight tons Export Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code 1 Tons for the year



Ditto Ditto Ditto Tons for the year

Cn Weight Tons Export Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code n Tons for the year





Table 4-3 (3) List of International Trade – EXPORT (by Road) Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 4.1.3 EXPORT by ROAD (at the Borderv Crossing –this includes road mode at the arrival at Port, if any)



Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text

Content Variables






Cn Weight tons Export Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code n Tons for the year





Table 4-4 (4) List of International Trade – EXPORT (by Pipe) Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 4.1.4 EXPORT by PIPE-LINE (at the Borderv Crossing –this includes Pipe mode at the arrival at Port, if any)



Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text

Content Variables


C5 Weight tons Export Freight Tonnage of Petroleum Products (Code 5) /Refined Products

Tons for the year

C6 Weight tons Export Freight Tonnage of Crude Oil (Code 6) Tons for the year



Import

Table 4-2 (1) List of International Trade – IMPORT (All Modes) Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 4.2.1 IMPORT All Modes


K3 TRACECA Country Importing Text Name of the TRACECA Importing Country

Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text

Content Variables

C0 Country of Origin of Freight Code Code of Country /or Group of countries 1 to 35

C1 Weight Tons Import Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code 1 Tons for the year




Cn Weight Tons Import Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code n Tons for the year





Table 4-2 (2) List of International Trade – IMPORT (by Rail) Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 4.2.2 IMPORT by Rail (at the Borderv Crossing –this includes rail mode at departure from Port, if any)



Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text

S2 Date of Last Update Date Date when data have been last updated

Content Variables


C1 Weight tons Import Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code 1 Tons for the year




Cn Weight tons Import Freight Tonnage of Commodity Code n Tons for the year





Table 4-2 (3) List of International Trade – IMPORT (by Road) Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 4.2.3 IMPORT by ROAD (at the Borderv Crossing –this includes road mode at the departure from Port, if any)



Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text


Content Variables


C1 Weight tons Import Freight Tonnage of Commoity Code 1 Tons for the year




Cn Weight tons Import Freight Tonnage of Commoity Code n Tons for the year





Table 4-2 (4) List of International Trade – IMPORT (by Pipe) Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 4.2.4 IMPORT by Pipe (at the Borderv Crossing –this includes Pipe mode at the departure from Port, if any)



Source Variables

S1 Source ID Text


Content Variables


C5 Weight tons Import Freight Tonnage of Petroleum Products (Code 5) /Refined Products

Tons for the year

C6 Weight tons Import Freight Tonnage of Crude Oil (Code 6) Tons for the year



5. Traffic Flow Data Collection

5.1 Road Vehicle Counts Manual Classified Counts (MCCs) are taken at Roadside sites and at strategic points on the network. They consist of one or several people counting traffic flows which pass a pre-determined point along a road. They are used in transport databases for the following:

• Validating transport models. Actual traffic flows are compared to modelled traffic flows at a specific point on a network.

• Constructing a ‘gravity model’. An origin-destination model showing Oblast to Oblast movements of an area estimated from traffic flows between them.

Data collected at each point are the total amount of traffic passing each point at certain times and what types of vehicle are passing. Depending on the level of detail required for the survey, typical MCCs count the following vehicles:

• 2 wheeled vehicles (motorcycles, mopeds)

• Cars and Taxis

• Buses and Coaches

• Light Goods Vehicles (Pick-Up/Vans)

• Heavy Goods Vehicles (distributed by their total number of axles) Further detail could consist of separating Goods Vehicles into more specific groups according to the number of axles and whether or not they are articulated.



Table 6-1 List of Road Traffic counts under AADTFormat

Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 6.1 Road Traffic Counts (AADT)


Source Variables

S1 Source ID ID

Contents variables

C1 A Node Number Number A node of road link Code

C2 B Node Number Number B node of road link Code

C3 A Node Name Text Name of Node A

C4 B Node Name Text Name of Node B

C5 Link Type 30 link number fixed as 30 for road Code

C6 Direction 3 3 - both directions

C7 2 wheeled vehicles (motorcycles, mopeds)

Number Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

C8 Cars and Taxis Number AADT

C9 Mini-Bus Number AADT

C10 Bus and Coach Number AADT

C11 Light Goods Vehicles (PU/vans) Number AADT

C12 Heavy Goods Vehicles: Truck 2-axle

Number AADT

C13 Heavy Goods VehiclesTruck 3-axle

Number AADT

C14 Heavy Goods VehiclesTruck>3-axle

Number AADT



5.2 Rail Traffic

Table 6-2 Rail Traffic

Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 6.2


Source Variables

S1 Source ID ID

Contents variables by Rail LINK

FIRST LINE C1 A Node Number ID A node of rail link Code

C2 B Node Number ID B node of rail link Code


C4 B Node Name Text Name of Node B

C5 Link Type 20 Link number fixed as 20 for rail Code

C6 Direction Code: 1 1: if A to B 2: if B to A

3 if both directions

C7 Number of passengers per year A – B

Number Traffic Passengers per year

F1 Load per Year Direction: from A to B

Tons Load Tonnage of Commodity Code 1





Ditto Ditto

Fn Load per Year Direction: from A to B

Tons Load Tonnage of Commodity Code n

Ditto Ditto



SECOND LINE C’1 A Node Number ID A node of rail link Ditto C1

C’2 B Node Number ID B node of rail link Ditto C2

C’3 A Node Name Text Name of Node A Ditto C3

C’4 B Node Name Text Name of Node B Ditto C4

C’5 Link Type 20 Link number fixed as 20 for rail



Field number


C’6 Direction Code: 2 1: if A to B

2: if B to A 3 if both directions (total 1 + 2)

C’7 Number of passengers per year B – A

Number Traffic Passengers per year

F1 Load per Year Direction: from B to A




F3 Load per Year Direction: from A to A


Ditto Ditto

Fn Load per Year Direction: from B to A

Tons Load Tonnage of Commodity Code n

Ditto Ditto





6. Transhipment Traffic : Ports & Borders

Transhipment data will be associated with specific links of the network

6.1 Port Traffic

Table 7-1-(1) Port Traffic - LOADING/EXPORT including TRANSIT OUT

Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 7.1.1 EXPORT/LOADING VESSEL


K3 PORT EXPORTING Text Name of Port

Source Variables

S1 Source ID ID-Text

Contents variables

C1 Weight tons Loading Commodity Code 1 Tons for the year

C2 Weight Tons Loading Commodity Code 2 Tons for the year

C3 Weight Tons Loading Commodity Code 3 Tons for the year


Cn Weight tons Loading Commodity Code n Tons for the year


C25 Weight tons Loading Commodity Code 25 Tons for the year



Table 7-2-(3) Port Traffic - UNLOADING/IMPORT including TRANSIT IN

Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 7.1.3 IMPORT/UNLOADING VESSEL


K3 PORT IMPORTING Text Name of Port

Source Variables


Contents variables

C1 Weight tons Unloading Commodity Code 1 Tons for the year

C2 Weight Tons Unloading Commodity Code 2 Tons for the year

C3 Weight Tons Unloading Commodity Code 3 Tons for the year


Cn Weight tons Unloading Commodity Code n Tons for the year


C25 Weight tons Unloading Commodity Code 25 Tons for the year



6.2 AIRPORTt Traffic

Table 7-3 Airport Traffic

Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 7.1.1 EXPORT/LOADING VESSEL


K3 AIRPORT Text Name of AirPort

Source Variables


Contents variables

C1 Liaison (other Airport) text ALL AIR CONNECTIONS

C2 Distance km Air Distance between Airport (K3) and other airport

C3 Average Flying time hour Flying hours between Airport (K3) and other airport

C4 Annual Passengers Number Annual Number of Passengers in year Both ways

C5 Annual Freight Tons Annual Freight (in tons per year) Both ways



6.3 Border Crossings

Table 7-3-1 Border Crossing Traffic (ROAD Vehicles)

Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 7.3.1 K2 Year number Year Data represents 2000 K3 Country Text Country Source Variables

S1 Source ID number

Contents Variables

C1 Border Name Text

C2 A Node number Node A number Code

C3 B Node number Node B number Code


C5 B Node Name Text Name of Node AB

C6 Link Type 93 fixed as 93 for Road border crossing link Code

C7 Country on the other side of the Border

Text Name

From A node to B node DIRECTION: IN COUNTRY (Import direction)

C8 Traffic Car A -B (IN) number AADT CAR

C9 Traffic Bus A -B (IN) number AADT BUS

C10 Traffic Truck A - B (IN) number AADT ALL TRUCKS

From B node to A node DIRECTION: OUT Country (Export direction)

C11 Traffic Car B –A (OUT) number AADT CAR

C12 Traffic Bus B –A (OUT) number AADT BUS

C13 Traffic Truck B - A (OUT) number AADT ALL TRUCKS



Table 7-3-2 Border Crossing Traffic (RAIL Trains)

Field number


Key Variables

K1 Table Number 7.3.2 K2 Year number Year Data represents 2000 K3 Country Text Country Source Variables

S1 Source ID number

Contents Variables

C1 Border Name Text

C2 A Node number Node A number Code

C3 B Node number Node B number Code


C5 B Node Name Text Name of Node AB

C6 Link Type 92 fixed as 92 for Rail border crossing link Code

C7 Country on the other side of the Border

Text Name

From A node to B node DIRECTION: IN COUNTRY (Import direction)

C8 Traffic Rail A - B (IN) number Average Number of PASSENGER trains / day

C9 Traffic Rail A - B (IN) number Average Number of FREIGHT trains / day

From B node to A node DIRECTION: OUT Country (Export direction)

C10 Traffic Rail B – A (OUT) number Average Number of PASSENGER trains / day

C11 Traffic Rail B – A (OUT) number Average Number of FREIGHT trains / day



ANNEXES



7. Annexes

7.1 List of Modes and Link Types

Mode Name Mode Type ID

Shipping-Maritime Link 10

Rail Link and Ferry-Rail Link 20

Road Linkand Ferry-Road Link 30

Port –Port Customs Link 60

Transphipment Rail 62

Transhipment Road 63

Border/Customs Rail Link 92

Border/Customs Road Link 93



7.2 List of Commodity

Commodity groups have been set up from the 97 subclasses of the international classification system adopted in the FSU (also called Harmonised System HS 96). This classification is provided in the next pages.

A second component considered for commodity grouping is the classification system -also used in the FSU- in railway transport (11 categories including "Other").

Names of commodity groups CODE HS96 Commodity Names

Project Code

Products of animal origin 1 Living animals 22

Products of animal origin 2 Meat and meat sub-products 22

Products of animal origin 3 Fish and crustacea, shellfish and other water invertebrates 22

Products of animal origin 4 Milk and dairy produce; poultry eggs; natural honey, foodstuffs of animal origin, having not been nominated in any other place

22

Products of animal origin 5 Foodstuffs of animal origin, not nominated in other places 22

Agriculture Products 6 Living trees and other plants; bulbs, roots and other analogous parts of plants; cut flowers and ornamental plants

23

Agriculture Products 7 Vegetables, some edible root-crops and tuber crops 23

Agriculture Products 8 Edible fruits and nuts; rind and peel of citrus plants or water-melons, melons and gourds 23

Agriculture Products 9 Coffee, tea and spices 23

Non processed Agriculture Products 10 Grain and Cereals 7

Food Stuff 11 Products of flour-grinding and cereals industry 24

Agriculture Products 12 Oil- bearing seeds and fruits; other seeds, fruits and grains; officinal plants and plants for technical purposes; straw and forage

23

Agriculture Products 13 Shellac; gums; pitch and other vegetable saps and extracts 23

Agriculture Products 14 Vegetable materials for making wicker-wares; other products of vegetable origin, having not been named in another place

23

Products of animal origin 15 Fats and oils of animal and vegetable origin; products of their decomposition; ready food fats; waxes of animal or vegetable origin

22

Products of animal origin 16 Goods made of meat, fish or crustacea, shellfish or other water invertebrates 22

Food Stuff 17 Sugar and confectionary made of sugar 24



Food Stuff 18 Cocoa and products made of it 24

Food Stuff 19 Goods made of cereals, flour, starch and milk; farinaceous confectionery 24

Food Stuff 20 Products of processing of vegetables, fruits, nuts and other parts of plants 24

Food Stuff 21 Various foodstuffs 24

Food Stuff 22 Alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks and vinegar 24

Food Stuff 23 Remains and waste of food industry; ready- fodders for animals 24

Agriculture Products 24 Tobacco- plant and industrial substitute for tobacco 23

Cement 10 Wares from stone, gypsum, cement 25

All other Construction Materials (excluding Cement) 11 To be

Splited

Coal 1 Coke 2 Bauxite 3

Ore & minerals 26

All Other ores including salt 4

To be Splited

Refined petroleum products; bituminous materials; mineral wax, diesel, mazout, etc. 5

Oil Products 27

Crude mineral Oil 6

To be Splited

Products of Chemical Industry 28

Inorganic chemistry products; inorganic and organic compound of precious and rare earth metals, radioactive elements and isotopes

9

Products of Chemical Industry 29 Organic chemical compounds 9

Products of Chemical Industry 30 Pharmaceutical products 9

Products of Chemical Industry 31 Fertilizers 8


Tanning and dying extracts; tannins and their products; dye- stuffs, pigments and other dying materials; dyes and varnishes; putty and other mastics; ink (printer’s ink)

9

Products of Chemical Industry 33 Essential oils and rezinoids; perfumer, cosmetic and

toilet- set 9


Soap, superficial active organic matters, detergents, lubricants, synthetic ready waxes, compounds for cleaning and polishing, candles and analogous goods; paste for modelling, plasticine, “dental wax” and gypsum- based compounds for dental purposes

9

Products of Chemical Industry 35 Albumens; modified starches; glues; ferments 9

Products of Chemical Industry 36 Explosives; pyrotechnics; matches; pyrophor alloys;

some types of fuel 9

Products of Chemical Industry 37 Photo and cinema goods 9



Products of Chemical Industry 38 Other chemical products 9

Rubber and Plastic 39 Plastics and goods made of plastics 17

Rubber and Plastic 40 Rubber and rubber goods, tyres 17

Textile and its wares 41 Tanning materials (fur excluded) and leather 19

Textile and its wares 42 Leather products; saddles and harness; traveling outfit; handbags and similar goods; goods made of animal guts (catgut made of natural silk excluded)

19

Manufactured Goods 43 Real and artificial furs and goods made of them 25

Timber / Lumber 14 Wood and its wares 44

Wood and goods made of it (other that Timbe/Lumber) 15 To be

Splited

Wood and its wares 45 Cork and goods made of it 15

Wood and its wares 46 Goods made of straw, alpha and other materials for wicker- work; baskets and other wicker- wares 15

Paper and its wares 47 Paper of wood- pulp and other fibrous vegetable materials; spoilt sheet, cardboard and paper for recycling

16

Paper and its wares 48 Paper and cardboard; products of paper-pulp, paper and cardboard 16

Paper and its wares 49 Printed books, newspapers, reproductions and other goods of printing industry; manuscripts, typescript and plans

16

Textile and its wares 50 Silk 19

Textile and its wares 51 Wool; thin and coarse hair of animals; horsehair yarn and fabric 19

Textile and its wares 52 Cotton 18

Textile and its wares 53 Other vegetable textile fibres; paper yarn and fabrics made of it 19

Textile and its wares 54 Chemical threads 19

Textile and its wares 55 Chemical staple fibres 19

Textile and its wares 56 Waddling, thick felt and unwoven fabrics; special yarn; twine, rope and cord goods, cables, strings and goods made of it

19

Textile and its wares 57 Carpets and other textile floor covers 19

Textile and its wares 58 Special fabrics; fabrics with sewn nap; laces, tapestry, trimming materials; embroidery 19

Textile and its wares 59 Steeped, duplicated textile fabrics, fabrics with coating; technical goods made of them 19

Textile and its wares 60 Hand- made and machine- made jersey 19

Textile and its wares 61 Clothes and articles of jersey clothes 19

Textile and its wares 62 Clothes and textile clothes (excluding jersey) 19

Textile and its wares 63 Other ready- made textile wear; complete sets; second- hand clothes and textile goods; rags 19

Textile and its wares 64 Footwear, gaiters and analogous goods; their parts 19



Textile and its wares 65 Head- dresses and their parts 19

Manufactured Goods 66 Umbrellas, canes, sitting- sticks, switches, whips and their parts 25

Manufactured Goods 67 Processed feather and down and goods made of them; artificial flowers; goods made of human hair 25

Wares from stone, gypsum, cement 68 Goods made of rock, gypsum, cement, asbestos, mica

and other similar materials 11

Wares from stone, gypsum, cement 69 Ceramic goods 11

Wares from stone, gypsum, cement 70 Glass and goods made of it 11

Manufactured Goods 71 Natural and cultivated pearl, precious and semiprecious stones, precious metals, metals plated with precious materials and goods made of them; bijouterie; coins

25

Scrap Metal 12 Metal ferrous and non ferrous 72

Ferrous metls 13

To be Splited

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 73 Goods made of ferrous metals 13

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 74 Copper and goods made of it 13

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 75 Nickel and goods made of it 13

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 76 Alluminium and goods made of it 13

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 78 Lead and goods made of it 13

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 79 Zinc and goods made of it 13

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 80 Tin and goods made of it 13

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 81 Other non- precious metals; metal ceramics; goods made of them 13

Manufactured Goods 82 Instruments, knives, spoons, forks made of non- precious metals; their parts made of non- precious metals

25

Metal ferrous and non ferrous 83 Other goods made of non- precious metals having not been nominated in other place 13

Machinery, equipment and Mechanisms 84 Nuclear reactors, boilers, equipment and mechanical

contrivances; their parts 21

Machinery, equipment and Mechanisms 85 Electrical machines and equipment, their parts 21

Machinery, equipment and Mechanisms 86 Devices Apparatus and Appliances 21

Machinery, equipment and Mechanisms 87 Overland means of transport, their parts and

equipment 21

Machinery, equipment and Mechanisms 88 Aircraft; spaceships, their parts 21

Machinery, equipment and Mechanisms 89 Vessels, boats and other floating means 21

Manufactured Goods 90 Cinematograph and optical apparatus and devices, cameras, checking and measuring instruments, precision devices, surgical and medical instruments

25



and apparatus; their parts and fittings

Manufactured Goods 91 Watches and their parts 25

Manufactured Goods 92 Musical instruments; their parts and fittings 25

Manufactured Goods 93 Weapons and ammunition; their parts and fittings 25

Manufactured Goods 94

Furniture; bedding, matrasses, matrass warps, cushions and analogous padded articles of furniture; lighting appliances and their parts, having not been nominated in another place, indicator boards and analogous goods; prefabricated building elements

25

Manufactured Goods 95 Toys, games and sports goods; their parts and fittings 25

Manufactured Goods 96 Various ready- made goods 25

Manufactured Goods 97 Works of art, collection articles and antiquary 25

Machinery, equipment and Mechanisms Containers 20

Other Goods Other and Miscellaneous 25



7.3 List of Countries and Oblasts • International country code nomenclature is used for country ID.

• Zone ID is a combination of country code followed by specific two digit number. Country / Region Country

Prefix-ID Internal Zone

Code Zone ID Oblast Name Internal

Code

TRACECA Countries

Armenia 951 1

95101 Arafat 1

95102 Aragacotn 2

95103 Armavir 3

95104 Erevan 4

95105 Geharkunik 5

95106 Kotaik 6

95107 Lori 7

95108 Shirak 8

95109 Syunik 9

95110 Tavush 10

95111 Vajoc Dzor 11

Azerbaijan 931 2 2

93101 Absheron 1

93102 Khachmaz 2

93103 Shirvan 3

93104 Priarak 4

93105 Gyanja 5

93106 Mugan-Salyan 6

93107 Lenkoran 7

93108 Upper Karabakh 8

93109 Kalbajar 9

93110 Mil Karabakh 10

93111 Shaki 11

93112 Kazakh 12

93113 Nakhichevanskaya A.R. 13

Georgia 268 3 3

26822 Kaheti 22

26823 Shuda Kartley 23

26824 Kvemo Kartley 24

26825 Mtskheta-Mtianeti 25



Country / Region Country Prefix-ID

Internal Zone Code

Zone ID Oblast Name Internal Code

26826 Samtche-Djavachetey 26

26827 Imereti 27

26828 Racha-Lechkhumi & Kvemo Svaneti

28

26829 Samegrelo – Zemo Svaneti 29

26830 Guriya 30

26832 Achara 32

26834 Tbilisi 34

Kazakhstan 398 4 4

39804 Zapadno-Kazakchstanskaya 104

39805 Atyrausskaya 105

39806 Mangistausskaya 106

39807 Kustanaiskaya 107

39808 Turgaiskaya 108

39809 Aktyubinskaya 109

39810 Severo-Kazakchtanskaya 110

39811 Kokchetavskaya 111

39812 Pavlodarskaya 112

39813 Akmolinskaya + Astana City 113

39814 Karagandinskaya 114

39815 Djezkazganskaya 115

39816 Semipalatinskaya 116

39817 Vostochno-Kazakchstanskaya

117

39818 Taldy-Kurganskaya 118

39819 Almatinskaya + Almaty City 119

39820 Kzyl-Ordinskaya 120

39821 Yujno-Kazakchstanskaya 121

39822 Djambul’skaya 122

Kyrghyzstan 417 5 5

41754 Djelal-Abadskaya 54

41755 Issyk-Kulskaya 55

41756 Narynskaya 56

41757 Oshskaya 57

41758 Talasskaya 58

41759 Chuiskaya 59

41760 Bishkek 60




Internal Zone Code


Moldova 498 6

49801 Edinet 1

49802 Soroca 2

49803 Balti 3

49804 Orhei 4

49805 Ungheni 5

49806 Chisinau 6

49807 U.T. din Stinga Nistrului 7

49808 Lapusna 8

49809 Tighina 9

49810 Cahul 10

49811 Taraclia 11

49812 U.T. A. Gagauzia 12

Mongolia 496 7

49601 Arkhangai 1

49602 Bayanolgii 2

49603 Bayankhongor 3

49604 Bulgan 4

49605 Govi-Altai 5

49606 Dornogovi 6

49607 Dornod 7

49608 Dundgovi 8

49609 Zavkhan 9

49610 Ovorkhangai 10

49611 Omnogovi 11

49612 Sukhbaatar 12

49613 Selenge 13

49614 Tov 14

49615 Uvs 15

49616 Khovd 16

49617 Khovsgol 17

49618 Khentii 18

49619 Darkhan-Uul 19

49620 Ulaanbaatar 20

49621 Orkhon 21

49622 Govi-Sumber 22

Tadjikistan 762 8

76261 Districts of republican submission / Dushanbe - RRP

61




Internal Zone Code


76262 Leningradskaya 62

76263 Khatlonskaya 63

76264 Gorno-Badahshanskaia autonomous GBAO

64

Turkmenistan 795 9

79512 Maryiskii velayat 12

79513 Lebap velayat – Chardzew 13

79514 Ashgabad & Akhal velayat 14

79515 Dashoguzskii velayat 15

79516 Balkanskii velayat-Turkmenbashi

16

Ukraine 804 10

80401 Cherkasskaya 1

80402 Chernigovskaya 2

80403 Chernovetskaya 3

80404 Crimea Autonomous Republic 4

80405 Sevastopol 5

80406 Dnepropetrovskaya 6

80407 Donetskaya 7

80408 Ivano-Frankovskaya 8

80409 Kharkovskaya 9

80410 Khersonskaya 10

80411 Khmelnitskaya 11

80412 Kievskaya + Kiev City 12

80413 Kirovogradskaya 13

80414 Luganskaya 14

80415 Lvovskaya 15

80416 Nikolayevskaya 16

80417 Odessaskaya 17

80418 Poltavskaya 18

80419 Rovnenskaya 19

80420 Sumskaya 20

80421 Ternopilskaya 21

80422 Vinnitskaya 22

80423 Volinskaya 23

80424 Zakarpatskaya 24

80425 Zaporojskaya 25

80426 Zjitomirskaya 26

Uzbekistan 860 11

86030 Ferganskaya 30




Internal Zone Code


86030 Andijanskaya 30

86030 Namanganskaya 30

86031 Tashkentskaya + Tashkent City

31

86031 Djizakskaya 31

86031 Syrdarinskaya 31

86032 Navoiiskaya 32

86032 Republic of Karakalpakstan 32

86032 Khorezmskaya 32

86033 Samarkandskaya 33

86033 Bucharskaya 33

86034 Kashkadar’inskaya oblast 34

86034 Surkhandar’inskaya oblast 34

Other Countries (outside TRACECA)

Afganistan 004 12

Belarus 112 13

Bulgaria 100 14

China 156 15

Czech Republic

Slovakia

203 16

Hungary 348 17

Iran 364 18

Pakistan 586 19

Poland 616 20

Romania 642 21

Russia 643

Russia (European part)

22

Russia (Asian part) 23

Turkey

792 24

Group of External Countries

Western Europe 925 25

South Eastern Europe,: Balkan

926 26

Scandinavia 927 27

Baltic States 928 28

Indian Sub Continent 929 29

Middle East 930 30




Internal Zone Code


South East Asia 931 31

Far East Asia 932 32

Africa 933 33

North America 934 34

Central South America 935 35


BCEOM August 2001 A.6 49

ORDER by CODE ALPHABETIC ORDER by COUNTRY

CODE COUNTRY CODE COUNTRY

TRACECA COUNTRIES 12 Afghanistan A

1 Armenia 33 African countries (all)

2 Azerbaijan 26 Albania

3 Georgia 35 Argentina

4 Kazakstan 1 Armenia

5 Kyrgyzstan 32 Australia

6 Moldova 25 Austria

7 Mongolia 2 Azerbaijan

8 Tadjikistan 13 Belarus B

9 Turkmenistan 25 Belgium

10 Ukraine 29 Bengladesh

11 Uzbekistan 35 Bolivia

35 Brazil

ONE COUNTRY ONE CODE 14 Bulgaria

12 Afghanistan 31 Cambodia C

13 Belarus 34 Canada

14 Bulgaria 34 Central America Countries

15 China 35 Chili

16 Czech Republic & Slovakia 15 China

17 Hungary 35 Columbia

18 Iran 24 Cyprus

19 Pakistan 16 Czech Republic

20 Poland 27 Denmark D

21 Romania 33 Egypt E

22 Russia Europe-West Ural 35 Equator

23 Russia Asia-East Ural 28 Estonia

24 Turkey 27 Finland F

GROUP of COUNTRIES 25 France

25 Austria Western and South Europe 26 FYROM

25 Belgium Western and South Europe 3 Georgia G



25 France Western and South Europe 25 Germany

25 Germany Western and South Europe 25 Greece

25 Greece Western and South Europe 35 Guiana

25 Ireland Western and South Europe 32 Hong Kong H

25 Italy Western and South Europe 17 Hungary

25 Liechenstein Western and South Europe 29 India I

25 Luxemburg Western and South Europe 31 Indonesia

25 Netherlands Western and South Europe 30 Irak

25 Portugal Western and South Europe 18 Iran

25 Spain Western and South Europe 25 Ireland

25 Switzerland Western and South Europe 30 Israel

25 United Kingdom / GB Western and South Europe 25 Italy

26 Albania South Eastern Eur-Balkan 32 Japan J

26 Former Yugoslavia States South Eastern Eur-Balkan 30 Jordan

26 FYROM South Eastern Eur-Balkan 4 Kazakstan K

27 Denmark Scandinavian Countries 32 Korea (N & S)

27 Finland Scandinavian Countries 5 Kyrgyzstan

27 Norway Scandinavian Countries 31 Lao L

27 Sweden Scandinavian Countries 28 Latvia

28 Estonia Baltic States 30 Libanon

28 Latvia Baltic States 25 Liechenstein

28 Lithuania Baltic States 28 Lithuania

29 Bengladesh Indian South-continent 25 Luxemburg

29 India Indian South-continent 34 Mexico M

29 Sri Lanka Indian South-continent 6 Moldova

30 Irak Middle East 7 Mongolia

30 Israel Middle East 31 Myanmar/Burma

30 Jordan Middle East 25 Netherlands N

30 Libanon Middle East 27 Norway

30 Saudi Arabia Middle East 19 Pakistan P

30 Syria Middle East 35 Paraguay

30 UAE Middle East 35 Peru

31 Cambodia South-East Asia 31 Philippines

31 Indonesia South-East Asia 20 Poland

31 Lao South-East Asia 25 Portugal



31 Myanmar/Burma South-East Asia 21 Romania R

31 Philippines South-East Asia 22 Russia Europe-West Ural

31 Singapour South-East Asia 23 Russia Asia-East Ural

31 Thailand South-East Asia 30 Saudi Arabia S

31 Viet-Nam South-East Asia 31 Singapour

32 Australia Far-East Asia & Pacific 16 Slovakia

32 Japan Far-East Asia & Pacific 25 Spain

32 Korea (N & S) Far-East Asia & Pacific 29 Sri-Lanka

32 Taiwan Far-East Asia & Pacific 27 Sweden

33 African countries (all) AFRICA (All countries) 25 Switzerland

34 Canada North-Central America 30 Syria

34 Central America Countries North-Central America 8 Tadjikistan T

34 Mexico North-Central America 32 Taiwan

34 USA North-Central America 31 Thailand

35 Argentina South America 24 Turkey

35 Bolivia South America 9 Turkmenistan

35 Brazil South America 30 UAE U

35 Chili South America 10 Ukraine

35 Columbia South America 25 United Kingdom - GB

35 Equator South America 35 Uruguay

35 Guiana South America 34 USA

35 Paraguay South America 11 Uzbekistan

35 Peru South America 35 Venezuela V

35 Uruguay South America 31 Viet-Nam

35 Venezuela South America 35 West Indies W

35 West Indies South America 26 Yugoslavia Y



7.4 List of Border Crossings

COUNTRY Border

Crossing (A) Node

COUNTRY Border

Crossing (B) Node

Country Customs Name (node A) Country Border Crossing Name (Node B) Mode Link

OPPOSITE Country Name

ARMENIA

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

9511075 9511070 Border Armenia/Azerbaijan-A Ararat South Ararat South, Yeraskh 93 Azerbaijan

9511095 9511091 Border Armenia/Azerbaijan-A Ijevan Ijevan North 93 Azerbaijan

9511125 9511120 Border Armenia/Azer-Nahi-A Megri West Megri West 93 Azerbaijan

9511175 9511172 Border Armenia/Azer-A Megri East Megri East 93 Azerbaijan

9511205 9511201 Border Armenia/Azerbaijan-A Goris East Goris East 93 Azerbaijan

9511225 9511221 Border Armenia/Azerbaijan-A pass. Bich pass. Bichanekski South 93 Azerbaijan

9511005 9511002 Border Armenia/Georgia-A Bavra Bavra 93 Georgia

9511135 9511133 Border Armenia/Georgia-A Tasir Tasir-Gogovan 93 Georgia

9511165 9511160 Border Armenia/Georgia-A Bagratashen Bagratashen 93 Georgia

EXTERNAL TRACECA

9511105 9511100 Border Armenia/Iran-A Megri South Megri South 93 Iran

9511025 9511021 Border Armenia/Turkey-A Voskeask Voskeask 93 Turkey



RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

9515115 9515110 Border Armenia/Azerbaijan-A Idzhevan Idzhevan 92 Azerbaijan

9515125 9515121 Border Armenia/Azerbaijan-A Ararat South Ararat South, Yeraskh 92 Azerbaijan

9515185 9515180 Border Armenia/Azerbaijan-A Megri West Megri West Agarak 92 Azerbaijan

9515195 9515190 Border Armenia/Azerbaijan-A Megri East Megri East 92 Azerbaijan

9515015 9515010 Border Armenia/Georgia-A Bagratasen Bagratasen 92 Georgia

EXTERNAL TRACECA

9515205 9515200 Border Armenia/Iran Megri South – Terminus Megri South – Terminus 92 Iran

9515515 9515510 Border Armenia/Turkey-A Voskeask Voskeask 92 Turkey

AZERBAIJAN

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

9311035 9311030 Border Azerbaijan/Armenia-A Kazah Kazah (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

9311475 9311471 Border Azerbaijan/Armenia-A Minjivan Minjivan South (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

9311545 9311541 Border Azerbaijan/Armenia-A Lanchin Lanchin West (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

9311605 9311601 Border Azer-Nahi/Armenia-A Shahbuz East Shahbuz East (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

9311615 9311616 Border Azer-Nahi/Armenia-A Sadarak Sadarak North (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

9311635 9311631 Border Azer-Nahi/Armenia-A Megri Ordubad East (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

9311025 9311021 Border Azerbaijan/Georgia-A Kazah West Kazah West, Qirmizi Korpu (border of Georgia) 93 Georgia

9311195 9311191 Border Azerbaijan/Georgia-A Seki West Seki West (b. of Georgia-Lagodeki) 93 Georgia

EXTERNAL TRACECA

9311335 9311330 Border Azerbaijan/Iran Bilyasuvar South Bilyasuvar 93 Iran

9311375 9311370 Border Azerbaijan/Iran-A Astara Astara (b. of Iran) 93 Iran



9311625 9311621 Border Azer-Nahi/Iran-A Dulfa Dulfa West (b. of Iran) 93 Iran

9311295 9311291 Border Azerbaijan/Russia-A Samur Samur (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

9311617 9311614 Border Azer-Nahi/Turkey A Sadarak West Sadarak West (b. of Turkey) 93 Turkey

RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

9315045 9315040 Border Azerbaijan/Armenia -A Gazach Gazach (border Armenia) 92 Armenia

9315475 9315470 Border Azerbaijan/Armenia -A Minjevan Minjevan (b. of Armenia) 92 Armenia

9315635 9315630 Border Azer-Nahi/Armenia -A Dulfa East Dulfa East (b. of Armenia) 92 Armenia

9315875 9315870 Border Azer-Nahi/Armenia -A Sadarak Sadarak (border Armenia) 92 Armenia

9315815 9315810 Border Azerbaijan/Georgia -A Bouk Kasek Bouk Kasek (b. of Georgia) 92 Georgia

EXTERNAL TRACECA

9315375 9315370 Border Azerbaijan/Iran -A Astara Terminus Astara (b. of Iran) – Terminus 92 Iran

9315645 9315640 Border Azer-Nahi/Iran -A Dulfa South Dulfa South (b. of Iran) 92 Iran

9315835 9315830 Border Azerbaijan/Russia -A Yalama Yalama (b. of Russia)) 92 Russia

GEORGIA

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

2681255 2681251 Border Georgia/Armenia-A Nico. Ninocminda South (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

2681355 2681350 Border Georgia/Armenia-A Sada. Sadakhlo (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

2681385 2681380 Border Georgia/Armenia-A Boln. Bolnisi South, Guguti (b. of Armenia) 93 Armenia

2681335 2681332 Border Georgia/Azerbaijan-A Kras. Rustavi South, Kransni Most (b. of Azerbaijan) 93 Azerbaijan

2681375 2681371 Border Georgia/Azerbaijan-A Lago. Cnori East, Lagodekhi (b. of Azerbaijan) 93 Azerbaijan

EXTERNAL TRACECA



2681005 2681001 Border Georgia/Russia-A Gagra West Gagra West (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

2681185 2681184 Border Georgia/Russia-A Roki Roki (border to Russia-secondary) 93 Russia

2681325 2681321 Border Georgia/Russia-A Pasa. Pasanauri North (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

2681135 2681131 Border Georgia/Turkey-A Sarpi Sarpi (B. of Turkey) 93 Turkey

2681265 2681260 Border Georgia/Turkey-A Ahalcihe Ahalcihe South, Ochoshani (b. of Turkey) 93 Turkey

RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

2685355 2685351 Border Georgia/Armenia -A Sadakhlo Sadakhlo (b. of Armenia) 92 Armenia

2685335 2685332 Border Georgia/Azerbaijan -A Gardabani Gardabani (b. of Azerbaijan) 92 Azerbaijan

EXTERNAL TRACECA

2685005 2685001 Border Georgia/Russia-A Gagra Gagra North (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

KAZAKSTAN

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

3981505 3981504 Border Kazakstan/Kyrgyzstan Kegen South Kegen South, Kazak (B. of Kyrghyzstan) 93 Kyrghyzstan

3981555 3981556 Border Kazakstan/Kyrgyzstan Merke East Merke East (b. of Kyrghyzstan) 93 Kyrghyzstan

3981565 3981568 Border Kazakstan/Kyrgyzstan Taraz South Taraz South (b. of Kyrgzystan) 93 Kyrghyzstan

3981017 3981016 Border Kazakstan/Turkmenistan Fetivo Fetisovo South (b. with Turkmenistan) 93 Turkmenistan

3981145 3981136 Border Kazakstan/Uzbekistan M34 East M34 pass North (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

3981147 3981140 Border Kazakstan/Uzbekistan M34 West M34 pass South (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

3981575 3981576 Border Kazakstan/Uzbekistan Shymkent Shymkent South (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

EXTERNAL TRACECA

3981415 3981412 Border Kazakstan/China Bahty Bahty (b. of China) 93 China



3981435 3981432 Border Kazakstan/China Maikapchigai Maikapchigai (b. of China) 93 China

3981525 3981520 Border Kazakstan/China Horgos Horgos (b. of China) 93 China

3981005 3981116 Border Kazakstan/Russia Liek Liek (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981015 3981376 Border Kazakstan/Russia Bulaevo Bulaevo (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981025 3981304 Border Kazakstan/Russia Sherbats Sherbats (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981055 3981056 Border Kazakstan/Russia Kotaevka Kotaevka (b. of Russia ) 93 Russia

3981115 3981112 Border Kazakstan/Russia Ozinki Ozinki (b. of Russia ) 93 Russia

3981125 3981128 Border Kazakstan/Russia Zhirenkopa Zhirenkopa (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981135 3981108 Border Kazakstan/Russia Pogodaevo Pogodaevo (b. of Russia ) 93 Russia

3981175 3981172 Border Kazakstan/Russia Alibelasha Alibelasha (b. of Russia ) 93 Russia

3981215 3981216 Border Kazakstan/Russia Komsomolec Komsomolec North (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981295 3981296 Border Kazakstan/Russia Lozovoe Lozovoe (b. of Russia ) 93 Russia

3981305 3981308 Border Kazakstan/Russia Zelenirska Zelenirska (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981375 3981372 Border Kazakstan/Russia Mamisutra Mamisutra (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981385 3981388 Border Kazakstan/Russia Veseloyarsk Veseloyarsk South (b. of Russia ) 93 Russia

3981445 3981448 Border Kazakstan/Russia Karagan Karagan (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981455 3981452 Border Kazakstan/Russia Shemonaiha Shemonaiha (b. of Russia) 93 Russia

3981485 3981480 Border Kazakstan/Kyrgyzstan Georgievka Georgievka (b. of Kyrghyzstan) 93 Russia

RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

3985435 3985430 Border Kazakstan/Khyrgyzstan) Lugovaya Lugovaya East (b. of Kyrghyzstan) 92 Kyrghyzstan

3985045 3985040 Border Kazakstan/Uzbekistan Beineu South Beineu South (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

3985835 3985830 Border Kazakstan/Uzbekistan Detsaoy East Detsaoy East (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

3985845 3985840 Border Kazakstan/Uzbekistan Detsaoy West Detsaoy West (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan



3985935 3985930 Border Kazakstan/Uzbekistan Sary-Agach Sary-Agach East (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

EXTERNAL TRACECA

3985405 3985782 Border Kazakstan/China Druzhba Rail ro Road Druzhba Rail (b. of China) 92 China

3985115 3985110 Border Kazakstan/Russia Ozinki Ozinki (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985155 3985150 Border Kazakstan/Russia Alimbet. Alimbetouska (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985175 3985170 Border Kazakstan/Russia Tobol Tobol West (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985195 3985190 Border Kazakstan/Russia Rtroebratskli Troebratskii (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985255 3985250 Border Kazakstan/Russia Pavlodar Pavlodar East (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985315 3985310 Border Kazakstan/Russia Perropav. West Petropavlovsl West (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985325 3985320 Border Kazakstan/Russia Petropav. East Petropavlovsl East (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985375 3985370 Border Kazakstan/Russia Ust-K. Ust-Kamenogorsk North (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985565 3985560 Border Kazakstan/Russia Peskov. North Peskovoka North (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985575 3985570 Border Kazakstan/Russia Talshik Talshik (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985695 3985690 Border Kazakstan/Russia Semipal. Semipalatinsk North (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985865 3985860 Border Kazakstan/Russia Yaisan Yaisan (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985905 3985900 Border Kazakstan/Russia Razyezd Razyezd (b. of Russia) 92 Russia

3985945 3985940 Border Kazakstan/Russia Valeek West Valeekhanava West (b.of Russia) 92 Russia

3985955 3985950 Border Kazakstan/Russia Valeek. East Valeekhanava East (b.of Russia) 92 Russia

KYRGYZSTAN

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

4171015 4171011 Border Kyrgyzstan/Kazakstan Bishkek Bishkek North (b. of Kazakhstan) 93 Kazakhstan

4171025 4171023 Border Kyrgyzstan/Kazakstan Chaldovar Chaldovar (b. of Kazakhstan) ) 93 Kazakhstan



4171035 4171030 Border Kyrgyzstan/Kazakstan pass. Teo-Ashuu pass. Teo-Ashuu 93 Kazakhstan

4171275 4171271 Border Kyrgyzstan/Kazakstan Ken-Suu East Ken-Suu East (b. of Kazakhstan) 93 Kazakhstan

4171155 4171150 Border Kyrgyzstan/Tadjikistan Sari-Tash West Karamk Sari-Tash West, Karamyk (b. of Tadjikistan) 93 Tadjikistan

4171165 4171160 Border Kyrgyzstan/Tadjikistan Bordebe Bordebe South (B. of Tadjikistan) 93 Tadjikistan

4171115 4171110 Border Kyrgyzstan/Uzbekistan Osh North Osh North (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

EXTERNAL TRACECA

4171145 4171141 Border Kyrgyzstan/China Irkeshtam Irkeshtam (b. of China) 93 China

4171305 4171300 Border Kyrgyzstan/China Torugart Torugart (b. of China) 93 China

RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

4175025 4175020 Border Kyrghyzstan/Kazakstan Kara Balta Kara Balta (b. of Kazakhstan) 92 Kazakhstan

4175105 4175100 Border Kyrghyzstan/Uzbekistan Djelai-Abad West Djelal-Abad West (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

4175125 4175120 Border Kyrghyzstan/Uzbekistan Osh North Osh North (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

4175505 4175500 Border Kyrghyzstan/Uzbekistan Shamald. Shamaldysai (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

MOLDOVA

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

4981025 4981020 Border Moldova/Ukraine-A Mohyliv Podil'sky Border with Ukraine - Mohyliv Podil'sky 93 Ukraine

4981035 4981030 Border Moldova/Ukraine-A Tiraspol Border with Ukraine - Tiraspol 93 Ukraine

4981045 4981040 Border Moldova/Ukraine-A Dubasari Border with Ukraine - Dubasari 93 Ukraine

4981075 4981070 Border Moldova/Ukraine-A Lipcani Border with Ukraine - Lipcani 93 Ukraine

EXTERNAL TRACECA

4981055 4981050 Border Moldova/Romania-A Leuseni Border with Romania - Leuseni 93 Romania

RAIL



INTERNAL TRACECA

4985005 4985000 Border Moldova/Ukraine-A Movilau Molivau (border Ukraine) 92 Ukraine

4985045 4985040 Border Moldova/Ukraine-A Larga Larga (border Ukraine) 92 Ukraine

4985055 4985050 Border Moldova/Ukraine-A Cobasna Cobasna (border Ukraine) 92 Ukraine

4985095 4985090 Border Moldova/Ukraine-A Cuciurgan Cuciurgan (border Ukraine) 92 Ukraine

EXTERNAL TRACECA

4985025 4985020 Border Moldova/Romania-A Ungheni Ungheni (border Romania) 92 Romania

4985115 4985110 Border Moldova/Romania-A Giurgiulesti Giurgiulesti Giurgiulesti (border Romania) 92 Romania

TADJIKISTAN

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

7621155 7621150 Border Tadjikistan/Kyrgyzstan Dzirgatal Dzirgatal East (b. of Kyrgyzstan) 93 Kyrghyzstan

7621235 7621231 Border Tadjikistan/Kyrgyzstan Murgab Murgab North, Kyzyl Art (b. of Kyrghyzstan) 93 Kyrghyzstan

7621025 7621026 Border Tadjikistan/Uzbekistan Kurkak Kurkak North (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

7621035 7621030 Border Tadjikistan/Uzbekistan Kaibadam East Kanibadam East (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

7621055 7621050 Border Tadjikistan/Uzbekistan Ura Tube Ura-Tube North (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

7621075 7621071 Border Tadjikistan/Uzbekistan Tusa Daye Tusa Daye (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

EXTERNAL TRACECA

7621065 7621068 Border Tadjikistan/Afganistan Aivadj Aivadj (b. of Afganistan) 93 Afganistan

7621236 7621234 Border Tadjikistan/China Kulma Pass Murgab-Kulma Pass (b. of China) 93 China

RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

7625095 7625090 Border Tadjikistan/Uzbekistan Ayvadz West Ayvadz West (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

7625115 7625110 Border Tadjikistan/Uzbekistan Kanibadam Kanibadam (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan



7625135 7625130 Border Tadjikistan/Uzbekistan Chudjand Chudjand (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

7625145 7625140 Border Tadjikistan/Uzbekistan Dusanbe West Dusanbe West (b. of Uzbekistan 92 Uzbekistan

TURKMENISTAN

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

7951015 7951012 Border Turkmenistan/Kazakstan Bekdash North Bekdash North (b. of Kazakhstan) 93 Kazakhstan

7951215 7951212 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan Kerki North Kerki North, Talimardzan (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

7951225 7951220 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan Kerki East Kerki East (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

7951235 7951231 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan Charzew-Farab Farab (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

7951295 7951290 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan Gaz-Achak Gaz-Achak (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

7951315 7951310 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan Tashauz Tashauz (b. of Uzbekistan) 93 Uzbekistan

7951335 7951330 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan Kunya Kunya-Urgench (b. of Uzbekistan 93 Uzbekistan

EXTERNAL TRACECA

7951195 7955195 Border Turkmenistan/Afganistan Kushka Kushka South (b. of Afganistan) 93 Afganistan

7951075 7951073 Border Turkmenistan/Iran Gidriolum Gidriolum (b. of Iran) 93 Iran

7951105 7951101 Border Turkmenistan/Iran Ashgabat-Gaudan Gaudan (b. of Iran) 93 Iran

7951135 7951132 Border Turkmenistan/Iran Serahs Serahs West (b. of Iran) 93 Iran

RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

7955235 7955231 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan-A Farab Farab (border of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

7955295 7955290 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan-A Gazachak Gaz-Achak 92 Uzbekistan

7955535 7955530 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan-A Dash Dashovuz East (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

7955545 7955546 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan-A Kerki East Kerki East (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan



7955555 7955550 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan-A Kerki North Kerki North, Talimardzan (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

7955565 7955560 Border Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan-A Boldumsaz Boldumsaz (b. of Uzbekistan) 92 Uzbekistan

EXTERNAL TRACECA

7955195 7955190 Border Turkmenistan/Afganistan-Kushka Kushka-Rail Terminus 92 Afganistan

7955035 7955030 Border Turkmenistan/Iran-A Serahs Serahs (b. of Iran) 92 Iran

UKRAINE

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

8041095 8041090 Border Ukraine/Moldova-A Novoselycja Novoselycja (border with Moldova) 93 Moldova

8041165 8041160 Border Ukraine/Moldova-A Mohykiv Pobilsky Border with Moldova - Mohykiv Podil'sky 93 Moldova

8041185 8041180 Border Ukraine/Moldova-A Platonove Platonove (border with Moldova) 93 Moldova

8041205 8041200 Border Ukraine/Moldova-A Kuchurhan Kuchurhan (border with Moldova) 93 Moldova

EXTERNAL TRACECA

8041245 8041240 Border Ukraine/Belarus-A Gorn. Chernigov (border with Belarus) 93 Belarus

8041065 8041060 Border Ukraine/Hungary-A Chop Chop (border with Hungary) 93 Hungary

8041025 8041020 Border Ukraine/Poland-A Yagodin Yagodin (border with Poland) 93 Poland

8041055 8041050 Border Ukraine/Poland-A Krakovecs Krakovecs (border with Poland) 93 Poland

8041125 8041120 Border Ukraine/Romania-A Porubne Porubne (border with Romania) 93 Romania

8041255 8041250 Border Ukraine/Russia-A Hloukhiv Hloukhiv (border with Russia) 93 Russia

8041275 8041270 Border Ukraine/Russia-A Lopan Lopan (border with Russia) 93 Russia

8041305 8041300 Border Ukraine/Russia-A Kras. Krasnodon (border with Russia) 93 Russia

8041315 8041310 Border Ukraine/Russia-A M19/E40 M19/E40 (border with Russia) 93 Russia

8041035 8041032 Border Ukraine/Slovakia-A Uzghord b. of Slovakia 93 Slovakia



RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

8045095 8045090 Border Ukraine/Moldova-A Rozdilna South Rozdilna South (b. of Moldova) 92 Moldova

8045195 8045190 Border Ukraine/Moldova-A Marn. Mamaliga (b. of Moldova) 92 Moldova

8045245 8045240 Border Ukraine/Moldova-A Slob. Slobidka (border Moldova) 92 Moldova

8045255 8045250 Border Ukraine/Moldova-A M-P Mohiviv-Podilsky (border Moldova) 92 Moldova

EXTERNAL TRACECA

8045155 8045150 Border Ukraine/Belarus-A Gornestaivka Gornestaivka (b. of Belorussia) 92 Belorussia

8045065 8045060 Border Ukraine/Hungary-A Chop Chop (b of Hungary) 92 Hungary

8045005 8045000 Border Ukraine/Poland-A Yagodin Yagodin (b. of Poland) 92 Poland

8045055 8045050 Border Ukraine/Poland-A Mostyska Mostyska (b of Poland) 92 Poland

8045165 8045160 Border Ukraine/Russia-A Ch. Michailivsky Ch. Michailivsky (b. Russia) 92 Russia

8045185 8045180 Border Ukraine/Russia-A Doneck Doneck (b. Russia) 92 Russia

UZBEKISTAN

ROAD

INTERNAL TRACECA

8601015 8601011 Border Uzbekistan/Kazakstan Tashkent North Tashkent North (b. of Kazakhstan) 93 Kazakhstan

8601235 8601232 Border Uzbekistan/Kazakstan Sidar'y West Sirdar'y West (b. of Kazakhstan) 93 Kazakhstan

8601245 8601244 Border Uzbekistan/Kazakstan Djizak Djizak North (b. of Kazakhstan) 93 Kazakhstan

8601115 8601111 Border Uzbekistan/Kyrgyzstan Savay Savay (b. of Kyrghyzstan) 93 Kyrghyzstan

8601065 8601061 Border Uzbekistan/Tadjikistan Kokand West Kokand West (b. of Tadjikistan) 93 Tadjikistan

8601225 8601222 Border Uzbekistan/Tadjikistan Bekabad Bekabad (b. of Tadjikistan) 93 Tadjikistan

8601265 8601261 Border Uzbekistan/Tadjikistan Havast Havast (b. of Tadjikistan)) 93 Tadjikistan



8601415 8601411 Border Uzbekistan/Tadjikistan Sanasi Sanasi (b. of Tadjikistan) 93 Tadjikistan

8601325 8601324 Border Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan Karsi South Karsi South. Talimardizan (b. of Turkmenistan) 93 Turkmenistan

8601365 8601361 Border Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan Termez West Termez West (b. of Turkmenistan) 93 Turkmenistan

8601645 8601640 Border Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan Alat Alat (b. of Turkmenistan) 93 Turkmenistan

8601695 8601691 Border Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan Hodjeili Hodjeili South (b. of Turkmenistan) 93 Turkmenistan

8601715 8601710 Border Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan Hazorasp Hazorasp (b. of Turkmenistan) 93 Turkmenistan

8601735 8601730 Border Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan Dashovuz To Dashovuz in Turkmenistan 93 Turkmenistan

8601745 8601740 Border Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan Mangit South Mangit South (b. of Turkmenistan) 93 Turkmenistan

EXTERNAL TRACECA

8601385 8601380 Border Uzbekistan/Afganistan Termez South Termez South (b. of Afganistan) 93 Afganistan

RAIL

INTERNAL TRACECA

8605025 8605020 Border Uzbekistan/Kazakstan Tashkent Tashkent North (b. of Kazakhstan) 92 Kazakhstan

8605245 8605240 Border Uzbekistan/Kazakstan Sydarinskaya Syrdarinskaya West (b. of Kazakhstan) 92 Kazakhstan

8605255 8605250 Border Uzbekistan/Kazakstan Dzhizak Dzhizak North (b. of Kazakhstan) 92 Kazakhstan

8605325 8605320 Border Uzbekistan/Kazakstan Kungirod Kungirod North (b. of Kazakhstan) 92 Kazakhstan

8605345 8605340 Border Uzbekistan/Kyrghyzstan Uchkurgan Uchkurgan (b. of Kyrghyzstan) 92 Kyrghyzstan

8605355 8605350 Border Uzbekistan/Kyrghyzstan Karasu Karasu (Uzb.) (b. of Kyrghyzstan) 92 Kyrghyzstan

8605075 8605070 Border Uzbekistan/Tadjikistan Kokand West Kokand West (b. of Tadjikistan) 92 Tadjikistan

8605125 8605120 Border Uzbekistan/Tadjikistan Denay Denay (b. of Tadjikistan) 92 Tadjikistan

8605135 8605130 Border Uzbekistan/Tadjikistan Boldyr Boldyr (b. of Tadjikistan) 92 Tadjikistan

8605215 8605210 Border Uzbekistan/Tadjikistan Bekabad Bekabad (b. of Tadjikistan) 92 Tadjikistan

8605115 8605110 Border Uzbekistan/Turmenistan Termez Termez West (b. of Turkmenistan) 92 Turkmenistan

8605315 8605312 Border Uzbekistan/Turmenistan Bukhara Bukhara South (b. of Turkmenistan) 92 Turkmenistan



8605375 8605372 Border Uzbekistan/Turmenistan Karsi South Karsi South (b. of Turkmenistan) 92 Turkmenistan

8605395 8605390 Border Uzbekistan/Turmenistan Hazorasp Hazorasp (b. of Turkmenistan) 92 Turkmenistan

8605405 8605400 Border Uzbekistan/Turmenistan Savot Savot (b. of Turkmenistan 92 Turkmenistan

8605415 8605410 Border Uzbekistan/Turmenistan Tohiatos Tohiatos (b. of Turkmenistan) 92 Turkmenistan



7.5 Definition and List of Standard Category for Road Standards

The following table summaries the categorisation of roads based on their calculated traffic volume and their economic and administrative importance.

Calculated traffic flow rate, vehicles/day

Category

of the road

Passenger car equivalents

Vehicles/transport units

Economic and administrative

importance of roads

I-a

over 14000 over 7000 National highways (including those for international communications)

I-b

over 14000

over 7000

National roads (except those belonging to category I-a)

II From 6000 to 14000 From 3000 to 7000 Roads of republican and regional importance

III

from 2000 to 6000 from 1000 to 3000 National roads and roads of republican and regional importance (except those belonging to categories I-b and II) and local roads

IV

from 200 to 2000 from 100 to 1000 Roads of republican and regional importance and local roads (except those belonging to categories I-b, II, and III)

V

to 200 to 100 Local roads (except those belonging to categories III and IV)

Categories of road can be set to the highest rated traffic flow capacity per hour as follows :

over 2400 Category I

from 1600 to 2400 Category II

from 800 to 1600 Category III

The carriageway width parameters associated with each design category are as follows:

Carriageway Width Parameters Road Categories I-a I-b II III IV V Number of traffic lanes 4;6;8 4;6;8 2 2 2 2

Traffic lane width (m) 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.5 3 -

Carriageway width 2x7.5 2x7.5 7.5 7 6 4.5



2x11.5 2x11.5

2x15 2x15

Minimum width of edge treatment (m) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.5 0.5 -



7.6 Notes for Data Entry

• All kilometre and metre measurements to 1 decimal place unless unnecessary

• Time measurements in hours

• When data cannot be found, enter N/A in the Excel cell.

• When data has been found to be a ‘0’ value, enter ‘0’ value. • In the List of Source Information, please enter the name of all data sources and add a

new Source ID code. Include address, telephone, email and other details with the name when possible.

TRACECA Programme Traffic and Feasibility Studies: TNREG 9803 MODULE A TRAFFIC FORECASTING MODEL Operating Manual

AUGUST 2001

TRACECA TRAFFIC FORECASTING

MODEL

VERSION 1.0

MM.TRACE.FR

OPERATING MANUAL

BCEOM - August � 2001

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies – Module A FINAL REPORT Traffic Forecasting Model – Operating Manual

BCEOM August 2001

1

1. Background This document is intended to provide instruction on the installation, use and maintenance of the TRACECA Traffic Forecasting Model � MM.TRACE.FR (Multi-Modal TRaffic Asia, Caucasus, Europe FoRecast).

1.1 The Purpose of Model

The principal purpose of the model is to develop scenarios to forecast future traffic in the form of a computer simulation. The resultant demand on the network should accurately reflect the data gathered from the real world as a cross check that the model is functioning correctly. All data are collected by teams of local correspondents in each of the eleven countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. Once the existing network has been built, the model can be used to run scenarios that include details of any proposed revisions (new or improved shipping, road or rail links) to the current network. By applying socio-economic forecast data of future (�to-be�) demand in a given country, the predicted demand on the existing network can be examined to ascertain the positive or negative impact on traffic flows in the whole area. The model can be used to run �what-if� scenarios. In other words, new links or improvements to existing links can be implemented in the model and the effects in the immediate and surrounding areas will produce a new set of data, which can be used to make informed judgements on the viability of the new transit links. The optimum transport network can then be built in the real world environment using the evidence from the model�s scenario runs.

1.2 Model Capabilities

The model is designed with the intent of allowing maximum access to the database pertaining to the Traceca corridor (10 countries) thus enabling the user to test a broad range of possible scenarios. Flexibility of usage covers aspects concerning future forecast socio-economic data and potential future changes in travel times and costs along the Traceca corridor routes alone. Data can be held on the condition and topography of the link and applied to the general cost. Road factors such as surface condition, number of lanes, percentage of the link that travels through mountainous regions, whether the link crosses an international border and whether that border is closed or open to traffic can all be recorded and used in the model. Rail links will include data such as the maximum/commercial speeds of the link, electrification details, multi tracks, signalling and later: percentage of speed limitations.

1.3 User Requirements

It is advised that the user of the software should have training in both the principles of simulation modelling and �hands on� experience with transport modelling application. The presentation provides not only the background of the package but also the functionality of the model and an understanding of its application, in other words, in what situations the application can be used to best advantage.


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2. Installation 2.1 Hardware and Software Requirements

The user must possess an IBM compatible machine with a recommended minimum specification of 366 Mhz processor; recommended � 500 Mhz 4 Gb Hard Drive 128 Mb RAM; recommended � 256 Mb Windows 2000 operating system Recommended � MS Office XP MM.TRACE.FR software places certain requirements to the Windows Regional Options installed on Your computer. Before using the program the user should make sure that the decimal symbol is in the form of a point �.� and not a comma �,� or any another symbol. To do it, you should select Settings / Control Panel option from the Windows main menu and then click on the Regional Options icon in the opened Windows Explorer screen. (See figure below)

Go to Numbers tab on the dialog box that appeared. Then check what symbol Windows is using as decimal symbol. It is a point (�.�) on the picture below. If Your OS used another symbol, enter a point «.». Then verify Your choice by clicking OK.

Decimal symbol


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2.2 Installing the software on your computer

To install the software, insert the CD-ROM, close the drive and find Installation folder on your CD drive with help of Windows Explorer. In this folder You will find Setup.exe installation program, which You need to double click with the mouse left button to run MM.TRACE.FR installation process on Your computer. The center of the screen will visualize the picture with the title (MM.TRACE.FR) of the program on a blue background. A little below You will see a small rectangle of another window, which will inform of the loading of Installation Wizard. In a few seconds You will see a new welcoming window of Installation Wizard (see picture below).

Just click on Next button. The following window of the Wizard will offer You to select a folder where Setup will install MM.TRACE.FR (see picture below).

In the bottom of the window You will see Destination Folder rectangle, where the program suggests its own path to the folder. The user (in case he/she does not agree with default folder) can independently select (name) the destination folder. To do so, click Browse button and go to the destination folder select window. Returning to the initial window (see picture above), click Next. Then You will see a new window of setup type selection (see picture below). Please save Typical option and just click Next.


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The following window enables You to install program icon which will appear in Windows main menu (Start / Programs / �) (see picture left below).

Save suggested title and click Next. The last window (see picture right above) expects Your last click on Next button to run installation process. After successful completion of installation You are supposed to see the window shown below.

Click Finish to complete Setup Wizard operational .


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3. Descriptions and Diagrams

3.1 Description On start up you will see a screen similar to that below [Fig 1]. The program is designed to be a web-based application using Active X controls embedded in an HTML page and runs through Internet Explorer 4.0 or higher.

Fig 1 - Main screen

When the page opens, the base map of TRACECA region will be loaded [Fig. 1]. For the first run of the recently installed program You need to create your own project. Select New Project from File menu [Fig. 1], which will display Open New Project dialog box on the screen, and enter the title of the future project [Fig. 2]. The user is recommended to create a separate folder to hold all created projects. On fig. 2 you can see that in our example the new Project1 project will be opened in the TRACECA folder. After a click on the Open button, MM.TRACE.FR will copy the new project folder titled Project1 into the destination folder.

Fig. 2 � Open New Project Dialog Box

After a short while (depending on the speed of your machine) a series of nodes and links will be displayed on the screen [Fig. 3]. Take a minute to explore the network. You will need to change the scale of its resolution. To do it, tick the Zooming box on the right of the menu bar (if it is not ticked). Then left-click and drag


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the mouse without releasing it, trying to draw a rectangle over that part of the network you are currently interested in. The area will be highlighted in pale turquoise as you do this and when the mouse button is released, the new area will be displayed at a higher resolution [Fig 4]. If You wish to display a wider area, You will need to left-click the mouse on the map holding Shift button on the keyboard. After this operation the program will redraw the map in a lower scale.

Рис. 3 � Unzoomed (original) map with network displayed

When the zoom facility moves down to an area of up to 500km (on one side), the individual nodes will be displayed with labels stating the name of the city or junction [Fig 4 & 7].

Рис. 4 � Azerbaijan Region showing node labels. Note colour differences between nodes, links and labels for shipping, road and rail transit systems

Nodes are also colour coded for easy identification. Internal rail nodes are represented by black squares, internal roads by red circles and external rail and road such as rail/ferry terminals are represented by blue outlined triangles [Fig. 7]. Links between nodes are coloured to match the mode of transport. If desired, it is possible to change the colour of any links, nodes or virtual paths (paths crossing non-Traceca countries). This can be achieved in View / Options menu by clicking on the Drawing tab [Fig. 5]. The line thickness of each link type can also be adjusted here. However, for the time being it is recommended to stay with the default colours and sizes.


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Fig. 5 �Drawing tab of Options menu enables to change colour and thickness of any line on the map

Go to View menu and select Network / Scale 100% to return to the original size map [Fig. 6].

Fig. 6 � Map zooming scale change instructions

Now we will try to build a path through the network. Initially, we will use View / Shortest Path, which can be used to ensure that there is a transport link between two nodes. If the path exists in reality the program is able to reflect this fact visually for the user.

3.2 Shortest Path Go to View menu and select Shortest Path. You will be asked to �Click on First Node� by a small tip in the top left corner of the main window [Fig. 7].


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8

Fig. 7 � It is easy to click exactly on the required node if the map is zoomed in

You may have to zoom the main window in to successfully pick up the first node. Zoom to Azerbaijan (easily found by the �L� shaped blue links representing shipping across the Caspian Sea) then click on a node. Let�s take for example the Dubendi Oil Terminal at the corner of the �L�. It is a black square lying on a red circle with a blue triangle overlaying it, which tells us that it is a shipping, a rail and a road node at the same time. Click on the node and the tip in the top left will change to �Now click on second Node� [Fig. 8]. Use Network / Scale 100% to return to the full sized map and then select a second node. Zooming in on the extreme left (West) of the network try to find Kavel, which is the northernmost city in the area, placed on a road network only (red circle on red links). Click on Kavel and a supplementary window Number of Pathes will appear [Fig. 8].

Fig. 8 � A click on the last node of the selected path will display «Number of Pathes» dialog box which enables the uset to indicate the number of alternative paths to the program

This dialog box is intended for the user�s selection of the number of alternative paths, which the program will try to locate. Once this number is fixed and OK button is clicked, the program will perform a search and display the result in the form of a bolder line bypassing the used links. In case You have already selected the search of more than one path the program will display the assigned number of lines of different color [Fig. 9].


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Fig. 9 � The map with two plotted paths from Dubendi to Kavel

As shown on fig. 9 the program found two paths from Dubendi to Kavel (in accordance with our choice). You will note that the route is split up into two alternative routes over Ukraine and in Georgia and Azerbaijan. In the example above the program performed a search using roads and shipping lines. However, in order to build paths through railways the program will be guided by additional information on the properties of the forecasted freights to be transported along the sought route. To be more exact, the program does care if the freight is oil (crude oil or oil products) or any other freight except oil (crude oil or oil products). It is related to the fact that every rail link has a separate «open/closed» property for oil and non-oil freights. In order to have an idea how the program considers the given information we will select Network / Pathbuilding from Tools menu of the main program menu. This instruction will display Path Build Details window. In the top right corner of the window (in the Network box) You can see two to-be-ticked circles Without Oil and Only Oil. Clicking on one of them You can apply the selected regime for all the following operations of path search.

Fig. 10 Path Build Details option window

Numbers of the nodes that we have just selected for path building appear in white rectangular boxes (note that Build Test Path tab is enabled). The bottom section of the window displays a consecutive list of all nodes of the path for the last path building operation. As we have chosen a relatively long path, the nodes involved extend down the window so scroll down to see the

2nd path

2nd path

1st path

1st path

2nd path

1st path

Origin and destination nodes of the path

Build Test Path tab

Scroll bar


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rest of the path. Each node is listed by name followed by its node number, and in all cases but the last node on the link, the cumulative cost of the path to that point. As the path is plotted BACK from the destination node, the first node displayed is followed by the total cost of the route, which is also reflected at the end of the list as a total cost. In addition to the primary (optimal) path, the secondary or �next best� path is displayed (if we searched for more than one path) which will naturally have a slightly higher cost associated with it. The window has a number of other parameters, which can be manually adjusted. You will have to change only some of these parameters. Let us look at the second right Network bar which has three buttons: Rail, Road and All Nodes. The default option of the program for path building is All Nodes. However, in some cases the path building may lead to unexpected results. If You deliberately or by mistake select a rail node as Origin and a road node as Destination than all the paths built for the OD pair will lie through port nodes where goods are allowed to be transshipped. If You do not want to allow the program to perform freight transshipment from road to rail and vice versa, use the appropriate Rail and Road buttons of the Network bar. The next and the last parameter which You need to pay attention to is Number of Paths for Each Origin-Destination Pair located in the top left corner of the window [Fig. 10]. This parameter entered in the appropriate box represents the number of sought paths for one path building operation. Pathbuilding button on Build Test Path tab can also be used to perform path building operation for the pair of nodes (Origin� Destination) which codes are selected in two relevant boxes above. Upon completion of the instruction the program will display the search result on the map. Then You just need to close the window by Exit to see the map. If You prefer to use the current window for optimal path building You will have to enter node codes manually (Origin-Destination). To learn the code of a node it is necessary to click the mouse pointer on the required node on the map with rather high magnification. The screen will visualize Node Properties information window that refleсts the node code and name. Memorize the node code and press OK button to clear the screen. In some cases, when nodes are close to each other on the map, the program may continue displaying the given information window for the neighboring node. Therefore, pay attention to the name of the node displayed in this window.

Fig. 11 Node Properties Screen

After learning the node codes (Origin � Destination) You will again have to open Path Build Details window where You can enter the values of node codes into the appropriate boxes and run the path building operation via Pathbuilding button. If some default parameters of this window unknown to You have been changed for some reason, You can return them via Default Values button. On this stage it should be noted that the pathbuilding operation result is always written into one or several files with .txt extension (make sure Text Files option of Write To bar of Path Build Details window has been selected [Fig. 10]. Files titled BestRoute1.txt, BestRoute2.txt, etc. (for


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each of the built paths) are written by the program into the Projectname\ System\Working folder. These files can be opened by almost any word processor (for instance, Windows Notepad). These files are rewritten with every new pathbuilding operation. Therefore, if You wish to save the results of the last search as text files, place these files into a specially reserved folder before performing the next pathbuilding operation.


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4. A guided step-by-step walk through the software

Getting Started We are now going to take you through the process of running the software. Just follow the on screen instructions in this section while enacting the commands in the top section. Scroll this instruction screen down as you progress through the walkthrough. Before you can do anything you must open a project (or start a new project). As the new project creation procedure was highlighted in paragraph 4.1, below we will provide the rules for opening an existent project. If after installing MM.TRACE.FR into Your computer You did not create a new project, You will have to create at least one new project as described in paragraph 4.1.

Step 1 � Opening a Project Above the map is a menu bar. Initially, it only displays two options: File and Help. Select File\Open Project. An open project file dialog screen will open up for you. In Your computer file system You have to find the folder containing a previously created project. An example of such a folder is provided in the figure below. All three folders - Database, Scenarios, System - and the file with .pdn extension are obligatory attributes of a project. Moreover, the name of the selected file without extension must exactly correspond to project folder name (the program always follows the above-stated rules by default while creating a project).

Fig. 5.1 Open Project Window

Select Project1.pdn file and click Open. It takes a little while to open and when it is open the network should now be displayed over the top of the original map. The network is coloured to denote the type of node or link displayed. The default program colors are: RED represents roads, BLACK represents railway infrastructure and BLUE represents shipping routes.

Step 2 � Moving Around the Network The map and network are currently displayed at the lowest magnification. i.e. the entire network is visible in the window. Zooming In and Out with the Menu and Moving Map with Right Mouse Button

Make sure the Zooming check box at the top right hand corner of pd-Mmdb's menu bar is checked. Then select View\Network\Zoom In to zoom in and take a closer look at any network section You wish. If after zooming in the map moved aside and hid the desired areas You can move the map. If You, for instance, want to move the map to the left, i.e. to display areas hidden in the right, click with right mouse button somewhere on the right side of the map and drag the pointer to the left without releasing the mouse button. As soon as You release the button the


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map will be re-plotted reflecting the previuosly hidden right sections. You will notice that this procedure moves the map at an assigned distance and in the user-specified direction. You can View\Network\Zoom in again if you want more magnification - as much as you wish. Select View\Network\Zoom Out to zoom back out again. Select View\Network\Scale 100% to go back to the beginning and see all of the region. Zooming In and Out with the Left Mouse Button

Make sure the Zooming check box at the top right hand corner of pd-Mmdb's menu bar is checked. Then using the mouse, click and hold the left mouse button down on the map While still holding the mouse button down, slide the mouse down and right so that a light blue square appears over the top of the two ports. Release the mouse button and the section highlighted will now fill the main map window. Then using the mouse, click and hold the left mouse button down on the map. While still holding the mouse button down, draw a square on the map trying to cover only the area of Your current interest. The square will turn to light blue and when You release the mouse button the section highlighted will now fill the main map window. [Fig. 4]. If You desire to cover a wider area You need to simply hold Shift button on the keyboard and left-click on the map. After this the program will re-draw the map in a smaller scale. What you may see

Now zoom in further on the Batumi port area (the lower of the two ports on the western coast of Georgia if the names are not shown). Try to focus on the 6 blue triangles of the Batumi port area. At this close magnification, it can be seen that the nodes themselves are different colours and shapes. Road nodes are displayed as RED CIRCLES. Rail nodes are shown as BLACK SQUARES. Finally, shipping nodes are shown as BLUE TRIANGLES. It is worth noting at this point that the "Batumi Rail" node appears as a blue triangle overlaying a black square and the "Batumi Road" node is shown as a blue triangle over a red circle. Nodes which have two symbols occupying the same space have a special purpose as they are nodes where Mode Changes take place. Shipping will unload freight which will then be transferred to a road vehicle or train to complete its journey overland. You should now return the map to the low magnification by selecting View\Network\Scale 100%.

Step 3 - Using the DataViewer to View the Database The database contains all the transport data including the places, borders and physical links. Using the map

Zoom in closely so that you can identify an individual link. Point the mouse at the middle of an individual link and click the left mouse button. You should see the Link Properties screen which gives some details about the link including the names of the nodes at each end of the link.

Fig. 5.3.1 Link Properties Screen


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Clicking the Details button should take you into the database screen which shows the detailed data about this link. More about the database screens later but for now select Back to search page to close this screen and then click OK to close the Link Properties screen. You can view the data for a node by clicking on the node with the left mouse button and look at it details in the same way.

Fig. 5.3.2 Road Link Details Screen

Using the menu

You can also go to the database by selecting View\Database from the main menu. This takes you to the Data Search screen where you need to complete the four drop down list boxes within the panel. Select a country from the drop down list box (click on the down arrow to display the rest of the list in a list box). The next drop down list box contains a list of all the tables in the database for this country. Select either English or Russian from the next drop down list box and the year (either 1998 or 1999) from the last drop down list box.

Fig. 5.3.3 Data Search Screen

When you have completed your selection press the button labeled Search for Data Table to get the screen containing the data. At the top left of the screen, the right arrow takes you to the next record for this data, the left arrow takes you to the previous record, the button which has a left arrow and a vertical line takes you to the first record and the button which has a right arrow with a vertical line takes you to the last record for this data. Press the Back to search page

Four drop down list boxes


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button to return to the previous Data Search screen and press Close Viewer or OK to close the Database.

Fig. 5.3.4 Data Search Screen

Searching for a Node

While at the Data Search screen (to get to the Data Search screen see Viewing the Database using the menu above), in the panel labelled Search For Data fill in the node number of the node you wish to search for and press the button labelled Node Information. (If you want to know the number of a particular node left click on a node). Searching for a Link

While at the Data Search screen (to get to the Data Search screen see Viewing the Database using the menu above), in the panel labelled Search For Data fill in the two node numbers of the link you wish to search for and press the button labelled Search For Link Data. The program will display Road Link Details screen (if the user identified a road link) (See fig. 5.3.2)

Step 4 - Selecting and Viewing a Scenario

Plotting Options

Select from the main menu View\Options and click on the Plotting tab to view the plot options, and make sure that the only the following check boxes are checked: Total in the View Assignment panel, Draw Borders, Road and Rail links in the Plotting Options panel. You can choose whether you want Node Names to be drawn. Click on OK to register these options.

Fig. 5.3.5 Options Screen


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Note! In the bottom left set of switches You can select Language which the program will use in all of its dialog boxes, menu options and messages.

Step 5 � Working with a new scenario What is a Scenario?

Traffic forecasts are made for a scenario. A scenario relates to traffic levels in 2012 under a specific set of growth assumptions which the user can specify. The user can also change the transport network in the model and see what effect this would have on the future traffic on each part of the network. In this step you will learn how to view the results from running a scenario through the model. Opening a new scenario

Before displaying the results of traffic forecasting for TRACECA countries You need to open a network scenario. If You work with recently created project it does not contain the results of forecasting model run. To create Your own scenario You need select from the main menu File\Scenario\Open scenario. This option will display Open New Scenario dialog box screen shown below. At the same time, on the top of the window in a drop down list box, You will see Scenarios folder which is located directly in the folder of the current (currently open) project. This folder is designed specifically for keeping all scenarios of the current project and the user is not recommended to change the location of all the created scenarios. Then please enter the name of Your future scenario into the drop down list box to the left of the Open button. When afterwards You click Open the program will close the dialog box and create, inside Scenarios folder, new Scenario1 folder (in our case) with all the contents (sub-folders and files) of the new scenario.

Directly after this You will have to respond to a number of dialog screens shown below: 1) «Do you want to generate and load basic network for new scenario?». Click Yes as Your answer to this message. It means that irrespective of any changes You may or may not have made in the current transport network (changing details, closing or adding new links) the program will update the data on all links for the new scenario which enables You in future not to mix any previously made changes with new ones (for the new scenario).

1)

2)


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3)

The second Network Generating dialog box will ask You to select the language to be used for reflecting the data related to transport network (node names on the map), as well as the year for the network generation. After selecting these options and clicking OK the program will display a third and last Calculated! message, which tells that the network generation went successful. The program will need a few more seconds to load the data into the memory and visualize the generated network. Opening an existent scenario

In the previous paragraph we have discussed a new scenario creation. However, in the future You will often need to open previously created scenarios related to the current project. This operation greatly resembles the previous one and is implemented via Scenario / Open scenario option from File menu. The program will display a dialog box repeating the above-said with one difference only: Scenarios folder will contain a list of previously created sub-folders (scenarios). In the previous step we created a new scenario named Scenario1, therefore double-clicking on this folder we will display its contents as it is done in the window shown below. As You may see this folder contains three sub-folders: ScenarioForecasts, ScenarioMatrices, System and Scenario1.sc file. These folders are compulsory attributes of any scenario folder and cannot be modified by the user. Besides, the file name without .sc extension must exactly coincide with the name of the folder that contains it (by default the program always follows the above-stated conditions while creating a scenario). Click the file with .sc extension, then click Open. Then repeat the steps described in the previous paragraph (Opening a new scenario) in response to 2) и 3) � dialog boxes shown above � which the program consecutively displays.

Specifying Your Assumptions on Transport Demand

Select View\Forecasting from the main menu which will display Scenario Forecasting window shown below. Select a country from the drop down list box labelled Country Name and the Select Country panel will contain the economic assumptions about this country. Using 1998 and 1999 as a reference you can enter your assumptions for the surplus or deficit for each commodity group in kilograms per capita for the reference year (here, for the time being: 2012). The user is not required to enter assumptions for the surplus / deficit for each commodity group. The forecasting model independently puts forward statistic assumptions related to those commodity groups which hold zero values (not entered by the user) for the surplus / deficit.


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To sustain the statistic correctness of forecasting results the model limits the potentialities of the user related to proposed assumptions. The limitations are based both on the year 1998 data and on the economically justified hypothesis installed by the forecasting model designer. If the user attempts to initiate traffic forecasting based on admissible assumptions related to the surplus / deficit the program sends displays the relevant information message. Besides, You may enter Your assumptions related to the tariff adjustment factor, the average growth in population and in gross domestic product (GDP) per year according to the policy you wish to assume for this scenario. The tariff adjustment factor lets you adjust the network tariff on one country relative to another. The network tariff is used to compute the costs on each link of the network. The costs are used to determine the path traffic takes through the network and whether it goes by road or rail.

To view and/or correct these factors You need to use Tariff Factors button that displays the screen shown below. This window contains two similar tabs: Rail and Road. Switching between them You can display tariff factors for rail and road by countries respectively. Any modifications made are entered by OK and cancelled by Cancel. Specifying Your Assumptions on Transport Network The scenario for the transport demand must run on the appropriate transport network at the reference year. The default reference year (2012) network is the 1998 network for which the physical characteristics of the links are those of 1998 described in the Database. However, few new links -presently under construction- have been made operational at the reference year: rail links, or CPC, MEP pipes. To modify the content of the Database in order to appropriate the present characteristics to those prevailing at the reference year (2012) you have to follow the instructions and procedures mentioned in Step 7 below.


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Running the Scenario

Modifying the options assumed for the reference year in the Scenario Forecasting main window You still have the possibility to cancel the current changes by clicking Undo button. However, it should be noted that this button is active until You run the forecasting model by Run button or until You click Save button. Besides, You have the opportunity to go back to initial scenaroi data (if the current scenario was saved by Scenario / Save Scenario option in the File menu). To do it, You should leave Scenario Forecasting window and re-open the current scenario through Scenario / Open Scenario option from the File menu. Scenario Forecasting window contains a «Remove temp files» flag (checkbox) in the bottom left corner. This checkbox indicates to the program if temporary forecasting model data files need or need not to be deleted. These files are placed in Current Scenario\System\Working\Bin folder. If the flag mentioned above is checked the program will empty the Bin folder after its work. Uncheck the flag if You wish to save temporary data files. When you have entered your assumptions and you wish to view their effect on traffic press the button labelled Run and wait while MM.TRACE.FR runs the forecast through the model and calculates the forecast traffic levels on each link of the network using the whole complex of models. It generally takes half an hour on a 750 mHz Pentium 3 - longer on slower computers. The traffic levels will be displayed as bandwidths when it is finished. If there are no bandwidths plotted check the Plotting Options dialog under View\Options on the main menu. Straight after finishing the calculation the scenario will be assigned �Forecasted� property. This detail is displayed for the user in the form of a response to the question “Has the scenario forecast been calculated?: YES” on the top of Scenario Forecasting window. The user should pay attention to this option since any correction of Your assumptions regarding economic parameters of the scenario will change the value of this option to the opposite. As a result, the response to the message shown above (�Has the scenario forecast been calculated?”) will be �NO�. Thus, if the user wishes to save the results of forecasting correctly (i.e. in the way corresponding to the initial assumptions for the scenario) he should not change the economic assumptions after the forecasting model run. Otherwise, the user may repeatedly modify economic assumptions and run the forecasting model. The user is however recommended to save forecasting results immediately in order to be able to return to them afterwards and compare them visually with other scenarios. To save forecast results immediately and in a reliable way You should leave Scenario Forecasting window and call Scenario / Save Scenario option from File menu of the program main menu. In order to build a forecast based on new economic assumptions it is recommended to open a new (unprocessed) scenario by means of Scenario / New Scenario option from File menu of the program main menu. To compare the traffic forecast results of the current scenario with the results of the previous forecasts it is necessary to open the required scenario by means of Scenario / Open Scenario option of the File menu. If any of the existent scenarios of Your project had already contained these assumptions based on which the traffic forecast was performed then opening such a scenario You may see the “Has the scenario forecast been calculated?: YES” message on the top of Scenario Forecasting window.

Step 6 - Creating a New Scenario Network If you wish to investigate the effect of changing the network you will need to edit the network on the screen to create new links and nodes. You will first have to create a new scenario by selecting File\Scenario\New Scenario from the main menu and entering the name of the new scenario and the directory in which it is to be created. Having created the new scenario you need to add your new nodes and links. Creating a New Node

You will need in front of you the detailed information about the new node which you are about to create. You should also zoom in to display the node and it adjacent network in as large a magnification as possible. To create a new node select Edit\Current Network Scenario\Add


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New Node from the main menu. You must now be careful not to click the mouse inadvertently because the next left mouse click defines the node. Put the mouse on the location of the new node and left click. The New Node dialog box should appear. Enter the A Node Name, Code, select the Mode and press OK.

The new node will appear on the display as shown on the figure below (the node named New Node is circled).

Moving an Existing Node

You should also zoom in to display the node and it adjacent network in as large a magnification as possible. To move an existing node select Edit\Current Network Scenario\Edit Node from the main menu. You must now be careful not to click the mouse inadvertently because the next left mouse click, drag and drop defines the new position. Put the mouse on the node you wish to move press down the left mouse button and holding it down drag the node to its new location, releasing the left mouse button places the node at its new location. The node will appear at the new location with the link connections adjusted to the nodes new location. Creating a New Link

To create a new link identify the nodes at each end of the link. You will need in front of you the detailed information about each link as given by the Database Screen for that type of link (eg length, gradient, width etc). You should also zoom in to display the whole length of your new link in as large a magnification as possible so that the nodes on each end of the link will be


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displayed as large as possible. These nodes must already exist (if they don't then create the new nodes first - see above). Then select Edit\Current Network Scenario\Add New Link from the main menu. You must now be careful not to click the mouse inadvertently because in the next two left mouse clicks define the nodes at each end of the link. Put the mouse on the node at one end of the new link and left click. Then put the mouse on the node at the other end of the new link and left click. The New Link dialog box should appear, which lists codes, names and coordinates for the nodes of the link as shown on the figure below.

Then click OK button. After this, in accordance with node type (rail or road), a window will appear that enables the user to enter information on the created link for the network database. As in our example we create a road the displayed window (see below) allows to enter data on road.

Fill in the given form, then click Save Changes button on the top of the screen. The window will be closed and a new link will appear on the map as shown on the figure below.


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The new link will appear on the display in a different colour. Saving the New Scenario

To keep your changes you will need to save them with File\Scenario\Save Scenario or File\Scenario\Save Scenario As. In the latter case the program will display a dialog screen to save the scenario under a user-specified name. NOTE! If You want to enable the changes made in the transport network infrastructure while calculating traffic forecast for the current scenario, You must call Regenerate Network option from File menu. The equivalent of this option is saving the scenario with help of File / Scenario / Save Scenario option and then opening it with Scenario / Open Scenario option from File menu. This command is necessary because any changes made to the transport network must be entered into transport network data arrays, which the program uses. Only fulfilling this condition the program is able to consider all corrections of the transport network while performing traffic forecast . Viewing the year 1998 Traffic Volumes (based on the data submitted by local correspondents)

Select Traffic option from Service menu. A dialog screen shown below will appear.

This dialog screen is designed for loading and visualizing data on traffic volumes from the appropriate files. Find Observed1998 folder on Your MM.TRACE.FR Program Installation CD-ROM. The user is recommended to copy the given directory on the hard drive. You will need to use the following files: AADT-Visualisation-9899.xls and RAIL-VISUALISATION 98 TOTAL.xls. These files should be opened using the Traffic window shown above. To do it, click the first of the three �� buttons designed for viewing the file system of Your computer. Each of the buttons calls a standard file search dialog screen and designed for picking up the file that corresponds to one of the three descriptions: Rail, Road, Annual Average Daily Traffic. After clicking the �� button opposite Rail select RAIL-VISUALISATION 98 TOTAL.xls file. Clicking Open and returning to Traffic window select AADT-Visualisation-9899.xls file for Annual Average Daily Traffic. All thus selected files will appear in the proper boxes of the Traffic


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window. To visualize the traffic volumes for the year 1998 the user is not provided with the total road traffic tonnage file. In view of this, it is necessary to untick the Road box, and save the ticks for Rail and Annual Average Daily Traffic. After these procedures click Loading button, and the data will be loaded into the software and plotted � depending on the Your Plotting Options. With the correct Plotting Options you see the traffic levels plotted as bandwidths with the width of each band representing the level of flow in tonnes of produce per year. If you don't have bandwidths check the Plotting Options (described below). Plotting Options

Traffic levels plotted as bandwidths may have different meaning. Traffic data may be:

• Total � Total annual tonnage on rail (international and domestic) - and only international trade flows for road:

• Oil � Oil and oil product rail (only) traffic volumes, • Minus oil: Rail and Road traffic volumes of all type commodities except oil and oil

products,

• Total Transit � Traffic volumes (annual tonnage) through a given country for Rail and Road modes,

• Oil transit � Oil and oil product traffic volumes through a given country (Rail only)

• Transit minus oil - Rail traffic volumes of all type commodities except oil and oil products through a given country (rail and Road),

• AADT � Annual Average Daily Traffic. Represents the daily average annual number

vehicles (all types including cars, buses, trucks etc.).

The mentioned options are presented in the Show Assignment set

Note! Visualization of the described options is closely connected with rail and road transport network visualization options (in the top left set of the given screen). Thus, if You wish to visualize oil traffic results You definitely need to flag Rail option, and for AADT the road network should be visualized (Road option). While working with the forecast results for 2012 the user is granted the chance to visualize any option of the Show Assignment set. However, for viewing the year 1998 traffic only Total and AADT options of the Show Assignment set are visualized.


Module A


A 7 Specific traffic forecast for the other Modules

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies FINAL REPORT


Specific traffic forecast for the other modules

The forecasting model was tested under various macro-economic hypotheses and the reference scenario is the one with default values. The resulting traffic forecast was delivered upon request and used for Chardzew feasibility study (see A8) and other TACIS project especially in Caucasus. It must be noticed that existing data for the years 1998 and 1999 (belonging to the database) were also delivered upon any request, especially to consultants working for various projects in the region.


Module A


A 8 Feasibility Study of Chardzew/Turkmenabat Bridge

Brief Condensed and Review Report

Feasibility Study for the Turkmenabat Bridge

(Chardzew – former name)

Turkmenistan

Brief Condensed and

Review Report Synopsis

August 2001

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies FINAL REPORT Feasibility Study for the Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) Bridge


Table of Content

1. Feasibility Study for the Turkmenabat Bridge ................................................. 3

1.1 Introduction................................................................................................................3 1.2 Proposed Project .......................................................................................................3

1.2.1 Project background and objectives.................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 Proposed Alternatives....................................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 Project Costs...................................................................................................................... 6

1.3 Traffic Patterns ..........................................................................................................7 1.3.1 Review of past and recent traffic figures ........................................................................... 7 1.3.2 Traffic Forecasts .............................................................................................................. 10

1.4 Project Benefits .......................................................................................................14 1.5 Cost – Benefit analysis ............................................................................................15 1.6 Conclusions and Recommendations........................................................................16

List of Tables Table 1 : Summary of proposed alternatives........................................................................................... 6 Table 2 : Investment costs....................................................................................................................... 7 Table 3 : Freight railways traffic via Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) Bridge........................................ 8 Table 4 : freight railways traffic via Turkmenabat bridge in 1998 (tons) ................................................. 8 Table 5 : Road Traffic via the Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) Road Pontoon..................................... 9 Table 6 : Traffic Scenarios to predict traffic crossing the rail bridge within 10 year time ...................... 10 Table 7 : Traffic forecasts via Turkmenabat on rail bridge in 2005 (in millions tonnes) ........................ 11 Table 8 : New traffic forecast via Turkmenabat (Chardzew) Bridge for the year 2005 ......................... 12 Table 9 : Projected number of vehicles using the Road crossing by 2005 ........................................... 12 Table 10 : New road traffic prediction for the year 2005 ....................................................................... 13



Feasibility Study for the Turkmenabat Bridge

1.1 Introduction The present synthesis report lies within the frame of the “Traffic and Feasibility Studies” Project financed by the European Commission from Tacis funds on the TRACECA programme. It consists in a review of a previous “Feasibility study on the Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) Bridge” prepared in July 19971. The structure of this condensed review report is as follows: ! Proposed project (background, alternatives and project costs), ! Traffic:

# Review of the traffic flows (changes between 1995 and 2000), # Traffic growth (changes between 1995 and 2000), # Predicted Traffic (former projections and revised predictions for rail and road),

! Review of Project Benefits, ! Review of Cost – Benefits Analysis, ! Conclusions and Recommendations.

1.2 Proposed Project

1.2.1 Project background and objectives

Transport services across the Amur Darya river, between the city of Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) and Farab, is provided by a 1.8 km railway bridge2 and by a 300 metres long pontoon for road vehicles. The replacement of both river crossings by a new construction has been proposed as part of a larger project to improve International and transit flows as well as to promote local development. Both river crossings are indeed an important interface of local, national and international transport networks since important traffic flows converge on this crossing point: ! Purely local traffic: between the Turkmenabat and Farab (cities located on each side

of the river); ! Domestic traffic between Farab and Western Turkmenistan, and between

Turkmenabat and the Eastern region of Turkmenistan; ! International traffic of Turkmenistan: rail/road import and export

1 The final version of the feasibility study (part of the TRACECA study “Module C: Rail Infrastructure

Maintenance in Central Asia, was not carried out. 2 The only such crossing over the Amur Darya River in the Central Asian area



! Transit flows: Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian Sea; Central Asia to Iran and Middle East/Turkey; and accessorily Russia/China to Iran).

Besides the need to meet the future traffic over the river, the construction of a new bridge in Turkmenabat/Chardzew has been found necessary because of the poor condition of both pontoon and railway bridge: ! The rail bridge is suffering from a weakness of its structure caused by weak

connections (loose, rivets, rust…); elements which are extremely liable to fatigue cracking and serious problems of corrosion. Provided the bridge is refurbished, its service life could be extended by ten years (about the same period is necessary to design and construct the proposed new bridge).

! The road pontoon working almost at its capacity (estimated spare capacity is 20%) and therefore was not in a position to meet requirements of any future traffic. Furthermore, using the road pontoon is also extremely difficult (even unsafe) for heavy trucks3. River crossing alternatives4 are few.

The feasibility study conducted in 1996 recognised important risk factors due to competing projects that were under study in parallel: ! Turkmen’s Authorities projected to construct a new rail bridge over the Amur Darya

river between Kerki (120 km South Turkmenabat), on the left bank of the river, and Kerichi, located opposite of Kerki on the right bank The construction of the bridge is part of a larger project including a direct railway connection between Turkmenabat/Chardzew and Kerki. Railway connection between these two cities was only possible via Chardzew bridge (Turmenant bridge) and implied further transit through the Uzbek territory. Crossing the river at Kerki is made by ferry or by truck (through a road pontoon).

! Uzbek’s Authorities projected to built a new railway line connecting the city of Ushkuduk to Nukus in the North-West region, so that traffic between these two cities will be possible without going through Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) with further transit through the Turkmen territory (the only possible route at the moment).

! An agreement has been signed by the governments of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a rail corridor between Russian and Turkmenistan/Iran via Kazakhstan, known as the North-South Corridor. The operation of this rail corridor requires the construction of “missing links”, or new rail connections: Yaralievo – Turkmenbashi (443 km) and Garandshyk – Kysyl Etrek (222 km) and Gorgan Bandar Torkaman.

1.2.2 Proposed Alternatives

The main socio-economic considerations behind the three proposed alternatives scenarios are as follows:

3 The lack of load distributor between two adjacent pontoons makes the trucks to move either on

ascending or descending stairs as its centre of gravity moves.

4 There is no fixed crossing over the river within Turkmenistan, but other road pontoon or ferry

alternatives: Kerki – Kerkichi pontoon (for small lorries); Karabekhaul – Burdalik ferry; Petevert – Mekan ferry; Eltchik – Seidi ferry and Lebap ferry.



! “Do- nothing”(S0): the bridge is not expected to last much longer than 10 years. A consequence of not renewing the bridge will be that local rail traffic will no longer be possible to commute by rail between Turmenabat (former Chardzew) and Farap on the opposite bank. As the road pontoon is already almost at capacity, this situation will create a serious hardship to the population of the area (930 000 inhabitants). A significant part of railways domestic and international traffic could divert via Kerki-Kerichi river crossing (120 km south of Turmanabat), but would be forced to make a detour (at least 160 km).

! “Road-only Bridge” (S1): as the pontoon is at capacity and road traffic rapidly increasing, investing in a road-only bridge is conceivable. However, as the rail bridge will cease to operate in ten years, it can be expected that a purely road-oriented crossing at Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) could have the effect of diverting rail traffic to roads, creating a “road monopoly” (risk of tariffs increases in response to the removal of competition). On the other hand, long distance traffic transferred from rail to road will be economically more expensive5.

! “Combined Road-rail Bridge”(S2) redresses the balance between road and rail in that there will be no additional charges to be borne by the community and balance the modal competition. Traffic will not be compulsory diverted to alternative routes. Three construction options were considered:

− Option N° 1: crossing the River 15 km East of Turkmenabat (former Chardzew);

− Option N° 2: crossing the river 200 metres west of the existing railways and,

− Option N° 3: shorter than N1 but still 8 km East of Chardzew. As a final recommendation, the study strongly recommended that the engineering option “combined road and rail bridge on the site of the existing pontoon crossing” be adopted and implemented as soon as possible. Refurbishing the rail bridge in the short term (1998-2000) was integrated as an additional option. The recommended construction option is to use the area of the pontoon bridge that is only about 200 to 300 metres downwards of the existing railway bridge so that the existing land railways network needs no important changes (only about 4 km of new railway line have to be constructed). The refurbishing of the existing rail bridge (1998-2000) will extend the life of the bridge by a further 10 years (i.e. up to the year 2010 at the latest). By this time, the new combined road-rail bridge would open. The table in the following page summarises the different proposed alternatives.

5 A long-distance rail transport is typically between three to four times less expensive in terms of tonne-km (0.02 USD/net tonne-km instead of 0.08 USD/tonne-km for a typical long-distance articulated truck).



Table 1: Summary of proposed alternatives

“Do- nothing”

S0

“Road-only Bridge”

S1

“Combined road-rail

bridge” S2

New Bridge

Not built

Built for road traffic only

Built for both road and rail

traffic

Pontoon Bridge

Continues in operation; capacity reached in 1999

Capacity reached in 1999; used to 2005, then replaced by bridge

As S1

Existing Rail Bridge

Continues in use to 2005, then becomes unsafe

As S0 As S1

Road Traffic Volume

Grows 8% p.a. to 1999 then no further increase

As SO, grows by 8% p.a. to 1999 then no further increase to 2005 (constrained by the capacity of the bridge) From 2006 takes 50% of rail volume and then grows at 5% p.a. (a new road bridge will be capable of doing so)

Grows 8% p.a. to 1999 then no further increase to 2005; From 2006 grows at 5% p.a.

Road Traffic and Toll/Tariff

Traffic beyond 2006 will increase at the overall average rate of 5% per annum (recognising the alternative competitive route via Kerki). From 2006, new high tariffs for foreign vehicles; no further toll increase

As S1

Rail Traffic Volume

Freight traffic grows to 2005 (from 4.3 million tons to 7.43 million tons); From 2006 no further rail traffic

As S0 After the end of 2005, the rail bridge will cease to be useable (50% of the traffic volume will transfer to road).

Freight traffic grows by 2 trains/day by 2005, and then all traffic grows by 5% p.a.

From 2006, when the new bridge will be ready: 5% per annum for all traffic thereafter. The alternative option of operation via Kerki is already recognised in these forecasts.

Rail Traffic Toll/Tariff

Nominal Toll’ applied; no further increase

As S0

As S0

1.2.3 Project Costs

The estimated capital outlay for the construction of the recommended new “combined road and rail bridge on the site of the existing pontoon crossing” amount to USD 100 million



over the next fifteen years, including the recommended refurbishment of the existing bridge and the construction of its replacement. The proposed investment cost is summarised in the following table:

Table 2: Investment costs

Infrastructure Requirements

Dimensions

Cost in USD

Railways access

2.4 km

1 200 000

Road access ways

2.0 km

3 200 000

Combined Rail + Road Bridge:

Spans 88 + 6x2 x 132 + 88 =

1769 m (23610 tons of materials)

13 Piers 2 Abutments

75 800 000

9 400 000 700 000

Rail installation on the bridge

2.0 km 400 000

Total Investment

90 700 000

The refurbishment of the existing rail bridge (optional) represents an investment of 8.07 million dollars in the short-term. As for operating costs, it has been considered that to maintain the bridge in good condition the annual charge for maintenance amount 1.5 % of the investment cost.

1.3 Traffic Patterns

1.3.1 Review of past and recent traffic figures

The reference study was completed in July 1997. Traffic figures for the base year were those of 1995. To analyse recent changes, these figures are here compared here with the most recent available traffic data (year 1998) elaborated within the “Traffic and Feasibility studies” Project (TNREG 9803). The review of will examine the changes observed for the following type of flows: ! Railways traffic on the bridge ! Road traffic on the pontoon.

1.3.1.1. Railways Traffic on the existing bridge

The following table summarise the changes in freight traffic flows between 1995 and 1998



Table 3: Freight railways traffic via Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) Bridge

Type of traffic flows (both directions) Volume in 1995 (1)

(Thousands tons) Volume in 1998 (3)

(Thousands tons)

International traffic and Transit:

Import / Export (Turkmenistan) 504(4)

International Transit 2 063 (2)

1 140

National traffic (both directions)

From/to Turkmenistan via Turkmenabat transit Uzbekistan 2 040 1 930

From/to Uzbekistan via Turkmenabat transit Turkmenistan 802 970

Total

4 905

4 544

(1) Source: Feasibility Study for the Chardzew Bridge (July 1997).

(2) The figure includes a volume of 1,770 thousand tonnes of Turkmen Import/Export representing, according to the study, 40% of the total rail freight volume of Turkmenistan in 1995. This percentage, extremely high, has to be considered carefully since the estimation is not based on the number of wagons (data were not available) or statistical information sources but on the basis of the structure by commodity. It probably includes export of oil representing 85% of rail freight in 1995.

(3) Source: Traffic and Feasibility Study: The Data Base conceived within the current study, is based on data provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Information and checked by the Consultant.

(4) According to available data from the National Institute of Statistics and Information, Import/export Turkmen flows by rail take four available routes: Turkmenbashi (ferry); Kuska, Seraks and Turkmenabat (former Chardzew). The railways mode via Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) bridge represents 24% of the total international rail freight traffic in 1998 (different to the figure of 40% in 1995 provided in the former study). The total freight volume of Turkmenistan in 1999 equates 3.857 864 tons. The share of railways is 49.7% representing 1 920 104 tons. Road transport is 18%, while pipelines and air transport covers the rest.

According to these figures, rail traffic on the Turkmenabat bridge has decreased by an average of 6% per year since 1995. As shown in the following table, out of 4.5 millions tons that crossed the bridge in 1998, a total of 3.7 represented goods others than oil.

Table 4: freight railways traffic via Turkmenabat bridge in 1998 (tons)

From To Total

Chardzew Farab 1 416 615

Farab Chardzew 3 127 044

Total 4 543 659



As a conclusion, traffic through the bridge has been serving above all to domestic needs of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (71% of the total rail freight traffic crossing the bridge in 1998). However, as both countries have already implemented competing projects that avoid crossing the river at this location, the role of the rail bridge for domestic need is decreasing. On the other hand, in-depth traffic analysis shows that international transit, even if it still has the smallest share (1.14 millions tons or 25% of the total), has been increasing. As for railways Passenger Traffic, in 1996, the 8 passenger trains crossing the bridge daily breakdown as follows:

− Long distance traffic from to western and eastern region of Uzbekistan: 17 trains per week in 1995.

− Long distance traffic from Turkmenabat and the eastern region of Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan: 2 trains per week.

− Local traffic between Farab and Turkmenabat and vice-versa: 6 trains. The local traffic by rail is an important element of the mobility for people because the low car ownership (50 car/1000 inhabitants in 1995), and the lack of bus services. Local rail passenger starts in Farab and generally travels to Turkmenabat fulfilling the classic role of commuting to work and school, shopping and others purposes. 1.3.1.2. Road Traffic on the existing pontoon

Traffic data on the road pontoon was collected in 1995 through counting and interview surveys. Within the current study, a first seven days manual count was carried out to evaluate recent changes in traffic volumes. As resulting figures were found too low, a second survey was conducted a month later. The following table summarises traffic changes on the pontoon over the last five years.

Table 5: Road Traffic via the Turkmenabat (former Chardzew) Road Pontoon

Traffic volumes by vehicle type

Traffic volumes 1995 (ADT in both directions) (1)

Traffic volumes 2000: (ADT in both directions

September 2000) (2)

Traffic volumes 2000 (ADT in both directions,

November 2000) (3)

Passenger car

Buses

Others vehicles

1 339 771 669

Truck 2 axles 265

Truck 3 axles 118 50 67

Truck > 3 axles 300 80 99

Total Vehicles per day

2 022

901

1 004

(1) Source: Feasibility Study for the Chardzew Bridge, July 1997.

(2) Source: Traffic and Feasibility Study (seven days manual count survey carried out and data prepared for the Consultant by the National Institute for Statistics and information.

(3) Figures from the survey conducted in September were confirmed by an additional three days survey carried out in November 2000 and prepared for the Consultant by the National Institute for Statistics and information.



As shown in the table, according to former 1995 counts, road traffic on the bridge amounted to 2,022 vehicles per day (v.p.d) in both directions. Recent counts (September and October 2000), show that road traffic decreased by nearly 50% since 1995 (-13% per year in average during 1995-2001). The recent survey shows, in general, that local traffic on the pontoon bridge represents 90% of the total traffic. The decline is particularly strong for heavy vehicles. Heavy vehicles represent 16% of the total traffic (or 166 vehicles per day in November 2000). Within this vehicle category, the share of foreign trucks is 42% (70 trucks pr day).

1.3.2 Traffic Forecasts

The Consultant in charge of the previous study carried out its own traffic forecast for road and rail traffic crossing the Chardzew bridge. The basis for forecasts carried out in 1995 were:

! Basic import/export freight data collected during the study and modal split trend per transport route (North-South via Seraks-Iran and East-West via the TransCaspian corridor).

! Projected GDP growth rates for Central Asian Countries provided by the World Bank. (3.5% per year for the horizon of forecast: 2005, with some variations of this rate according to the main commodities considered6).

As mentioned, the context within which traffic forecast were carried out in 1996 was recognised to be a particular difficult exercise due to the uncertainty and unstable development in Central Asia and also because of additional risk factors linked with several project for constructing competing railways lines and river crossings. It also worth noting that specific traffic forecasts data from the “Regional Traffic Forecasting model” were not available. 1.3.2.1. Railways Traffic Forecasts

Within the former study, various scenarios were developed to predict the level of traffic likely to cross the river through the rail bridge within a period of 10 years (1995 – 2005). Assumptions for different basic scenarios were as follows:

Table 6: Traffic Scenarios to predict traffic crossing the rail bridge within 10-year time

Assumptions

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Establishing a North-South corridor (Completion of the missing link)

Yes

Yes

No

Completion of the railways link Turkmenabat (former Chardzew)-Kerki

Yes

Yes

Yes

Completion of the new bridge Kerki – Kerichi Yes

No

No

Completion of the railways link Ushkuduk to

6 These rates are given in a Table 2-25, in page C-45 of the former study (report made available at

www.Traceca.org/traceca_library



Assumptions

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Nukus. Yes Yes Yes

The following table summarises traffic forecast for all scenarios.

Table 7: Traffic forecasts via Turkmenabat on rail bridge in 2005 (in millions tonnes)

Traffic Flows

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Import / Export (Turkmenistan) 2.79 2.79 2.79

North- South Corridor 1.72 1.86 2.71

TransCaspian Corridor 2.32 1.86 2.32

From/to Uzbekistan via Turkmenabat (former Chardzew)

- 3.00 3.00

From/to Turkmenistan (via Turkmenabat (former Chardzew))

0.6 - 0.8 0.6 - 0.8 0.6 - 0.8

Total 7.43 – 7.63 10.57–10.77

11.42–11.62

In terms of trains/year the current traffic of 4 trains/day (4.9 million tons/year in 1996), was expected to grow up to 2005 as follows: ! Scenario A: 16 trains/day in Scenario A, (low estimate is 7.43 million tonnes by

2005), equivalent to an average annual average growth rate of 4.4% ! Scenario B, rail traffic was estimated about 23 trains/day (10.57 millions tons by

2005 is the low estimate) equivalent to an average annual average growth rate of 8 % ! Scenario C assumptions give a traffic figure of 25 trains/day (11.42 millions tons by

the year 2005) equivalent to an average annual average growth rate of 8.9% No change in levels of passenger train operation is considered (6 local trains and 2 long-distance/day in 1996) In order to compare assumptions made in 1995 with the current situation, specific investigations were carried out in March 2001. Results are as follows: ! The projected railway line between Chardzew (Turkmenabat) and Kerki (Atamurat -

new name) has been finalized. ! The projected bridge connecting Kerki (Atamurat) and Kerichi is not achieved yet.

Only the railway line connecting the Kerki (Atamurat) railways station to the future bridge has been built. On the other side of the river, the construction of railways access to the bridge from Kerichi has also started. As for the bridge itself, it will be built as combined bridge (road and railway as initially planned) On-going engineering design is planned to end by the middle of 2002. Then, construction works should start. The whole project (design and construction) would be carried within 64 months. Operations should start by the beginning of the year 2006.

! The projected railway line between Ushkuduk and Nukus (Uzbekistan) has been completed in December 2000. Freight operations are going to start in the middle of summer 2001 and passenger traffic next autumn 2001.



! The North-South Corridor has not been constructed and still remains at the concept level.

Consequently, the Scenario C, the most optimistic for Chardzew bridge in terms of traffic, has In the light of recent changes on the railways and bridge infrastructure and on new traffic data prepared within the “Traffic and Feasibility Studies” (Project specifically designed to provide forecast for feasibility studies) new traffic predictions have been carried out. Results (under assumptions of scenario C) are presented in a table here below.

Table 8: New traffic forecast via Turkmenabat (Chardzew) Bridge for the year 2005

From To Total tons

Chardzew Farab 1 785 060

Farab Chardzew 3 940 352

Total 5 725 412

As a conclusion, rail traffic on the bridge is expected to grow from 4.5 million tons/year in 1998 to 5.7 millions tons by 2005, equivalent to an average annual average growth rate of 3.6%7. These results suggest that future level of traffic flows has been over-estimated. The differences between former and new forecast are significant. Compared with the pessimistic scenario (Scenario A: assuming that even the North-South corridor is completed) the predicted traffic is 7.4 millions tons (30% higher than the new forecast). Differences with the optimistic Scenario (Scenario C), the difference is near the double (11.4 millions tons instead of 5.7 currently predicted). 1.3.2.2. Road Traffic Forecasts

Road traffic using the road crossing was expected to grow as follows: ! Up to 1999, traffic will grow by 8 %. From 1999 up to 2005, then no further increase

will be possible (pontoon will be at full capacity: 2600 veh/day). Up to 2005, assumptions are similar for all scenarios. The following table summarises the expected situation:

Table 9: Projected number of vehicles using the Road crossing by 2005

Traffic volumes by vehicle type

Traffic volumes 1995 (ADT in both directions)


Freight Traffic 839 1 684

7 New forecasts take account of recent development where traffic via the Turkmenbat bridge

(Chardzew) has been decreasing by 6% in average per year during 1995 – 1998 as shown in previous tables 3.



Passenger long distance traffic:

377 851

Passenger local traffic 806 1 140


2 022

3 675

! From 2005, if a “road-only bridge” is built and start operations in 2005, traffic will

increase by 50% in 1996 as a consequence of rail traffic diverted from the old rail bridge that ceases to operate (the remaining 50% of rail traffic being redirected via Kerki, in 1996). From 2006, it would continue to grow at an average rate of 5% per year.

! If the recommended “combined road-rail bridge” is built and start operations in 2005, then road traffic will grow at an average rate of 5% per year from 2005.

Taking into account results from surveys conducted in 2001, new prediction can be done. These new projections take account of road traffic decrease via Turkmenabat pontoon for the period 1995 – 2000 (-13 % in average per year) and revised socio-economic parameters. Results from the analysis show that in spite of recent fall, road traffic via Turkmenabat is expected to experience a rapid recovery within the next five years. Optimistic growth is mainly due to local transport development (passenger and buses between Farab and Turmenabat will increase by 20% per year) and international trucks (20 % per year). Domestic traffic is expected to increase at a lower path (15%). The following table summarises the results as follows:

Table 10 : New road traffic prediction for the year 2005

Traffic volumes by vehicle type Traffic volumes 2000 (ADT in both directions,

November 2000)


Passenger car

Buses

Others vehicles

669 1 666

Truck 2 axles

Truck 3 axles 67 153

Truck > 3 axles 99 247


1 004

2 066

Given that differences between former and new prediction are significant, further traffic counts and O-D surveys are strongly recommended. It is indeed important to determine with higher level of accuracy the impact on traffic crossing the river at Turmenabat resulting from competition created by new constructions: the railway line Ushkuduk – Nukus, and Chardzhew –Kerki as well as the on-going Kerki-Kerichi bridge project.



1.4 Project Benefits Calculations of benefits were based on estimates of rail and road revenues for the future operator of the new bridge. This allowed a financial evaluation of proposed alternatives. Estimates of potential rail revenues from the new construction were found very limited or non-existent: the quality of service offered by rail between the existing bridge and a new bridge can be expected to remain basically the same (the new bridge has very few advantages to the rail operator. Today, rail operation does not allocate any specific portion of either its revenue or its costs to the 1.8 km long bridge). If a charging mechanism is to be envisaged after all, any increase beyond USD 1.50 per tonne should be justified for rail traffic: otherwise, traffic could divert via Kerki (additional cost due to the detour via Kerki has been estimated at USD 1.36/tonne). Estimates of potential road traffic revenues from the new construction were based on tariffs for crossing the existing pontoon bridge. These tariffs are different for local and foreign vehicles. For local passenger vehicles, tariffs are very low: 0.05 USD/veh for cars, 0.45 to 1.60 for buses. For foreign passenger cars, tariff is 4.5 USD and 25 USD respectively. Tariffs for local trucks vary according to the weight (0.015 USD/ 50 kg). For foreign vehicles tariffs are: ! Trucks 3.5 tons: 10-12 USD ! Trucks 10 to 20 tons (loaded): 25 USD ! Trucks 10 to 20 tons (unloaded): 20 USD ! Trucks > 20 tons: 25 – 30 USD

The level of toll to be levied on the bridge was the essential element for the viability of the new construction. The potential for increasing these levels was analysed as follows. ! Increasing domestic tariffs could have significant social impact and must be seen only

as medium-term objective. The low level of toll levied on local users reflects the poor purchasing power of people of the region.

! As for foreign car and trucks (which virtually finance the present pontoon), potential for increase the toll level depends on advantages that users could get from the new bridge. These advantages have been calculated in terms of time saved. In the absence of other data, the Consultant calculates the time benefit as follows:

− Truck: Assuming a 10-hour driving day, time saved equates USD 140.00 per hour

− Car (foreign user): Average salary is about USD 2,000.00 per month = USD 12.50/hour

Taking into account the relatively low price elasticity of the demand, the Consultant’s view was that the tariffs for the new bridge should be set at approximately USD 8.50 for private cars and USD 100.00 for trucks. For foreign trucks, the new tariff is four times the current price. The calculation, equating USD 3.50/tonne for trucks, is based on payload of 28 tonnes/truck. An analysis of operating conditions for long-distance trucks in the region shows that fleet productivity has been over-estimated.



Productivity factors for articulated long distance truck in the region are rather closer to: ! Average mileage loaded: 0.8 (or average empty running 20%), ! Average load Factor (Average load / maximum vehicle capacity): 0.7

The maximum capacity for a 40 tons articulated truck (total vehicle weight) is 25 tons. Consequently, the average payload is rather closer to 14 tons (0.8 x 0.7 x 25 tons = 14 tons). Different TRACECA studies on vehicle operating costs has shown that a typical articulated truck cost is between 0.9 – 1.2 US/kilometre, which equates 0.08 US/net ton-km. Typical average revenue is 0.10 US/net ton-km (profit margin of 20%). On the other hand, a typical long-distance trip usually takes weeks. Saving few hours thanks to a new construction does not seems enough to justify a payment four times higher than current tariff. In these conditions, further investigations are necessary to estimate the level of toll that could realistically be levied on the river crossing. Overestimation road revenues (toll), joint to overestimation of future traffic level on the river crossing have a poor impact on the financial evaluation.

1.5 Cost – Benefit analysis Cost and benefits have been measured for each year of the useful life of the project (30 year and a 40 year payback period have been considered) and compared to determine whether the project is justified from the financial point of view. To bring the project’s stream of future cost and benefits to a common denominator, rates of discount of 5%, 7.5 and 9 % were applied. Results of these analyses can be summarised as follows: ! Combined road and rail bridge: the internal rate of return (IRR) and net present values

has been calculated on the forecasts development in road traffic and the recommended investment option. The calculation takes in consideration the total investment of 100 US millions spread over the period 2005 – 2012. The calculation assumes that toll revenue from road traffic will be used to finance the combined bridge operations (principle of cross subsidy8). Results for both variants shows that expected benefits would not be sufficient to make the bridge a commercially viable proposition. Best IRR obtained is around 7%.

! Separating the road portion of the bridge only from the combined bridge has also been evaluated. In case of total revenues are credited to the road bridge operations and the railway portion is isolated, the results is that IRRs between 13.9 and 16.5 % are obtained which suggest that the road bridge operations are viable. However, as earlier mentioned, this scenario leads to “road monopoly” (risk of tariffs increases in response to the removal of competition) and transferring long distance traffic from rail to road is not viable from the economic point of view.

In the light of revised traffic forecast and new basis for calculating revenues, IRR recalculation gives negative results and the does not appear to be financially viable: 8 Charging rail users the same level as the road users, are very limited (or non-existent). However, If

covering operating cost by rail users is accepted, IRR of 30% are obtained. If the solution does not prove to be viable, these costs must be covered from other sources (the railways, the government in the form of subsidies for the railways). The question of funding is also to be addressed. It was assumed that outside financing is required and this most likely provided by an international institution. Convincing possible lending institutions of the railway’s capacity to manage repayments of any loan provided requires in all cases a more transparent presentation of the financial situation than at present.



expected rail traffic on the bridge by the year 2005 is 5.7 million tons (instead of 11.5 millions estimated for Scenario C). By 2005, road traffic is expected to reach 2066 veh/day (instead of 3 600). Expected revenues from road truck crossing the new bridge are lower since future traffic is lower and toll level largely under proposed 100 US/truck.

1.6 Conclusions and Recommendations The overall problem has been addressed within the former study: a new bridge at this crossing is indispensable not only from the local socio-economic aspect but also because this is a vital link between Central Asia and the West as well as traffic on route to and from Iran and point beyond. Doing nothing is hardly conceivable. However, the objective of the proposed project requires deeper examination. The role of the bridge is mainly to serve local and domestic needs of Turkmenistan. The country however has preferred to finance a similar project in another location, and Turmenabat bridge does not seem to be a national priority for the moment. Uzbekistan, another large user of this river crossing decided to finance a project, which avoid passing through Turmenabat. The proposed bridge in Turmenabat does not seem to have been seen with high priority. As for international transit, volumes are certainly increasing but still remain at very low level. The contribution that can be reasonable expected from foreign trucks should be re-estimated and a level of toll to be applied determined with reasonable accuracy. Consequently, refining the purpose of the project is a major issue. The redefinition should clearly identify who is interested in changing the current situation and how all stakeholders can be involved in the realisation of the project. This point is crucial, as International Financing Institutions will closely examine the answer given to that question and to possible funding schemes in line with organisational strategies. As a final conclusion, the Consultant who carried out this condensed review recommends to re-examine the project as follows: ! Redefinition of the project objectives, including identification of interested parties as

well as definition of possible funding schemes and organisational strategies for further implementation.

! In-depth investigation to measure the impact on traffic over the river crossing, which has been created by competing infrastructures. Fixing traffic issues is seen as the main basis for any further step. To this end, it is recommended to carry out a detailed traffic study including manual counts, O/D surveys as well as traffic analysis and forecasts.

! The benefits of the project should be re-examined, including all economic advantages and not only time saved (reduction of vehicle operating cost were not taken into account).

! Project costs as well as the technical description have been carefully estimated and represent a useful material for any further attempt to analyse the situation of river crossing at Turmenanbat. However, scenarios and construction option should further explored, including possibilities such as building a “road bridge only” and implementing major repair of the rail bridge as part of a same project scenario.

! Comparison of cost and benefits for the proposed bridge are to be carried though application of discounting factors ensuring they are acceptable for future financing institutions involved (the best return has been calculated with a discount factor of 5% which seems low).


Module A


A 9 Communications Brochures Conferences

TRACECA Programme Traffic and Feasibility Studies: TNREG 9803 MODULE A TRAFFIC FORECASTING MODEL PRESENTATION (WITH POWER POINT)

AUGUST 2001

Tacis-Traceca: Traffic Forecasting Model

Presentation

Objectives

• Understand the need for new infrastructure • Better transportation system

• Co-operation in achieving common goals • Agreed design and functionality• Avoid duplication of effort• Agreement of the facts and data• Promote discussion on the issues

• Support infrastructure investment:• Lending agencies EC, EBRD, World bank

• Support member economies • Ensure increasing wealth and prosperity• By providing better transport

… get financial backing for new infrastructure

To help . . .

Synopsis• Eleven countries:

• Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia

• Database: • 1998 – 1999 completed, 2000 underway

• Traffic Forecasts:• for reference year 2012

• Forecasting model as a Planning Instrument• Model specified and calibrated for 1998 and 2012• software tool components:

» Transport Network» ForecastingModel and Results Visualisation» DataViewer

• Web site• Possible geographical extension and model development

• Bulgaria, Turkey, Romania

BCEOM

TACIS - - TRACECA - -Traffic Database and Forecasting

Visualisation of Model Results

2012 Traffic on Rail

BCEOM

TACIS - - - TRACECA - -Traffic Database and Forecasting

Database Description:

Contents

BCEOM


Database Description:

Consultation

BCEOM


Networks:How are they represented?:

• Rail, road, ports and ferry Links

• Customs and borders Links

Links can be open or closed

A generalised cost is:calculated from the physical characteristics of the links and used to calculate the shortest path which is the path with the smallest generalised cost

BCEOM


Principle of Shortest Paths

BCEOM


Output: a forecast scenario set of origin-destination matrices both International and Domestic Trade Flows:

• the tonnage which is taken from its origin to its destination

• every origin to every destination is represented in the matrices by:

• origin, destination, plus tonnage of:

• oil (rail only -after pipe exclusion),

• all other commodities grouped together: road and rail

Forecasting DemandInput:

• GDP, population growth

• Surplus/ deficit by commodity group

BCEOM


BUILDING UPTRAFFIC FORECAST

on NETWORK

------------------------ ------------------- ROAD-LINK

Countries TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL

Armenia Domestic Domestic Local Traffic *Azerbaijan Inter-Oblast Inter-Oblast AADT perGeorgia LinkKazakhstanKyrghyztan Domestic Tadjikistan Inter-oblastTurkmenistan AADTUzbekistan

ArmeniaAzerbaijanGeorgia International International InternationalKazakhstan Freight/VehicleKyrghyztanMoldovaTadjikistanTurkmenistanUkraineUzbekistan

All commodities OIL AADTMinus oil (Veh/day)

* w hen traff ic counts available per link(Tonnes/year)

RAIL-LINK

TRANSITTRANSIT TRANSIT

+

BCEOM

TACIS - - - TRACECA - -Traffic Database and ForecastingMETHODOLOGY FOR TRAFFIC FORECASTING

Cleaning of TotalFreight Flows RoadInternational Rail

1998 * Within TRACECA* Import in Area* Export from Area

Build Matrix Total Calibrate* Within TRACECA Road Modal * Within TRACECA Modal* Import in Area Rail Split * Import in Area Split* Export from Area * Export from Area

* Within TRACECA oil Assign on Aggregate Total * Import in Area non Network

25 Commodities Road Oil All Minus oil * Export from Area oil Shortest Pathinto groups Rail

oil Assign on Surplus Specific inter oblast Minus NetworkDeficit by commodities oil Shortest Path

95 1998 99groups

Macroeconomic Enter Indicators

2012

Surplus/DeficitEnter 2012

Groups

Growth Factor

Assign on Network

Shortest Path

Aggregate Commodities

Build Matrix 2012

Matrix Road

Matrix Rail

BCEOM


Output:

• The tonnage flowing on each link in the network: all commodities and separately for oil

Assigning the Demand to the Network• Take the forecast demand: the forecast scenario set of origin-destination matrices

• Build the shortest paths: • between all origins and destinations which are represented in the matrices

• Assign: split the tonnage of each origin-destination in the matrices along the shortest paths

• Link flows: accumulate the tonnage on each link as it goes along the paths

BCEOM


How do we forecast traffic flows on transport infrastructure?

• Take the base network for the future reference year (2012)

• Add new / modify infrastructure: • rail/road links in the network with its physical characteristics into the database

•Take the forecast demand: •input the basic data for the transport demand and get the forecast scenario set of matrices

• Assign the forecast demand to the scenario network

• Gives: the tonnage and vehicles which flow on each infrastructure link

BCEOM


Compare the base . . .

BCEOM


Back to the results: . . .the 2012 forecast for:

• rail, road, ship and ferry for oil and all other commodities (in tonnage)

• road vehicles as Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

BCEOM

TACIS- - TRACECA - -Traffic Database and Forecasting

. . . and it is downloadable from the web

http://www.traceca.org/traffic


Module A


A 10 Overview of links to Europe and TRACECA neighbouring countries

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies-Module A FINAL REPORT


Overview of links to Europe General The illustration on maps of the main routes between Europe and TRACECA region (mainly Caucasus and Central Asia) is issued from:

♦ the internal traffic forecast pattern resulting from an assignment with the liaisons between Europe only and TRACECA;

♦ the O-D surveys carried out during the project: in Kazakhstan, in Georgia and on the ferry-boats of the Caspian Sea (Baku-Turkmenbashi).

As it is already well known there are: (1) a Northern route and (2) a Southern route passing -or not- through Caucasus. In Europe, the area delimiting the potential choice between the Northern and the Southern routes would be along a theoretical line running through Slovakia, Czech Republic and ending largely in Germany. South of this delimitation area, all routes from Europe to Central Asia converge to Turkey and Istanbul, including the maritime links (with or without transshipment in Istanbul). As a matter of fact the European ports on the west side of the Black Sea (in Romania-Bulgaria) are not very much used as gateways to Caucasus. On the land side the routes continue through Turkey entering into Caucasus through South-Georgia (Sarpi and Vale) or if they continue to further Eastern destinations (like Uzbekistan) the route can cross Iran thus avoiding the Caspian Sea. On the maritime side, the entering points to Caucasus and Central Asia are the Georgian ports of Poti (mainly) and Batumi. North of this delimitation area, the routes from Europe to Caucasus and Turkmenistan have two possible itineraries: the first one using the ferry-boats between Illichev'sk and Poti, and the second one through Russia and entering into Caucasus either through North-Georgia or through Azerbaijan (Yalama and Samur). In Central Asia, there exists the same delimitation pattern having its origin somewhere in Uzbekistan. From/to South-Uzbekistan (Bucharat) some traffic to/from Europe using the Southern route via the Caspian Sea and Caucasus can be identified. However, from/to North-Uzbekistan (Tashkent) and South-Kazakhstan (Shymkent) the traffic uses preferably the Northern route via Russia. In the future, the new railway lines already built or to be built in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, together with the newly rehabilitated rail ferry terminal in Aktau, will modify the traffic pattern in Central Asia. The Northern route to Europe will be privileged from Uzbekistan and other countries Eastwards, while the Southern route will have a competitive itinerary through Aktau and the ferry-boats Aktau-Baku that by-passes Turkmenistan and Turkmenbashi. Practical Illustration From the database, all freight exchanges between Europe and Caucasus/Central-Asia have been extracted and then aggregated in such a way that the above routes: Northern route via Russia, Southern route via Caucasus and areas with competition between both routes, can be easily identified. The geographic aggregation is as follows:

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies-Module A___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________FINAL REPORT

A

P B T

Is

Area of Alternative Route Choice

TURKEY

LIAISONS EUROPE - CAUCASUS / TURKMENISTAN VIA TRACECA

KAZAKHSTAN

UA

CAUCASUSTURKMENISTAN

IlUZBEKISTAN

GERMCZ

SLOV

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

August 2001 A.10 4

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies-Module A________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________FINAL REPORT

P B T

Is


TURKEY

LIAISONS: EUROPE - UZBEKISTAN / KAZAKHSTAN VIA TRACECA

UA

Il

KAZAKHSTAN

CAUCASUS

GERMCZ

SLOV

A

UZBEKISTAN

BCEOM______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

August 2001 A.10 5

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies-Module A______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________FINAL REPORT

P B T

Is


POTENTIAL LIAISONS: EUROPE - UZBEKISTAN / KAZAKHSTAN VIA TRACECA

KAZAKHSTAN

UA

CAUCASUSTURKMENISTAN

TURKEY

GERMCZ

SLOV

A

UZBEKISTANIl

BCEOM_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

August 2001 A.10 6

EUROPEAN TRAFFIC BY RAIL WITH TRACECA COUNTRIES

(2012 - TOTAL FREIGHT - OIL EXCLUDED)

Scale - 1.860.000 tonnes

EUROPEAN TRAFFIC BY ROAD WITH TRACECA COUNTRIES

(2012 - TOTAL FREIGHT)

Scale - 650.000 tonnes



1. Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia 2. Central Asia: Turkmenistan 3. Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan 4. Europe: Poland 5. Europe: Scandinavia and Baltic States 6. Europe: Czech-Slovak Republics and Hungary 7. Europe: Black-Sea (Romania-Bulgaria) and Balkan States 8. Europe: EU and other European countries All other countries have been eliminated (Ukraine, Moldova, Turkey, Russia, China, Middle-East, etc.) in order to get the traffic with Western Europe only.

Based upon the route-theory developed above, it comes out for 1998 and 1999 freight exchanges the following results:

1998 & 1999 Freight traffic between Europe and Caucasus/Central Asia Countries (by routes/itineraries)

(tonne) 1998 1999

Commodity OIL(1) All Commodities minus OIL OIL(2) All Commodities

minus OIL Northern Route through Russia 3,031,408 950,415 5,342,345 1,068,390

North-South Competitive Routes 4,627,351 3,677,280 5,273,587 3,098,308

Southern Route through Caucasus 917,300 1,205,293 2,144,390 1,032,369

(1) land transport only: rail (2) land transport pus pipes

The details for every commodity by year, by O-D and by route are given in the Annex 5.10 tables1 Comments The freight tonnage, between Europe only and Caucasus/Central-Asia, using the captive routes either through the North (Russia) or on the South through Caucasus are of the same magnitude. But the potential freight having the opportunity of route choice (North or South) is three times higher (all commodities excluding oil). It is clear that the freight transportation conditions in Caucasus can make the difference, that is to say: reasonable tariffs in Poti, Georgian railways in very good operating conditions, similarly for roads in Caucasus, etc. Before willing to attract the freight traffic through Caucasus, between China, Siberia, Far-East, etc. and Europe, Turkey and other western countries, there is a potentiality to/from the TRACECA countries only that should be first implemented through appropriate transport measures. A similar exercise can be done for the year 2012 by using the traffic forecasting model. It is the transport planner duty to assess the conditions through which the potential freight tonnage under the competitive North/South routes can be minimised and the tonnage through the Southern Caucasus route can be maximised. This can be done by entering (through a searching process) the relevant data on the network

1 This type of exercise is directly issued and made possible from the Database



characteristics (transport supply), on the macro-economic aspects (transport demand) and on appropriate rate for costs and tariffs. At last, a bypass of Turkmenistan by the traffic to/from Central Asia countries with Europe (or West in general), that is to say by using the Northern route, inclusive of Aktau port, may have the direct result that the ferry: Poti-Illichev’sk could not be used any more for this specific traffic.


Module A


ANNEX A 10.1 1998 and 1999 FREIGHT ROUTES BETWEEN EUROPE AND CAUCASUS/CENTRAL ASIA

TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies-Module A_____________________________________________________________________________________________________FINAL REPORT

Minus Oil1998

TOTALCaucasus Turkmenistan Central Asia Poland Scandinavia/

BalticCentral Europe

Black Sea/Balkan

Europe (remaining) ROUTES Tonnage

Caucasus 210 374 1 458 11 485 882 14 663 181 886Turkmenistan 78 009 2 506 174 157 8 830 577 27 68 418 SOUTH 950 415Central Asia 3 038 431 179 935 629 794 294 678 97 395 1 836 629Poland 149 641 16 496 1 775 131 370Scandinavia/Baltic 320 147 53 922 2 031 264 194 Competition 3 677 280Central Europe 112 995 9 265 3 107 100 623 EXPORT 3 326 814Black Sea/Balkan 111 497 45 873 3 627 61 997Europe (remaining) 1 811 894 413 461 29 351 1 369 082 NORTH 1 205 293TOTAL 5 832 988 539 017 39 891 1 927 266 181 550 650 109 296 137 112 085 2 086 933

Coal

1998 TOTAL

Caucasus Turkmenistan Central Asia Poland Scandinavia/ Baltic

Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 2 315 SOUTH 1 146Central Asia 3 755 3 755Poland 1 146 1 146Scandinavia/Baltic 0 Competition 23Central Europe 0 EXPORT 3 755Black Sea/Balkan 1 146 1 146Europe (remaining) 23 23 NORTH 4 901TOTAL 6 070 0 0 2 315 0 3 755 0 0 0

Coke

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 117 053 SOUTH 4 959Central Asia 580 580Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 0 Competition 112 674Central Europe 0 EXPORT 580Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 117 053 4 959 112 094 NORTH 0TOTAL 117 633 0 4 959 112 094 0 0 0 0 580

Bauxite

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 7 SOUTH 0Central Asia 0Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 0 Competition 7Central Europe 0 EXPORT 0Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 7 7 NORTH 0TOTAL 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0

Other ores including salt

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 12 453 12 453Turkmenistan 0 244 829 SOUTH 76 018Central Asia 79 242 16 109 5 63 117 11Poland 3 733 3 733Scandinavia/Baltic 5 363 50 5 313 Competition 235 351Central Europe 0 EXPORT 91 695Black Sea/Balkan 330 330Europe (remaining) 235 403 88 30 235 285 NORTH 25 155TOTAL 336 524 138 30 244 661 16 109 0 5 75 570 11

IMPORT

IMPORT

1998 FREIGHT EXCHANGES BETWEEN EUROPE AND CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA BY ROUTES

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

August 2001 ANNEX A.10 (1)



Grain and Cereals

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 479 715 SOUTH 151 566Central Asia 295 713 8 411 200 935 2 500 83 867Poland 2 258 10 2 248Scandinavia/Baltic 38 783 25 132 13 651 Competition 398 617Central Europe 1 896 1 019 877 EXPORT 295 713Black Sea/Balkan 18 088 18 077 11Europe (remaining) 418 690 132 420 29 286 241 NORTH 225 245TOTAL 775 428 176 658 29 303 028 8 411 200 935 2 500 0 83 867

Fertilizers

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 8 777 8 777Turkmenistan 0 17 177 SOUTH 24 732Central Asia 8 8Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 52 52 Competition 1 178Central Europe 0 EXPORT 8 785Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 17 125 15 907 48 1 170 NORTH 52TOTAL 25 962 15 907 48 1 222 0 0 0 0 8 785

Chemical products

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 316 2 66 5 243Turkmenistan 140 127 418 89 51 SOUTH 30 805Central Asia 63 905 12 097 12 530 9 672 83 29 523Poland 2 695 434 31 2 230Scandinavia/Baltic 12 255 969 519 10 767 Competition 123 350Central Europe 1 109 164 15 930 EXPORT 64 361Black Sea/Balkan 11 923 5 605 51 6 267Europe (remaining) 99 436 13 802 3 963 81 671 NORTH 37 624TOTAL 191 779 20 974 4 579 101 865 12 099 12 596 9 761 88 29 817

Cement

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 2 506 20 2 486Turkmenistan 0 22 000 SOUTH 6 255Central Asia 476 238 238Poland 1 1Scandinavia/Baltic 17 989 123 17 866 Competition 622Central Europe 1 1 EXPORT 2 982Black Sea/Balkan 2 760 2 546 214Europe (remaining) 1 249 771 478 NORTH 18 105TOTAL 24 982 3 440 0 18 560 0 258 0 238 2 486

Other Construction materials

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 80 1 1 44 34Turkmenistan 0 65 356 SOUTH 19 957Central Asia 657 300 100 45 212Poland 1 487 809 678Scandinavia/Baltic 18 640 4 551 25 14 064 Competition 30 994Central Europe 4 224 389 3 835 EXPORT 737Black Sea/Balkan 7 639 1 066 1 052 5 521Europe (remaining) 33 366 9 971 1 025 22 370 NORTH 15 142TOTAL 66 093 16 786 2 102 46 468 301 101 0 89 246

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________




Scrap metal

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 137 438 688 136 750Turkmenistan 0 16 000 SOUTH 141 065Central Asia 34 485 20 893 2 223 161 11 208Poland 79 10 69Scandinavia/Baltic 8 162 216 7 946 Competition 17 950Central Europe 8 8 EXPORT 171 923Black Sea/Balkan 286 280 6Europe (remaining) 7 465 3 170 4 295 NORTH 28 908TOTAL 187 923 3 676 0 12 324 0 20 893 2 223 849 147 958

Other ferrous and non-ferrous metals

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 8 091 2 61 8 028Turkmenistan 971 145 701 971 SOUTH 98 782Central Asia 1 447 033 8 382 309 234 28 712 12 693 1 088 012Poland 1 215 325 890Scandinavia/Baltic 9 759 1 603 8 156 Competition 1 176 352Central Europe 5 592 43 5 549 EXPORT 1 456 095Black Sea/Balkan 3 043 1 283 1 760Europe (remaining) 126 092 73 616 2 52 474 NORTH 326 662TOTAL 1 601 796 76 870 2 68 829 8 382 309 236 28 712 12 754 1 097 011

Timber

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 21 21Turkmenistan 0 3 172 SOUTH 191Central Asia 131 78 53Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 208 120 88 Competition 3 045Central Europe 2 2 EXPORT 152Black Sea/Balkan 2 2Europe (remaining) 2 960 166 2 794 NORTH 88TOTAL 3 324 290 0 2 882 0 0 78 0 74

Wood and its wares

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 2 351 233 2 118Turkmenistan 0 14 775 SOUTH 4 184Central Asia 40 6 2 32Poland 1 997 435 1 562Scandinavia/Baltic 3 442 1 002 2 440 Competition 8 972Central Europe 474 3 471 EXPORT 2 391Black Sea/Balkan 659 20 25 614Europe (remaining) 8 203 716 20 7 467 NORTH 4 010TOTAL 17 166 2 176 45 12 554 6 2 0 233 2 150

Paper

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 28 1 3 24Turkmenistan 0 38 985 SOUTH 5 009Central Asia 237 222 8 6 1Poland 1 813 533 1 280Scandinavia/Baltic 16 564 1 018 47 15 499 Competition 17 232Central Europe 4 152 66 4 086 EXPORT 265Black Sea/Balkan 2 113 746 2 1 365Europe (remaining) 14 343 2 182 88 12 073 NORTH 17 009TOTAL 39 250 4 545 137 34 303 222 9 6 3 25

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________




Plastics and rubber

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 4 947 1 060 3 887Turkmenistan 0 48 079 SOUTH 15 682Central Asia 620 72 242 24 282Poland 7 014 444 6 570Scandinavia/Baltic 2 753 204 9 2 540 Competition 28 540Central Europe 4 652 363 60 4 229 EXPORT 5 567Black Sea/Balkan 2 072 408 21 1 643Europe (remaining) 31 588 8 175 681 22 732 NORTH 9 424TOTAL 53 646 9 594 771 37 714 72 1 302 24 0 4 169

Cotton

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 17 736 7 045 826 654 9 211Turkmenistan 72 511 62 8 814 63 697 SOUTH 87 687Central Asia 668 767 6 774 38 784 14 380 13 279 595 550Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 6 6 Competition 625 825Central Europe 6 6 EXPORT 759 014Black Sea/Balkan 3 3Europe (remaining) 47 17 30 NORTH 45 564TOTAL 759 076 20 0 42 6 774 54 643 15 206 13 933 668 458

Textiles and its wares

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 740 28 29 683Turkmenistan 3 272 10 021 157 488 20 2 607 SOUTH 11 772Central Asia 296 006 84 782 2 155 190 947 4 684 13 438Poland 285 173 112Scandinavia/Baltic 1 159 206 6 947 Competition 210 271Central Europe 634 5 13 616 EXPORT 300 018Black Sea/Balkan 889 177 14 698Europe (remaining) 7 054 1 990 34 5 030 NORTH 87 996TOTAL 310 039 2 551 67 7 403 84 939 2 183 191 435 4 733 16 728

Containers

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 16 435 SOUTH 983Central Asia 100 26 74Poland 171 171Scandinavia/Baltic 145 145 Competition 15 236Central Europe 17 17 EXPORT 100Black Sea/Balkan 910 910Europe (remaining) 15 192 47 15 145 NORTH 316TOTAL 16 535 0 47 16 388 0 0 0 26 74

Machinery and equipment

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 3 336 35 31 57 3 213Turkmenistan 0 104 448 SOUTH 37 541Central Asia 8 522 73 6 979 304 392 774Poland 1 716 296 2 1 418Scandinavia/Baltic 13 054 3 278 869 8 907 Competition 61 388Central Europe 5 828 633 128 5 067 EXPORT 11 858Black Sea/Balkan 4 174 1 268 371 2 535Europe (remaining) 79 676 22 307 6 304 51 065 NORTH 17 377TOTAL 116 306 27 782 7 674 68 992 108 7 010 304 449 3 987

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________




Products of animal origin

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 35 1 34Turkmenistan 1 114 120 1 SOUTH 35 377Central Asia 3 559 673 969 89 530 1 298Poland 3 730 2 095 1 635Scandinavia/Baltic 24 264 10 509 456 13 299 Competition 65 762Central Europe 4 376 1 830 39 2 507 EXPORT 3 595Black Sea/Balkan 3 714 2 330 1 384Europe (remaining) 78 036 24 103 3 031 50 902 NORTH 16 576TOTAL 117 715 40 867 3 526 69 727 673 970 89 530 1 333

Agriculture products

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 6 099 586 1 195 56 411 3 851Turkmenistan 1 114 116 014 16 7 1 091 SOUTH 22 694Central Asia 44 050 21 900 9 967 936 1 249 9 998Poland 46 817 675 195 45 947Scandinavia/Baltic 14 612 562 31 14 019 Competition 52 750Central Europe 8 792 8 792 EXPORT 51 263Black Sea/Balkan 11 017 2 536 1 8 480Europe (remaining) 34 776 3 113 443 31 220 NORTH 91 833TOTAL 167 277 6 886 670 108 458 22 486 11 178 992 1 667 14 940

Food stuff

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 5 063 834 2 003 24 2 202Turkmenistan 0 563 586 SOUTH 150 343Central Asia 32 667 4 939 22 694 2 907 705 1 422Poland 48 388 2 895 1 547 43 946Scandinavia/Baltic 105 976 3 796 63 102 117 Competition 277 277Central Europe 53 246 4 698 2 760 45 788 EXPORT 37 730Black Sea/Balkan 30 930 7 612 2 083 21 235Europe (remaining) 325 046 95 468 8 280 221 298 NORTH 173 696TOTAL 601 316 114 469 14 733 434 384 5 773 24 697 2 907 729 3 624

Manufactured Goods

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 357 32 1 324Turkmenistan 0 238 906 SOUTH 23 667Central Asia 57 878 15 195 309 41 895 193 286Poland 25 096 7 362 17 734Scandinavia/Baltic 26 961 583 6 26 372 Competition 213 864Central Europe 17 986 50 92 17 844 EXPORT 58 235Black Sea/Balkan 9 799 1 914 7 7 878Europe (remaining) 159 064 5 479 367 153 218 NORTH 59 610TOTAL 297 141 15 388 472 223 046 15 195 341 41 895 194 610

Oil Only1998

TOTALCaucasus Turkmenistan Central Asia Poland Scandinavia/


Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 1 775 355 120 841 1 654 514Turkmenistan 751 793 597 802 24 245 69 654 657 894 SOUTH 3 031 408Central Asia 5 451 109 24 017 839 659 7 243 11 611 4 568 579Poland 418 418Scandinavia/Baltic 62 332 5 431 3 695 53 206 Competition 4 627 351Central Europe 168 127 41 EXPORT 7 978 257Black Sea/Balkan 186 236 185 725 511Europe (remaining) 348 648 330 485 46 18 117 NORTH 917 300TOTAL 8 576 059 521 768 3 741 72 293 24 017 863 904 7 243 202 106 6 880 987

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________




Petroleum Products

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 467 969 229 662 13 036 30 163 424 770 SOUTH 641 793Central Asia 811 871 22 180 7 243 5 863 776 585Poland 38 38Scandinavia/Baltic 42 878 42 878 Competition 802 613Central Europe 41 41 EXPORT 1 279 840Black Sea/Balkan 75 62 13Europe (remaining) 186 630 180 922 5 708 NORTH 65 096TOTAL 1 509 502 180 984 0 48 678 0 35 216 7 243 36 026 1 201 355

Crude oil

1998 TOTAL


Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 1 775 355 120 841 1 654 514Turkmenistan 283 824 368 140 11 209 39 491 233 124 SOUTH 2 389 615Central Asia 4 639 238 24 017 817 479 5 748 3 791 994Poland 380 380Scandinavia/Baltic 19 454 5 431 3 695 10 328 Competition 3 824 738Central Europe 127 127 EXPORT 6 698 417Black Sea/Balkan 186 161 185 663 498Europe (remaining) 162 018 149 563 46 12 409 NORTH 852 204TOTAL 7 066 557 340 784 3 741 23 615 24 017 828 688 0 166 080 5 679 632

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________


TNREG9803-Traffic and Feasibility Studies-Module A_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

FINAL REPORT

Minus Oil1999

TOTAL Caucasus Turkmenistan Central Asia Poland Scandinavia/ Baltic

Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 356 602 2 230 38 895 504 31 265 283 708Turkmenistan 259 708 1 903 444 304 22 204 3 239 6 292 227 669 SOUTH 1 068 390Central Asia 2 679 313 29 119 655 751 45 365 39 802 1 909 276Poland 159 054 12 410 9 079 137 565Scandinavia/Baltic 234 177 18 327 5 916 209 934 Competition 3 098 308Central Europe 94 558 11 105 2 869 80 584 EXPORT 3 295 623Black Sea/Balkan 135 354 62 350 2 103 70 901Europe (remaining) 1 280 301 263 118 39 442 977 741 NORTH 1 032 369TOTAL 5 199 067 367 310 59 409 1 476 725 31 653 716 850 49 108 77 359 2 420 653

Coal

1999 TOTAL Caucasus Turkmenistan Central Asia Poland Scandinavia/


Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 14 SOUTH 5Central Asia 642 642Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 5 5 Competition 4Central Europe 0 EXPORT 642Black Sea/Balkan 5 5Europe (remaining) 4 4 NORTH 647TOTAL 656 0 0 14 0 642 0 0 0

Coke



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 86 742 SOUTH 3 855Central Asia 0Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 3 851 3 851 Competition 79 036Central Europe 0 EXPORT 0Black Sea/Balkan 3 851 3 851Europe (remaining) 79 040 4 79 036 NORTH 3 851TOTAL 86 742 0 4 86 738 0 0 0 0 0

Bauxite



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 0 SOUTH 0Central Asia 0Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 0 Competition 0Central Europe 0 EXPORT 0Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 0 NORTH 0TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other ores including salt



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 29 917 1 505 28 412Turkmenistan 0 45 086 SOUTH 36 387Central Asia 18 133 8 922 61 3 389 5 761Poland 27 090 27 090Scandinavia/Baltic 0 Competition 20 737Central Europe 0 EXPORT 48 050Black Sea/Balkan 893 893Europe (remaining) 17 103 2 188 14 915 NORTH 36 012TOTAL 93 136 2 188 0 42 898 8 922 0 61 4 894 34 173

IMPORT

IMPORT


IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________



FINAL REPORT


Grain and Cereals



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 0 325 250 SOUTH 102 298Central Asia 320 717 335 89 930 54 230 398Poland 268 51 62 155Scandinavia/Baltic 15 770 15 770 Competition 437 479Central Europe 2 722 1 506 134 1 082 EXPORT 320 717Black Sea/Balkan 41 803 39 029 2 774Europe (remaining) 264 687 58 629 59 205 999 NORTH 106 190TOTAL 645 967 99 215 255 225 780 335 89 930 0 54 230 398

Fertilizers



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 61 912 15 862 46 050Turkmenistan 0 3 452 SOUTH 64 589Central Asia 15 15Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 140 80 60 Competition 730Central Europe 0 EXPORT 61 927Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 3 312 672 2 005 635 NORTH 60TOTAL 65 379 672 2 085 695 0 0 0 15 862 46 065

Chemical products



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 11 238 164 544 63 730 9 737Turkmenistan 120 78 528 90 30 SOUTH 55 851Central Asia 78 360 1 700 8 947 27 271 1 863 38 579Poland 1 614 962 10 642Scandinavia/Baltic 6 546 788 424 5 334 Competition 95 772Central Europe 1 480 228 22 1 230 EXPORT 89 718Black Sea/Balkan 28 335 6 255 234 21 846Europe (remaining) 40 553 8 424 5 193 26 936 NORTH 16 623TOTAL 168 246 16 657 5 883 55 988 1 864 9 491 27 424 2 593 48 346

Cement



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 4 998 4 998Turkmenistan 0 18 124 SOUTH 6 805Central Asia 0Poland 137 39 98Scandinavia/Baltic 14 887 14 887 Competition 1 332Central Europe 1 1 EXPORT 4 998Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 3 099 1 756 11 1 332 NORTH 14 985TOTAL 23 122 1 796 11 16 317 0 0 0 0 4 998

Other Construction materials



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 50 527 1 3 50 523Turkmenistan 0 47 189 SOUTH 70 659Central Asia 444 120 147 108 69Poland 1 587 925 1 661Scandinavia/Baltic 12 918 97 129 12 692 Competition 13 881Central Europe 3 448 1 383 1 2 064 EXPORT 50 971Black Sea/Balkan 4 178 259 59 3 860Europe (remaining) 25 058 9 954 3 691 11 413 NORTH 13 620TOTAL 98 160 12 618 3 881 30 690 120 148 111 0 50 592

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________



FINAL REPORT


Scrap metal



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 107 646 934 8 310 98 402Turkmenistan 23 13 742 23 SOUTH 108 532Central Asia 72 570 275 45 223 60 27 012Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 7 909 13 7 896 Competition 32 055Central Europe 8 8 EXPORT 180 239Black Sea/Balkan 1 258 1 252 6Europe (remaining) 4 567 479 4 088 NORTH 53 394TOTAL 193 981 1 744 0 11 998 275 46 157 0 8 370 125 437

Other ferrous and non-ferrous metals



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 15 496 557 42 1 283 13 614Turkmenistan 0 56 722 SOUTH 40 261Central Asia 1 342 009 7 590 392 325 4 381 7 234 930 479Poland 1 379 215 1 164Scandinavia/Baltic 3 179 662 128 2 389 Competition 970 498Central Europe 2 472 191 2 281 EXPORT 1 357 505Black Sea/Balkan 2 721 703 2 018Europe (remaining) 46 971 14 868 93 32 010 NORTH 403 468TOTAL 1 414 227 16 639 221 39 862 7 590 392 882 4 423 8 517 944 093

Timber



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 5 213 8 1 499 3 706Turkmenistan 0 3 864 SOUTH 7 183Central Asia 80 80Poland 1 445 1 443 2Scandinavia/Baltic 140 120 20 Competition 1 952Central Europe 10 10 EXPORT 5 293Black Sea/Balkan 31 2 29Europe (remaining) 2 238 494 1 744 NORTH 22TOTAL 9 157 2 069 0 1 795 0 8 0 1 499 3 786

Wood and its wares



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 118 34 84Turkmenistan 0 13 108 SOUTH 1 196Central Asia 82 1 81Poland 4 608 4 608Scandinavia/Baltic 2 271 179 2 092 Competition 5 412Central Europe 298 18 280 EXPORT 200Black Sea/Balkan 224 47 8 169Europe (remaining) 5 707 683 153 4 871 NORTH 6 700TOTAL 13 308 909 179 12 020 0 0 1 34 165

Paper



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 60 1 1 58Turkmenistan 0 42 396 SOUTH 3 437Central Asia 15 9 6Poland 6 281 139 6 142Scandinavia/Baltic 17 013 342 135 16 536 Competition 16 347Central Europe 2 741 258 2 483 EXPORT 75Black Sea/Balkan 834 544 290Europe (remaining) 15 527 2 012 135 13 380 NORTH 22 687TOTAL 42 471 3 295 270 38 831 0 10 0 1 64

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________



FINAL REPORT


Plastics and rubber



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 31 010 30 656 18 336Turkmenistan 1 36 428 1 SOUTH 9 660Central Asia 1 992 1 1 12 40 1 938Poland 6 926 388 53 6 485Scandinavia/Baltic 1 546 82 30 1 434 Competition 51 850Central Europe 4 100 53 57 3 990 EXPORT 33 003Black Sea/Balkan 1 371 537 7 827Europe (remaining) 22 485 6 494 849 15 142 NORTH 7 921TOTAL 69 431 7 554 996 27 878 1 30 657 12 58 2 275

Cotton



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 13 298 186 1 150 11 962Turkmenistan 128 027 55 10 941 1 424 3 113 112 549 SOUTH 153 044Central Asia 762 899 2 974 74 201 12 546 23 809 649 369Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 6 6 Competition 674 054Central Europe 0 EXPORT 904 224Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 49 1 48 NORTH 77 181TOTAL 904 279 1 0 54 3 160 86 292 13 970 26 922 773 880

Textiles and its wares



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 932 80 6 13 833Turkmenistan 130 097 10 658 304 11 250 1 714 3 179 113 650 SOUTH 126 305Central Asia 12 546 198 2 101 123 2 038 8 086Poland 233 181 52Scandinavia/Baltic 814 290 98 426 Competition 25 151Central Europe 646 9 44 593 EXPORT 143 575Black Sea/Balkan 926 167 759Europe (remaining) 8 039 3 230 104 4 705 NORTH 2 777TOTAL 154 233 3 877 246 6 535 582 13 357 1 837 5 230 122 569

Containers



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 4 254 4 SOUTH 311Central Asia 126 5 53 68Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 0 Competition 68Central Europe 0 EXPORT 130Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 254 254 NORTH 5TOTAL 384 0 254 0 0 5 4 53 68

Machinery and equipment



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 3 902 4 21 1 83 3 793Turkmenistan 9 116 174 6 3 SOUTH 32 661Central Asia 15 719 71 12 921 374 176 2 177Poland 3 401 301 45 3 055Scandinavia/Baltic 11 286 4 826 291 6 169 Competition 80 927Central Europe 3 961 368 438 3 155 EXPORT 19 630Black Sea/Balkan 3 713 441 137 3 135Europe (remaining) 93 813 18 328 5 402 70 083 NORTH 22 216TOTAL 135 804 24 264 6 313 85 597 75 12 942 381 259 5 973

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________



FINAL REPORT


Products of animal origin



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 48 14 34Turkmenistan 0 99 962 SOUTH 32 450Central Asia 2 151 545 1 327 2 60 217Poland 3 843 2 405 117 1 321Scandinavia/Baltic 23 382 5 164 1 768 16 450 Competition 50 068Central Europe 5 896 3 010 514 2 372 EXPORT 2 199Black Sea/Balkan 4 582 3 329 201 1 052Europe (remaining) 62 259 18 614 3 100 40 545 NORTH 19 643TOTAL 102 161 32 522 5 700 61 740 559 1 327 2 60 251

Agriculture products



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 11 728 1 339 1 386 376 424 8 203Turkmenistan 1 400 56 312 13 1 387 SOUTH 24 727Central Asia 21 506 12 844 78 415 8 169Poland 10 128 40 62 10 026Scandinavia/Baltic 580 222 17 341 Competition 43 008Central Europe 3 086 1 135 2 950 EXPORT 34 634Black Sea/Balkan 4 583 4 287 89 207Europe (remaining) 37 935 6 550 1 212 30 173 NORTH 23 211TOTAL 90 946 11 100 1 515 43 697 1 339 14 243 454 839 17 759

Food stuff



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 8 091 443 3 608 19 1 397 2 624Turkmenistan 0 528 515 SOUTH 170 275Central Asia 17 200 430 13 866 232 2 672Poland 59 293 1 169 8 444 49 680Scandinavia/Baltic 97 831 5 112 2 729 89 990 Competition 229 565Central Europe 45 676 3 811 1 294 40 571 EXPORT 25 291Black Sea/Balkan 29 678 3 885 1 319 24 474Europe (remaining) 296 037 105 029 16 135 174 873 NORTH 153 966TOTAL 553 806 119 006 29 921 379 588 873 17 474 19 1 629 5 296

Manufactured Goods



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 468 23 106 339Turkmenistan 27 320 869 1 26 SOUTH 17 899Central Asia 12 107 5 958 1 262 408 379 4 100Poland 30 821 4 152 285 26 384Scandinavia/Baltic 14 103 430 87 13 586 Competition 268 382Central Europe 18 013 276 212 17 525 EXPORT 12 602Black Sea/Balkan 6 368 1 613 49 4 706Europe (remaining) 251 564 4 713 1 042 245 809 NORTH 47 190TOTAL 333 471 11 184 1 675 308 010 5 958 1 285 409 485 4 465

Oil Only1999

TOTAL Caucasus Turkmenistan Central Asia Poland Scandinavia/ Baltic

Central Europe

Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 4 312 088 120 35 248 4 276 720Turkmenistan 766 198 326 512 39 045 4 492 722 661 SOUTH 5 342 345Central Asia 7 355 524 1 009 418 1 113 868 4 991 10 324 5 216 923Poland 284 284Scandinavia/Baltic 20 820 20 820 Competition 5 273 587Central Europe 936 912 24 EXPORT 12 433 810Black Sea/Balkan 110 876 110 564 312Europe (remaining) 193 596 179 922 1 070 12 604 NORTH 2 144 390TOTAL 12 760 322 291 398 1 070 34 044 1 009 538 1 152 913 4 991 50 064 10 216 304

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________



FINAL REPORT


Petroleum Products



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 0Turkmenistan 13 605 0 9 403 20 4 182 SOUTH 4 202Central Asia 700 388 90 869 4 991 604 528Poland 0Scandinavia/Baltic 0 Competition 618 922Central Europe 0 EXPORT 713 993Black Sea/Balkan 0Europe (remaining) 0 NORTH 90 869TOTAL 713 993 0 0 0 0 100 272 4 991 20 608 710

Crude oil



Black Sea/Balkan


Caucasus 4 312 088 120 35 248 4 276 720Turkmenistan 752 593 326 512 29 642 4 472 718 479 SOUTH 5 338 143Central Asia 6 655 136 1 009 418 1 022 999 10 324 4 612 395Poland 284 284Scandinavia/Baltic 20 820 20 820 Competition 4 654 665Central Europe 936 912 24 EXPORT 11 719 817Black Sea/Balkan 110 876 110 564 312Europe (remaining) 193 596 179 922 1 070 12 604 NORTH 2 053 521TOTAL 12 046 329 291 398 1 070 34 044 1 009 538 1 052 641 0 50 044 9 607 594

IMPORT

IMPORT

BCEOM__________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Module A


A 11 Web Site

http://www.traceca.org/traffic



1.1. WEB - ORGANISATION AND OPERATIONAL STRUCTURE

Due to the amount of data and system complexity, the traffic database and forecasting model require an efficient functional and organisational structure to enable proper processing and management. The system involves two main user profiles, an operating mechanism and some funding principles as follows:

• The Regional Administrator has the maximum rights: that is to say to create, update and delete. He is also in charge of managing the other users: declaration of users, access rights and possibilities given to each users of carrying safeguard operation, of updating reference tables and of intervening in case of failure to reinitialise the system (restoration, reorganisation, supervision of the system).

The Administration will be functioning within the framework of TRACECA-Inter-Governmental Joint Commission (IGC) through the new contemplated “TRACECA Co-ordination Unit” (CU). This latter project has the general objective to increase the exchange of information and data between member states and to develop cohesion between activities of current projects and the TRACECA Permanent Secretariat and the TRACECA National Commissions.

Among other, the “TRACECA Co-ordination Unit” will be in charge of maintaining the existing TRACECA Website and the specific one regarding the Traffic Database and traffic forecasting model: <www.traceca.org/traffic>. The Administrator is located in Baku (location of the Permanent Secretariat of the TRACECA-IGC). He will define the working links and procedures to be applied with each of the three geographical areas: Eastern Europe, Caucasian countries, Central Asia.

• Local Co-ordinators will operate at the national level. They are local experts, having been involved several times in the data collection of the database for previous years. They can access the local database and the main database. The main database will be accessible only in consultation mode, because update and creation mode require consistency, made possible only at the regional level (by TRACECA-CU).

Local Co-ordinators and equipment will be located at the Beneficiary premises in each country where the equipment has been fixed. They are also able to work directly with/for local policy and decision makers. The local operational staff is composed of experts in charge of collecting specified data from data providers (Customs, Statistical Institutions, Transport Agencies. etc.) and of proceeding to update the tables of reference, as well as of sending data to Regional Office in Baku. The data collection campaign should take place once in a year. It is recommended to make the system operating under a co-financed (TRACECA and local beneficiaries) system, at least during the next two years, for which the Project web site is installed (database and forecasting model).

• Users, any from the Web, such as staff from the Transport Associations, Customs, Universities may be granted access -by the Regional Administrator- in consultation mode.

The following scheme summarised the operating functioning of the system:



distant accessto TRACECA data base

updates

Baku

Traffic Database Webpageshosted within the main

TRACECA Website(www.Traceca.org/traffic)

DataProviders

LocalCoordinator:

Database

Data requests

TrafficData

NetworkData

updates EconomicData

ForecastingSoftware

National LevelMinistries of Transport(Cabinet of Ministers)

updates

Regional Level: TRACECA - IGC

Sending data bymail or disquettes

TRACECACoordination - UnitMaintain TRACECA

Website andTraffic Database

ForecastingSoftware

TRACECAWEBSITE

TrafficData

NetworkData

EconomicData

distant accessto TRACECA data base

In Russian

Traffic and Feasibility Studies-TNREG 9803 A study project contracted between the Tacis Services of the European Commission and BCEOM, French Engineering Consultant

Home Download the database Download the Model Ask for your password Link to the general TRACECA website To contact us

The Project objective is to set up a planning instrument to

develop and to support transport infrastructure projects

within their economical environment identified through the

corresponding appropriate and relevant socio-economy and

trade characteristics in ten TRACECA countries, located along

the Black Sea, in Caucasus and in Central Asia.

The Outputs of the TRACECA Traffic Project consist of:

! a database made up of sets of easy access statistical

"Excel" tables covering the past and existing economic

and traffic situation in TRACECA countries

! a traffic forecasting model, made up of software using

the data tables as working information support and

designed to predict multi-modal traffic.

This information can be downloaded, with restricted access

for certain countries.

Home | Database | Model | Password | General TRACECA website | To contact us

Last update 31th August 2001

© 2001 - TRACECA

Page 1 sur 1TRACECA Traffic Project

20/01/2002file://D:\~doc-informat\Client\traceca\traffic\index.html

In Russian

Traffic Forecasting Model


The purpose of the Model is to predict, by the year 2012 or

so, the future transport flows on the transport infrastructure

network covering 10 TRACECA countries. It visualises the

traffic loads on every link of the transport network: rail,

road, port, ferry, maritime, while usual Excel tables provide

the details. The Model is computer friendly in order to easily

adjust the parameters of the future transport demand and

supply, under a true planning process.

This Model (software and data) can be downloaded (16 MB)

freely but with a password because of restricted access for

information from certain countries. Ask for your password.

Zoom 800X568 1024X744

An Operating Manual is provided. It still can be downloaded

separately.

An utility help you to get on line corrections of the software

and of the data, including data for next years.

The database can be downloaded separately as .xls files for

Excel.

Computer requirements To run the Model, after downloading the software programmes, it is recommended for the future user to possess an IBM compatible PC with:

! 500 MHz processor-Pentium III

! 4 Gb Hard Drive

! 128/256 Mb RAM

! Windows 98/2000 operating system

! MS Office preferably with "XP" version (English).

Manual In English In Russian

.doc file for Word 6.75 MB 7.89 MB

.pdf file for Acrobat Reader 0.6 MB 0.8 MB



© 2001 - TRACECA

Page 1 sur 1Traffic Forecasting Model

20/01/2002file://D:\~doc-informat\Client\traceca\traffic\model.html

In Russian

Ask for your password


Qualified specialists, organisations or students can ask for a

free password, to download the full TRAFFIC FORECASTING

MODEL, updates or information from certain countries.

Please, provide the following contact information (red fields

are requested). We will send you by email a username and

a password within two working days.

Ms Mrs.

nmlkj

nmlkji

Firstname Name

Organisation City

Country E-mail

Your message

SEND



© 2001 - TRACECA

Page 1 sur 1Ask for your password

20/01/2002file://D:\~doc-informat\Client\traceca\traffic\password.html

Published August 2001

Copyright © 2001 by Tacis services DG IA, European Commission.

Enquiries concerning reproduction should be sent to the Tacis Information Office

European Commission, Aarlenstraat 88 1/06 Rue d’Arlon, B-1040 Brussels.

This Report has been prepared by BCEOM. The findings, conclusions and interpretations expressed in this document are those of BCEOM alone and should in no way be taken to reflect the policies or opinions of the European Commission.

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TRACECA ORG